2021 NBA Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I think my new general draft guideline is that if someone is under 6'3 they require an absolutely mindnumbingly outlier skill in some form or else I'm not interested at all.

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Dae, have you looked anymore at Garuba, the big kid playing for Madrid? He looks like he might be NBA ready to fill the hole at PF behind Zion...

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Starting to put together my pre-season 2022 draft stuff, based on all the pre-college sample stuff I've watched along with the stuff I've read from other draft people. It's been a slightly weird year because obviously a lot of stuff hasn't happened as it would normally, but these are the guys I'm watching out for next year.

Top 5:
- Paulo Banchero
- AJ Griffin
- Yannick Nzosa
- Chet Holmgren
- Peyton Watson

Lottery prospects:
- Patrick Baldwin
- Jean Montero
- Ousmane Dieng
- Jabari Smith
- Caleb Houstan
- Kendall Brown
- Matt Cleveland
- Jaden Hardy

Other guys to watch for, probably first rounders: Kennedy Chandler, Nikola Jovic, Kadary Richmond, Lefteris Mantzoukas, Jaden Ivey, Jabari Walker, Trevor Keels

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I'm surprised Jaden Hardy is not higher for you. Why so?

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

I'm surprised Jaden Hardy is not higher for you. Why so?

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Honestly just haven't seen enough film from him. These are still super early rankings and he could very well rise, but I've generally liked what I've seen but not enough has jumped off the screen for me to feel confident putting him higher over guys that I've seen do more, more consistently thus far.

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Originally Posted by new city champ

Dae, have you looked anymore at Garuba, the big kid playing for Madrid? He looks like he might be NBA ready to fill the hole at PF behind Zion...

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He's been in my signature basically the entire year :hihi:

I'm a big Garuba fan. He has extreme problems with his shooting and that stops me from moving him up any higher than about 10-13th in my rankings, but he's really fantastic defensively and has improved a lot as a ballhandler through the year.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

He's been in my signature basically the entire year :hihi:

I'm a big Garuba fan. He has extreme problems with his shooting and that stops me from moving him up any higher than about 10-13th in my rankings, but he's really fantastic defensively and has improved a lot as a ballhandler through the year.

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He certainly caught my eye while looking at film on the top 20 or so guys. He looks like a real defensive monster down on the block. His shot does look clunky, but he's a fluid athlete who is built a little stouter than some of the long wings that may be available when we pick. I think he brings some of the same explosiveness and physicality that Zion does and I like it when guys can approximate what the guy playing in front of them does. He's young with a giant wingspan. He might good value in the late lottery, if he makes it that far. I'm biased though as I still don't think I've gotten over the Pels not taking Clarke in '19...

This is gonna be such an anticlamatic thread. Pels aint drafting a guy in the top 20 this year. That pick is getting traded. Focus time on potential late 1st/2nd round sleepers

Is Griff's seat that warm? I wouldn't mind adding one more lottery talent in the draft then using our 2nd rounders and/or creating some cap room to acquire a couple of role playing vets--and not the $15 million variety. Of course, if they plan to swing for the fences this off season on a "3rd star," then I get it. I don't particularly like that route--I'm in the minority in that I like program/culture building rather than reaching for one star--but that's a legit reason to use the pick in a package to go for a guy. I wouldn't do it to sign, as you suggested they might, a Robert Covington-type player. I'd rather 90% of a Covington on a decent deal than sacrificing a lottery pick for that kind of guy...

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Originally Posted by new city champ

Is Griff's seat that warm? I wouldn't mind adding one more lottery talent in the draft then using our 2nd rounders and/or creating some cap room to acquire a couple of role playing vets--and not the $15 million variety. Of course, if they plan to swing for the fences this off season on a "3rd star," then I get it. I don't particularly like that route--I'm in the minority in that I like program/culture building rather than reaching for one star--but that's a legit reason to use the pick in a package to go for a guy. I wouldn't do it to sign, as you suggested they might, a Robert Covington-type player. I'd rather 90% of a Covington on a decent deal than sacrificing a lottery pick for that kind of guy...

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For me it all depends on where the picks falls and what's on the table for it.

If you get the number 1 pick you don't trade it unless it's part of a deal to secure a top 20 player.

If you get the number 10 pick, trade it, but not for like some scrub; make sure you're getting back someone who can legitimately play and isn't 36 and dying of injuries.

That's assuming we do trade it, which we very well might.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

For me it all depends on where the picks falls and what's on the table for it.

If you get the number 1 pick you don't trade it unless it's part of a deal to secure a top 20 player.

If you get the number 10 pick, trade it, but not for like some scrub; make sure you're getting back someone who can legitimately play and isn't 36 and dying of injuries.

That's assuming we do trade it, which we very well might.

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Top 10-13 range = Larry Nance Jr

8-9 = Jermai Grant or Sabonis deal

3-4 Possibly trade for Beal, Toronto combo or keep the pick

1-2 Keeping the picks unless major star becomes available. Will vomit if it's KAT

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

This is gonna be such an anticlamatic thread. Pels aint drafting a guy in the top 20 this year. That pick is getting traded. Focus time on potential late 1st/2nd round sleepers

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Why are you so certain of that?

And do you believe we would still trade the pick if we ended up landing a top 4 pick?

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

Top 10-13 range = Larry Nance Jr

8-9 = Jermai Grant or Sabonis deal

3-4 Possibly trade for Beal, Toronto combo or keep the pick

1-2 Keeping the picks unless major star becomes available. Will vomit if it's KAT

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I would literally break ******** if we traded any pick in the top 15 this year for Larry Nance. Then cry. Then break more stuff.

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Originally Posted by RUFshreve

I would literally break ******** if we traded any pick in the top 15 this year for Larry Nance. Then cry. Then break more stuff.

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Yeah I like Nance but I wouldn't be moving the 10th pick for him.

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

Top 10-13 range = Larry Nance Jr

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wat

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Originally Posted by RUFshreve

I would literally break ******** if we traded any pick in the top 15 this year for Larry Nance. Then cry. Then break more stuff.

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It wouldnt be just the pick for Nance. You would be getting off Bledsoe too, which is probably worth a late 1st by itself. Cutting that salary would also allow you to use the MLE after re-signing Hart and doing whatever with Lonzo. So, if you think about it as: Pick 11 and Bledsoe for Nance and say Danny Green or Doug McDermott - it isnt the worst deal in the world. Especially considering all the other young guys on the team that we are still developing. Its hard to develop five or six 20-22 year olds all at once

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

It wouldnt be just the pick for Nance. You would be getting off Bledsoe too, which is probably worth a late 1st by itself. Cutting that salary would also allow you to use the MLE after re-signing Hart and doing whatever with Lonzo. So, if you think about it as: Pick 11 and Bledsoe for Nance and say Danny Green or Doug McDermott - it isnt the worst deal in the world. Especially considering all the other young guys on the team that we are still developing. Its hard to develop five or six 20-22 year olds all at once

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True. I forgot to mention Bledsoe attached. Kicking myself for forgetting it lol

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Yeah I like Nance but I wouldn't be moving the 10th pick for him.

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Buckle up lol. I honestly can't see a better deal,maybe players and Bled for Mccollum, but honestly I don't believe in Mccollum making this team drastically better. I know MM thrown around trade ideas for him if the Blazers blow it up, but a trade for him will probably make us slightly better. I get in theory having a true closer, and better shooter shall help, but man I want to focus on defense more when obtaining new players.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

This is gonna be such an anticlamatic thread. Pels aint drafting a guy in the top 20 this year. That pick is getting traded. Focus time on potential late 1st/2nd round sleepers

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Do you see Griff attempting to making his big move this offseason already with the "war chest?"

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

Do you see Griff attempting to making his big move this offseason already with the "war chest?"

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Attempting? Yes. Executing? No.

Fans will be back in stands next year. Owners will want to sell as many tickets as possible to recoup revenue, and you dont do that by trading your best players. Griff will go after Beal and others but I dont see teams moving those guys and they definitely wont for a poo-poo platter of picks headlines by the 10th or 11th pick in what many consider a 5 man draft with just role players after that.

Now, if we jump into the top 4, then he might be able to pull it off. But otherwise, I would anticipate quality upgrades that cost a pick or two, in addition to matching contracts.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

He's been in my signature basically the entire year :hihi:

I'm a big Garuba fan. He has extreme problems with his shooting and that stops me from moving him up any higher than about 10-13th in my rankings, but he's really fantastic defensively and has improved a lot as a ballhandler through the year.

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Professional career high 24 points, 12 rebounds for potential lottery pick Usman Garuba in arguably the biggest game of his career thus far: game four of the Euroleague playoffs to stave off elimination and force a deciding game five. Impressive stuff for a 19-year old.

— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) April 29, 2021

Draft guy PD Web has just uploaded his full scout document on Usman Garuba which is great. PD is cool, he's a good follow on twitter and also does a twitch basketball breakdown stream. Here's the link to the document:

the USMAN breakdown is live (free)
team defense as systems of thought, Movement Skill Mario Kart & the greatest youth basketball performance of all time.https://t.co/CFkNVD3ve5

— PD Web (@abovethebreak3) April 28, 2021

It's technically a link to his Patreon but this document is free, you don't have to pay or anything.

Here are some interesting/important things about Garuba taken from this document, for the shortened version. His full document contains clips to go along with some of the information and analysis.

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D Fun Fact
Garuba (15 points, 11 rebounds, 10 blocks) is one of three players to have a triple-double in the final of the FIBA U16 Euro Championships.
The others:
Dario Saric (2010) - 19 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists
Ricky Rubio (2006) - 51 points, 24 rebounds, 12 assists 7 steals (2OT)

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lmao Rubio

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So let’s label some outcomes- Garuba is a W/F/C offensively and defensively who wins games and plays hard and prolly needs to shoot. That much is black and white. Everything else is grey.

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The DEFENSE

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Garuba is a cool type of POA defender: a big strong switch defender who can recover downhill but struggles to change direction. That seems like a lot of terms but basically Garuba can get up to a high top speed and struggles to change direction or decelerate at top speed. If you have ever used the heavy weightclass in Mario Kart, you are familiar with the tradeoffs and trickiness at play here. What makes USMAN so interesting stylistically, is that he is very aggressive on-ball, wanting to defend like a flittering pest rather than a dude who is built like Garuba actually is, a Tapas Julius Randle if you will. So you have interactions like the one above, where he tries to climb into a guard’s handle, gets beat middle when his footwork falters and then recovers for a “pin”. In the league, the aggressiveness and quick hands are going to pay off, but doing so with mediocre footwork and a reliance on reactionary athleticism is a steep difficulty curve.

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Off-ball defense brings about two questions about Garuba- what position does he defend & how much time would you like him to defend that position. Not all defensive assignments and archetypes have equal weight - a solid defensive 5 is about the most overstocked position in the NBA & placing a tweener there has serious lineup and team building implications, as backup 5 is one of the easier dollars to relative skill availabilities & on the other hand, players who can defend jumbo creators on the perimeter are the least available.


Garuba has great hands and good enough mobility to jump while backpedalling in drop - but there is a knock on effect of putting a smaller 5 in drop - they have to be SO good technically and athletically to be able cover the same ground as a traditionally sized 5. ******** is insanely hard, and I’m not sure it’s the best practice to use Garuba as a 5 in more than like 25% of lineups. It’s a steep challenge to return value and there is another, much more lucrative positional assignment that he could be spending that time at. It’s not that Garuba is a bad 5, he is hanging in EL, with its wild horizontal offenses, super physicality and brolic bigs - as a teenage big. There is so much communication and defensive feel required to not get exposed between those lines. But To me, I see an interesting facet, rather than the central pitch of his defensive utility.

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Garuba gets happy feet when he is on an island, to the point that I think his defense is more impressive due to how tough he makes it for himself.

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ON THE JUMPER:

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The jumper itself is pretty solid - there are three major issues that seem to be in various states of fix depending on the day. The first is the energy transfer - Garuba shoots in sections, and it’s what creates that versimilitudinous clunkiness, that not-quite-right feeling of a well trained but not well repped shooter. Getting the shot smooth is gonna reward the good form that Garuba has, especially for his rep as a bad shooter. Garuba is an almost exclusively hop shooter, which is prolly good for a player with serious segmentation issues. The next two issues are related but cause his misses most often - elbow collapsed inwards & the hand placement. The elbow creates a sorta lonzo ball effect, where he is shooting cross body, not because he is right eye dominant, but by body misalignment. Getting the elbow to face the rim will solve the hand placement (shooting bed) problem. Try a shooting motion with your elbow tucked across your body right now, look at your hand, see how it's diagonal and wonky. That’s the elbow concern and why Garuba misses all over. By getting the elbow in, it's gonna stabilize the hand and that will stabilize the follow-through, with enough in-game reps of course.

Getting the hand under the ball is also gonna solve the arc issues, sometimes he shoots a moon ball, other times it’s regular, other times it's a line drive. Again, shooting bed, but that idea of a “shooting a soft ball” all comes back to a repeatable form, with no moving parts. Garuba has shot fairly well considering the leaks in energy from his current form. I think his footwork is generally pretty good and speaks to the work level and growth. It’s a whole lot better than it used to be and he is letting shots fly relative to where he used to be. It’s mostly c&s on kickouts, but he is taking them.

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PASSING SKILLS

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Usman is a good playmaker in a specific sense- one touch passing with a quick read. Garuba can identify the coverage and process what decision needs to be made in a way that hints at other playmaking abilities. These 5/4 high lows, on the short roll in PNR, one mores - but that’s also the end of the flashes because on this Real Madrid side, that’s all they need. Teaching a wing to read the floor in a broad variety of situations is a really messy developmental process. A wing/forward has to know how to make reads in basically every situation across 3 different positions & that's going to involve a lot of trial and error. You know what doesn’t allow for error - Euro League. Would you believe that Garuba had 4 possessions of PNR ball handler usage across the 70+ games RM played this year? Four.

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If you're interested in watching some analysis of Usman, you can catch PD Webs stream on him here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/1003326064 with Nekias Duncan.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Garuba is a cool type of POA defender: a big strong switch defender who can recover downhill but struggles to change direction. That seems like a lot of terms but basically Garuba can get up to a high top speed and struggles to change direction or decelerate at top speed. If you have ever used the heavy weightclass in Mario Kart, you are familiar with the tradeoffs and trickiness at play here. What makes USMAN so interesting stylistically, is that he is very aggressive on-ball, wanting to defend like a flittering pest rather than a dude who is built like Garuba actually is, a Tapas Julius Randle if you will. So you have interactions like the one above, where he tries to climb into a guard?s handle, gets beat middle when his footwork falters and then recovers for a ?pin?. In the league, the aggressiveness and quick hands are going to pay off, but doing so with mediocre footwork and a reliance on reactionary athleticism is a steep difficulty curve.

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No thanks, we already have one of these.

Just saw someone on Twitter do a version of this and I thought it looked like a pretty decent idea so I made my own.

This is ranking prospects for this year's draft by archetype. So players are being compared to other players of their style.

Primary Creators - Off Guards - Scorers - Off Ball Wings - 3+D - Big Wings - Small Bigs - Stretch Forwards - True Bigs

Rank:	Primary Creators	Off Guards	Scorers	Off-Wings	3+D Guys	Big Wings	Small Bigs	Stretch Forwards	True Bigs
1	Cade Cunningham	Jalen Suggs	Keon Johnson	Ziaire Williams	Moses Moody	J. Kuminga	Usman Garuba	Kai Jones	Evan Mobley
2	Sharife Cooper	Jaden Springer	Tre Mann	Corey Kispert	Franz Wagner	Roko Prkacin	Scottie Barnes	JT Thor	Alperen Sengun
3	Josh Giddey	Jalen Green	Bones Hyland	Marcus Bagley	Chris Duarte	J. Johnson	RaiQuan Grey	Jeremiah Robinson Earle	Isaiah Jackson
4	Jared Butler	Davion Mitchell	James Bouknight	Joe Wieskamp	Aaron Henry	Kessler Edwards	Mark Vital	Filip Petrusev	Dayron Sharpe
5	Daishen Nix	Deuce McBride	Josh Christopher	DJ Stewart	Terrance Shannon	Santi Aldama		Isaiah Todd	Neemias Queta
6	David Johnson	Ayo Dosunmu	BJ Boston	Johnny Juzang	Herb Jones	Yves Pons		Sandro Mamelukashvili	Ariel Hukporti

Something like that, there are a few names that I don't really dig that much but I was just trying to fill the columns (you can see I ran out of small bigs I was willing to put, even Grey and Vital are stretching it a bit, second round type guys.

A few of these are very debatale too, like I had a bit of a brain-melt over whether to put Bouknight above Hyland or not, or whether I should put Kispert over Williams. To some extent it depends what you're looking for. But this makes it a bit easier, cause rather than just trying to wonder who is good you can just say ''listen, I know a true primary is the most valuable player we can possibly have, who is the best true primary?'' and there's the answer. Similarly, if you're a team like the Thunder who will end up picking around the middle of the lottery, like 5th or something right now, and you know you already have SGA filling that true primary role and you're not high enough to get Cade, you can say ''I think we could really use a talented big wing'' or something and you can look and bam, that's your guy.

What do you all think about these prospects?

Amar Sylla
Greg Brown
Josh Christopher
Ibou Dianko Badji
Isaiah Todd
Davion Mitchell
Isaiah Livers
Landers Nolley II
Roko Prkacin

Been turning my attention to Isaiah Todd. Definitely like what I see so far. Might be a Demarcus Cousins type head case but skills are undeniable.

'Depending, of course, on the bounce of the ping pong balls, I wouldn't be adverse to trading out of the draft all together to get rid of Bledsoe and pick up an expiring contract that can help us immediately. We already have a "Kiddie Korps"...there is no sense in adding to our "Kindergarten Klass" with another project who will be, at best, a "definite maybe".

This team is almost certainly going to finish 10th or 11th in ping pong balls. Meaning there is an extremely high likelihood they will be drafting 10, 11, or 12. I cant see them staying there and just taking another slightly above average, long term prospect at the end of the lottery. Nor can I see them using their draft capital to go move up and take another 19 yr old who is 2-4 years away from helping win games, when the pressure will be on them to win next year. The only way I see Griff keeping the pick is if there really arent any quality players available via trade. But I think he would give it up plus Bledsoe for Larry Nance in a microsecond to give you an idea of the level of player he would prefer to the pick. He will start with Beal and Sabonis and others, but would settle for a Jerami Grant, Nance, etc before he will take another young kid. Why I keep saying people should start studying the late 1st/early 2nd more than the top 15

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

This team is almost certainly going to finish 10th or 11th in ping pong balls. Meaning there is an extremely high likelihood they will be drafting 10, 11, or 12. I cant see them staying there and just taking another slightly above average, long term prospect at the end of the lottery. Nor can I see them using their draft capital to go move up and take another 19 yr old who is 2-4 years away from helping win games, when the pressure will be on them to win next year. The only way I see Griff keeping the pick is if there really arent any quality players available via trade. But I think he would give it up plus Bledsoe for Larry Nance in a microsecond to give you an idea of the level of player he would prefer to the pick. He will start with Beal and Sabonis and others, but would settle for a Jerami Grant, Nance, etc before he will take another young kid. Why I keep saying people should start studying the late 1st/early 2nd more than the top 15

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Grouping Jerami Grant with Larry Nance is strange. I'd happily trade our first and Bledsoe for Grant, I'd be pissed if we did it for Nance. Those players are not on the same level.

I’ve had my eyes on Cam Thomas for a while because he should be a later post lottery pick.

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Originally Posted by MJ23datruGOAT

What do you all think about these prospects?

Amar Sylla
Greg Brown
Josh Christopher
Ibou Dianko Badji
Isaiah Todd
Davion Mitchell
Isaiah Livers
Landers Nolley II
Roko Prkacin

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Amar Sylla: Decent prospect in some ways, but I just think given his restrictions in terms of finesse, how raw he still is in some areas, combined with being a bit undersized, I would probably put him mid to late 2nd round.

Greg Brown: Fantastic vertical athlete, and has shown some intriguing flashes particularly on defense but he's a wing with an awkward janky jumper who is turnover prone and has relatively poor passing craft. Early second round.

Josh Christopher: I think he'll be a better shooter than he showed at college, mainly going off FT%, but he has really bad passing feel and generally struggles with the little thinks like off-ball movement and help D. Not that high on him.

Ibou Badji: He's in next year's draft, I think? Too early to say definitively but I think of him as a first round prospect right now.

Isaiah Todd: Played well in the G League, put up good numbers on positive efficiency and obviously has a bit more experience against NBA-ish guys, but I'm relatively unimpressed with his defensive prowess for a guy of his size and quickness, seems to be lacking a bit in anticipation and reads.

Davion Mitchell: Really tenacious point of attack defender but extremely whatever off-ball, and he's super small. Wonky decision making and lack of vision lead me far off him as a primary. A bit sceptical about the shooting given his poor shooting prior to this year and the bad FT%. 6'2 off-guards need extreme outlier skills to make me rate them highly as NBA prospects, and he doesn't really have them which is why I have him well outside the lottery. Old too. Still a first rounder though.

Isaiah Livers: I trust him as a shooter. Lots and lots of faith in that. And being 6'7 and able to really shoot it has value. Very little faith in him elsewhere: he's not a playmaker in any sense, isn't really the kind of guy who creates at a high level for himself or anyone else, and while he's a serviceable team defender he's not super great or anything. Combine that with his age (4 year college guy) he's probably an early 2nd round guy to me, though I wouldn't hate it for a good team to pick him up late first.

Landers Nolley: Old (will be 22 in a few days) and has had a rough ol' time of it at college. 48%TS last year, 54% this year, despite being huge for a guard (6'7). There's decent defensive potential there, I've seen him make some great defensive plays here and there, but it's not a super consistent thing and while there's been encouraging signs of his shooting (39% this year and 80% from the line) he's been pretty useless both years inside the arc. Honestly, shooting 44% from 2 as a 6'7 guy with length is pretty terrible, and that's an improvement on his first year. I think he'll be one of those guys that someone will pick up second round and then have a few big games with shooting and people will do the ''oh my god how did he not get picked in the lottery'' thing but will otherwise just be alright. Early or mid 2nd round guy.

Roko Prkacin: Super underrated, top 20 prospect in the class, I've been decent arguments that he should be a lottery pick. He's a big, 6'9 SF/PF, he's super young (doesn't turn 19 until November) and he's shown so much. Really athletic, really good passing feel (though all the wrinkles aren't ironed out yet, which is to be expected at his age) with really solid defense both on and off the ball. The jumper is shaky but improving and he's shown flashes of it being there (shot 35% this year). The concern is his turnovers, which isn't that surprising for a young ambitious passer, and the FT% where he's always been a mid 60s guy.

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Originally Posted by Eman5805

I’ve had my eyes on Cam Thomas for a while because he should be a later post lottery pick.

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2nd rounder imo

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Originally Posted by RUFshreve

Grouping Jerami Grant with Larry Nance is strange. I'd happily trade our first and Bledsoe for Grant, I'd be pissed if we did it for Nance. Those players are not on the same level.

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I think people are letting early season Grant confuse them. He's never been that high level before this year, and after his first 15 games or so, he's been very very mediocre this year too.

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Originally Posted by RUFshreve

Grouping Jerami Grant with Larry Nance is strange. I'd happily trade our first and Bledsoe for Grant, I'd be pissed if we did it for Nance. Those players are not on the same level.

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Neither are Sabonis and Jerami Grant. The point is that Griff will slowly work his way down the ladder as he keeps getting no's. He has already offered picks for Nance and was told no. I have no doubt he will offer again when he cant land bigger fish

The real darkhorse is Paul George. Small chance, of course, but if Clippers lose early, then Griff can move Bledsoe and pick(s) for a player they like plus a sign and trade of Lonzo to make salaries match. Nobody will like it initially, but then they will talk themselves into it. The way of the Pelican fan.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

The real darkhorse is Paul George. Small chance, of course, but if Clippers lose early, then Griff can move Bledsoe and pick(s) for a player they like plus a sign and trade of Lonzo to make salaries match. Nobody will like it initially, but then they will talk themselves into it. The way of the Pelican fan.

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Pandemic P is still an upgrade for us. Most people would say championship or bust, but it seems Whiffin is just trying to knock on the door as a yearly playoff contender to not be labeled a complete disaster as PBO.. Which is fine...

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

The real darkhorse is Paul George. Small chance, of course, but if Clippers lose early, then Griff can move Bledsoe and pick(s) for a player they like plus a sign and trade of Lonzo to make salaries match. Nobody will like it initially, but then they will talk themselves into it. The way of the Pelican fan.

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Or we have Bledsoe 2.0 with a disgruntled star likely souring the locker room with unprofessionalism.

Which is why I would make a move for Lowry in the off season. It's possible he pulls the same thing, but if I'm comparing the two, I think he is less likely to be unprofessional and will be a better leader that this team needs.

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

Or we have Bledsoe 2.0 with a disgruntled star likely souring the locker room with unprofessionalism.

Which is why I would make a move for Lowry in the off season. It's possible he pulls the same thing, but if I'm comparing the two, I think he is less likely to be unprofessional and will be a better leader that this team needs.

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Lowry is UFA. So it is less likely he would go somewhere he wouldn't want to be. Despite his age, I would love have him here for a couple of years to help set the tone. Further, he could be a perfect complement to Lonzo should we manage somehow to retain him and land Lowry.

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

Or we have Bledsoe 2.0 with a disgruntled star likely souring the locker room with unprofessionalism.

Which is why I would make a move for Lowry in the off season. It's possible he pulls the same thing, but if I'm comparing the two, I think he is less likely to be unprofessional and will be a better leader that this team needs.

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I would like Lowry to be honest. Even if he's a poor poor Chris Paul and a year younger.

Man... the UFA guard class is just ugly old.

Derozan
Lowry
Conley
Paul *Player Option that is hard for him to decline
Dragic
Lou Williams
Derrick Rose

Watch us get someone like DinWiddle... Sadly, Still an Improvement if we dump both Lonzo and Bled.


I hope we do bring in Norman Powell, but that's only possible with a gross overpay.


If I have to make a move.

Sign Powell
Resign Ball

or

Sign and trade Ball
Sign Powell
Pray that NAW and Kira make a leap.


There is not a lot we can do in FA to fix our guard issue. Unless you want to bring in Lowry and I'm 1000% against gambling on short players over the age of 30.Lowry and Powell would be a huge improvement on defense, but there is no sustainability of that in a vacuum. Steven Adams would be an awful fit in that line up. You would have to move Steven Adams, Ball, and Bledose... Probably find a way to get Myles Turner to make that line up work on most nights.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

This team is almost certainly going to finish 10th or 11th in ping pong balls. Meaning there is an extremely high likelihood they will be drafting 10, 11, or 12. I cant see them staying there and just taking another slightly above average, long term prospect at the end of the lottery. Nor can I see them using their draft capital to go move up and take another 19 yr old who is 2-4 years away from helping win games, when the pressure will be on them to win next year. The only way I see Griff keeping the pick is if there really arent any quality players available via trade. But I think he would give it up plus Bledsoe for Larry Nance in a microsecond to give you an idea of the level of player he would prefer to the pick. He will start with Beal and Sabonis and others, but would settle for a Jerami Grant, Nance, etc before he will take another young kid. Why I keep saying people should start studying the late 1st/early 2nd more than the top 15

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hmm trading late lotto picks for young vets. What a novel approach. what could possibly go wrong?

Nobody knows what the future holds for these kids. Great players get taken in those spots all the time. And however low the odds are, we still need to hit on them, at least try and draft real needle movers. Larry Nance is not going to make the difference between Zion staying or leaving, between this being a championship team and not. Denver didnt start pushing the chips in until they already had a young playoff team they drafted. Our position should be the same.

if there are too many young guys you get rid of the ones you dont believe should be part of your core, like Denver did Beasley and Nurkic. It's as simple as that.

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Originally Posted by Pelifan

hmm trading late lotto picks for young vets. What a novel approach. what could possibly go wrong?

Nobody knows what the future holds for these kids. Great players get taken in those spots all the time. And however low the odds are, we still need to hit on them, at least try and draft real needle movers. Larry Nance is not going to make the difference between Zion staying or leaving, between this being a championship team and not. Denver didnt start pushing the chips in until they already had a young playoff team they drafted. Our position should be the same.

if there are too many young guys you get rid of the ones you dont believe should be part of your core, like Denver did Beasley and Nurkic. It's as simple as that.

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Yeah, would hate to pick around the #10 or #12 spot and get some scrub like *checks who has been available in the late lottery over the last ten years* Tyrese Maxey, Desmond Bane, Malachi Flynn, Xavier Tillman, Paul Reed, PJ Washington, Matisse Thybulle, Brandon Clarke, Nic Claxton, Talen Horton Tucker, Miles Bridges, Michael Porter Jr, Donte DiVincenzo, Kevin Huerter, Mitchell Robinson, Gary Trent Jr, De'Anthony Melton, Shake Milton, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Derrick White, Monte Morris, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Beasley, Pascal Siakam, Dejounte Murray, Ivica Zubac, Myles Turner, Devin Booker, etc.

Why would I do that when I could trade the #10 pick to get Larry Nance, who is worse than a huge portion of those players and is also 28 and so has very little likelihood of improving much further?

Thybulle, Washington, Bane, Tillman, Bridges, Porter J, DiVincenzo, Huerter, Robinson, Mitchell, Bam, Collins, Allen, OG, Sabonis, Siakam, Murray, Zubac, Turner, Beasley, and Booker are all better today than Nance is, and of the guys who aren't better (Flynn, Maxey, Reed, THT, etc) they are basically all at least 3 years younger.

If you have faith in your drafting department, why would you trade a lottery pick for someone who on his best day is not as good as potential, and realistic, 10th pick outcomes? Like, we all know that expecting a guy you pick around there to be Bam or Booker is a bit unrealistic, but it's not unreal to suggest that if you draft well this year, there will be guys who can produce Malik Beasley levels of value for a team within their rookie contract hovering around the 10th pick, and that's already better value than you'd get from Nance in the same time period and is probably cheaper and you'd have their full bird rights at the end as well.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Yeah, would hate to pick around the #10 or #12 spot and get some scrub like *checks who has been available in the late lottery over the last ten years* Tyrese Maxey, Desmond Bane, Malachi Flynn, Xavier Tillman, Paul Reed, PJ Washington, Matisse Thybulle, Brandon Clarke, Nic Claxton, Talen Horton Tucker, Miles Bridges, Michael Porter Jr, Donte DiVincenzo, Kevin Huerter, Mitchell Robinson, Gary Trent Jr, De'Anthony Melton, Shake Milton, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Derrick White, Monte Morris, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Beasley, Pascal Siakam, Dejounte Murray, Ivica Zubac, Myles Turner, Devin Booker, etc.

Why would I do that when I could trade the #10 pick to get Larry Nance, who is worse than a huge portion of those players and is also 28 and so has very little likelihood of improving much further?

Thybulle, Washington, Bane, Tillman, Bridges, Porter J, DiVincenzo, Huerter, Robinson, Mitchell, Bam, Collins, Allen, OG, Sabonis, Siakam, Murray, Zubac, Turner, Beasley, and Booker are all better today than Nance is, and of the guys who aren't better (Flynn, Maxey, Reed, THT, etc) they are basically all at least 3 years younger.

If you have faith in your drafting department, why would you trade a lottery pick for someone who on his best day is not as good as potential, and realistic, 10th pick outcomes? Like, we all know that expecting a guy you pick around there to be Bam or Booker is a bit unrealistic, but it's not unreal to suggest that if you draft well this year, there will be guys who can produce Malik Beasley levels of value for a team within their rookie contract hovering around the 10th pick, and that's already better value than you'd get from Nance in the same time period and is probably cheaper and you'd have their full bird rights at the end as well.

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Like you, I'm looking forward to another 18 year old....NOT!!! If they pick, I pray it's Kispert. We are low on our selection of pacifiers.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Yeah, would hate to pick around the #10 or #12 spot and get some scrub like *checks who has been available in the late lottery over the last ten years* Tyrese Maxey, Desmond Bane, Malachi Flynn, Xavier Tillman, Paul Reed, PJ Washington, Matisse Thybulle, Brandon Clarke, Nic Claxton, Talen Horton Tucker, Miles Bridges, Michael Porter Jr, Donte DiVincenzo, Kevin Huerter, Mitchell Robinson, Gary Trent Jr, De'Anthony Melton, Shake Milton, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Derrick White, Monte Morris, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Beasley, Pascal Siakam, Dejounte Murray, Ivica Zubac, Myles Turner, Devin Booker, etc.

Why would I do that when I could trade the #10 pick to get Larry Nance, who is worse than a huge portion of those players and is also 28 and so has very little likelihood of improving much further?

Thybulle, Washington, Bane, Tillman, Bridges, Porter J, DiVincenzo, Huerter, Robinson, Mitchell, Bam, Collins, Allen, OG, Sabonis, Siakam, Murray, Zubac, Turner, Beasley, and Booker are all better today than Nance is, and of the guys who aren't better (Flynn, Maxey, Reed, THT, etc) they are basically all at least 3 years younger.

If you have faith in your drafting department, why would you trade a lottery pick for someone who on his best day is not as good as potential, and realistic, 10th pick outcomes? Like, we all know that expecting a guy you pick around there to be Bam or Booker is a bit unrealistic, but it's not unreal to suggest that if you draft well this year, there will be guys who can produce Malik Beasley levels of value for a team within their rookie contract hovering around the 10th pick, and that's already better value than you'd get from Nance in the same time period and is probably cheaper and you'd have their full bird rights at the end as well.

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I mean I agree with you on alot of this, but you truly have to factor in the accelerated clock we are on. There is a real timeline where we do what you suggest, best case the rookie shows a ton of flashes and we miss the playoffs and the next year is Zion contract extension time, would be a BIG chance he doesn't sign if we don't make the playoffs sure fire.

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

I mean I agree with you on alot of this, but you truly have to factor in the accelerated clock we are on. There is a real timeline where we do what you suggest, best case the rookie shows a ton of flashes and we miss the playoffs and the next year is Zion contract extension time, would be a BIG chance he doesn't sign if we don't make the playoffs sure fire.

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I get what you're saying (though I don't think ''best case'' is that the rookie has flashes, the best case is that they're immediately very good, as some of those guys I mentioned have been) but at the same time it's opportunity cost.

If you have the choice to pick between a guy who is maybe a 6.5/10 player today but is 19 and has tons of room to grow, or a 7/10 player who is 28 and is what he is, I feel like that slight superiority in year 1 is not worth the loss of the development time with the guy who is almost as good anyway and has room to grow. You run a real risk there of not making the playoffs anyway because the guy you got isn't much better than the rookie would have been, and all of a sudden the next year, that rookie is a 7.5/10 and better than the guy you passed him over to get.

I'm not saying that we should draft some complete project with no tools or skills and just hope, but there are real guys in this draft who have legitimate skills which will be functional from day one.

Let's say we get the 10th pick. Either you trade it or you use it. If we trade it and acquire, say, Nance, what does he give us? A long, solid defensive wing who shoots a mediocre 3 ball on mediocre volume and sucks at the FT and is 28 years old. Why not just use it to draft Franz Wagner, who is a long, excellent defensive wing who shoots a mediocre 3 ball on mediocre volume but is better at the FT line and is 19? The odds are that within the length of Zion's rookie deal (the next 2 years) Franz will give you as much value or more than Nance would, and because he's younger his long term growth is much more easy to assume.

Plus, let's just assume the absolute worst and Zion leaves or demands a trade. Who would you rather have, 30 year old Nance looking for what will likely be his last major payday, or 21/22 year old Franz Wagner with 2 years left on his rookie deal and room to develop? I know which I'd prefer.

If you look at it from the perspective of someone getting paid to win games (coach/GM) you'll take the "proven" veteran player over the unknown rookie. There's been a lot of good players drafted in our projected lottery range the last few years (also players not nearly that good but whatever). Heck, we think we might have one in Kira...but, as a perfect example, he's struggled to get rotation minutes all season and isn't really helping us win. Assuming there's pressure from ownership to win (that always seems to be the case here), you're going to trade the pick for a vet every time.

So some village idiot posts that Griff really wanted Larry Nance Jr and offered picks for him, and we just run with that? Nobody asks for proof or receipts or nothing? Just go with it?

I also don't think this franchise is on some accelerated time table. For what? There is still plenty enough time to continue to nail your draft picks, UDFAs, trades, and FAs for this team to legitimately make the playoffs and win a series. Perhaps even be a contender.

Griff is on record that they want to play the long game. This is what the long game looks like. I could have sworn this is what people around here asked for.

Back to the main topic...Isaiah Todd is going to be a steal for somebody.

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Originally Posted by ml wave

If you look at it from the perspective of someone getting paid to win games (coach/GM) you'll take the "proven" veteran player over the unknown rookie. There's been a lot of good players drafted in our projected lottery range the last few years (also players not nearly that good but whatever). Heck, we think we might have one in Kira...but, as a perfect example, he's struggled to get rotation minutes all season and isn't really helping us win. Assuming there's pressure from ownership to win (that always seems to be the case here), you're going to trade the pick for a vet every time.

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And, Kira wouldn't be in the rotation today had NAW and JHart still been available. Even, Naji has benefitted from these two injuries.

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Originally Posted by luckyman

So some village idiot posts that Griff really wanted Larry Nance Jr and offered picks for him, and we just run with that? Nobody asks for proof or receipts or nothing? Just go with it?

I also don't think this franchise is on some accelerated time table. For what? There is still plenty enough time to continue to nail your draft picks, UDFAs, trades, and FAs for this team to legitimately make the playoffs and win a series. Perhaps even be a contender.

Griff is on record that they want to play the long game. This is what the long game looks like. I could have sworn this is what people around here asked for.

Back to the main topic...Isaiah Todd is going to be a steal for somebody.

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I wasn't really assuming that Nance truly is the target, I was just using him as the example to demonstrate the general position I have, since his name had come up. Obviously the logic applies to pretty much any not-great-but-fine rotation guy.

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Originally Posted by luckyman

So some village idiot posts that Griff really wanted Larry Nance Jr and offered picks for him, and we just run with that? Nobody asks for proof or receipts or nothing? Just go with it?

I also don't think this franchise is on some accelerated time table. For what? There is still plenty enough time to continue to nail your draft picks, UDFAs, trades, and FAs for this team to legitimately make the playoffs and win a series. Perhaps even be a contender.

Griff is on record that they want to play the long game. This is what the long game looks like. I could have sworn this is what people around here asked for.

Back to the main topic...Isaiah Todd is going to be a steal for somebody.

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I mean, you always get the future right -- predict things in advance that NOBODY else saw coming. So why dont you just tell us who we will draft so we can avoid all the wasted time and effort and start studying that guy now

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Yeah, would hate to pick around the #10 or #12 spot and get some scrub like *checks who has been available in the late lottery over the last ten years* Tyrese Maxey, Desmond Bane, Malachi Flynn, Xavier Tillman, Paul Reed, PJ Washington, Matisse Thybulle, Brandon Clarke, Nic Claxton, Talen Horton Tucker, Miles Bridges, Michael Porter Jr, Donte DiVincenzo, Kevin Huerter, Mitchell Robinson, Gary Trent Jr, De'Anthony Melton, Shake Milton, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Derrick White, Monte Morris, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Beasley, Pascal Siakam, Dejounte Murray, Ivica Zubac, Myles Turner, Devin Booker, etc.

Why would I do that when I could trade the #10 pick to get Larry Nance, who is worse than a huge portion of those players and is also 28 and so has very little likelihood of improving much further?

Thybulle, Washington, Bane, Tillman, Bridges, Porter J, DiVincenzo, Huerter, Robinson, Mitchell, Bam, Collins, Allen, OG, Sabonis, Siakam, Murray, Zubac, Turner, Beasley, and Booker are all better today than Nance is, and of the guys who aren't better (Flynn, Maxey, Reed, THT, etc) they are basically all at least 3 years younger.

If you have faith in your drafting department, why would you trade a lottery pick for someone who on his best day is not as good as potential, and realistic, 10th pick outcomes? Like, we all know that expecting a guy you pick around there to be Bam or Booker is a bit unrealistic, but it's not unreal to suggest that if you draft well this year, there will be guys who can produce Malik Beasley levels of value for a team within their rookie contract hovering around the 10th pick, and that's already better value than you'd get from Nance in the same time period and is probably cheaper and you'd have their full bird rights at the end as well.

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I would ask again for people to look at the history and log how many guys help the teams who draft them on their rookie contract, at an above average level. It doesnt happen nearly as much as people think. A lot of guys taken in the first round turn out to be quality players. Not nearly as many as you guys might think actually help the team who drafts them. Like, Frank Jackson is likely to be a useful NBA player. He provided nothing to the team who drafted him. This is the norm for role players. So, basically, to get value out of your pick, you gotta get a guy who becomes a good starter or better - which again is rare

People need to stop looking at drafts and count how many guys became good or decent. Start counting how many players provided quality play for the team that drafted them. Its much, much more rare than you think

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I wasn't really assuming that Nance truly is the target, I was just using him as the example to demonstrate the general position I have, since his name had come up. Obviously the logic applies to pretty much any not-great-but-fine rotation guy.

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My post wasn't targeted to you. Again, the village idiot.