AD trade scenarios...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mythrol

For some reason I thought Lavine was a bad 3pt shooter but he's a career 37% guy on 5 attempts a game. He's better than I thought he was overall.

Actually when you compare Lavine at 23 to Bradley Beal at 23 their numbers are pretty close, Beal slightly better shooting % while Lavine gives more rebounding and assists.

I feel like Lakers would still need to pony up at least another 1st especially if they are keeping Ingram but this moves the trade closer to feeling acceptable territory.

---

I hope they get super in win now mode with current state of the Warriors and oversell future picks

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mythrol

Is Beal known for his defense? I assume neither are awesome on the defense but I don't know.

---

Beal is actually a pretty good defender.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

Beal is actually a pretty good defender.

---

Yeah he's no all-defense guy, but he's capable on the defensive end. Lavine, by comparison, is just flat bad.

for 2019 Beal had a 114.4 defensive rating. For example Lavine had a 114.8, Jrue had a 112.5

Defensive rating simply shows how many points a player allows per 100 possessions. ... Defensive rating also eliminates factors like pace of play and minutes played per game. It is also important to note that as opposed to most other basketball stats, lower numbers are better when it comes to defensive rating.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pels4Life

for 2019 he had a 114.4 defensive rating. For example Lavine had a 114.8, Jrue had a 112.5

Defensive rating simply shows how many points a player allows per 100 possessions. ... Defensive rating also eliminates factors like pace of play and minutes played per game. It is also important to note that as opposed to most other basketball stats, lower numbers are better when it comes to defensive rating.

---

I'm confused here. The first number is Beal? So Jrue, Beal, and Lavine were rated closely by that metric?

And Jrue mostly takes on the hardest assignment. Guess the metric doesn't account for that. I dunno.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by msusousaphone

I'm confused here. The first number is Beal? So Jrue, Beal, and Lavine were rated closely by that metric?

And Jrue mostly takes on the hardest assignment. Guess the metric doesn't account for that. I dunno.

---

yes, fixed it for you. Yea i think you are right that metric is not the best measure of defensive skills. Maybe also take into account steals, blocks, and something else if you can't watch every play to know.

Ok cool.

And my tone wasn't condescending or mocking. I really don't watch Eastern conference much so don't know Beal and Lavine well.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by msusousaphone

I'm confused here. The first number is Beal? So Jrue, Beal, and Lavine were rated closely by that metric?

And Jrue mostly takes on the hardest assignment. Guess the metric doesn't account for that. I dunno.

---

2 points on this scale is rather significant.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by msusousaphone

Ok cool.

And my tone wasn't condescending or mocking. I really don't watch Eastern conference much so don't know Beal and Lavine well.

---

Im with you i have to lean on the stats as I mostly focus on the pels and kinda catch the rest on sportscenter

here is the link btw used for defensive rating: https://www.foxsports.com/nba/stats?...tOrder=1&opp=0

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by P_B_&_G

2 points on this scale is rather significant.

---

But significantly better. Last page was Lavine is bad at D. This page is the opposite. And again, not being condescending, really don't know this guy well.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by msusousaphone

But significantly better. Last page was Lavine is bad at D. This page is the opposite. And again, not being condescending, really don't know this guy well.

---

I think what happens is the perception is a combination of other things not shown in the stats. Not even sure myself but there are articles about his defense so there is that.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by msusousaphone

I'm confused here. The first number is Beal? So Jrue, Beal, and Lavine were rated closely by that metric?

And Jrue mostly takes on the hardest assignment. Guess the metric doesn't account for that. I dunno.

---

Defensive rating can be a good metric, and it's definitely worth looking at. If someone has a DRTG of 150, then you can safely assume they're a bad defender. If their DRTG is 90, you can safely assume they're a very good defender. But the middle space can be a little unclear, because as you say, it doesn't account for matchups and it also doesn't account for the quality of the defensive team around you. If you're on a very good defensive team, you can have a pretty good defensive rating even if you're a fairly poor defender. Similarly, as Jrue suffers, you can be a very good individual defender whose defensive rating suffers because you're constantly in lineups with god-awful defenders around you.

So other good places to look include on-off numbers.

Jrue was a +14.5 when he was on the court. That's because our team's offensive rating was +8.6 when he was on the court, and opposing team's was -5.9 from their average.

Beal was a +2 on the court, because although his team was +6.5 with him on the court, the opposing team was also +4.5 on their average. So you can see, he doesn't contribute to team defense the way Jrue does.

For comparison, Lavine was a +2.7, because his team was +3.0 with him on the court, and the opposing team was only +0.3.

Again, not a perfect metric either. A good example of a problem here would be that Bull's opponents only got +0.3 better with Lavine on the floor, but part of that is because their averages were already jacked up playing against Chicago, who are a terrible defensive team anyway. Not much room to get better.

There aren't 'great' defensive metrics, sadly, since offense is what so many people focus on. But it's pretty clear that Beal is a plus on the court, but not a great defender. Lavine is also a plus on the court, but isn't a great defender. Jrue Holiday is Jesus.

After looking at the defensive ratnigs from last season I'm going to go ahead and say that stat is pretty worthless.

Look at this list and convince me it isn't.

https://www.foxsports.com/nba/stats?...0&opp=0&page=3

Example of why:

Jrue is 112.5

Brandon Ingram 112.3

Kyle Kuzma 112.2

Julius Randle 112.1

Dame 112

Stephen Curry 110.1

Jaylen Brown 108.6

Harden at 108 LOL

Kyrie at 107.9

Tatum 107.4

Smart 107.1

Rubio 106.5

Kawhi 105.2

AD 105

Westbrook 103


The lower the number the better. This is not a complete list. Tell me again how Westbrook is a better defender than all of those guys above him?

Seems this is only useful when considered in context with team defense.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 13 - 3

Someone talk! Ainge is not backing down, has no regrets. This is great news for us! Isn’t it?

---

Backing down from what ??? It’s obvious he isn’t offering anything great or the deal would be done . What’s he not backing away from trading us Brown ??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I haven't watched much Bulls. But Lavine did just turn 24 and his PER took a pretty big jump this year:



https://i.ibb.co/QXDGF2h/Screen-Shot...5-18-15-PM.png



He also shot 46.7/37.3/83.2 which is pretty good, while averaging 23.7ppg. He took a jump and has potential.

Like, I said, defensive rating isn't perfect. It does generally give a decent indication, but it's pretty murky in the middle.

A good place to look is on-off numbers.

Equally, if you visit nba.com and look at individual players, you can see who they were defending primarily throughout the year and what those opponents shot when guarded by them.

Example:

Jrue Holiday guarded Kevin Durant for 42 possessions last year, giving up a total of 12 points. That's very good. He also guarded Jimmy Butler for 32 possessions, giving up 8.5 points. Again, very good.

By contrast, Lavine guarded Damyean Dotson for 60 possessions last season, his most guarded opponent, and gave up 19 points. He also guarded Avery Bradley for 48 possessions and gave up 21 points.

Of course, this is still not perfect, because the metrics can sometimes miss a couple of plays, or there can be ambiguity over who is the primary defender sometimes, and there's help to consider. Still, gives a good general indication.

From @Mike_Pelicans: I built an active plyr comparison generator to minimize variance across various per-min metrics. Meant to find players whose cumulative performances (by same age) most resembles Player X's cumulative performance to date. Very new to this, suggestions welcome! pic.twitter.com/uuDz3BN0sV

— Bourbon Street Shots (@BourbonStShots) June 14, 2019

Lakers fans don't like our account? Damn pic.twitter.com/zwSUAYJub9

— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) June 14, 2019

"This is the most uncertain offseason since 2007." Celtics co-owner Wyc Grousbeck grapples with what happened, and is happening, to his team. https://t.co/0q4QxsSZ4G

— Mark Murphy (@Murf56) June 13, 2019

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Jrue Holiday is Jesus.

---

Lol. This was my confusion. The numbers were saying that either there were three Jesuses (the plural of which should be Jesii) or that Jrue was not Jesus. And neither of these sat well with me.

And haha, PB&G. Good catch.

The only thing about LaVine is that I do not like the players that Minnesota develops. They just seem so soft with no killer instinct or defensive intensity or accountability when Weedplate Wiggins, Tinman Towns, Zack where together. They where just so passive and not hungry.

Lakers giving up? Interested in Butler now?

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...nuine-interest

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by msusousaphone

Lol. This was my confusion. The numbers were saying that either there were three Jesuses (the plural of which should be Jesii) or that Jrue was not Jesus. And neither of these sat well with me.

And haha, PB&G. Good catch.

---

Yeah. Jrue really is absolutely fantastic. His on-off numbers are astronomical. +14.5 is insane.

If you compare his +14.5 with some other superstar calibre players, this is what you get:

Giannis Antetokoumnpo: +9.6
James Harden: +9.7
Lebron James: +8.1
Kevin Durant: +16.8
Damian Lillard: 14.6
Kawhi Leonard: +5.5

So you can see, Jrue's actual on-court impact for this team is right up there with the best of the best.

So other than Lakers fans crying. Nothing happened today! While we are at it let us see these forum Lakers fans

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9whXF3i1CIo

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Taker597

The only thing about LaVine is that I do not like the players that Minnesota develops. They just seem so soft with no killer instinct or defensive intensity or accountability when Weedplate Wiggins, Tinman Towns, Zack where together. They where just so passive and not hungry.

---

It must be the weather up there and lack of places to get decent food.

I think Boston is going to take the gamble. It worked for Toronto. Ainge wants a championship now.

Boston could be interested in Jimmy Butler too.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 13 - 3

I think Boston is going to take the gamble. It worked for Toronto. Ainge wants a championship now.

---

I've said before that even if Ainge doesn't cough up every single thing, he can still make a pretty fantastic offer even with a partial shot.

Unless LA can rope in a third team or flip their assets quick, they still don't have anything better than Brown, Smart, filler, #14, #22, and Memphis.

That would leave Boston with Tatum and AD, and they'd still have the #20 pick in this year's draft.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 13 - 3

Boston could be interested in Jimmy Butler too.

---

They are capped out and he opted out of his contract. I suppose a S&T is possible but they can't just sign him.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

Have you seen many of his games?

---

I meant it more like "damn, you've actually watched him?"

I'm very suspicious of folks who speak matter-of-factly about prospects. Also stock pickers.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Primetime

I meant it more like "damn, you've actually watched him?"

I'm very suspicious of folks who speak matter-of-factly about prospects. Also stock pickers.

---

I speak matter of factly because I think the ''in my opinion'' is heavily implied in forum posts.

Happy to admit I could be completely wrong, and like I said, it's not even like I was dissing him in the first place. Still think he'd be a good pick somewhere around #15, just wouldn't be my first choice for a SF/PF tweener in today's NBA.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I speak matter of factly because I think the ''in my opinion'' is heavily implied in forum posts.

Happy to admit I could be completely wrong, and like I said, it's not even like I was dissing him in the first place. Still think he'd be a good pick somewhere around #15, just wouldn't be my first choice for a SF/PF tweener in today's NBA.

---

Just an FYI...I read your posts with a British accent. Ha ha ha

Does Boston have to gamble? Is it possible that it's in both Griffin and Ainge's best interest to use AD as bait for the Celtics? For example, if you want let's say Kemba Walker or whoever, you can let the player know once FA starts that if he signs w/Boston, they'll pull the trigger on AD trade. So Celtics get the benefit of AD and lessen the risk.

It's not like the Lakers trade is going anywhere. The only downside is you get whoever they draft at four.

Well, Lakers are only working out 2nd round picks. Maybe a little overconfident

I thought we were fixating on the trade but the laker thread is over a thousand.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rampart

I thought we were fixating on the trade but the laker thread is over a thousand.

---

Ah but what proportion is that? The Lakers fanbase includes most people from LA, but also massive amounts of hype-hopping non-LA natives, and all the Lebron fans. So they may 1000 pages, but that might be 1000 pages for a 10,000,000 strong fanbase. 118 pages for a much, much, much smaller fanbase is far more impressive.

I think news starts to break this weekend on where AD is going.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by WildlifeAirGrp

That's a winner in my eyes. Especially, when AD goes down for about 35 games that 2020 pick will be worth something. Also, getting Solo off the books washes away the stench that Demps left behind.

---

geezus Christ are you insane? that's us getting raped while the other 2 teams get better wow

Sent from my SM-S903VL using Tapatalk

"Ah but what proportion is that? The Lakers fanbase includes most people from LA, but also massive amounts of hype-hopping non-LA natives, and all the Lebron fans. So they may 1000 pages, but that might be 1000 pages for a 10,000,000 strong fanbase. 118 pages for a much, much, much smaller fanbase is far more impressive."

good point ! I\d rather be proud of us over laughing at them any day anyways :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bahmamamba

geezus Christ are you insane? that's us getting raped while the other 2 teams get better wow

Sent from my SM-S903VL using Tapatalk

---

Don't know why we wanna ruin the trade by forcing Hill in it. He's an expiring. Just let it run its course and keep our assets

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Taker597

Don't know why we wanna ruin the trade by forcing Hill in it. He's an expiring. Just let it run its course and keep our assets

---

Exactly. A couple of people have made trades here and there that include us packaging a second or even a future first or something to get off Solo's contract, and I just can't see why.

Like you said. He's expiring, and having a big expiring contract is an asset, when you aren't really trying to contend this year. Keep it, enjoy letting him bench ride, let him come off the books next summer and give us $11m in cap space.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Taker597

Don't know why we wanna ruin the trade by forcing Hill in it. He's an expiring. Just let it run its course and keep our assets

---

All depends. If moving hill allows us to sign a good player to a long term deal then it's fine to include him even if it lessens an asset that we get.

If it frees up 20m+ and we sign Brogdon with the space we otherwise wouldn't have, would you still say it's ruining the trade by forcing Hill in it?

The Pelicans are operating multiple steps ahead so just because Hill is in the trade doesn't mean they don't have a plan.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Exactly. A couple of people have made trades here and there that include us packaging a second or even a future first or something to get off Solo's contract, and I just can't see why.

Like you said. He's expiring, and having a big expiring contract is an asset, when you aren't really trying to contend this year. Keep it, enjoy letting him bench ride, let him come off the books next summer and give us $11m in cap space.

---

They ARE trying to compete this year. Griff, Gentry, all of them have already said as much.

As much as we might want a full rebuild it's not happening.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Exactly. A couple of people have made trades here and there that include us packaging a second or even a future first or something to get off Solo's contract, and I just can't see why.

Like you said. He's expiring, and having a big expiring contract is an asset, when you aren't really trying to contend this year. Keep it, enjoy letting him bench ride, let him come off the books next summer and give us $11m in cap space.

---

I wouldn’t sacrifice a lot to get him thrown into the deal, but without knowing how Griff intends to use cap space this summer it’s hard to judge in a vacuum.

There’s also value to culture and lockeroom to get rid of an unhappy vet. You think Solo will be happy to ride the bench again before going into his free agency? He was annoyed with how much run he got last year! I’d expect him to be a malcontent again if he’s not traded.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mythrol

They ARE trying to compete this year. Griff, Gentry, all of them have already said as much.

As much as we might want a full rebuild it's not happening.

---

I think there's a tangible difference between trying to compete, and trying to be competitive.

Griff has said time and time and time again that he does NOT want to emulate his actions in Cleveland, and that he wants to build sustained, ''generational'' success. You don't do that by rushing to win now. He specifically said the Cleveland model, where he threw asset after asset to win now, to be instantly competitive, was a product of having Lebron James and was ''not sustainable''.

Of course Griff doesn't want to put out a 15 win team next year, and if he can have us make the playoffs, he will try to do that. But he's not going to make obviously silly moves that handicap the franchise long term just to sneak into the playoffs as the 8th seed next year. If he can package Solo in a way that's smart and makes sense for the future to acquire a long term asset, he will, but I doubt he's going to start packaging off young players or assets just to get rid of Solos expiring.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mythrol

All depends. If moving hill allows us to sign a good player to a long term deal then it's fine to include him even if it lessens an asset that we get.

If it frees up 20m+ and we sign Brogdon with the space we otherwise wouldn't have, would you still say it's ruining the trade by forcing Hill in it?

The Pelicans are operating multiple steps ahead so just because Hill is in the trade doesn't mean they don't have a plan.

---

Well, we could dump Hill someway else with all our 2nd round picks from Mil. We aren't the hottest FA spot at the moment. If we could draw in Bro. Then, you get the pieces moving to dump Hill. I would consider it highly unlikely at the moment
Which makes me sad.. I'd like to get in a nice player like Brog.

Who is talking about throwing assets away to move Hill? The entire premise was him being included in the AD trade not giving up assets to move him.

If, like you guys are saying, having an expiring is an asset at the deadline why would it even cost a lot to move Hill? Like I pointed out, if it allows us to sign Brogdon then I'm 200% behind doing it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Taker597

Well, we could dump Hill someway else with all our 2nd round picks from Mil. We aren't the hottest FA spot at the moment. If we could draw in Bro. Then, you get the pieces moving to dump Hill. I would consider it highly unlikely at the moment
Which makes me sad.. I'd like to get in a nice player like Brog.

---

Why waste assets on that when he can be used as a filler in an AD trade?

Yes if we can move Hill we need to do that...if it some how is just a extra thing. Freeing up that cap space allows us to add someone on July 1 that may add to the team substantially. Hill is set to make $12,758,781 this year....Zach Lavine is set to make 19.5m. If that trade happens it almost pays for his salary.