What is Most Needed Against the REAL Contenders?

We look at the season as a whole a lot -- How many games will we win? How many points will Zion average? Can Trey Murphy win MIP?

At the end of the day, it all comes down to the playoffs and matching up against the best of the best. When you look at those teams, and those teams only -- what is the biggest thing we are missing to really compete head to head with the teams who can possibly come out of the West. Personally, I only see 4 teams that can come out of the West. A lot of good teams, but winning 3 playoff series is a different beast. To me, the only teams I think can do it are: Golden State, Dallas, Denver, and the Clippers, with Golden State and LA being the most likely, Denver next, and Dallas the one long shot just because they have the guy most capable of going young Lebron vs the Pistons and winning a series on his own against a superior team. With that in mind, I ask myself: What would the Pels need to be able to matchup up better against those teams?

Warriors -- Jonas would be a major liability in this series. Sure, he could dominate the offensive glass for stretches, but he would be hunted endlessly and would be a major net negative. So, this is a Nance series, with Trey possibly finishing games too. And no, you are not looking for a guy to "cover" Steph, because whoever defends him comes off him due to all the screens they run him through. Though I will say that Jose could be useful as a Delladova type pest who just wears Steph down. What you would need in this series is even more switchable length, but you cant sacrifice rebounding, as that is where Wiggins really helped in the Finals last year. If I had to try and construct a team to beat GS, I would go get Alec Burks and Diallo from Detroit for Graham and Temple (and probably a late 1st). Burks is a good shooter, but also a better defender than most realize. Diallo is another energy guy you can throw in Games 3, 4, and 5 of the series for 10 minutes to show a different look and pester their perimeter guys.

Clippers - I think Jonas could actually play quite a bit in the series. Can match Zubac's minutes, and then pull him when the Clippers go to their 5 wings lineup. What the Pels would need here is some shooting to space the floor and keep Zion from having to go through 5 long wings on his way to the basket. But the shooter can't be a major liability on D, otherwise he will be hunted by Kawhi and PG. Again, I like Burks here, but the ideal guy to me is Harrison Barnes. Vet experience and has the length and strength to take some possessions against Kawhi. When Clips finish with their 5 perimeter, switching wings, Pels can finish with CJ-BI-Barnes-Zion and either Herb or Trey. They could win that battle at end of games if its Zion at the rim vs. Kawhi from 18 feet

Nuggets - This is the toughest one to me because the Nuggets are a team that plays as greater than the sum of their parts when all is clicking. The easy take here is you need someone to defend Jokic, but that guy doesnt exist. I actually go the other way and defend him straight up and let him get 40 while I lock in on the other guys, kind of like how the Spurs used to play the Suns. I think the key in this series would be having multiple people to throw at Murray so he doesn't get hot. Herb can check him, but I think he shoots over Jose and is too quick for Trey, and too savvy for young Dyson. I would go out and try to get someone like Josh Richardson here. A guy who can spell Herb and knock down 3's when open.

Mavericks - This one is simple to me. You just need as many long arms as possible to clog passing lanes and close out on shooters when Luka gets into the teeth of the defense. Like Jokic, he really kills you when he is both scoring and dishing out to open shooters, so I would stay at home a ton. I would also go under all screens and live with Luka shooting 33% from behind the arc. But what I really want to do is hard hedge like we did vs Portland a few years ago and that requires mobile bigs. I got one in Nance. Maybe I got another in Hayes if he matures this season, but I am not going to rely on that, so I would go get one more. Once their season starts going down the drain, I call up the Knicks, as Thibs refuses to play the young dudes and I steal Jericho Sims off their bench (he is now their 3rd string center). He is insanely raw and can't hit a FT, but for 15 minutes per game, he can trap and hard hedge vs Luka and recover with insane length and athleticism. If I want more of a vet, I call up the Spurs for Zach Collins and hope he stays healthy.

The common denominator seems to be length, switchability, and shooting, which is not a big surprise. Leads me to believe that the major X Factors for this season are Trey and Nance. They play fantastic, the Pels can match up with anyone. If not, you need to go out and get at least one more guy who can give you all that

The league has a recent history of giving most improved to super high draft picks (see BI and Morant)

I strongly believe the Most Improved criteria needs huge reform. I would exclude all Lottery Picks, and top 10 minimum.

Top 2 MIP were easily Poole and Bane last season, but I digress

Anyway,

I don't see Trey getting MIP unless he wildly exceeds all expectations (Antonio Daniels pre-season opinions should not be ingested as not biased). Not coz he has an agenda, though.

THATS what you took away from the post? LMAO

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

THATS what you took away from the post? LMAO

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Well, we've recently had a forum on what Pels best case scenario is.

Which is not dissimilar from what you're portending (portending means something momentous)

Your first point of contention here was Trey winning MIP

I decided to drive left, when most favour their dominant hand

https://y.yarn.co/5c6316ea-b3e5-4785...db39f_text.gif

OK...first the Warriors. We CANNOT waste Herb on Curry!! Being a small market team...We gotta get blood out of every turnip we've got. So, thinking outside the box, I'm putting Herb on Draymond to try & negate the strength of his "screening game". Doubt he would be setting many screens for Curry...so Curry can come around them to go one on one vs Herb. So, Herb would be free to pretty much roam the court & help where needed, and just leave Draymond open at the 3-pt line. I realize the Warriors would try & make adjustments and there are many other "things" that would pop up if we did this but...I'd definitely try this during the regular season just to see how GS would react...worth a shot. Just gotta get them out of their normal "comfy" offensive game...SOMEHOW !!

Val needs to take a "load management" break, whenever we play these guys, for sure.

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Originally Posted by The Dud

OK...first the Warriors. We CANNOT waste Herb on Curry!! Being a small market team...We gotta get blood out of every turnip we've got. So, thinking outside the box, I'm putting Herb on Draymond to try & negate the strength of his "screening game". Doubt he would be setting many screens for Curry...so Curry can come around them to go one on one vs Herb. So, Herb would be free to pretty much roam the court & help where needed, and just leave Draymond open at the 3-pt line. I realize the Warriors would try & make adjustments and there are many other "things" that would pop up if we did this but...I'd definitely try this during the regular season just to see how GS would react...worth a shot. Just gotta get them out of their normal "comfy" offensive game...SOMEHOW !!

Val needs to take a "load management" break, whenever we play these guys, for sure.

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Team defense is also a huge thing. And Herb is at his best as a roaming tight end

You sound either like you're gonna explode or go kill that bish

Jonas is a net negative in the playoffs period. True centers no longer win championships. Nance is our playoff center next to Zion. We should lock Nance into a reasonable contract before he becomes pricey if/when he looks good in the playoffs.

The true wildcard is the development of Trey as a dependable 3 and D 6th man. I think his role and of course overall health of the team will determine how far this team goes.

You arent winning 4 playoff series with Nance playing 30mpg. You need all kinds of bigs to get through 4 rounds. In some series Looney will help, in others he wont play. I think back to the Spurs where Tiago Splitter was key in the WCF and unplayable in the Finals. You gotta do center by comittee in the playoffs and then hopefully close without a center

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

You arent winning 4 playoff series with Nance playing 30mpg. You need all kinds of bigs to get through 4 rounds. In some series Looney will help, in others he wont play. I think back to the Spurs where Tiago Splitter was key in the WCF and unplayable in the Finals. You gotta do center by comittee in the playoffs and then hopefully close without a center

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Duncan is a nice committee to have

And we got Zion :)

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

We look at the season as a whole a lot -- How many games will we win? How many points will Zion average? Can Trey Murphy win MIP?

At the end of the day, it all comes down to the playoffs and matching up against the best of the best. When you look at those teams, and those teams only -- what is the biggest thing we are missing to really compete head to head with the teams who can possibly come out of the West. Personally, I only see 4 teams that can come out of the West. A lot of good teams, but winning 3 playoff series is a different beast. To me, the only teams I think can do it are: Golden State, Dallas, Denver, and the Clippers, with Golden State and LA being the most likely, Denver next, and Dallas the one long shot just because they have the guy most capable of going young Lebron vs the Pistons and winning a series on his own against a superior team. With that in mind, I ask myself: What would the Pels need to be able to matchup up better against those teams?

Warriors -- Jonas would be a major liability in this series. Sure, he could dominate the offensive glass for stretches, but he would be hunted endlessly and would be a major net negative. So, this is a Nance series, with Trey possibly finishing games too. And no, you are not looking for a guy to "cover" Steph, because whoever defends him comes off him due to all the screens they run him through. Though I will say that Jose could be useful as a Delladova type pest who just wears Steph down. What you would need in this series is even more switchable length, but you cant sacrifice rebounding, as that is where Wiggins really helped in the Finals last year. If I had to try and construct a team to beat GS, I would go get Alec Burks and Diallo from Detroit for Graham and Temple (and probably a late 1st). Burks is a good shooter, but also a better defender than most realize. Diallo is another energy guy you can throw in Games 3, 4, and 5 of the series for 10 minutes to show a different look and pester their perimeter guys.

Clippers - I think Jonas could actually play quite a bit in the series. Can match Zubac's minutes, and then pull him when the Clippers go to their 5 wings lineup. What the Pels would need here is some shooting to space the floor and keep Zion from having to go through 5 long wings on his way to the basket. But the shooter can't be a major liability on D, otherwise he will be hunted by Kawhi and PG. Again, I like Burks here, but the ideal guy to me is Harrison Barnes. Vet experience and has the length and strength to take some possessions against Kawhi. When Clips finish with their 5 perimeter, switching wings, Pels can finish with CJ-BI-Barnes-Zion and either Herb or Trey. They could win that battle at end of games if its Zion at the rim vs. Kawhi from 18 feet

Nuggets - This is the toughest one to me because the Nuggets are a team that plays as greater than the sum of their parts when all is clicking. The easy take here is you need someone to defend Jokic, but that guy doesnt exist. I actually go the other way and defend him straight up and let him get 40 while I lock in on the other guys, kind of like how the Spurs used to play the Suns. I think the key in this series would be having multiple people to throw at Murray so he doesn't get hot. Herb can check him, but I think he shoots over Jose and is too quick for Trey, and too savvy for young Dyson. I would go out and try to get someone like Josh Richardson here. A guy who can spell Herb and knock down 3's when open.

Mavericks - This one is simple to me. You just need as many long arms as possible to clog passing lanes and close out on shooters when Luka gets into the teeth of the defense. Like Jokic, he really kills you when he is both scoring and dishing out to open shooters, so I would stay at home a ton. I would also go under all screens and live with Luka shooting 33% from behind the arc. But what I really want to do is hard hedge like we did vs Portland a few years ago and that requires mobile bigs. I got one in Nance. Maybe I got another in Hayes if he matures this season, but I am not going to rely on that, so I would go get one more. Once their season starts going down the drain, I call up the Knicks, as Thibs refuses to play the young dudes and I steal Jericho Sims off their bench (he is now their 3rd string center). He is insanely raw and can't hit a FT, but for 15 minutes per game, he can trap and hard hedge vs Luka and recover with insane length and athleticism. If I want more of a vet, I call up the Spurs for Zach Collins and hope he stays healthy.

The common denominator seems to be length, switchability, and shooting, which is not a big surprise. Leads me to believe that the major X Factors for this season are Trey and Nance. They play fantastic, the Pels can match up with anyone. If not, you need to go out and get at least one more guy who can give you all that

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It's Harrison Barnes for me. The guy can shoot, has high IQ and can guard 3-5.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

We look at the season as a whole a lot -- How many games will we win? How many points will Zion average? Can Trey Murphy win MIP?

At the end of the day, it all comes down to the playoffs and matching up against the best of the best. When you look at those teams, and those teams only -- what is the biggest thing we are missing to really compete head to head with the teams who can possibly come out of the West. Personally, I only see 4 teams that can come out of the West. A lot of good teams, but winning 3 playoff series is a different beast. To me, the only teams I think can do it are: Golden State, Dallas, Denver, and the Clippers, with Golden State and LA being the most likely, Denver next, and Dallas the one long shot just because they have the guy most capable of going young Lebron vs the Pistons and winning a series on his own against a superior team. With that in mind, I ask myself: What would the Pels need to be able to matchup up better against those teams?

Warriors -- Jonas would be a major liability in this series. Sure, he could dominate the offensive glass for stretches, but he would be hunted endlessly and would be a major net negative. So, this is a Nance series, with Trey possibly finishing games too. And no, you are not looking for a guy to "cover" Steph, because whoever defends him comes off him due to all the screens they run him through. Though I will say that Jose could be useful as a Delladova type pest who just wears Steph down. What you would need in this series is even more switchable length, but you cant sacrifice rebounding, as that is where Wiggins really helped in the Finals last year. If I had to try and construct a team to beat GS, I would go get Alec Burks and Diallo from Detroit for Graham and Temple (and probably a late 1st). Burks is a good shooter, but also a better defender than most realize. Diallo is another energy guy you can throw in Games 3, 4, and 5 of the series for 10 minutes to show a different look and pester their perimeter guys.

Clippers - I think Jonas could actually play quite a bit in the series. Can match Zubac's minutes, and then pull him when the Clippers go to their 5 wings lineup. What the Pels would need here is some shooting to space the floor and keep Zion from having to go through 5 long wings on his way to the basket. But the shooter can't be a major liability on D, otherwise he will be hunted by Kawhi and PG. Again, I like Burks here, but the ideal guy to me is Harrison Barnes. Vet experience and has the length and strength to take some possessions against Kawhi. When Clips finish with their 5 perimeter, switching wings, Pels can finish with CJ-BI-Barnes-Zion and either Herb or Trey. They could win that battle at end of games if its Zion at the rim vs. Kawhi from 18 feet

Nuggets - This is the toughest one to me because the Nuggets are a team that plays as greater than the sum of their parts when all is clicking. The easy take here is you need someone to defend Jokic, but that guy doesnt exist. I actually go the other way and defend him straight up and let him get 40 while I lock in on the other guys, kind of like how the Spurs used to play the Suns. I think the key in this series would be having multiple people to throw at Murray so he doesn't get hot. Herb can check him, but I think he shoots over Jose and is too quick for Trey, and too savvy for young Dyson. I would go out and try to get someone like Josh Richardson here. A guy who can spell Herb and knock down 3's when open.

Mavericks - This one is simple to me. You just need as many long arms as possible to clog passing lanes and close out on shooters when Luka gets into the teeth of the defense. Like Jokic, he really kills you when he is both scoring and dishing out to open shooters, so I would stay at home a ton. I would also go under all screens and live with Luka shooting 33% from behind the arc. But what I really want to do is hard hedge like we did vs Portland a few years ago and that requires mobile bigs. I got one in Nance. Maybe I got another in Hayes if he matures this season, but I am not going to rely on that, so I would go get one more. Once their season starts going down the drain, I call up the Knicks, as Thibs refuses to play the young dudes and I steal Jericho Sims off their bench (he is now their 3rd string center). He is insanely raw and can't hit a FT, but for 15 minutes per game, he can trap and hard hedge vs Luka and recover with insane length and athleticism. If I want more of a vet, I call up the Spurs for Zach Collins and hope he stays healthy.

The common denominator seems to be length, switchability, and shooting, which is not a big surprise. Leads me to believe that the major X Factors for this season are Trey and Nance. They play fantastic, the Pels can match up with anyone. If not, you need to go out and get at least one more guy who can give you all that

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I don't think defense will be a glaring issue with most of the teams. Come playoff time, everyone is pretty dialed in defensively. Jonas is the only weakness I see.

In my opinion the question is whether we can generate enough points because we will be shooting so many less threes. Opposing defense will lock up and Zion will not be able to score as easily. We will become more stagnant faster.

Warriors saw their scoring drop significantly in the playoffs and won the title. Everyone has trouble scoring (relatively) in the playoffs. The great teams get enough stops to offset that. This team needs a physical defensive guy. Herb is sticky and rangy, but I am talking about a PJ Tucker type physical force. An enforcer, a guy who wears players down by leaning on them, being physical, etc.

We need another playoff caliber big.

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Originally Posted by Taker597

We need another playoff caliber big.

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Rob Williams it is

Chuck dem chips in

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

You arent winning 4 playoff series with Nance playing 30mpg. You need all kinds of bigs to get through 4 rounds. In some series Looney will help, in others he wont play. I think back to the Spurs where Tiago Splitter was key in the WCF and unplayable in the Finals. You gotta do center by comittee in the playoffs and then hopefully close without a center

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Of course Jonas gets mixed in for matchup purposes. He is not a great defender but has the body to throw at Jokic, Gobert, Zubac, Adams, and Ayton. Every other team, Nance should get the bulk of the center minutes.

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Originally Posted by AusPel

Rob Williams it is

Chuck dem chips in

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Williams wont be available, but its a good question to ask who the best available big could be. Obviously, you got the bad teams, but what team could see the season go wrong and be unexpected sellers? The ones that stand out to me:

Hawks - Capela for Nance, Graham, and a pick with maybe Nance going to a 3rd team and the Hawks get another asset and go into the Okongwu era
Pistons - Not that they expect to be good, but maybe Duren is even further along than expected, and they decide to clear the way for him to get 30mpg by trading Stewart - who the Pels love
Blazers - Lillard gets hurt again, they go into sell mode and Nurkic gives the Pels another big body with more switchability
Spurs - Jacob Poetl will be a FA next summer. Spurs get something for him. Maybe they will be happy with getting the Eurobasket MVP in exchange for him??
Kings - Richaun Holmes would make a solid 3 man rotation with Nance and Jonas

The dream, of course, is one day upgrading Jonas. If the Pels were to ever make the all in, 5 picks, 4 swaps type of trade, it would be for a Bam or a Embiid/Jokic asking out. Unlikely, but NBA history says all three of those guys wont play for just one franchise their whole careers

Poetl seems like the best realistic option, if Spurs would be open to trading within division. He's a defensive force entering the mid-20's prime. FT's very bad tho

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Pistons - Not that they expect to be good, but maybe Duren is even further along than expected, and they decide to clear the way for him to get 30mpg by trading Stewart - who the Pels love

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Interesting...

Video of Poetl defensive mastery. Imagine having him in place of JV / Hayes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIPEiU0SElI

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Originally Posted by Rheem654

Video of Poetl defensive mastery. Imagine having him in place of JV / Hayes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIPEiU0SElI

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Wasn't the Adams experiment enough to prevent us to hope to trader for this type of player ? With BI and Zion as centerpieces, you need shooting at 5.

You need a center by committee IMO. Not one guy, and not one skill. Nance is your switch guy vs a team like the Clips. Poetl would be your rim protection guy vs a Mavs or a Grizz. The offense will be fine regardless. The Pels reach their ceiling when they are a consistent top 10 defense and that will require a rim protector at center

It depends on the matchup, obviously. Jokic destroyed us but if we manage to avoid meeting him in the playoffs it wont matter.

You punish them right back for playing Jokic heavily. And you gotta take away as much from
Him as possible. He’s gonna get buckets. But if he gets buckets and 7+ dimes you’re meat

It's wild to me that Pels fans who watched this team all season last year still don't understand the impact that JV has defensively in most matchups. There are certain matchups where he'll be exposed because of lack of foot speed, but that's OK when he's not a top 3 usage guy on your team. Pulling your center for defensive purposes is only an issue when the guy is pivotal to your offensive success, which JV is not as long as Zion is healthy.

Jonas is average to above average in almost every single defensive metric. He's fine because he has a high IQ and cleans the glass at an elite level. He will be a net positive in at least 2/3s of matchups, and can find ways to be successful in limited minutes against the other 1/3. That's fine for a guy who is only making $14 mil.

Your best case scenario for asset management is Jax taking the next step into becoming a complete defender. IMO, you watch him to the all star break and then make your move if necessary. Centers will be available at that point. I would, however, be perfectly willing to move DG, Temple, and a first with some protections for Harrison Barnes. DG for Rirchardson would also be nice.

When it comes to the backup Center position, there's just not a whole lot of reason to make a move right now.

I respect your opinion but I don’t think I have seen anything on this board I disagree with more. He is horrible on defense for this current NBA. You watch any close game last year down the stretch, when he played, and teams literally put him in the pick and roll every possession. And come playoff time that is going to happen even more

The only way he could be a net positive before was to be good enough offensively to offset his poor D and to your point, we don’t need his offense nearly as much any more. I think he will be positive culture wise but purely on court, I think he will be the guy who draws the most ire from the fan base this year - of the main guys

I think there's a disconnect when we talk about defense and how it relates to finishing games. I don't think JV is a finisher. I don't think the Pels think JV is a finisher long term. I don't think JV thinks he's a finisher long term. His $14.7 mil contract is telling in that regard. I view him more in terms of steadying the ship. You know that night in and night out, he's going to be in the right spots and he's going to crush it on the glass. The advanced metrics say that too, for the most part.

Like I said, and you outlined it more properly, there's going to be a number of good teams that he is unplayable against. At his cap number, that's fine. Nance is a nice yang to JV's yin because of his athleticism and foot speed. We all know that the ceiling for this team is finishing with Trey anyway most nights. I just want to get out in front of the takes that JV is unplayable defensively because I know it's coming, and there's nothing in his numbers that back that up

Its all about WHEN in my opinion

By that, I mean that I see 3 different sports when I watch the NBA -- regular season, first 42 minutes; regular season, last 6 mins; and Playoffs (and you can argue 3rd and 4th round is a different sport from 1st and 2nd)

So, yeah, when you look at thousands of minutes, most of which take place in the first sport, JV appears fine. Where the Pels are at now, roster wise, I dont really care about that any more. I would be trying to tinker my roster to maximize the other times (final 6 mins and playoffs). And I know I cant use JV consistently for that. Honestly, I think Nance will be below average there too. Better than JV, but I dont think he really offers enough on either end to be a closing 5 player on a real contender. Eventually, the Pels will either have to trade for an impact big or you gotta hope they can close with length and gang rebound/protect the rim with length (Herb, Daniels, BI, Trey, Duke Zion, etc)

JV is a fine value, and will be an amazing culture piece. Rather have him than not, but since I dont value you the regular season, first 42 mins that much, I probably think less of him as a player than most

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Its all about WHEN in my opinion

By that, I mean that I see 3 different sports when I watch the NBA -- regular season, first 42 minutes; regular season, last 6 mins; and Playoffs (and you can argue 3rd and 4th round is a different sport from 1st and 2nd)

So, yeah, when you look at thousands of minutes, most of which take place in the first sport, JV appears fine. Where the Pels are at now, roster wise, I dont really care about that any more. I would be trying to tinker my roster to maximize the other times (final 6 mins and playoffs). And I know I cant use JV consistently for that. Honestly, I think Nance will be below average there too. Better than JV, but I dont think he really offers enough on either end to be a closing 5 player on a real contender. Eventually, the Pels will either have to trade for an impact big or you gotta hope they can close with length and gang rebound/protect the rim with length (Herb, Daniels, BI, Trey, Duke Zion, etc)

JV is a fine value, and will be an amazing culture piece. Rather have him than not, but since I dont value you the regular season, first 42 mins that much, I probably think less of him as a player than most

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No disagreements. He's obviously the most obvious position to upgrade, but he's good enough to allow you to be patient