1st let me say that this is a much better approach to a discussion that even in your opinion should be a slamdunk.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Mythrol
Now you are making an argument I can understand DT. Makes it a lot easier to take you seriously.
Just to make it clear, here is my argument for Davis over Drummond:
Let's compare shooting 0-3ft -
Drummond took 81% of his shots within 3ft of the goal. He finished those at a 68% rate.
Davis took 40% of his shots within 3ft of the goal. He finished those at a 70% rate.
3-10ft -
Drummond took 17% of his shots between 3-10ft of the goal. He finished those at a 39% rate.
Davis took 21% of his shots between 3-10ft of the goal. He finished those at a 41% rate.
10-16ft -
Drummond took less than 1% of his shots there. At a rate of 25%.
Davis took 18% of his shots there. He finished at a rate of 43%.
Also, only 16% of AD's FG were dunks. 26% of Drummond's were.
Ok, so Davis is a better scorer from every place on the field. But is he as offensively skilled as Drummond or is his offense all transition and put backs?
I don't think there was ever a question about Drummond's range on the court. He's limited. However saying a guy is 2% better statically therefore he's better is the very agrument I make against stats. On the plays how was the spacing? Who was the defender? How much time was left on the shotclock? These are just a handful of question that the raw %'s doesn't answer.
Quote:
Let's go to Synergy and see -
Over 36% of Drummond's offense comes from put backs. In those situations he scored 1.05ppp (point per possession).
13% of Davis' offense is from put backs. In those situations he scored 1.27ppp.
The next highest for Drummond was on cuts. Which accounted for 20% of his offense. At a rate of 1.32ppp.
10% of Davis' offense came from cuts. At a rate of 1.24ppp.
The next highest amount of shots for Drummond came from Transition. 14% of his total offense. At a rate of 1.22ppp.
9% of Davis' offense came from Transition. He finished at a rate of 1.53ppp.
The next highest for Drummond was on Post-Ups. 11% of his total offense. At a rate of 0.71ppp.
14% of Davis's offense came from Post-Ups. At a rate of 0.88ppp.
81% of all of Drummond's offense came from these 4 different areas. No other area does Drummond have over 10% of his offense.
Davis on the other hand has 6 different areas where over 10% of his offense came from. He also had multiple areas where Drummond had less than 1% or no attempts of his total offense from. Davis had attempts from Isolation, Spot-Up, P&R Ball Handler, Off Screens, and Hand Offs. His offensive average out of those sets was 1.02ppp.
Out of 8 different offense plays that they both competed in AD beat Drummond on PPP in 6 of those 8. The two areas Drummond beat AD in was by an average 13.5% better. The 6 areas AD beat Drummond by was by an average 18.4% better. Meaning the areas AD beat Drummond in was by more than the areas Drummond beat AD in.
When you combine this with the fact that only 4 different plays accounted for 81% of Drummond's offense it's clear that AD is more skilled than Drummond.
I love synergy probably my most favorite subscriptions, but there statically breakdown may be some of the worse. I've seen plays logged in for Davis that was actually Ajinca or times where it was suppose to be Drummond and was Monroe instead. I wouldn't place much faith if any in there numbers.
But let's just assume Synergy is spot on. This again proves nothing other than the fact that Drummond is limited in the areas he's affective offensively which we already knew and agree on. This however does not concede that Davis has more skill. It just means being a quality shooter gives you more offensive range.
Quote:
Even when looking at other stats it's clear AD is the better player. For instance even though their Free Throw rates were about 1% apart AD hit them at nearly double the % as Drummond (79.1% for AD compared to 41.8% for Drummond). Because of this even though Drummond had a higher FG % (because 81% of his shots comes from within 3ft of the goal) their TS% was within roughly 1% of each other. AD at 58.2% compared to Drummonds 59.9%. When you realize that AD attempts nearly 50% more shots per game than Drummond you understand exactly how good AD is.
Here you are showing your bias. 2%(roughly) in one area proves Davis is better yet here you are trying to minimize that same 2% (roughly) when it favors Drummond.
Quote:
As a matter of fact there is only 1 area that Drummond clearly beats AD in and that's rebounds. When you look at per game stats AD put up 21pts and 10 rebounds. Drummond averaged 13pts and 13 rebounds. Their defense rebounding was actually only about 4% apart from each other but because Drummond has no range on offense he stays at the rim for putbacks and his offensive rebounding is higher. Overall Drummond has a Total Rebound Rate of 22% compared to Davis' 17%.
However, Davis is far better than Drummond in multiple areas. He has an assist rate that while low is still almost 400% higher than Drummond's (8% compared to 2.2%). He has a block rate that's 67% higher. Also, even though his usage was almost 10% higher (25.2% compared to 16.7%) than Drummond's his turnover rate was actually 23% lower than Drummond. This also tells us that Drummond isn't looked to on the offensive end as average usage rate would be 20%.
Drummond is the better rebounder we agree here. Davis is the better shot blocker we agree here. However Drummond had another great shot blocker on the team in Josh Smith. As far as the assist stats this is as much as a result of coaching and teammeats as it does Drummond vs Davis passing abilities. Davis not turning the ball over is a sign of his inability to create IMO.
Quote:
There are no good defensive stats available to the public so all we are left with is DRtg which they are identical in at 104 and Defensive Win Share which they are within 3/10th of a % of each other in. We are also left with the Synergy stats that say AD ranked 104th in overall defense compared to Drummond at 190th. AD allowed on overage .84 ppp on defense compared to Drummond's .88 ppp (yes that's the difference between 104th and 190th). He allowed .73ppp from Isolation compared to Drummond's .93ppp. Basically every area AD beat Drummond on defense was by 20% or more except for 1 area (he beat him by 5%). There were only 2 areas Drummond was better on the defensive end and by were both better by less than 5%.
Again synergy should not be used to inconsistent.
Quote:
What we have here is overall Davis is the clearly the more skilled offensive player, who even though he takes more shots because of his FT % he actually has a shooting % within 1% of someone who takes over 80% of his shots within 3ft of the basket. When you combine that with Davis' advantage in multiple areas including assists, blocks, turnovers, and defense it's clear that Davis is and will be the better player. It would take Davis regressing and Drummond progressing for the two to be considered even much less Drummond as better.
This is bad logic because you are comparing a guy that was pretty much option #1 with plays drawn up for him to option #4 guy with plays rarely drawn for him. Then saying well since option #1 guys has better stats he is the better skilled player.
Now someone might argue "the eye test, the eye test" but there is no way any eye test will overcome the overwhelming amount of stats that point to Davis being the better player. And besides, in my eye test Davis is better. Don't believe my eyes? Here's Detroit fans before a game in Jan weighing in on the issue - Spoiler - They choose Davis.
Here's an ESPN Insider article from Jan that breaks down both players. Advantage Davis by a mile.
Sure that was last year though, what about the potential for next year? Remember, Drummond is in a situation with a new coach and possibly Monroe or Smith being moved, while Davis gets both Jrue and Ryan Anderson back and adding Asik. Monty has already stated that AD will be the No. 1 option on the team multiple times.
Drummond has shown nothing other than he sits under the basket or cuts toward the basket for put backs and dunks. The thought that he has the ability to be a No. 1 option based off of stats OR eye test is crazy. He simply hasn't shown it in any facet. Also, his FT% is so horrible that he won't be able to even stay in games as the No. 1 option late. Put into perspective Dwight Howard's LOWEST FT % season was 8% HIGHER than Drummond's HIGHEST season. Heck, Shaq's LOWEST FT% season was 5% higher than Drummond's HIGHEST. On average Shaq shot 13% higher than Drummond from FT.
This is not a person who will be a No. 1 option. And the projection that if he increases his offensive attempts he will be better offensively is not necessarily true. He could just as easily get worse offensively with increased attempts. Even Dwight's highest % of attempts from within 3ft season was still over 15% less attempts than Drummond has averaged. Shaw averaged 53% of his offense within 3ft of the basket. That's 27% less than Drummond. As a no. 1 option teams will just pack the paint and make it impossible for Drummond to do anything. Take him out of 3ft of the basket and his numbers TANK.
And as I've already pointed out, Davis is already better than Drummond on Defense. As he adds size and weight he will just get better.
It's not even close.[/QUOTE]