Aldridge: Robinson vs. Beal
Looking at what David Aldridge has gotten from sources, how do you think the league feels about the two prospects?
Beal:
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Most of the time, a two guard who shoots 44 percent, and 34 percent from 3-point range isn't viewed as a major pro prospect. And many times, a player who's reluctant to shoot in college is deemed not tough enough to play at the next level.
But Beal, the freshman guard from Florida who announced he would be eligible for the Draft, appears to be the exception.
Beal, who finished second on the Gators in scoring last season, is the choice of just about every pro scout and evaluator I've spoken with, and there isn't one of them who believes he won't be taken in the top five or higher in June's Draft.
"I'm not comparing him to Ray (Allen), but he's the best I've seen since Ray in terms of being able to catch and shoot," said an official from a Southeast Division team -- who, indeed, just compared the 6-foot-3 Beal to Allen, the NBA's all-time leader in 3-pointers.
If Beal is that good a shooter, he'll strenghten any team's roster. He'd be a great fit playing next to John Wall in Washington, or Kemba Walker in Charlotte, or Kyrie Irving in Cleveland. He would be a solid first piece of a rebuilding effort in Portland -- which has the Nets' first-round pick after the Gerald Wallace trade, a top-three protected choice for New Jersey -- or in New Orleans.
"He has a chance to be really good," said a Central Division personnel man. "Super high-character guy, too. He can do a lot more than he's shown. Works his tail off. Just all of the things you want. He's like the flavor of the month."
Said a Northwest Division scout: "He's not tall, but he's big and thick and strong. He has a lot of poise to him. I think he has upside. He didn't have an elite shooting year, but it'll get better. His stroke is good. It's just a matter of taking more shots and making them."
The only uncertainty about Beal comes from his deportment during his one year in Gainesville.
Beal played alongside upperclassmen Erving Walker, the Gators' senior point guard, and junior guard Kenny Boynton, who led Florida in scoring. With two guards that dominated the ball, Beal would often defer.
"The one thing that hindered him was Boynton and Walker were chuckers," said a Southwest Division scout. "I saw him against Arizona and I wanted Bradley to get (ticked): 'Why don't y'all pass the ball?' But he stayed in his lane. If Bradley had played with a better point guard, he probably would have had better numbers."
Beal's numbers do not blow one out of the water. He finished tied for eighth in the SEC in scoring and 13th in 3-pointers made. His player efficiency rating was not in the top 100 in ESPN.com analyst John Hollinger's rankings of college players.
"I like Beal," said a college coach whose team played Florida this past season, "but for some reason he didn't shoot the ball well. The shot looks good, though. I think he has a good feel for (the) game. Athletic, but didn't seem aggressive enough at times."
But in the NBA, Beal's size should be sufficient to play shooting guard. He is strong and physical, and was a very good rebounder for his position -- though one veteran scout cautions that Beal's board work at Florida (6.7 rpg) came, in part, because he was a de facto forward for the Gators playing with two small guards.
"I think he can guard people," the Northwest scout said. "He's really, really strong, very physical. I think he takes it personally. He wants to guard. And if you're going to play for Billy (Donovan) you have to have some of that in you."
Robinson:
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It won't take long for the next power forward to join Davis shaking Commissioner David Stern's hand. Kansas' Robinson got a slight nod among personnel types over Ohio State's Sullinger, but the difference is tiny. Either could go in the top five, depending on who's doing the picking and what they need.
"Robinson's next," said a veteran Western Conference scout whose team won't be picking high enough to take him. "He's probably a more aggressive player. Although Sullinger can step out and shoot the jump shot, whereas Thomas really can't. But if you're looking at the playoffs, you're looking at guys like (Memphis') Dante Cunningham, and (the Clippers') Reggie Evans, those forwards who change the game because they play so hard and they're aggressive and they can rebound. Robinson can do that."
Robinson, whose average of 11.8 rebounds was second in the country last season to O.D. Anosike of Siena, averaged a double-double in getting the Jayhawks to the national championship game. Scouts across the board compared Robinson to Nuggets rookie big Kenneth Faried in terms of the energy and effort he brings to games -- Faried's motor is a little stronger, though his motor is stronger than just about everyone's -- while Robinson's skill level is higher.
Robinson did some posting at Kansas, but he scored most of his points off of cuts, running the floor and energy plays.
"He's not a David West type of guy," a Western Conference general manager said. "He's more a high energy guy. He could be anywhere from a Faried to a young Horace Grant. Like most young guys, he'll get in foul trouble early (on defense) and figure it out by year two or three. He's a physical specimen, now. When you look at his build, he's body beautiful."
At least early in his career, scouts believe, Robinson will have to adjust from being a go-to guy at Kansas to a contributor in the pros, as most college players have to do.
"He'd have to develop into that" go-to guy, another Western Conference GM said. "Right now I would put him more in the mold of a more energetic [Charles] Oakley type-just rebounding, active, be in every play, maybe an enforcer a little bit. Could he be a go-to guy? It would depend on the team, and expectations. Knock on wood, I think he's going to succeed because of his great desire to play."
Offensively, Robinson will need to extend his perimeter game to the foul line and elbows, scouts believe, because he won't have the length inside to consistently be effective.
"I'm not expecting him to measure out as a power forward guy," an Eastern Conference general manager said, "but there's so many small fours playing in the league. He's going to have to get a little better on his jump shot, but his jump shot isn't horrible. It's not broken. But he's going to have to work on that. He isn't [Blake] Griffin, but this kid is gifted. He's an NBA athlete all the way."
The comparisons are what jump out at me most. But I'll let you provide the commentary.