Rotation predictions

The starting front court is set in stone with Steven Adams at the 5, Zion at the 4, with BI at the 3. Now the backcourt is tricky as who will start. I think Eric Bledsoe should start at the 1 since Lonzo?s half court point play leaves a lot to be desired. So who will start at the 2 between Lonzo and JJ? Do we want the play making, speed, defense, rebounding, and height of Lonzo Ball or do we want the elite 3 point shooting of JJ Redick to space the floor for Zion & BI? I hope we see a platoon based on the matchups. Plus it would be nice to have their trade value at the highest come the trade deadline if we want to move either of them if we are not looking at a potential playoff spot.

C: Adams, Hayes, Hernangomez, Zion
PF: Zion, Melli, BI
SF: BI, Hart, Lonzo
SG: JJ, Lonzo, NAW, Hart
PG: Bledsoe, Lonzo, Kira

I think Lonzo being the 6th man most nights might be ideal since he can play the 1, 2, or 3. I?m sure we will see a small ball lineup of Zion, BI, Lonzo, JJ, & Bledsoe at times since they will likely be our 5 best players on the roster. I?m hoping NAW is ready to be in the main rotation as he has shown to have some serious talent. I would also like to see Kira and his speed get minutes as well. He looks like Ja Morant minus the dunks. I doubt he will be in the regular rotation early on, but maybe towards the end of the season he will get more minutes. It will likely come down to the play of NAW and Kira as to who will be in the regular rotation down the stretch.

C: Adams, hernangomez
PF: zion, melli
SF: ingram, hart
SG: lonzo, JJ, NAW
PG: bledsoe, lonzo

if we go into the season healthy...

C: Adams (28); Hernangomez; Hayes; Zion
PF: Zion (30); Melli; Hayes
SF: BI (34); Hart; Zion; JJ
SG: Lonzo (22); JJ; NAW; Hart
PG: EB (28); Kira; NAW; Lonzo

Numbers represent anticipated minutes played by starters at that position.
It's could be Hayes then Hernmangomez by midyear.
Personally, I would love to see BI get minutes at SG but team composition makes this unlikely
NAW is the wildcard.

PG: Bledsoe -- 30 mpg
SG: Lonzo -- 28 mpg
SF: Ingram -- 34 mpg
PF: Zion -- 31 mpg
C: Adams -- 27 mpg
6th: Hart -- 24 mpg
7th: JJ -- 23 mpg
8th: NAW -- 18 mpg
9th: Hayes -- 15 mpg
10th: Melli -- 10 mpg

1) Expect to see more of Hart than JJ because of lack of SF depth, IMO, but this will obviously be linear based on opponents.
2) Plenty of NAW, hopefully with the likes of either Bledsoe, Zo, or BI as well as a lob catcher in Zion or Hayes. He will not be the only ball handler on the floor this year during his minutes, thank god!!!
3) Hayes starts the season at 16. Could rise to 22 or drop to 5 depending on the progress he makes defensively. Pels are desperate for Hayes to become an asset, so I think he plays a lot more than people expect
4) I actually expect an 11-12 man rotation to start the year as guys get back into basketball shape, specifically after SVG's comments
5) They spoke about Zion at the 3, but I don't see it yet with this particular group. There's not really much of a way to get Zion minutes at the 3 without burying Hart for a guy like Wenyen Gabriel or extended Melli run

Closing lineups will usually be the same as the starting lineup, but I see definite scenarios in which they finish with Zion at the 5 and either Hart or JJ (or even NAW) in a 3 guard lineup in games where they need offense.

This is about how I see minutes distributed early on, though I am hoping Hayes, Kira, Marshall, and NAW show some good development and get bumped up in these rotations:

5: Adams, Hernangomez, Hayes, Zion
4: Zion, Melli, Hart, Marshall
3: Ingram, Hart, Marshall, Melli
2: Lonzo, Redick, Hart, NAW, Bledsoe
1: Bledsoe, Lonzo, Kira, NAW


Really looking forward to seeing some "Speed Kills" lineups:

5. Zion/Hayes
4. BI/Zion
3. NAW
2. Lonzo
1. Kira

Griff told us that Zion would probably get time as a 3. Don't see him at the 5 hardly ever.

5. SA30, JAX18, WIL, WEN
4. ZW25, NM23, WEN
3. BI35, ZW13, HART, LB, NAW, SIN
2. LB25, JJ23, HART, NAW
1. EB25, KL13,NAW10, LB

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Silver Nail

Griff told us that Zion would probably get time as a 3. Don't see him at the 5 hardly ever.

5. SA30, JAX18, WIL, WEN
4. ZW25, NM23, WEN
3. BI35, ZW13, HART, LB, NAW, SIN
2. LB25, JJ23, HART, NAW
1. EB25, KL13,NAW10, LB

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I don't want to burst anyone's bubble, but Zion will not average 38 MPG

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

I don't want to burst anyone's bubble, but Zion will not average 38 MPG

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I also dont think Hayes is getting 18 (if team is healthy) or Kira is getting 13 (again, if team is healthy)

I would say a fully healthy team, the minutes are something like:

Ingram - 34
Zion - 34
Lonzo - 32
Bledsoe - 30
Hart - 26
Adams - 26
JJ - 24
Melli - 18
NAW - 10
Hayes or Hernangomez - 10

Injuries will happen, covid will happen, and rotation might change if trades happens or Pels are clearly out of playoff race (unlikely, since playoff race goes to 10 this year)

But from the jump, I dont see Kira getting any minutes and Hayes is gonna be in for a real fight with Hernangomez, who I think is the superior player right now.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I also dont think Hayes is getting 18 (if team is healthy) or Kira is getting 13 (again, if team is healthy)

I would say a fully healthy team, the minutes are something like:

Ingram - 34
Zion - 34
Lonzo - 32
Bledsoe - 30
Hart - 26
Adams - 26
JJ - 24
Melli - 18
NAW - 10
Hayes or Hernangomez - 10

Injuries will happen, covid will happen, and rotation might change if trades happens or Pels are clearly out of playoff race (unlikely, since playoff race goes to 10 this year)

But from the jump, I dont see Kira getting any minutes and Hayes is gonna be in for a real fight with Hernangomez, who I think is the superior player right now.

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Pretty in agreement here, other than Jax.

I think we see NAW somewhere closer to 16-18, with a few less minutes for Lonzo and Melli. I think we see a good bit of BI at the 4 when Adams is at the 5 (similar to Gallo and Adams last season), so that will cut into Melli's minutes.

Coaches always wanna play young guys more in the preseason. Then reality hits and they lose a few games here and there because of one or two possessions. All of a sudden, young guys minutes go down and older guys get more.

I think that happens again in late Jan, Feb, etc

Unless NAW really tanks, I can promise that won’t happen. May happen with Jax

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Coaches always wanna play young guys more in the preseason. Then reality hits and they lose a few games here and there because of one or two possessions. All of a sudden, young guys minutes go down and older guys get more.

I think that happens again in late Jan, Feb, etc

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I agree for the most part, but this year is an unusual one (new coaching staff, condensed preseason, COVID). I think starters will play a lot in preseason, but I do think we'll see a lot of Will/JAX battle and heavy dose of NAW. I do think NAW will breakout which will open things up at the trade deadline (JJ, Lonzo, Hart). If Will can slide down and play some 4, you may even see Melli on the block.

Hayes will get as many minutes as a backup center should. If anything the "3rd" center will continue to be Melli.

This Hernangomez feller is this year's Jah. He's insurance for injury or otherwise won't see much playing time.

I was looking forward to seeing more Hayes but now idk if he'll touch the floor

Quote:

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Originally Posted by luckyman

Hayes will get as many minutes as a backup center should. If anything the "3rd" center will continue to be Melli.

This Hernangomez feller is this year's Jah. He's insurance for injury or otherwise won't see much playing time.

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Will is the only 5 that can potentially spread the floor (unless you consider Melli). I would be surprised if JAX is the primary backup when play starts up. Pleasantly surprised, but, nonetheless, surprised. He simply has far too much to learn to be effective now.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by luckyman

Hayes will get as many minutes as a backup center should. If anything the "3rd" center will continue to be Melli.

This Hernangomez feller is this year's Jah. He's insurance for injury or otherwise won't see much playing time.

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Yeah, I agree with this. No reason that he should get inherent priority over Hayes imo. He's played about 12 minutes a game for the last three years, is already 25, and offers little in terms of a completely different look on the floor (he's not a shooter, not a crazy passer, for example, in a way that would make him a clear pick over Jax). He's the Okafor. That's fine, there's nothing wrong with that.

I hope all of the younger players surprise everyone. Help them make the playoffs as an exciting, and surprising great defensive team.

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Originally Posted by stevemadden504

I was looking forward to seeing more Hayes but now idk if he'll touch the floor

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What am I missing?

Why did we draft a super raw centre AT EIGHT if everyone else is going to get minutes ahead of him?

Was Silver given the wrong name at draft night?

Was he planned to be trade bait right from the beginning?

I'm really confused

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Originally Posted by AusPel

What am I missing?

Why did we draft a super raw centre AT EIGHT if everyone else is going to get minutes ahead of him?

Was Silver given the wrong name at draft night?

Was he planned to be trade bait right from the beginning?

I'm really confused

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At eight, they probably thought his ceiling was higher than the rest (I agree). The problem is that his floor could be below sea level. I'll take the 'half-full 'approach until proven otherwise. Some players are black...some players are white....but our Jaxson is as GREEN as the 18th fairway at Augusta; he desperately needs to learn the game!!!

I dare say that no lottery pick has ever been made with less practical playing experience than JAX in NBA History.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AusPel

What am I missing?

Why did we draft a super raw centre AT EIGHT if everyone else is going to get minutes ahead of him?

Was Silver given the wrong name at draft night?

Was he planned to be trade bait right from the beginning?

I'm really confused

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DeAndre Jordan (who I think Hayes is as raw as coming out and Hayes is a year younger when he came out) got 14 mins his rookie year, then 16 his 2nd year) Finally became a starter and got 25mpg by age 22

Bigs take a while to understand the game. And Hayes also has to put on bulk, so he is both raw and has an under developed body

I think he COULD get 15-18 mins this year, especially when injuries occur, but he wont just get those minutes because he was the 8th overall pick. He will have to beat out Hernangomez, and that is not a given. Hernangomez has an NBA body and a better overall offensive skill set as of right now. Also, he isnt great defensively, but I have not seen many guys look more lost than Hayes did last year and if he looks that lost this year, he will get quick hooks from SVG

Why are you so convinced Kira won’t get any minutes this year? Herro was an one-and-done SEC guard taken at 13 last year and played substantial minutes for a title contender. Booker and Mitchell were also young guards taken at 13 and saw substantial rookie playing time. Not saying Lewis will be as good as those guys, but not sure why you think he’s a G-Leaguer...

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Originally Posted by new city champ

Why are you so convinced Kira won’t get any minutes this year? Herro was an one-and-done SEC guard taken at 13 last year and played substantial minutes for a title contender. Booker and Mitchell were also young guards taken at 13 and saw substantial rookie playing time. Not saying Lewis will be as good as those guys, but not sure why you think he’s a G-Leaguer...

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"not get any minutes" wouldnt be 100% accurate. He will get minutes once injuries and covid occur.

And yes, you can list guards taken in his range that got heavy minutes, but they would be the outliers, not the norm. They also were on teams without the guard depth this team has. They also had a summer league and a training camp.

Kira wont have played in 9 months, had no Summer League, and will have the shortest training camp of all time. The Pels will have like 6 days of camp before preseason begins. It has nothing to do with Lewis -- I like him a lot long term. But I dont think any rookie would have made the Pels rotation to start this year. Nothing against Lewis at all

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AusPel

What am I missing?

Why did we draft a super raw centre AT EIGHT if everyone else is going to get minutes ahead of him?

Was Silver given the wrong name at draft night?

Was he planned to be trade bait right from the beginning?

I'm really confused

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I was listening to I think Vecenie talk about Wiseman in a draft review the other day. He was saying its not often that they see a 7 footer move and jump with coordination like Wiseman does. Then he just kind of tossed in that Jaxson Hayes was the biggest freak they've ever seen in this regard last year. That's why you pick him 8th.

He's raw as hell because he started playing so late; but the pieces are there for him to be insanely good offensively (I think passing ability and jumper as well). Just need to put those pieces together, and that takes time.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

I was listening to I think Vecenie talk about Wiseman in a draft review the other day. He was saying its not often that they see a 7 footer move and jump with coordination like Wiseman does. Then he just kind of tossed in that Jaxson Hayes was the biggest freak they've ever seen in this regard last year. That's why you pick him 8th.

He's raw as hell because he started playing so late; but the pieces are there for him to be insanely good offensively (I think passing ability and jumper as well). Just need to put those pieces together, and that takes time.

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I think the main part of his development needs to be the mental part. He seemed confused often last year. Once the game slows down for him, he will be much better. He can continue to work on his body as well.

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

I think the main part of his development needs to be the mental part. He seemed confused often last year. Once the game slows down for him, he will be much better. He can continue to work on his body as well.

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Absolutely. No argument here

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

DeAndre Jordan (who I think Hayes is as raw as coming out and Hayes is a year younger when he came out) got 14 mins his rookie year, then 16 his 2nd year) Finally became a starter and got 25mpg by age 22

Bigs take a while to understand the game. And Hayes also has to put on bulk, so he is both raw and has an under developed body

I think he COULD get 15-18 mins this year, especially when injuries occur, but he wont just get those minutes because he was the 8th overall pick. He will have to beat out Hernangomez, and that is not a given. Hernangomez has an NBA body and a better overall offensive skill set as of right now. Also, he isnt great defensively, but I have not seen many guys look more lost than Hayes did last year and if he looks that lost this year, he will get quick hooks from SVG

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This

There's people saying we should give up on Hayes, ship him out, sunk cost, etc. Don't listen to those people. Hayes has a good chance of being worth the investment, and we aren't in win now mode by any means. Just give him some time to develop.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

There's people saying we should give up on Hayes, ship him out, sunk cost, etc. Don't listen to those people. Hayes has a good chance of being worth the investment, and we aren't in win now mode by any means. Just give him some time to develop.

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He's 20 years old; I agree with this. But, if he can't beat WH for the BU role (a true measuring stick), he should be sent down to Erie (or is it Birmingham) so he can play starter minutes to begin the season and familiarize himself with the game (I said the same thing last year and got lambasted for it on this forum).

Further, as much as people want Adams to teach him the nuances of center play in the NBA, it's really quite futile until JAX has a working knowledge of the game. It's kind'a like teaching a promising neophyte "Beethoven's Fifth" before he's even mastered 'Chopsticks'.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by As I See It

He's 20 years old; I agree with this. But, if he can't beat WH for the BU role (a true measuring stick), he should be sent down to Erie (or is it Birmingham) so he can play starter minutes to begin the season and familiarize himself with the game (I said the same thing last year and got lambasted for it on this forum).

Further, as much as people want Adams to teach him the nuances of center play in the NBA, it's really quite futile until JAX has a working knowledge of the game. It's kind'a like teaching a promising neophyte "Beethoven's Fifth" before he's even mastered 'Chopsticks'.

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I don't think this was every really an option last year because Favors was sooooo unreliable. You don't just send a guy to Erie for a bag of chips and expect him back the next day. That's a long ways away from the team. Basically a total disconnect. Once the team is in Birmingham, it will be much easier to utilize the G-league properly.

To this point, though, if there is a G-league this year, I'm assuming we wont just be able to call up and send people down very easily. There will probably multiple quarantine periods, etc. (one of the reasons why making multiple picks this year would've been pretty dumb). Does anyone have further info on the state of the G-League this season, if its been decided?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

There's people saying we should give up on Hayes, ship him out, sunk cost, etc. Don't listen to those people. Hayes has a good chance of being worth the investment, and we aren't in win now mode by any means. Just give him some time to develop.

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I have a lot of people talk to me on Twitter, and frequent 4 Pels mesaage boards and have literally never seen anybody say give up on Hayes and accept sunk cost

Trade him as a package for other pieces...sure. but those teams aren't close to the same

seeing hayes play for us,,im banking on him to have his head and game together in the 22-23 season.....im hoping that we play him at PF with zion at the 3 and BI at the 2....

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I have a lot of people talk to me on Twitter, and frequent 4 Pels mesaage boards and have literally never seen anybody say give up on Hayes and accept sunk cost

Trade him as a package for other pieces...sure. but those teams aren't close to the same

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Lol a certain podcast on Monday, November 30 said that exact thing. I was absolutely appalled

56 minute mark to be exact

I'm a bit skeptical of a Bledsoe Ball starting court in terms of reliable three point shooting. Bledsoe is a very streaky 3 point shooter and a lot of Ball's threes came with absolutely no one defending his three point shot. And Ball has some games where his outside shot completely deserts him (see the NBA bubble games). I think this is going to be our last year with Ball, and we're going to have to use the off season in a desperate bid to land a reliable three point shooter.

With Zion and Adams starting the Pelicans needs someone who can space the floor, which is why I think Reddick will be in the starting 5. Im not sure who will be starting PG out of Bledsoe or Lonzo, but both will get a lot of minutes

1 - Bledsoe or Lonzo
2 - Reddick
3 - Ingram
4 - Zion
5 - Adams

Hayes should get plenty of minutes. I’m not sure about Kira and NAW considering how guard heavy we are

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Originally Posted by JJackisangry

Hayes should get plenty of minutes. I’m not sure about Kira and NAW considering how guard heavy we are

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The FO is OBSESSED with NAW right now, and he is gonna get minutes. I wouldnt say he is the biggest reason Gentry is gone, but he is a reason the FO was upset with Gentry and a reason Moore and Frank arent back.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

The FO is OBSESSED with NAW right now, and he is gonna get minutes. I wouldnt say he is the biggest reason Gentry is gone, but he is a reason the FO was upset with Gentry and a reason Moore and Frank arent back.

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Interesting. And I have to say I agree with the FO that Gentry was guilty in mishandling Nickeil

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

The FO is OBSESSED with NAW right now, and he is gonna get minutes. I wouldnt say he is the biggest reason Gentry is gone, but he is a reason the FO was upset with Gentry and a reason Moore and Frank arent back.

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Obsessed in that they think he has much more potential and was held back with lack of playing time last year?

Doesn't take much to see the FO and SVG really like NAW. Almost every interview SVG mentions him as a standout. Plus the kid speaks as if he really understands the game. Talking being able to finish better this year.

I didn't want to say much, but I definitely noticed.Very hopeful he takes a major step forward this year. Otherwise the guard rotation could be a mess.

The primary objective of the first half of the season is figuring out what Lonzo is (placeholder or fixture)l everything else is secondary. If it's determined he is a placeholder...both Lewis and NAW should be inserted in the starting group with Bledsoe and Hart coming of the bench. And, Lonzo and JJ should be shipped out at mid-year.

Regardless, I do not want the team to repeat history and 'NAW' Kira Lewis....either play him or 'G League' him.

Heard an interview on SiriusXM with NAW prior to the 2019 draft and he was very impressive. Even the interviewers commented after the interview how great an interview he was and how he really understood the nuances of the game. Watching him last year, I was surprised it was the same guy. I hope he makes a big improvement this year and becomes part of the rotation.

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

Heard an interview on SiriusXM with NAW prior to the 2019 draft and he was very impressive. Even the interviewers commented after the interview how great an interview he was and how he really understood the nuances of the game. Watching him last year, I was surprised it was the same guy. I hope he makes a big improvement this year and becomes part of the rotation.

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Similar to Ball, a lot of it is mental (and to be fair to NAW he was a rookie so he has a little leeway). The biggest issue Gentry had was he would opt for Moore and such the second NAW made a mistake and glue him to the bench. You don?t do that to young players. You don?t give them sporadic playing time. Gentry was more concerned about his job than he was about coaching for the team which said enough for me to fire him.