2024 Offseason Thread

https://intheno.substack.com/p/willi...year-in-review

Really good article here from Shamit on Willie Green, as a retrospective. Won't include everything but I thought these few extracts give a good flavour of the article while also putting some of Green's flaws and plus sides into perspective.

Pros:

Defense

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The most easily identifiable hallmark during the Willie Green tenure has been defense. The Pelicans have now enjoyed back to back finishes as a top 6 defense while employing players you may not view as solid defenders. Even during the OKC series, the Pelicans held the Thunder to nearly 10 points below their season’s average offensive rating. There are elements of three point variance positively influencing the defensive rating, but the fundamentals have been sound.

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Buy-in

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Where Stan Van Gundy’s coarse demeanor quickly sapped the joy from much of the Pelicans’ roster, Green’s relatability has guys generally enjoying coming into work. There has never been a complaint of a toxic environment with Green and the “togetherness” has been a large selling point for the franchise. When Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Josh Hart were traded, both showed up to support the team the very next game. Green’s ability to connect has been lauded by hall of famers and created a stable off court environment that the Pelicans desperately needed.

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Cons:

Offense

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The general structure of the offense includes a lamentable lack of player movement. There are also few engineered situations that put defenses in a compromised position or generate a quick basket - particularly threes. There are zero half-court lob plays in their playbook despite having a number of athletes capable of finishing above the rim if just a little creativity was involved.

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Use of the corner

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The Pelicans have spent an embarrassingly large amount of possessions spotting up their non-shooters in these corners. Valanciunas or Williamson would frequently find themselves “spaced out” in the weakside corner while an action took place on the other side of the court. Beyond the positioning of non-shooters, the Pelicans routinely failed to use them in conjunction with good shooters to distract the defense, generate easy looks, or in general pull defenders out of the paint. Van Gundy pioneered the inverted screen and roll action with Zion and JJ Redick that employed several of these principles simultaneously and yet there has been little desire from Green to go back to this look with similar shooters.

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Three Point Failures

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Last season, the Pelicans had a publicly stated goal of attempting 35 threes per game. The Pelicans reached the stated goal 16 times. This season the Pelicans decided to up the ante and made the goal 40 three point attempts per game. They reached this new benchmark only 11 times. Moreover, they would have reached last year’s benchmark of 35 attempts only 29 times - still well under half the games. This is a zero accountability operation.

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Offense dies in exchange for Defense

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Pelicans fans are well versed with Green’s tendency to play defensive vets, but the issue elevated itself this year when Green would bench Valanciunas at half time to play Nance. This concept bore the Pelicans no fruit whatsoever. The Pelicans de facto starters were a -1.1 per 100 possessions. The Nance version was -4.4 per 100 possessions.
[. . .]
The repeated defensive oriented decision making plays itself out in a predictable fashion. Players like Jordan Hawkins, Trey Murphy, Jonas Valanciunas, and Willy Hernangomez have all gotten quick hooks when they underperform on the defensive end. But “Willie Guys” like Naji Marshall, Jose Alvarado, even Josh Richardson and Garrett Temple received an incredibly long leash despite mistakes of their own. Offensive mistakes or ineffectiveness are not held to the same standard.

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Ingram's shot profile, accountability, and culture

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Again, this is a zero accountability system. A “Willie Guy” only loses their minutes after months of an idea not working. It becomes worse when it comes to Brandon Ingram specifically. Green has had no reign over Ingram’s shot diet over the past three years. Ingram has never been challenged to embrace a different playstyle and it has resulted in deteriorating impact year over year. [...]

Three years of this approach made it near impossible to make the tough decisions Green was forced to make when the season was on the line and he benched Ingram in the fourth quarter of the play-in game. If there was a consistent pattern of accountability, perhaps Ingram would have received the benching with more grace. Instead, Ingram was seeing pouting on national television and left the arena in huff. I’m told there was another incident with friction between Green and Ingram on the road after game 2. This is a culture coach without a culture. Good culture allows for accountability. Good vibes do not.

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Originally Posted by hornetsrebirth

Maybe I'm delusional but I think the Pels matchup well against the Wolves.

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Zion puts Gobert in a blender every time they play, it's just how it is. Zion has his number.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

https://intheno.substack.com/p/willi...year-in-review

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read that email at lunch. pretty dark stuff. a ton of issues and the only way out is just to pray that Willie changes or greatly reduce the defensive guys on the roster to force him to play offensive guys. Poverty Pels, baby!

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Originally Posted by b_l_p

read that email at lunch. pretty dark stuff. a ton of issues and the only way out is just to pray that Willie changes or greatly reduce the defensive guys on the roster to force him to play offensive guys. Poverty Pels, baby!

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Saw someone say that part of the way to approach teambuilding is just going to have to involve taking Green's toys away. If you give him offensive players, he will force them to defend and scheme around their weaknesses, we've seen that with positive defensive results from almost everyone on the roster, but if you give him defensive players he will give them minutes regardless of how bad the offense is and won't really do anything creative to offset it.

The result? Just don't give him any players who are only defense. Don't have the guys on the roster to allow him. Build an offensive roster and force him to play offensive guys and build a defense through it, rather than the reverse.

Shamit's article very closely tracks what I've heard and posted earlier, particularly about Ingram.

The story also put me in mind of the "Moneyball" solution of Oakland A's GM Billy Bean when his manager Art Howe wouldn't play the players he wanted on the field: Bean traded all Howe's favorites away forcing him to play the guys Bean wanted to see in the line-up. Griff, you listening...?

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Originally Posted by new city champ

Shamit's article very closely tracks what I've heard and posted earlier, particularly about Ingram.

The story also put me in mind of the "Moneyball" solution of Oakland A's GM Billy Bean when his manager Art Howe wouldn't play the players he wanted on the field: Bean traded all Howe's favorites away forcing him to play the guys Bean wanted to see in the line-up. Griff, you listening...?

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That's what I was saying, so glad to see you're seeing parallels.

Get rid of his favourites. It's a rule for good writing too - kill your darlings.

Green can take offensive players and get them playing successful defense. We've seen it. He can't take good defenders and construct a positive offense. We've also seen that.

The solution? Give him an offensive roster. That's it. Deal with it.

Here is @ShamsCharania confirming what I wrote about in today's substack - Willie Green and Brandon Ingram got into after Game 2 in OKC pic.twitter.com/gVSbzn5L6R

— Shamit Dua (@FearTheBrown) May 7, 2024

Shams confirms that Ingram and Willie Green did indeed get into it ''at game 2'' when Ingram demanded the ball and wanted Green to get it to him, and ''that relationship is something to keep an eye on''.

It's very funny to me, I have to admit, that Ingram asked for a point guard in the post-season exit interviews but refuses to play off ball. Like, what's your deal, man?

He specifically cited Lonzo and Jrue as getting him shots, but he plays next to Zion - a top 10 creator in the NBA this year - and he refuses to take those shots and hates it.

He wants a PG to feed him shots, but doesn't want to play off ball. He can't have both, it's absurd. It's like he's stuck in this uneasy spot where he kinda realises he's not good enough to be the guy and needs other people to set him up, but his ego won't let him accept that. H

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Here is @ShamsCharania confirming what I wrote about in today's substack - Willie Green and Brandon Ingram got into after Game 2 in OKC pic.twitter.com/gVSbzn5L6R

? Shamit Dua (@FearTheBrown) May 7, 2024

Shams confirms that Ingram and Willie Green did indeed get into it ''at game 2'' when Ingram demanded the ball and wanted Green to get it to him, and ''that relationship is something to keep an eye on''.

It's very funny to me, I have to admit, that Ingram asked for a point guard in the post-season exit interviews but refuses to play off ball. Like, what's your deal, man?

He specifically cited Lonzo and Jrue as getting him shots, but he plays next to Zion - a top 10 creator in the NBA this year - and he refuses to take those shots and hates it.

He wants a PG to feed him shots, but doesn't want to play off ball. He can't have both, it's absurd. It's like he's stuck in this uneasy spot where he kinda realises he's not good enough to be the guy and needs other people to set him up, but his ego won't let him accept that. H

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The difference in a true point versus Zion is likely what shots are created. When Zion is at point everyone is just playing off of him and his gravity. With a true point like Lonzo they would be working to get BI shots in areas that he wants them. Basically setting the table for him instead of him just playing off of Zion.

Subtle difference but notable.

A good offensive scheme would allow for Zion to set the table for BI. Which, ironically, is what Borrego's scheme seemed to do early in the year before they abandoned it.

On another note, I couldn't help but notice that the Knicks offense is all iso with very little going on other than Brunson doing his best MJ impersonation. And actually doing it quite well so far.

(MJ pre triangle)

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Originally Posted by P_B_&_G

The difference in a true point versus Zion is likely what shots are created. When Zion is at point everyone is just playing off of him and his gravity. With a true point like Lonzo they would be working to get BI shots in areas that he wants them. Basically setting the table for him instead of him just playing off of Zion.

Subtle difference but notable.

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Except, as I pointed out, that would still require playing off-ball, which BI doesn't like to do and about which he complained to Green in the playoffs.

The difference is that playing off Zion gets him wide open at the 3pt line, which fits Zion, fits the team offense, and fits the year, but isn't Ingram's preference. Other guys would set him up for his own preferred shot profile, sure, but again - why is that anyone's priority. Why is he so obsessed with the team offense fitting him personally, instead of the other way around?

Complains when he's on ball cause he can't create against tough defense, complains when he's off-ball because the other players aren't catering to him enough. Subtle difference, sure, notable, sure, but relevant? Nope. End result's the same - this guy isn't good enough to justify the demands he's making.

Edit: also lol at the idea of Lonzo 'setting the table' for anyone - the whole complaint about Lonzo was that he was afraid to drive, did nothing to impact defenses, and most of his half-court playmaking was just secondary. Couldn't set the table at a restaurant.

Willie Green was asked after Game 1 about the looks Brandon Ingram got against the Thunder. pic.twitter.com/kPf3AbGulV

— Christian Clark (@cclark_13) May 7, 2024

Reminder of what WG said after Game 1. So this was the mindset that BI disagreed with.

Here's the full quote:

''It's not about what we need to do to free BI up, this is gonna be playoff basketball. He's gotta continue to play through it, have some gamesmanship out there, gotta get to the free throw line a bit more. This is what it's gonna be. We're physical with them, they're physical with us, and that's part of the game it's part of playoff basketball. Continue to play with force, play with speed, get quality looks.''

I have big issues with a lot of what WG says and does on offense, but this point of view (you're not gonna get easy looks, they're going to press you and you're going to have to push back, that's the playoffs) is just objectively true. They weren't even that bad compared to how the Wolves or Knicks are treating their opponents.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Saw someone say that part of the way to approach teambuilding is just going to have to involve taking Green's toys away. If you give him offensive players, he will force them to defend and scheme around their weaknesses, we've seen that with positive defensive results from almost everyone on the roster, but if you give him defensive players he will give them minutes regardless of how bad the offense is and won't really do anything creative to offset it.

The result? Just don't give him any players who are only defense. Don't have the guys on the roster to allow him. Build an offensive roster and force him to play offensive guys and build a defense through it, rather than the reverse.

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WG is just not a HC for today's NBA. Offense is a distant 2nd to him. He refuses to play younger offensive players like Hawk, hence they don't develop fast. He's too weak to demand that players like BI play the way he needs to play. And either Griffin is not seeing this or Gayle because of WG's deep religious beliefs has protected him. This team will never be truly successful as long as WG is here or does not adjust his way of thinking

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Originally Posted by djrnno

WG is just not a HC for today's NBA. Offense is a distant 2nd to him. He refuses to play younger offensive players like Hawk, hence they don't develop fast. He's too weak to demand that players like BI play the way he needs to play. And either Griffin is not seeing this or Gayle because of WG's deep religious beliefs has protected him. This team will never be truly successful as long as WG is here or does not adjust his way of thinking

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In a perfect world, I agree and we'd get rid of him. But since he's been extended and is therefore here for at least a couple more years (and Gayle is not going to pay ANOTHER coach who's been fired) we've got to deal with what we've got. So if he's not going, what can we do to try and force his hand?

Get rid of the failsafes and make him uncomfortable.

Well don?t look like they will fire Willie. I would not be surprised is Ingram has already asked for trade. Miami could be a destination for him. Perhaps Philly as well.

We had some clues of friction during the season.

https://www.nola.com/sports/pelicans...aec093959.html

The complete voting results for the 2023-24 Kia NBA Defensive Player of the Year. pic.twitter.com/SpApbyUUw2

— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) May 7, 2024

Congratulations to Herb for coming in 5th in DPOY voting. Well deserved.

Hawks star Trae Young announces he has left Klutch Sports and is now being represented by CAA Sports �� pic.twitter.com/HxmtXyeV0e

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) May 7, 2024

Trae Young leaves Klutch to join CAA.

Other notable CAA clients include: Jonas Valanciunas and Zion Williamson.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

The complete voting results for the 2023-24 Kia NBA Defensive Player of the Year. pic.twitter.com/SpApbyUUw2

— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) May 7, 2024

Congratulations to Herb for coming in 5th in DPOY voting. Well deserved.

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At least he made the list finally. Next year he should move on up

Watching Doncic get defended 1v1 by Dort and, despite having feet as heavy as bricks and no burst, just fry him possession after possession.

Edit: lmao as I post this, he gets injured and then draws a foul immediately. Hope he's okay long term.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Watching Doncic get defended 1v1 by Dort and, despite having feet as heavy as bricks and no burst, just fry him possession after possession.

Edit: lmao as I post this, he gets injured and then draws a foul immediately. Hope he's okay long term.

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Luka is strong though and much taller than Dort. Maybe Ingram needs to hit the weight room lol

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Originally Posted by P_B_&_G

Luka is strong though and much taller than Dort. Maybe Ingram needs to hit the weight room lol

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He's needed to hit the weight room for the last decade, it ain't happening. If anything, the muscle he's put on over the last few years (which is visible, if you look at some pics from the 2021-22 era) has correlated with a decline in his game. I don't think it's the cause, but it's come alongside it.

In any case, nah, the reason Luka has so much more success is that he's

1) Way more willing to play into contact and doesn't shy away from it like BI does
2) Got a far better handle
3) A Vastly superior passer who actually plans where help will come from so he can pass out from hard doubles instead of getting stuck in them
4) A much craftier mover when it comes to controlling pace so he can create imbalances despite not being physically impressive.

It's just a case of there being levels to this. They're a similar height. Luka is stronger, BI is longer. Neither is very fast, neither has a Kyrie level handle, neither has crazy burst. One is just way more willing to embrace contact and is far more skilled. One is a legit super star, the other is a paper tiger who crumbles when you push back on him.

Ingram is such a mid player for us to even be concerned with him. He is basically Jerami Grant with a worse 3 point shot. Dude is not good enough to be defining his own roles on this team. The team plays better without his ball stopping. Addition by subtraction. Would be nice to get anything of value for him, but probably not...

And watching Cason Wallace drill a 3 in crunch time in the playoffs again makes me hate our coach even more. Imagine if we had just given even 1/4 of Ingrams minutes to Hawkins.

Gotta love the way they call fouls for SGA.. Same thing used to happen for Bron. Just run as fast as you can towards the rim, bump into someone and get a foul call. I hate that kind of basketball.

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Originally Posted by ragincaucasian

Ingram is such a mid player for us to even be concerned with him. He is basically Jerami Grant with a worse 3 point shot. Dude is not good enough to be defining his own roles on this team. The team plays better without his ball stopping. Addition by subtraction. Would be nice to get anything of value for him, but probably not...

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I don't want to rag on him too hard because he has developed massively since his time in LA and is a legitimately good player and on some rosters could be a lot more impactful than he is here.

But honestly, yeah I agree. There are players that cause drama and problems but they're worth it because they bring impact. Like him or loathe him, for example, I'm growing warmer and warmer on trading BI for Trae Young because at least Trae Young moves a needle. He presents other issues, but he's worth the headache because he gives you a lot of other things.

BI is not good enough to warrant all the headaches and messes. He's the third best player on a great roster, at best and he acts like he's a number one and the coach caters to him like he's a number one and the front office has pandered like he's a number one, and he's just not. It's absurd.

He's not a factor in winning here. We've been equally good with and without him. We've gone on runs with and without him, and loss streaks with or without him. When he leaves the lineup, the team doesn't suddenly lose the ability to score, and with him it doesn't suddenly get supercharged. The best stretch of basketball this team has played over the last 2 years happened when he was out.

Trade him for a star if you can. You probably can't, so trade him for a good piece or two and some flexibility. If you can't, trade him just for flexibility. I don't care if we have to 'lose' a trade in the short term. Get him gone.

Dae, If given the choice, who fits better on this team? Young or Murray?

Think it's Murray, but have no science behind it.

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Originally Posted by WhyHornetsWhy

Dae, If given the choice, who fits better on this team? Young or Murray?

Think it's Murray, but have no science behind it.

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On paper, purely going on the numbers, Trae is both the better player and the better fit. His three point shooting is more voluminous, he takes them from further out, he's a bigger pullup threat, and as a playmaker while he's limited somewhat by his height, there are only a handful of better pure passers in the NBA.

The only issues I think exist with Trae are in terms of personality. He is reportedly not very popular among other players and other players such as John Collins have reportedly been very unhappy with how much of a ball hog he can be.

Whether those are fair ways to characterise him, I'm not sure. His usage rate has gone down somewhat since they acquired Dejounte, so maybe he's more willing to play off ball if there's another person who can shoulder that task and he just didn't believe in John Collins. I don't know. My concern would be that he would be on ball so much he would prevent Zion from ever being on ball, which is necessary if you want to max out Zion's impact and because Zion is a much taller player and a much more dangerous finisher at the rim, he's probably got the more impactful gravity.

If you're convinced you can get Trae Young to buy into playing off ball at least a little bit (Drop his usage from 30% to 25%, for example) then I probably take him over Dejounte and just deal with the defensive problem.