Pelicans Lottery Possibilities

This has been thrown about before, but here's a nice quick way to look at it. By finishing with the 5th worst record, our odds are as follows when the lottery drawing occurs on Thursday, May 21st.


Pelicans odds by pick:


#1----------8.8%

#2----------9.7%

#3----------10.7%

#4-----------0%

#5----------26.1%

#6----------36%

#7----------8.4%

#8----------0.4%



Here are the same numbers in order by probability:


#6----------36%

#5----------26.1%

#3----------10.7%

#2----------9.7%

#1----------8.8%

#7----------8.4%

#8----------0.4%


(all other picks, including #4, 0% chance)

So dumb how having the 5th pick actually means #6 is more likely. hahaha

Just about odds of being 7th or 1st :/

I like the Pelicans in the thread title

Why is there a 0% chance at #4?

Can someone explain why we have a 0% at 4?

Because we can only move up to 1, 2 or 3. Only the first three positions are drawn, after that it defaults to the worst to best teams in remaining order.

The Lottery is drawn for picks #1, 2, & 3. So every team in the lottery has a chance at #1, 2, or 3, or the pick they are currently slotted in, or to move back up to three spots (depending how many teams are slotted behind them in the lottery before the drawing)

That is a bummer.

Using the expectation formula on the pick probability PMF, we can calculate the expected pick the Pels will get:

If E[X] = summation from 1 to 8 of P_i*X_i, then:
1*0.088 + 2*0.097 + 3*0.107 + 4*0 + 5*.261 + 6*.36 + 7*.084 + 8*0.004 = 4.688

So our expected pick is 4.688-- or in real draft pick numbers-- 5. But I like to find it encouraging that the statistics point us to fare a little bit better than 5. :)

I now understand, thanks...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MRider

Using the expectation formula on the pick probability PMF, we can calculated the expected pick the Pels will get:

If E[X] = summation from 1 to 8 of P_i*X_i, then:
1*0.088 + 2*0.097 + 3*0.107 + 4*0 + 5*.261 + 6*.36 + 7*.084 + 8*0.004 = 4.688

So our expected pick is 4.688-- or in real draft pick numbers-- 5. But I like to find it encouraging that the statistics point us to fare a little bit better than 5. :)

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Stats Nerd :p

NOELS!

Make Burke Happen

#6 may be the most likely scenario if we're looking at single numbers, but there is a 55.3% chance that we have a top 5 pick, including 27.2% chance for a top 3 pick. I like the odds to be happy with who we get.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by WhoDatPelican

Make Burke Happen

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We get Burke... we need to trade Gordon. Don't think they can co-exist lol

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bee-Fense

#6 may be the most likely scenario if we're looking at single numbers, but there is a 55.3% chance that we have a top 5 pick, including 27.2% chance for a top 3 pick. I like the odds to be happy with who we get.

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Where've you been bro? Bout to lose your sim league team... and Vince Carter!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IamQuailman

We get Burke... we need to trade Gordon. Don't think they can co-exist lol

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by IamQuailman

Where've you been bro? Bout to lose your sim league team... and Vince Carter!

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Performing Shakespeare is a daunting task that has taken away a lot of my free time. Also just been busy with school, preparing for college, and the other regular things.

May the odds be forever in the Pelicans favor

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bee-Fense

Performing Shakespeare is a daunting task that has taken away a lot of my free time. Also just been busy with school, preparing for college, and the other regular things.

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That's cool man! Just was curious. Hope everything is going well for ya!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IamQuailman

We get Burke... we need to trade Gordon. Don't think they can co-exist lol

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Why not?

Well just from the games I've seen Burke play in, he seems to need the ball in his hands (as he should, being a point guard, facilitating the offense, and all)... but Gordon is kind of the same way in that he's ball-dominant. Just don't know how those two would play together

we gonna get the 3rd overall pick, we good!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IamQuailman

Well just from the games I've seen Burke play in, he seems to need the ball in his hands (as he should, being a point guard, facilitating the offense, and all)... but Gordon is kind of the same way in that he's ball-dominant. Just don't know how those two would play together

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I think they can coexist since both can shoot wide open jumpers. They both can play off the ball.