Originally Posted by
Pelicanidae
I honestly think this will end up being a Celtics deal. I just keep putting myself in Ainge's shoes, and not making this deal doesn't make sense.
If Ainge makes the trade, he can still put a very good team out on the floor next year, even without Brown and Tatum. He's good enough as a GM to add assets through the year, maybe at the trade deadline, and acquiring AD gives them some chance (even if it's only 5%) of keeping Kyrie.
If he passes on AD, then what? Kyrie walks, for certain. AD moves to LA. He rolls out a team next year where an aging Al Horford is possibly their best player. Maybe Tatum takes that leap and becomes their star player, but he's not going to be on Davis' level next year, and definitely not on the level of Davis + Kyrie. With the legitimate risk of Kawhi staying in Toronto, Ainge passing on this trade basically loses them all of their chances at a superstar and locks them into mediocrity.
Not only does it lock them into mediocrity, but it doesn't offer them a clear way out of it: they are out of Brooklyn picks. Their picks this year aren't fantastic. They could possibly have only their own pick next year, if Memphis gets a #6 offer, which is looking likely, especially if they move Conley. After that, they would get the Memphis pick but they would also have had to pay Brown, and will be staring down the barrel of giving Tatum a max.
Ainge passes on AD, they're stuck into being a second round exit for like, the next 3 years, with no clear way to seriously improve.