On swapping for Lakers' draft spot...

I may be wrong, but sounding like any 1st round 2024 draft spot pretty much doubled in value...with the end of "one & done" apparently finally arriving that year. Could tip the scales toward putting off on swapping with Lakers until 2024...assuming they don't completely fall apart, this year.

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Originally Posted by The Dud

I may be wrong, but sounding like any 1st round 2024 draft spot pretty much doubled in value...with the end of "one & done" apparently finally arriving that year. Could tip the scales toward putting off on swapping with Lakers until 2024...assuming they don't completely fall apart, this year.

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That's not how it works. 2023 we have swap rights. 2024 we have their pick outright, but we could choose to delay it to 2025.

Thanks...then, it sounds like 2024 might be the year to take the Lakers pick...if the "one & done" really does end that year.

I have always found that pick fascinating, and think that decision could be a harder one to make than most think

I mean, say it lands 12th and its a double draft, do you just take it? 16th?

Because the value isnt just in the pick, its in having the pick to trade too. If you take it in 2024, then you have a player to trade come the Feb 2025 trade deadline, and we know those are almost always less valuable than the value of a pick who is still unknown.

But if you decline the pick in 2024, the Lakers now KNOW they are giving their 2025 pick away, so they will have no reason to lose games/will try everything to be good. Where, perhaps with the 2024 pick, they will want to just rid themselves of the obligation so they might not try to win every single game if things are already going bad.

Its so interesting to me, and I really wonder what the cut off would be where you definitely take it, vs roll the dice on next year and also have a pick to trade as opposed to a player

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I have always found that pick fascinating, and think that decision could be a harder one to make than most think

I mean, say it lands 12th and its a double draft, do you just take it? 16th?

Because the value isnt just in the pick, its in having the pick to trade too. If you take it in 2024, then you have a player to trade come the Feb 2025 trade deadline, and we know those are almost always less valuable than the value of a pick who is still unknown.

But if you decline the pick in 2024, the Lakers now KNOW they are giving their 2025 pick away, so they will have no reason to lose games/will try everything to be good. Where, perhaps with the 2024 pick, they will want to just rid themselves of the obligation so they might not try to win every single game if things are already going bad.

Its so interesting to me, and I really wonder what the cut off would be where you definitely take it, vs roll the dice on next year and also have a pick to trade as opposed to a player

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I got kinda dizzy just thinking about the options. BTW: When, exactly...do the Pels have to make their decision on whether to take the 24 or the 25 Lakers pick? Off the top of my head...I think a 12th pick on a double draft is a definite "take"...after about pick 16 or so...I start to get dizzy again.

Its usually within a week or so after the draft lottery. They will absolutely know what the 2024 pick is before they have to decide

Assuming you're still here...just a quick curious question. At the moment, would you trade Herb straight up...for Bridges? For the sake of conversation, let's assume they were the same age and the money was the same.

Which Bridges? Phoenix one? Of course.

I love Herb, and feel I was one of the first on the bandwagon, but now I feel like the expectations are overblown. I have seen people talking Iggy or something close. I know Pels management gave him a trade equivalent of a top, tier star. Their logic is contract + production made him nearly as valuable as a superstar on the max. Which I think is insane.

He is a nice player with some room for growth, but I will bet anything that we will see a lot of posts in the next 2-3 years about how disappointing Herb was on a given night, week, month, season. Not because he gets worse, but because the expectations have grown. I think that him becoming the 2020s Horry would be amazing, but something closer to Tony Allen overall impact wise is more likely. Which is fine, I will take it, but if I had a chance to sell high like that, I would in an instant

Herb will improve defensively this year, imo. Be hard not to do so...given the knowledge he will have accrued against the guys he will be guarding night in and night out and the normal added "respect" that will come from officials, after his rookie season. On the respect, I always think of Kawhi in his rookie year, when he couldn't even get close to LeBron without drawing a foul and then, after his rookie year...it seemed like LeBron couldn't get far enough away...from Kawhi.

The key for Herb, of course, will be his offensive development, or lack thereof. Herb has always been a weird dude and a very late bloomer. I think his increased handling of the ball this year...will surprise many people. He'll have to start from square one...offensively...but the guy has a way of making things happen. We shall see

You can go the other way too and say teams will go into this season aware of Herb's good on ball D (he is actually a little below average off ball IMO - gets caught watching a lot). And when you consider the Pels other bad defensive options, teams can easily run stuff to ensure their top options wont have Herb on them, thereby limiting his defensive impact. And then if he shoots more like post AS break Herb, he is a net negative on offense with low impact on D. Thats possible, just as your projection is possible.

I want the super optimistic Herb people to be right, but if I had to bet, I would bet his peak trade value is right now. Because, while he might get 5-8% better, he will get paid 1500% more soon enough

Pretty much agree on trade value...from the $$ angle. Herb was indeed a bit weak off-ball in the 1st half of the year but I thought he actually improved in that aspect in the 2nd half of the season. Suns proved your point on avoiding Herb during the playoff series, when they were seemingly content to just sacrifice Booker to keep Herb out of the picture...and just let CP3 abuse the pitiful defense we had left...while Herb stood at the 3-pt line with Booker.

Shooting? I'm gonna try not to get started again on what I thought Herb shot from 3-pt distance last year, as opposed to what nearly all others think he shot.

Bottom line...I don't think the Pels are worried anymore (and I'd bet they WERE, at some point) about Herb turning into a "Thybulle", who is indeed, a net negative on offense which makes the 76ers unsure if they even want the guy on their team.

I can see it go several ways. We can all pretend we know the future, but none of us do. I just play the odds and the most likely, and history says he is likely to be pretty close to his peak already, despite it only being his 2nd year. Guys usually get a lot better because their athleticism starts high and their IQ then catches up. The guy who starts year 1 with the IQ is far less likely to make the big leaps we see from most guys in years 2, 3, 4, etc. He isnt going to get more athletic/explosive. But maybe he becomes a Draymond, and maybe he does get more respect from the refs, etc like Draymond did - and his IQ becomes even better and more valuable and his is a unique generational defender who plays an important role on offense. All possible, I just tend to go safe and place my bets on whats most likely

First thing...I meant to mention regarding the "avoiding Herb" problem we will likely face in the future, we need DESPERATELY to find another SOLID wing defender to step up and assist Herb when that problem rears its' ugly head. Hoping you agree that DD is gonna be the answer to that problem.

Herb is definitely fairly close to his peak as a defender already, but there is still room for a bit more upside, given his work ethic. And since I already have him in the top 2 as far as defenders given today's NBA "game", I'm totally content with that.

The players that fascinate me the most, for this coming year, are Trey and DD. If they can develope as I hope they can, gonna be an interesting Pels team to watch. And if Herb can get off that 3-pt line & show the ability to handle the PG? position...like Oats thought he could at Bama...all bets are off...the sky is the limit.

I think Trey, DD, and how these last Lakers picks fall are the key to this franchise ceiling. At least one of those have to become a top 40-50ish player for any real chance at being a contender.

Which is why I am hesitant to trade for a Bogdanovic type, even if they help win a few more games this year. I would make it a mandate that Willie play Trey over 1500 minutes this year and DD over 1200. And I would not give him players that will risk that objective

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I think Trey, DD, and how these last Lakers picks fall are the key to this franchise ceiling. At least one of those have to become a top 40-50ish player for any real chance at being a contender.

Which is why I am hesitant to trade for a Bogdanovic type, even if they help win a few more games this year. I would make it a mandate that Willie play Trey over 1500 minutes this year and DD over 1200. And I would not give him players that will risk that objective

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Totally Agree!! Those two have got to get significant minutes this year.

Also, I would limit Zion's workload until he we see how well his legs hold up and I would limit CJ's minutes early in the season for his sake, too. The only players I would play 32+ minutes early on are BI and Herb. As the season unfolds the numbers could be adjusted to facilitate more Zion and CJ as warranted.

I would also limit Zion's workload so he doesnt get All NBA. I wont hate if he gets it but I'd be happy saving those couple million every year while we are up against or in the tax

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I would also limit Zion's workload so he doesnt get All NBA. I wont hate if he gets it but I'd be happy saving those couple million every year while we are up against or in the tax

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Point taken....and shrewd!!

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I would also limit Zion's workload so he doesnt get All NBA. I wont hate if he gets it but I'd be happy saving those couple million every year while we are up against or in the tax

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If I was Zion and I got wind of the idea that the team was purposefully limiting my ceiling, purposefully trying to engineer a worse season for me (that's not necessarily true but it's how a player is likely to view it, trying to deny them all NBA honours), and potentially even make the team worse depending on how lineups with him fare, I'd be fuming. If there was even a hint of suspicion of that going on it would not be good for a locker room.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

If I was Zion and I got wind of the idea that the team was purposefully limiting my ceiling, purposefully trying to engineer a worse season for me (that's not necessarily true but it's how a player is likely to view it, trying to deny them all NBA honours), and potentially even make the team worse depending on how lineups with him fare, I'd be fuming. If there was even a hint of suspicion of that going on it would not be good for a locker room.

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Agree. If they want to do that, it better not be evident. We have a hard enough time keeping star players. If we play dirty with their contracts, it will be even harder.

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

Agree. If they want to do that, it better not be evident. We have a hard enough time keeping star players. If we play dirty with their contracts, it will be even harder.

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The way I see it is fairly simple; if he's playing well enough to get the All NBA spot at those extremely competitive forward spots, then he's worth paying the extra money anyway. Don't try and get cute with top 20 players.

We just held our ankles for 15 years to faciltate another 'superstar' in the other Airline Drive Sports Complex with just one title, but, at the same time, a litany of personal records to show for it. During that player's run, countless players were lost to free agency and the team was 'gutted' to allow for 'The Chosen'.

I'm all about what's best for the collective whole and protecting players from their staunchest enemy...themselves. In Zion's case, he has played 85 basketball games at the highest competitive level on the planet during the last three years (well less than half of his team's games) and hasn't played competitive basketball in well over a year. He has been injurred every year dating back to his senior year of high school (2017). Management would be derelict in their responsibility to the organization and to Zion if they just threw him out there and said, "no matter what, big guy, you will get 35 minutes a night beginning with game one".

I would say it would be more of an added benefit not an objective. He should be playing 30-32 mpg and have 6-8 scheduled games off regardless.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I would say it would be more of an added benefit not an objective. He should be playing 30-32 mpg and have 6-8 scheduled games off regardless.

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I agree for the most part. I don't mind if the mpg creeps up a bit over 32 but it shouldn't be over 35 by any means, and I think 6-8 rest games is fairly standard for any star or would-be star these days, for better or worse.

I don't think that actually holds him back from all NBA status myself - I personally think he should have been 3rd team the last season he played - but if it does then that's just coincidental. That's fine. Its if the team was doing it with the objective of preventing that, that could be disastrous.

I don't want to trade any of the Lakers picks. We need cheap contracts moving forward. We're already paying Zion, BI, and CJ a ton. We only have Herb under contract for this year and next. He's gonna wanna get paid and rightfully so. The next year it will be Trey's turn to get paid, and we all think he's gonna make a leap.

Let's keep adding young, cheap players with massive upside with these Lakers picks. The 2023 swap will be valuable. The Lakers suck. And then we'll see if we wanna defer in 2024 to 2025.

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Originally Posted by Upper Decker

I don't want to trade any of the Lakers picks. We need cheap contracts moving forward. We're already paying Zion, BI, and CJ a ton. We only have Herb under contract for this year and next. He's gonna wanna get paid and rightfully so. The next year it will be Trey's turn to get paid, and we all think he's gonna make a leap.

Let's keep adding young, cheap players with massive upside with these Lakers picks. The 2023 swap will be valuable. The Lakers suck. And then we'll see if we wanna defer in 2024 to 2025.

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On the Lakers 2024 or 2025 pick option, assuming high school kids can choose NBA option in 2024...the more I think about it, it's obvious the double draft in 2024 will make that the route we almost MUST take. Because no matter where the Lakers' slot is for 2024...it is actually twice as good as it first appears to be. If it's an 8 slot, it actually translates to what is a normal 4 slot, given the added talent available to be picked. If it's a 16 slot, it's actually an 8 slot...etc...Gonna be really hard to come up with a scenario, whereby we turn down that 2024 slot from the Lakers...assuming those wild & crazy high school kids come rolling into the NBA in 2024.

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Originally Posted by The Dud

On the Lakers 2024 or 2025 pick option, assuming high school kids can choose NBA option in 2024...the more I think about it, it's obvious the double draft in 2024 will make that the route we almost MUST take. Because no matter where the Lakers' slot is for 2024...it is actually twice as good as it first appears to be. If it's an 8 slot, it actually translates to what is a normal 4 slot, given the added talent available to be picked. If it's a 16 slot, it's actually an 8 slot...etc...Gonna be really hard to come up with a scenario, whereby we turn down that 2024 slot from the Lakers...assuming those wild & crazy high school kids come rolling into the NBA in 2024.

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The good thing is if the "double draft" gets delayed a year due to negotiations, we have the option to wait.

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

The good thing is if the "double draft" gets delayed a year due to negotiations, we have the option to wait.

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For sure and good point. But, I just can't believe the NBA is floating this "end of one & done" out there, unless it's a done deal. Individual teams MUST be told what the situation will be...so they can adjust their future trading...accordingly, and they MUST know when this "double draft" will actually arrive. Gotta feelin' all NBA teams have been informed it's coming in 2024...but then...I've been wrong before, so who knows.

Does LeBron retiring play a factor in this?

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Originally Posted by coreylaron

Does LeBron retiring play a factor in this?

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Don't see that as a factor where we're concerned. LJ has 2 more years with Lakers, then who knows what he does with Bronny arriving in the NBA for 2024-25 season. I assume we'll take the Lakers' 2024 draft pick if it is a double draft as most think it will be. If 2024 is not a double draft for some reason...all bets are off...as we might well decide to take the Lakers' 2025 draft slot...because there is no tellin' where Lebron will end up playing the 2024-25 season...along with Bronny. Lakers could have a total meltdown in 2024-25...if Lebron takes his (And Bronny's) talent elsewhere. Then, that draft slot could end up being a very tasty one indeed.

But...I could be totally wrong about everything...and I'm starting to get dizzy again...just thinking about it.

Am I crazy to imagine a world where Herb develops into a poor man's Kawhi? It's more likely he tops out as a better version of Bruce Bowen though, I am am aware.

Crazy? No

A fan who has bias and wants that to happen, so sees it as far more likely than a non fan would? Yes

Here’s my thing on Herb —- does anyone believe he is a starter on this team in two years? I mean, if Trey or Daniels (or both) hit anything close to their ceiling, I don’t see how he is. And my fear is that his contract comes up and he sees himself as a starter and his basketball reference page says he is a starter, but he simply won’t be on the best version of this team IMO.

He will be a great guy to stagger when Zion is out but their fit together on offense will be clumsy at best. Trey will easily be a better fit on that end and eventually will be 90 plus percent of Herb on the other end. I think Herb and Jonas are the most likely regression candidates this year, not because they will actually be worse players in a vacuum but because you are inserting a very specific type of player into a high usage role and they won’t fit as well with him in there as they will in lineups without him

While things are slow, I have a quick question that folks may want to ignore but here goes. Have to make a fairly significant wager next week on the following scenario, so please, any opinions would be very appreciated.

When the NBA finally does away with "one & done", if you take the top 30 recruits that year coming out of high school based on rankings of 247 Composite...how many of those kids will choose to bypass college & one way or the other, pursue a career with the NBA ? Argument got started with ...how big an effect (affect?) will the end of one & done have on the college game, recruiting wise? Ended with agreement by all 5 of my crew to throw a decent sum of money in a pile...and winner takes all. Closest to right number takes the cheese. Just a thought experiment...but I'm guessing some of you folks enjoy those things. I have pretty much decided on my own "number" but there may be some angle I haven't thought of so...feel free to think...or overthink (as some of you folks are subject to do) and give me your opinions. Please...serious answers only...MONEY IS INVOLVED !!!

My current opinion is...25...which should be just about all the 5* rated recruits coming out of high school that year.

Way less than that. Now…if you are asking “how many will go pro” I believe 25 could be the right number. But I would say 10-15 enter the draft. I think what we will see is more and more leagues offering bigger dollars and an opportunity to showcase themselves for an even higher spot in the draft

So, a guy who is projected in the 20s in a mock could go pro and likely get a nice little guaranteed deal or could go take one million to play in say the G League or in Europe, etc and bet on himself that he will show out and be a top 5-10 pick the next year. I think more people than you will believe will go that route

The bet we have is...how many of the top 30 rated recruits will NOT attend college. We tried to keep it simple.

By the way, another quickie...is there much of a chance a 3rd 2-way contract will be OK'd by the NBA before the one & done is ended? I think I'll probably be the high man on our "guesses"...so a 3rd 2-way for each team, couldn't hurt my chances.

If that is the exact language of the bet, I think that answer will be around 25 about 2 or 3 years after the rule changes

Herb probably isn’t starting but he could be in the finishing 5. Dyson-Zion-Ingram-Herb-Trey is awesome. Obviously can’t do that against every team but I hope that’s our “death lineup” in a few years. I’m also of the mind that JV isn’t here after his contract (if not sooner) and we sign a C for around the MLE.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Here’s my thing on Herb —- does anyone believe he is a starter on this team in two years? I mean, if Trey or Daniels (or both) hit anything close to their ceiling, I don’t see how he is. And my fear is that his contract comes up and he sees himself as a starter and his basketball reference page says he is a starter, but he simply won’t be on the best version of this team IMO.

He will be a great guy to stagger when Zion is out but their fit together on offense will be clumsy at best. Trey will easily be a better fit on that end and eventually will be 90 plus percent of Herb on the other end. I think Herb and Jonas are the most likely regression candidates this year, not because they will actually be worse players in a vacuum but because you are inserting a very specific type of player into a high usage role and they won’t fit as well with him in there as they will in lineups without him

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Interesting take...think I'll just pass on this one other than to say...if Trey is 90 plus percent of Herb on the defensive end, the Pels are gonna be in pretty good shape.