https://defpen.com/new-orleans-pelic...e-masterpiece/
Pretty good article here on the defensive potential of the Pelicans this upcoming season. Obviously, we've all talked about how amazing we could be defensively, but this article lays it all out pretty clearly. I think it makes a few mistakes (it implies near the end of the article that we don't have enough shooters and might struggle to score, which is funny because we have 3 proven NBA 40%+ shooters, are adding another Euroleague 40%+ shooter, a college career 38% shooter, and were able to score without shooting last season anyway) but its defensive analysis is pretty good. Here's a few excerpts:
''It all starts in the backcourt, where The Big Easy may harbor the most fearsome defensive guard duo in the entire league. Jrue Holiday, the only remaining piece from the previous regime, has taken his game to a whole new level in the past two years, on both sides of the ball. He has featured on All-Defensive squads in both seasons, and has quickly become known as one of the hardest shooting guards to score on. [...]
Joining him in the backcourt will be Lonzo Ball. Despite coming under a mountain of criticism for his offensive shortcomings, there is little to be debated about the zeal in which he defends. Ball finished the season third among all guards in defensive player impact plus/minus, outranking lockdown specialists like Pat Beverley, Marcus Smart, and Eric Bledsoe in one of the most reliable defensive metrics around.''
''Brandon Ingram took steps toward stardom on both ends of the floor last season, particularly defensively. He isn’t at the level of some of his starting five counterparts, but if Ingram, with his long limbs and his ability to stay in front of guards or forwards, is your weakest link, things are looking scary.''
''While Ball, Holiday, and Ingram all have seam-bursting potential, the hype they provide isn’t even the same stratosphere as Zion Williamson. The first selection in this year’s draft, Williamson’s blend of size, strength, and unfathomable athleticism has captivated the attention of every hoops fan there is.
A devastating force on the offensive end, Williamson might be just as impactful on defense. With his marriage of size and nimbleness, the 6-foot-7, 285 lb giant will be able to guard any position on the floor effectively. [...] he will rip schemes asunder with his versatility. His ability to rocket into passing lanes and burst onto the fast break will also give opposing coaches the sweats.''
''Rounding out what is an already daunting starting unit is Derrick Favors. Playing next to the Stifle Tower Rudy Gobert suppressed his ability to individually shine on defense, but he still managed to post the highest defensive box plus/minus of his career, while ranking fourth among all power forwards in defensive real plus/minus. [...]The big man also defends exceptionally in space, making him even more dangerous.''
Reading that makes it sound like our starting lineup is basically a defensive superhero squad. Which is awesome. It's great that non-Pelicans media is writing up articles about our franchise that begin and end with COMPLIMENTS.
The Pelicans: Defensive Masterminds?
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07-16-2019, 06:55 PMPelicanidaeThe Pelicans: Defensive Masterminds?
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07-16-2019, 07:59 PMbahmamambayeah I'm not worried about offense in the least. I mean we were scoring like crazy with basically just jrue and gleaguers. the beat thing I think for the defense and that'll make even better all 5 can switch if they have too and still be really goodQuote:
Originally Posted by Pelicanidae
Sent from my SM-S903VL using Tapatalk -
07-16-2019, 10:25 PMPolishFan
Championship? How soon?
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07-16-2019, 10:33 PMTaker597
Feel like an ALL defense line up for next year would be pretty dope when the lead is 10+ to smother teams.
Lonzo
Jrue
Zion
Favors
Hayes
The problem is... we need to get a 10+ lead in the first place. -
07-16-2019, 10:47 PMPelicanidaeI don't feel like that lineup will ever really touch the floor. If/when Hayes gets on the floor, it will probably be as part of ''smaller'' lineups that are running on offense, lots of lobs and dunks and stuff. Hayes won't be on the floor, at least early, in moments where defense is at a premium because although he has so much potential on that end, he'll still be foul prone.Quote:
Originally Posted by Taker597
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07-16-2019, 10:54 PMbigfanfromaus
We just watched Hayes get subbed off the SL team for defensive possessions. He’s a got a lot to learn, obviously! He’s so young.
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07-16-2019, 11:21 PMAs I See ItQuote:
Originally Posted by Taker597
Hayes is not ready for Prime Time...not even close. His ceiling is off the charts, but he needs considerable grooming before he will be ready to play in the NBA. Consider.........
…. He has started less than 60 games in his career (one year of high school; one year of college). In fact he may have the least amount of organized basketball experience of any lottery pick in NBA history.
…. He is a skinny teenager that could never take the pounding of grown men in the NBA. He needs a nutritionist and a personal trainer to sculpt his body so he can endure the NBA thrashing he will be made to endure for a six month season.
…. He needs to have an individual coach assigned exclusively to him. He has athleticism few 6'11'' players in the league could match...but he has to learn the game.
…. Don't let his awe-inspiring defensive plays in summer league fool you. He was often out of position defensively only to recover in time to make up for his blunders, This may cut it against many of the 'no-names' of summer, but I seriously doubt that it translates into the regular season against legitimate NBA competition.
I truly think the young man would benefit by playing 35 minutes a night in Erie rather than 10 minutes here and there in New Orleans. Worse yet, a 'DNP - Coaches Decision' in the box score would not serve the young man's development at all. -
07-16-2019, 11:40 PMTaker597I SAID NEXT YEAR AS IN NEXT SEASON.Quote:
Originally Posted by As I See It
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07-16-2019, 11:42 PMPelicanidaeI've heard that if you mention Hayes three times in a mirror, As I See It turns up to tell you that he needs to play 500 games in the G League and should be shot on sight if he tries to enter the SKC before he weighs 260lbs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Taker597
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07-16-2019, 11:56 PMAs I See ItQuote:
Originally Posted by Pelicanidae
Played ya?
Look, Mr. Know It All, I tried to be friendly with you, but your desire to prove superior only exacerbates your inferiority complex.
Oh, of course the answer to my question is, "Of course I did"
Cheerio, Mate!!! -
07-17-2019, 12:09 AMPelicanidaeI don't even know what this means.Quote:
Originally Posted by As I See It
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07-17-2019, 12:12 AMAs I See ItQuote:
Originally Posted by Pelicanidae
Ignorance is Bliss. And once again......
"OF COURSE I DID". -
07-17-2019, 12:17 AMPelicanidaeWhatever helps you sleep at night, buddy :hihi:Quote:
Originally Posted by As I See It
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07-17-2019, 01:53 AMluckyman?? Both Favors and Okafor are about as true big men as they come. Especially today.Quote:
The 6-foot-10 height and strong frame are the first things that stand out with Favors, and it will likely be the most important part of a Pelicans unit that lacks a true big man.
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07-17-2019, 10:11 AMPelicanidaeYeah, I assume that the article is just working from the fact that he played power forward for Utah, and therefore taking from that the idea that Favors isn't a true 5. That's wrong, obviously, and like I said in the OP, the article does have a few issues.Quote:
Originally Posted by luckyman
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07-17-2019, 11:43 AM6warddude
we was a top 4 offense last season and i still believe that the team stop playing defense because they knew AD was going to ask to be traded and players was just getting theirs on offense....
this team should be a top 7 offense....if everyone buy into the new defensive scheme and put the effort in playing defense then i believe we are in the playoffs...ill take the 8th seed... -
07-17-2019, 12:01 PMPelicanidaeI can see the offense being a little less effective this year. Regardless of what we think about AD leaving, he was 29 highly efficient points a night that just fell off the team. Yes, we gained a lot of new pieces, but it will probably take a little time for them to fit into the offense fully, and it's unlikely that anyone (even Zion) has the individual gravity as an offensive player that AD had. On the other hand, with more tools, the offense should be more versatile, with multiple different angles of attack. As a result, I could see the offense going either way depending on exactly how things pan out.Quote:
Originally Posted by 6warddude
The defense is a similar thing. We have a lot more defensive ability on the team than last year, but at the same time, defense is one of those things where it really helps if the team has chemistry and experience playing together. I wouldn't be surprised or worried if the defense started off a little slow with so many new pieces and then came together over the course of the first two or three months. -
07-17-2019, 12:53 PMpelicanchampI think we are going to be pleasantly surprised. 4 main things that I think could really happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelicanidae
1. Zion blows us away. I think people are underestimating him. Seriously. They say that he’s overhyped, out of shape, too short, etc. some people even think he’s a bust. I bet he kind of shocks the league. I don’t think he will hesitate or be afraid. He may be inconsistent at the beginning, particularly with shooting, but sooner than later I think we are going to be ecstatic on this forum mostly over Zion.
2. Jrue actually takes it to a totally different level. I think this is the main plan. Can he elevate his game even more? What do you think? I think he could improve still improve his 3 point shooting just a little bit more. Get to the line more and facilitate just fine. My hope is he is more clutch and I see him taking a few more shots and being an all star possibly.
Something like:
24ppg, 4.5 rpg, 7.6apg, 2.2spg, 1.2bpg. With AD leaving this really is Jrue’s team. Maybe this won’t be his statline and that’s fine. I just see him closer to being more of a true star now.
3. Favors gives other bigs a lot of problems. Meaning, I think he can pair with superstar Zion and suffocate other bigs. Boogie and AD will have a hard time against Favors and Zion. For many reasons. This is what I believe, look at advance stats on Favors. Wow! I don’t know if I like Boogie over him tbh. The main thing with Favors is he’s still young and hasn’t been in the Gentry system. A system that will probably give him more fga and fta. He’s going to get a lot of minutes and the guy is a really good big man who I think could wind up being pivotal in the Pels getting in the playoffs. If he gets 30-35 mpg he’s going to probably surprise fans. Both him and Zion are great offensive rebounders and this is really good news.
4. NAW. I really don’t know when it will happen but I believe eventually he’s going to be able to masterfully run the offense for 13-16mpg. His shooting and defense alone could be a problem against NBA guys. I trust this kid. Put him on the court. If he comes close to being as good as his cousin SGA then we got a big steal in the draft. I’m keeping my eyes on this kid because he’s got it. It’s obvious. Now let’s see him go up against the best of the best.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk -
07-17-2019, 12:55 PM6warddudeQuote:
Originally Posted by Pelicanidae
i get the AD leaving part but we added alot by subtracting him......im going off of this is the type of offense the players like and have played in before and adjusting should not be a problem....now i think favors is the only player that has to adjust to this style but i think he will have a breakout season here....offense is gentry thing so he will use a rotation that get the points he want that he thinks will win us games.......
now defense i am worried about because i believe we are going with a new scheme to where we will battle for offensive rebounds more instead of everyone getting back on defense..am i right about this?.....
offense mostly be on point at the start of the season so im hoping we are clicking on offense to where we are in the race and defense take over in the next months to make us better.... -
07-17-2019, 02:34 PMAs I See ItQuote:
Originally Posted by 6warddude
IMO Good offensive is a product of scheme and will not manifest itself until the players acclimate themselves collectively into a scheme (unless your name is James Harden and you play in the Rockets' 'get out of my way' offensive approach). It requires familiarity, trust, and buy in. Four new players and good offense on the court for game one are mutually exclusive. It will take time for them to gel offensively.
Defense, on the other hand is mostly intuitive. If you are a good defensive player...you are good defensive player...period. It requires a 'want to' desire to 'break' your match up night in and not out All five of my projected starters for the Pelicans have excelled defensively in the past (short as some of those careers might be), so I suspect the defense will be far ahead of the offense on opening day.
BOTTOM LINE: The defense will be well ahead of the team's offense at the start of the season and should be.
SIDE NOTE: If by mid-year, BI doesn't commit to New Orleans, he's outta' here. As David Griffin has said, "You're either all in...or you are out". Griffin will not lose BI without some kind of recompense, -
07-17-2019, 03:39 PM6warddudeQuote:
Originally Posted by As I See It
if the defense is solid at the start of the season and improve then we are a 5-8 playoff seed imo.....
if ingram dont commit to us around that time,, you looking at a miller,,ingram and moore trade to fill that position?.....we would need to find 2 SF in trades to start and backup....damn... -
07-17-2019, 04:01 PMAs I See ItQuote:
Originally Posted by 6warddude
Two possibilities (one remote) reside in Boston.
Jayson Tatum's contract has a club option attached to it at the end of the upcoming season. Could they be interested in Ingram over Tatum? Statistically, they are synonymous.
Also, Gordon Haywood's contract has a player option attached to it at the end of year (a 31MM contract will be hard for him to walk around from).
NOTE: Watch for the possibility of Kelly Oubre Jr coming home to New Orleans at some point. -
07-17-2019, 06:02 PMGuardianAngel25
You play 2 ways in basketball. This is a huge reason I was super high on Ingram that many ignored. He was given the task of guarding the best wing each night while Lebron did nothing. Ingrams defense was very good last season and before Lonzo got hurt which impacted Ingram he was looking elite as a defender. Once he adds some strength he will be even more versatile switching in some bigs. With the players like Jrue/Ball/Zion around him next season he will flourish on defense. Lonzo was another player I had as a future all star because he is a 2 way defender and arguably the best defensive guard in the NBA. The Lakers were so active and looked dominant defensively most of the time before Lonzos injury. Having Lonzo and Jrue stopping the point of attack is going to give teams a lot of trouble. We hands down have the best defensive backcourt and with Ingram/Zion I would say the best starring defensive unit in the NBA.
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07-18-2019, 09:11 AMPELICANSFANNot sure about that. He just signed a new deal and was rumored to have been a big issue in the locker room in Washington. We do not need that if it is true.Quote:
Originally Posted by As I See It
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07-18-2019, 10:36 AMPelicanidaeNot really gonna talk about points 3 and 4 because I pretty much just agree with those.Quote:
Originally Posted by pelicanchamp
With Zion, I think you have to have realistic expectations, and consider historical context. I've said before that I think if Zion reaches his full potential, he's top 5 all time. Nobody needs to convince me that he can be a mega-star :hihi: I've watched him play enough at college and I've checked the stats. If he puts the work in, which I think he will, he'll be an all time great. But you also can't expect that from him immediately, because no matter how great he is in three, four, five years, he might start off slow and if you expect superstar in year one you're asking to be disappointed. Just using AD as an example: this year, before the trade request, he was averaging 29/13/4. That's an all time great season in the making. AD's rookie year though was 13/8/1.
Now, I do think Zion will have a better rookie year than that because his offensive game is already much more developed than AD's was coming out of college, but what I'm saying is, please don't set your expectations too high. I predicted that Zion will probably average 18/9/3 in his rookie year, on 50% shooting elsewhere. That kinda looks disappointing, to some: no double double? Blake averaged 22/12 his rookie year, why not that? Well, this is where the historical context comes up. How many rookies in the past have averaged at least 18/9/3 on 50%+ shooting? One, rookie Chris Webber. That's it. If Zion puts up 18/9/3 on 50% shooting, he'll be hitting elite rookie benchmarks. It just won't be as flashy as someone like Doncic averaging 21 points a game.
The second point, I agree that Jrue can take another leap. I'm not worried about him being more clutch: obviously last season fell apart, but the season before that Jrue finished top 10 in the league in clutch scoring and top 5 in clutch FG%. He's clutch. I also think he'll improve his 3 point shooting this year. Last season, after AD's trade request, Jrue took more threes a game (7, up from 5.4) and his efficiency on them increased up to 36.5% on those attempts. If he can keep that 36.5-37% shooting, that would really help him out, and I believe he can do it: back when he was in Philly, he shot 37.4% across his four years, so we know he has the touch. -
07-22-2019, 01:40 PMPelicanidae
https://www.thebirdwrites.com/2019/7...nd-carmelo-538
New article up on The Bird Writes about our defensive potential next season.
There's a few issues I have with it (the estimations are based almost entire on 538's new DRAYMOND metric, which has a bunch of issues*) but overall the statistics they've used seem to back up the claim that we may well have a top 10 defense even if we only reach half of our team's potential.
Here's the real verdict given at the end of the article: ''Ball believes that this could be one of the best defensive teams in the league, and FiveThirtyEight seems to agree. Whether it is by DRAYMOND, CARMELO or DPM, this Pelicans roster appears to have a balance of established production and tangible potential that bodes well for the year to come. Their total expected DPM, which estimates the minutes that will be given to each player, pegs this group for the seventh-best mark in the league (+2.4). If they can match or surpass that, they may find themselves back in the postseason a lot sooner than expected.''
*Issues with DRAYMOND include the fact that big men inherently contest more shots due to proximity to the rim, so the system therefore biases towards big men. It also doesn't account for the quality of the shot being taken or the quality of the shooter, nor does it account for non-tangible defensive elements, such as screen setting, boxing out, denial of position, rhythm disruption, help defense, etc. It's a very flawed metric which can definitely be useful, because no metric is perfect, but should not be used as your only judgement of defense.