Pelicans Centric 2022 Top-10 Prospects

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Originally Posted by PaKwAn

If you want shooting Bane would have been great but hindsight is 20/20... i remember a lot of people wanted maxey which would have been great as well. Still can't believe haliburton was just picked 1 slot below, he would have been a perfect fit.

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I wanted Maxey just cause, considering where we were picking (8-13) you cant go wrong picking the kentucky shooting guard

tyler herro pick 13,
devin booket pick 13,
SHAI.G.A. pick 11

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Age, athleticism, handle, pedigree.

If Trey was everything you listed as a prospect, he wouldnt have been projected late 1st/early 2nd up until the final week or two. I think it is a lot of revisionist history, coupled with the fact that we all really like the guy. He wasn't even considered an NBA prospect at Griffin's current age. Griffin is a way better defender than Murphy at the same age. Trey also had some injury things.

But its all a crapshoot. I totally get valuing the sure thing and we know Trey will be in an NBA rotation for the next 10 years. I just would have Griffin's upside as higher and I draft in the lottery on upside. Both are around at pick 19, I take Trey.

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I don't think Griffin is the better athlete, atleast not anymore(if he ever was). And pedigree means jack ****. Give me tangible things. Handle I agree and yeah he's younger. But I don't see Griffin's lateral quickness getting better and for that reason alone, I don't think he'll ever be a plus perimeter defender. His shot looks wonky as hell, Trey's shot was butter.

Griffin and Duren are the two likely top 10 picks, that I think won't live up to their hype.

That’s fine to have your takes and to disagree. What makes the world go round. Pedigree like everything else, is something. Not everything, but something.

It all comes down to whether you want to compare 19 yr old Griffin to 19 yr old Trey. Or 19 yr old Griffin to 21 yr old Trey. The latter is close, the former is not

I would take Johnny Davis over Griffin. AJ just scares the hell out of me lol

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

That’s fine to have your takes and to disagree. What makes the world go round. Pedigree like everything else, is something. Not everything, but something.

It all comes down to whether you want to compare 19 yr old Griffin to 19 yr old Trey. Or 19 yr old Griffin to 21 yr old Trey. The latter is close, the former is not

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Well yeah. To be clear, I'm comparing Trey when he was coming out to Griffin now that's he's coming out. Not the 19 year old versions.

And SFoxx, I would too. 100%.

Basketball players normally peak at about 24 years old. They certainly can get better, but they generally don't have statistical seasons significantly better than they did at 24.

Giannis was 27.7 pts 12.5 rbs 5.9 asts on 57.9% from the field at 24. And he was seen as extremely raw coming out at 19.
LeBron was 28.4 / 7.6 / 7.2
AD was 28.1 / 11.1 / 2.3

And so on. You can occasionally find jumps like James Harden, though he was still incredibly good at 24. So I can see why people want to compare 19 year olds to 21 year olds in terms of ceilings.

But when it comes to AJ Griffin, at least for me, I just don't see it. His shot seems a little slow and he's not very quick. I think he'll be a poor defender and have a lot of altered shots. He also doesn't have ideal size. He's an undersized 3 or a backup 2.

At least for Trey Murphy, the argument is that he's a late bloomer since he was 5'11" as a junior in high school. 6'4" going to college. And 6'7.5" w/o shoes at the draft combine. Supposedly he's now 6'9" without shoes but I'm sure there's some embellishment. He has ideal size for a wing 3&D player and a very quick release.

I do kinda like Bennedict Mathurin, but it remains to be seen if he will be there when the Pelicans pick, depending where (or if?) they land in the lottery. But overall I'm just not a fan of most of the players in this draft. Assuming the pick isn't top 4, I'd be almost equally happy with just trading down or completely out of this draft and picking up a handful of future picks and maybe a role player or two.

Yes I?m just hoping we can land a top 4 pick cause I?ll take any of the top 4 guys. After those 4 I don?t really love anyone.

I guess a fully healthy squad would have a 2 deep looking like this:

C: JV, Jaxson
PF: Zion, Nance
SF: BI, Murphy
SG: Herb, Graham
PG: CJ, Jose

Looking at that the 2 deep, Ivey makes the most sense. It would be nice if we could move Graham this off-season cause that backup backcourt doesn?t work at all. It would be even sweeter if we could package Graham, Jaxson, & maybe even Kira for an experienced guard with some size. I would like to keep Kira though just in case he hits his potential. Maybe throw in a pick as well. Then take Smith, Paolo, or Holmgren.

My ideal 2 deep:

C: JV, Nance
PF: Zion, Paolo
SF: BI, Murphy
SG: Herb, 6?5?/6?6? good vet
PG: CJ, Jose

My gut feeling is that we will get 9, which again is so much better than any of us could have expected with that Lakers pick even two months ago. But a move into the top 4 would be such a massive game changer. Still don’t think they ever win a title but hard to see that not being a contending team from 2024 through the end of the decade if they get lucky tomorrow

My tiers (For lottery, I go all upside. Do not care about floor or even median outcome. The logic behind that is the 2nd contract. You take a guy in the top 10 and either he is gone by the 2nd contract or you are giving him a massive deal. Therefore, why care about median outcome or floor? A "solid" player is only a problem (see: DeAndre Hunter or Cam Reddish, in that you either gotta overpay based on draft position or sell off them for less than the asset you gave up. See Jaxson Hayes, and so on and so forth. Therefore, you either go for upside or you trade out of the top 10 and go get the "solid, fit" guy. Based on that logic, my tiers are:

Tier 1 (There is a world where he can be an MVP Candidate)

1. Chet
2. Paolo
3. Sharpe

Could Chet be Dirk plus Camby defense? I think so. Unlikely, but there is a world. For Paolo, I think people will be shocked at what he will be in the NBA. I see comps of Elton Brand, but I see far closer to Tatum when he gets polish. Or, like a better Shereef Abdur Rahim. And Sharpe is the only other guy who has like a 2 percent chance of being a first team All NBA guy. Could be Zach Lavine plus Bradley Beal having a baby if all goes well. I would have his median outcome around 6-10 in this class, but ceiling is 3 for me.

Tier 2 (Could make an All NBA team or two and a few All Stars)

4. Jaden Ivey
5. Jabari Smith

I keep flipping these two, but my tiebreaker here will be playoff performer and I just want to bet on the self creator in the playoffs. I think it is too easy for a reliant guy to disappear. I think the 5 leading scorers of this upcoming WCF will all be guards. Self creators who can also get some buckets for others. Now, if Jabari becomes an elite defender, it flips back, but I project above average to good, not elite.

Tier 3 (Could make an All Star game or 3)

6. Keegan Murray
7. Dyson Daniels
8. Jeremy Sochan

Murray isnt the best defender, but the dude cares. He cares about everything, and I can easily see him exerting himself more on D if he lands on the Pels and doesnt have as much of a load to carry. Daniels already has a lot of maturity in his game. A floater, smart defense, and cross court vision. And rumor is he will measure around 6'8", and might still grow some more. I have no doubt the 3 will evolve. He makes All Star teams if the mid range and step back become a part of his arsenal. Sochan could be a new age Rodman (Pistons version) with more offensive tools. That is his ceiling IMO.

Tier 4 (Could make a few All Star games but with a lower floor than Tier 3)

9. Ousmane Dieng
10. Ben Mathurin
11. AJ Griffin
12. Jaden Hardy

Dieng is the type of gamble worth taking if you are the Pels and dont have rotation minutes any way right now. His ceiling is higher than anybody's in this tier or below and I would even put it at the level of the guys in the tier above. The floor is just way lower, so he tops this tier. Mathurin could be Mitch Richmond if everything breaks right and Griffin could one day be young Shane Battier but with the ability to average 20. The last guy I see as having a real chance to make a few AS games is Jaden Hardy, who sounds like he has some major maturing to do. But if he gets with the right franchise, he could be the steal of the draft. If someone told me a guy in the 20s makes a few All Star teams, he would be my bet. Both because I think he could fall there and because I think he has that upside.

Meanwhile, if I were to make my highest floors top 10, it would be:

1. Paolo Banchero
2. Jabari Smith
3. Jaden Ivey
4. Chet Holmgren
5. Keegan Murray
6. Malaki Branham
7. Johnny Davis
8. Shaedon Sharpe
9. Jeremy Sochan
10. Benedict Mathurin

Hayes was a high upside pick, was he not? Certainly wasn't a low ceiling, high floor type selection

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

My gut feeling is that we will get 9, which again is so much better than any of us could have expected with that Lakers pick even two months ago. But a move into the top 4 would be such a massive game changer. Still don’t think they ever win a title but hard to see that not being a contending team from 2024 through the end of the decade if they get lucky tomorrow

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Ousmane Dieng is intriguing. Saw a Brandon Ingram comp for him

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Originally Posted by AusPel

Hayes was a high upside pick, was he not? Certainly wasn't a low ceiling, high floor type selection

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He was higher ceiling and he didn’t work. Same with Sekou that year. Accept it, cut bait and move on.

If you hit on 1 in 4 high upside swings, it changes your franchise. Hit 4 for 4 with 4 singles like Hawks did with Hunter, Prince, Cam, etc….it does nothing but give you headaches. If you are gonna swing for the single or double, trade back and do that in the late teens or 20s and grab other assets

My personal philosophy. No philosophy is perfect. But if Pels wanna do that, trade back and get the kid from Kansas or a rotation big like Williams. Don’t do it at 8 because the 2nd contract becomes an issue

I'm on board with Dyson Daniels if we end up at 8 or 9. I hadn't watched him and by description I thought of him as a non-shooting Lonzo, but after watching a couple Ignite games, I'm in. He's immediately a plus perimeter defender and is also a guy who can switch 1-4. He's pretty strong for his frame and off ball is really smart. I think he'll be a beast defensively as he grows into his frame.

I believe in guys who have touch to figure out open catch-and-shoot jumpers at an adequate level, and if he is, he is a 20+ minute playoff player. Unlike Lonzo, I think he has enough change of pace to be credible as a pick-and-roll player. I think he isn't quite the passer Lonzo is, but does some of that connecting and outlet stuff. I like that he can get to the rim and is nice on floaters when he gets there. You can build an offensive game around that stuff.

His effort level is also really good, and he fits in the culture we're trying to build. I think he has the type of frame that get more athletic as he fills out, so there is more upside than he gets credit for.

I really like Mathurin. I left a few games this year thinking there is no way he would on the board at 8-10, if the Pels got the Lakers pick. But its getting so hard for me to justify him over Daniels and Sochan, because of all the areas they can touch the game. And I am confident that one of those two guys will be on the board when the Pels pick. That said, I would still bet on the Pels taking Mathurin. They have liked him for a while and by all accounts he is an awesome kid to boot

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I really like Mathurin. I left a few games this year thinking there is no way he would on the board at 8-10, if the Pels got the Lakers pick. But its getting so hard for me to justify him over Daniels and Sochan, because of all the areas they can touch the game. And I am confident that one of those two guys will be on the board when the Pels pick. That said, I would still bet on the Pels taking Mathurin. They have liked him for a while and by all accounts he is an awesome kid to boot

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I'm pretty easy to please with this pick if the Pels are at 8-9. I think Mathurin is an outstanding fit. I like the versatility of his jumper and his athleticism. I think he eventually figures out defense in a smaller role. I think his ceiling is limited by not really being able to dribble, but the Pels don't really need a guy to dribble. I'd have a hard time picking between him and Daniels if both are available.

I don't think Sochan ever gets guarded on the perimeter, so I am not as much of a fan. I can see Daniels shooting the basketball because his touch is good and the jumper looks fine, although takes forever to get it off. Sochan's numbers are bad, the form looks clunky, he is bad from the line, and there are no reasons to believe he'll fix it except being willing to shoot. Maybe he's just such a worker he figures it out or maybe he is so good at everything else that he's still good, but I fear he ends up being a total nonshooter who isn't really big enough or enough of a rim deterrent to play the 5.

Edit: I still like him as a player on a roster with more shooting, but if Zion and Herb Jones are going to be playing on this team, I think it's hard to have Sochan out there too.

Mathurin can get buckets. That's what we need with our 2nd unit. If we end up at 8 I hope he's still there.

You don’t draft for current needs. Or what your 2nd unit needs next year. This isn’t the NFL. You draft in the lotto for a substantial difference maker, assuming he might make that difference in 3 or 4 years, for the next 8 years…and you have no idea what that 2026 roster will look like

If you want to draft a guy who can help next years team and fits the current roster needs, you trade back into the late teens or early 20s and go get that. But in the rare situations that you have a top 4 or top 8 pick, your current roster and needs shouldn’t even enter your brain. Getting a top 30 player is darn near impossible. The vast majority of top 30 players are drafted in the top 10. When you are drafting up there, your ONLY question should be: Which guy on the board has a chance to one day be a top 30 player? And whatever that answer is…he is your pick

Ben Mathurin is a great cultural fit. Really awesome personality with an amazing journey. If he can develop real handles... He's a no brainer for me. There is just a great avenue for him to develop in a good role.

His role in Arizona was simply to carry offensive workload. If you give him less on his plate. Does that work ethic going into other ares of his game.

At times, he was so hyper focused on offense that maybe he can really blossom in role that needed him to do more than hero ball.

He gots a real dog mentality, tho.

Draft lottery can't happen soon enough. Ready to just focus on three names.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

You don’t draft for current needs. Or what your 2nd unit needs next year. This isn’t the NFL. You draft in the lotto for a substantial difference maker, assuming he might make that difference in 3 or 4 years, for the next 8 years…and you have no idea what that 2026 roster will look like

If you want to draft a guy who can help next years team and fits the current roster needs, you trade back into the late teens or early 20s and go get that. But in the rare situations that you have a top 4 or top 8 pick, your current roster and needs shouldn’t even enter your brain. Getting a top 30 player is darn near impossible. The vast majority of top 30 players are drafted in the top 10. When you are drafting up there, your ONLY question should be: Which guy on the board has a chance to one day be a top 30 player? And whatever that answer is…he is your pick

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Agree that you aren't drafting a guy for next year. Just that if it's close and you have one guy who is a great fit with your core pieces and desired style of play and another guy who, even if things go perfectly, isn't, drafting the guy who fits can make sense. Not saying pick a player you think is significantly inferior, but if you see them as being in the same tier, it's a consideration. It isn't the most important consideration (not saying draft James Wiseman because you have a hole at center or pass up Luka because he doesn't fit with Fox), but IMO it is a consideration. Among other reasons, getting playing time to figure stuff out is important for development. If he can't get on the court because he is redundant with established players or because coach doesn't want to put out a lineup with only one guy who shoots 3s, it's hard to get the reps to develop as well as he might on another roster where the situation makes sense.

I think this is less and less true in the first few picks, because out in the tail of the talent distribution, the difference between players is steeper.

Not you, but I think teams generally use the “when it’s close” or “they are on a similar tier” to justify going fit.

Why I visualize a blank roster. Prevents you from doing that. Again, I won’t be upset with Mathurin. I just don’t see any way that he is the highest guy for me when it comes to our pick. Similar to Kira, who I had 12th and Maxey (who I had 8th) was still on the board. That said, if I was a betting man, I would bet Mathurin is a Pels in a little more than a month

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Originally Posted by PaKwAn

If you want shooting Bane would have been great but hindsight is 20/20... i remember a lot of people wanted maxey which would have been great as well. Still can't believe haliburton was just picked 1 slot below, he would have been a perfect fit.

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I remember getting into intense discussions on here over people who swore up and down that Aaron Nesmith was the best shooter in the draft over Bane, and that Bane was too old and his wingspan was too short.

Everyone has misses - including me, of course - but that one stuck out to me as particularly egregious. It's not hindsight. It was obvious at the time that Bane was going to be a legit NBA player who shot the ball at a super high level and had enough auxiliary skills to evade being considered one dimensional.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I remember getting into intense discussions on here over people who swore up and down that Aaron Nesmith was the best shooter in the draft over Bane, and that Bane was too old and his wingspan was too short.

Everyone has misses - including me, of course - but that one stuck out to me as particularly egregious. It's not hindsight. It was obvious at the time that Bane was going to be a legit NBA player who shot the ball at a super high level and had enough auxiliary skills to evade being considered one dimensional.

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Yeah, I think he was picked 30th, so a lot of teams missed on him.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

My tiers (For lottery, I go all upside. Do not care about floor or even median outcome. The logic behind that is the 2nd contract. You take a guy in the top 10 and either he is gone by the 2nd contract or you are giving him a massive deal. Therefore, why care about median outcome or floor? A "solid" player is only a problem (see: DeAndre Hunter or Cam Reddish, in that you either gotta overpay based on draft position or sell off them for less than the asset you gave up. See Jaxson Hayes, and so on and so forth. Therefore, you either go for upside or you trade out of the top 10 and go get the "solid, fit" guy.

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I like this philosophy. I do have a question, though. How much do you care about how quickly they realize that ceiling? I would assume you'd like to know if they are going to reach that ceiling by the end of their first contract, right? Part of the problem with Jaxson Hayes (and maybe you disagree) is that his ceiling could STILL be very high, and he just has not grown as quickly as we would have liked. Now he's coming up on the end of his rookie contract and we've got to make a decision to make. We could hold on and hope he gets to that ceiling, but it's certainly a risk and likely overpay.

There are VERY few guys who get to that level that don?t show it in their first contract. Conley is an outlier that comes to mind. But very few others. Anfernee Simons seems to be a very late bloomer. But even the super young when drafted guys will show you by the end of year 3 that they will get to that level.

Jaxson Hayes won?t get there. Ever. Our fandom wants him to get there but he won?t. It was worth a swing but he won?t be on this team into his 2nd deal and we won?t live to regret it

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

Yeah, I think he was picked 30th, so a lot of teams missed on him.

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That draft was really good for me to be honest, lots of picks/predictions I made in that draft came true.

My one major regret is that I let people talk me into being fine with Kira at 13 when I had him around 20th before then. I still had Maxey higher than him, but around January during that draft I had Maxey top 10 and Kira around 20-25, and I let people talk me into putting Kira in the same tier. Big mistake, seeing how quickly and how significantly Maxey has been able to make major NBA impact compared to Kira who probably doesn't even earn minutes in our rotation right now. I had other areas where I would make changes with the power of hindsight but that was one place I was right at the time and let myself be swayed.

It's part of why I'm trying to be a bit more cautious this year. I'm probably not going to make my top 10 solid and known until the end of the month, since I started draft stuff late this year.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

That draft was really good for me to be honest, lots of picks/predictions I made in that draft came true.

My one major regret is that I let people talk me into being fine with Kira at 13 when I had him around 20th before then. I still had Maxey higher than him, but around January during that draft I had Maxey top 10 and Kira around 20-25, and I let people talk me into putting Kira in the same tier. Big mistake, seeing how quickly and how significantly Maxey has been able to make major NBA impact compared to Kira who probably doesn't even earn minutes in our rotation right now. I had other areas where I would make changes with the power of hindsight but that was one place I was right at the time and let myself be swayed.

It's part of why I'm trying to be a bit more cautious this year. I'm probably not going to make my top 10 solid and known until the end of the month, since I started draft stuff late this year.

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Spoiler alert, even if all your 2022 predictions come right and you don’t become soiled by members on a small message board, there will be no prize in the mail. If you get everyone wrong, there will be no punishment. It won’t effect your life one bit either way. So just have fun with it and don’t take it so seriously lol

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Spoiler alert, even if all your 2022 predictions come right and you don’t become soiled by members on a small message board, there will be no prize in the mail. If you get everyone wrong, there will be no punishment. It won’t effect your life one bit either way. So just have fun with it and don’t take it so seriously lol

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Some people do things for casual fun. I know this may be difficult for you to understand, but it's true. Some people are capable of taking enjoyment in things. And sometimes, that involves making predictions and finding it interesting and gratifying that they were correct. Don't need a prize, it's just a game. Not sure why you feel the urge to try and rain on every single parade.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Some people do things for casual fun. I know this may be difficult for you to understand, but it's true. Some people are capable of taking enjoyment in things. And sometimes, that involves making predictions and finding it interesting and gratifying that they were correct. Don't need a prize, it's just a game. Not sure why you feel the urge to try and rain on every single parade.

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The irony there is that when Mac actually is right, he feels the need to award himself prizes by constantly mentioning it in his posts so everyone knows it (over and over and over). Some of his draft posts are fun though I admit, even if they end up not holding much weight in how things transpire in reality.

Be interesting to know how Jax's trade value is seen as around the league, compared to say Reddish

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Originally Posted by AusPel

Be interesting to know how Jax's trade value is seen as around the league, compared to say Reddish

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It’s probably similar to “would you rather a turd sandwich or vomit oatmeal.

The sleepers I'll be watching with interest are Jake LaRavia, David Roddy, and Jaylin Williams. LaRavia's a guy who does a little bit of everything, and Roddy has a shot at being this year's Desmond Bane. I can see Jaylin down the line being a bench big with positive impact stats. Imagine two beefy fullbacks like Zion and Roddy on the floor at the same time!

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Originally Posted by Eyquem

The sleepers I'll be watching with interest are Jake LaRavia, David Roddy, and Jaylin Williams. LaRavia's a guy who does a little bit of everything, and Roddy has a shot at being this year's Desmond Bane. I can see Jaylin down the line being a bench big with positive impact stats. Imagine two beefy fullbacks like Zion and Roddy on the floor at the same time!

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Love Roddy. I don't know if it works, but he is really fun to watch.

This year I think Johnny Davis is the guy outside the top 4.


So his career is probably doomed.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Some people do things for casual fun. I know this may be difficult for you to understand, but it's true. Some people are capable of taking enjoyment in things. And sometimes, that involves making predictions and finding it interesting and gratifying that they were correct. Don't need a prize, it's just a game. Not sure why you feel the urge to try and rain on every single parade.

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Actually wasn’t trying to rain. Exactly the opposite. Notice that I said - “don’t take it so seriously. Just have FUN”

Sorry it came off the way you read it. Again, the word fun is literally right there so I don’t know why you took it wrong, but my bad

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Originally Posted by Pelifan

This year I think Johnny Davis is the guy outside the top 4.


So his career is probably doomed.

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If we're ignoring fit, I am as sure about Johnny Davis being a good player as anyone in this draft outside of the top 3. I don't see his combination of craft, size, and strength failing, and I like his competitiveness and strength defensively. He isn't this freak athlete but he is really good at getting to his spots. I think there is a chance he ends up being an awesome defensive player if he is reduced to a smaller role, he was already good and if he isn't having to be this high usage guy on offense like he was at Wisconsin he'll have more in the tank to play even harder defensively. I think offensively he reminds me of CJ and somewhat reminds me of Spencer Dinwiddie. I think the fit with the Pels is not good offensively, but he can really play. I wouldn't be upset if the Pels picked him 8-10.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Sometimes, that involves making predictions and finding it interesting and gratifying that they were correct.

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A common cognitive bias is "hindsight bias" (aka knew-it-all-along) where after an event people tell themselves, "yeah, I knew that would happen." Your predictions about players that are in the draft are the best prevention of you falling prey to this weakness. Also, specifying these predictions and then seeing how you do also helps you improve in the future. So these predictions are more than just fun. Personally, I always knew that Herb Jones would be a defensive stud, the Pelicans would come back from 20 points down at the half against the Lakers and the Pelicans would make the playoffs. /s

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Originally Posted by Biasvasospasm

If we're ignoring fit, I am as sure about Johnny Davis being a good player as anyone in this draft outside of the top 3. I don't see his combination of craft, size, and strength failing, and I like his competitiveness and strength defensively. He isn't this freak athlete but he is really good at getting to his spots. I think there is a chance he ends up being an awesome defensive player if he is reduced to a smaller role, he was already good and if he isn't having to be this high usage guy on offense like he was at Wisconsin he'll have more in the tank to play even harder defensively. I think offensively he reminds me of CJ and somewhat reminds me of Spencer Dinwiddie. I think the fit with the Pels is not good offensively, but he can really play. I wouldn't be upset if the Pels picked him 8-10.

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I am just so worried about his lack of “get by”…the very few times he went against NBA level defenders, he looked like he was stuck in mud

If the organisation believes that CJ is a long term piece and even Val for that matter then we as fans are going to be disappointed.
Both these guys are great for now, but come 2024 and beyond I hope neither are on this team as the foundations should be set and the Team has already been built around BI, Zion, Jones, Murphy and who ever they add between now and 2024.
This draft and drafts in the future should be about asset collection, if those player doesn't pan out to be a Jones or Murphy contributor, then move them for who will be.

Lets hope Griff isn't dumb enough to extend CJ.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

He's 22, has fine but not massively impressive college defense, and he struggles hard to create offensive advantages at a college level. Not a particularly impressive passer, doesn't get to the FT line, and there's reason to suspect that his 3pt% is a bit of an outlier as well.

I'd get it if people were mocking him 15-25, but top 10? Makes no sense.

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Disagree. In particular, and correct me if I'm wrong, but from what I can see his free throw rate was higher than any prospect inside the lottery besides Johnny Davis (Jabari is close) and he gets to the rim and finishes at a high level. In terms of the outside shooting, he shot from the FT line reasonably well (74.8% over his two seasons). It's also not like he almost had a foot on the line when he shot, he would take and make from a couple feet behind the line. He has some weaknesses, for sure, but he plays with force and intelligence and gets to efficient offense. I think he'll continue to score efficiently in the flow of an NBA offense. It's hard to imagine him being a big time creator, but I have a hard time seeing that for most of these guys.

I think he's somewhere between Otto Porter and TJ Warren. I do think he's a bit more athletic than either of those guys, though. Tough, highly productive, pretty good shooter, solid length and athleticism to guard his position. Not a primary, not ideally a secondary, but a really nice tertiary who bring a lot to the table. That may not be what you're looking for with a top 10 pick if you're drafting for ceiling but I think he'll add value on his rookie contract and be a starting caliber NBA forward. I think there are worse picks towards the back end of the top 10.

Obviously Davis isn't really a "blow by" guy. He's someone who depends on his shot-making skills to score. That can be a red flag as guys go up a level, but on the other hand you regularly see guys who aren't elite run-and-jump athletes become good NBA players. I can remember when folks dinged Luka for having a slow first step and no vertical. All true, but as it turns out, so what?

Davis reminds me a little of a guy like Rip Hamilton or maybe more recently a Dillon Brooks up in Memphis (though more prolific). I think he has the skill set to be a strong scoring guard off the bench, a la Tyler Herro, though he's not the outside shooter Herro is. The question is does he have the upside to be in your starting or finishing five eventually and is he too ball dominant to be added to a squad that already has three front-line ball dominators.

At first glance I'd say it's a bad long term fit. I've always thought the ideal SG for the Zion-Pels was a long shooter who could defend 1-3 and go 40% from the arc and 80+% from the stripe on 10-12 attempts a game (Herb may just get there). But Davis interests me as much for his intangibles, defense and competitive mindset as he does for his scoring. If the scouting backs up that he's a bright-lights baller with a chip on his shoulder and a commitment to defense, then I'd be more inclined to take him. That combo of scorer, defender and culture setter is a guy who might just be worth that big second contract in a few years. In the meantime, we really could use a bench scorer to do the job Graham was supposed to do.

Exit note: I'm really interested to see how all these guys in our cloud (Mathurin/Griffin/Davis/Daniels/Sochan/Agbaji) test out and measure out...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by new city champ

Obviously Davis isn't really a "blow by" guy. He's someone who depends on his shot-making skills to score. That can be a red flag as guys go up a level, but on the other hand you regularly see guys who aren't elite run-and-jump athletes become good NBA players. I can remember when folks dinged Luka for having a slow first step and no vertical. All true, but as it turns out, so what?

Davis reminds me a little of a guy like Rip Hamilton or maybe more recently a Dillon Brooks up in Memphis (though more prolific). I think he has the skill set to be a strong scoring guard off the bench, a la Tyler Herro, though he's not the outside shooter Herro is. The question is does he have the upside to be in your starting or finishing five eventually and is he too ball dominant to be added to a squad that already has three front-line ball dominators.

At first glance I'd say it's a bad long term fit. I've always thought the ideal SG for the Zion-Pels was a long shooter who could defend 1-3 and go 40% from the arc and 80+% from the stripe on 10-12 attempts a game (Herb may just get there). But Davis interests me as much for his intangibles, defense and competitive mindset as he does for his scoring. If the scouting backs up that he's a bright-lights baller with a chip on his shoulder and a commitment to defense, then I'd be more inclined to take him. That combo of scorer, defender and culture setter is a guy who might just be worth that big second contract in a few years. In the meantime, we really could use a bench scorer to do the job Graham was supposed to do.

Exit note: I'm really interested to see how all these guys in our cloud (Mathurin/Griffin/Davis/Daniels/Sochan/Agbaji) test out and measure out...

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Doubt any will be made public, but we will get this info in our private workout with Ousmane that Trajan will head up

NBA Combine measurements thus far:
https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine-anthro/

Bennedict Mathurin 6'4.5" w/o shoes and 6'9" wingspan
Shaedon Sharpe at 6'4.25" w/o shoes and 6'11.5" wingspan
Ochai Agbaji at 6'4.5" w/o shoes and 6'10.25" wingspan
Dyson Daniels at 6'6" w/o shoes and 6'10.5" wingspan

FYI, last year's combine had Trey Murphy at 6'7.5" w/o shoes & 7'0" wingspan and Herb Jones at 6'6" w/o shoes and a 7'0.25" wingspan.

I was thinking Mathurin would go 7, but I'm wondering if those measurements might cost him a couple spots.

Daniels got nice measurements. Eason has that kawhi like measurables as well...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bradael

NBA Combine measurements thus far:
https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine-anthro/

Bennedict Mathurin 6'4.5" w/o shoes and 6'9" wingspan

I was thinking Mathurin would go 7, but I'm wondering if those measurements might cost him a couple spots.

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I doubt it. That's pretty good size for a shooting guard and his competition measured about the same. He might go later, but measuring 6'6" in shoes is pretty ideal size at the two so doubt that would be a major reason. He looks about that tall on film, too, so don't think it's a surprising measurement. He's doesn't have +++ length but +3 is fine. Herb and Trey are 3s/4s so should measure larger.

He still has solid measurements, but nothing eye popping which could lead to teams taking a more high risk/high reward player high in the lottery. I'm far more confident right now that he'll fall to 8 than at this point 24 hours ago. His measurements are similar to Josh Hart, Klay Thompson, and Demar Derozan.

Though we'll see as the workouts and interviews progress if there's actually talk about the Pelicans looking seriously at Dieng.

I've heard this name mentioned as a sleeper in the 2nd but it doesn't look like he'll make it that far. He must have a draft promise in the 20s.

Jake LaRavia has pulled out of scrimmaging for tomorrow. Shot it extremely well today, finished first in the 3-point star drilling 18/25.

— Jonathan Wasserman (@NBADraftWass) May 19, 2022

What's y'all thoughts on Leonard Miller? Big day for him tommorow with the scrimmage. Dude is a huge question mark.