and, he is right
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and, he is right
Would normally agree. However, we are not in the "building a team" mode as Philly was. We have Davis and Cousins and have chosen Holiday as the 3rd. There is not time to "build a team" when you have committed to three stars. It would be nice to fill in with youth and cheaper salaries to offset the top 3 salaries, but we are not in the building mode. We are in mode of filling a team around the 3.
First, I've never said your posts were ignorant even though I think they are. We are having a back and forth. It weakens your position when you must resort to name-calling instead of addressing my points.
Second, what does 5 years of a player matter if he sucks? That's the whole point I'm making. Statics show that mid to late 1st rounders have just as good of odds as busting as they do even becoming a rotational player. We have 1.5 years of Niko + his Birds Rights. Who knows what will happen in that time frame, maybe we end up extending him or he balls out the rest of the year and another team during the summer really wants him so we get other players that help the team.
Niko is proven that he can at the least be a 30mins per game player. I'd rather 1.5 years of that plus flexibility with moving him plus dumping Asik than 5 years of a person who could just as easily become a bust as even an off the bench rotation player.
On what planet is a rookie guranteed to be on one roster at least 5 years? That's slightly longer than the average tenure of an NBA player...period. Plus NBA players switch teamns an average 2.5 times in that time frame.
The point in building a team is to add talent no matter how it comes. Al Farouq Aminu was a high lottery pick. He came here now he's somewhere else.
It's great to want to build a team strictly with picks but the odds on that are long. It's not an optimal nor efficient approach.
Can we stop propogating this myth that a rookie can't contribute by the time Davis' contract ends. Let's look at guys drafted from 12-17 the last few years, the likely range of our pick before the Mirotic deal. I'm putting an x next to guys I'd rather have right now (considering the fact they would be on 4 year rookie contracts) than Mirotic.
2018
Kennard x
Mitchell x
Adebayo x
Justin Jackson
Justin Patton
DJ Wilson
2016 (historically bad draft)
Taurean Prince x
Papagiannis
Valentine x
Hernangomez
Gershon Yabusele
Wade Baldwin
2015
Trey Lyles (still wouldnt be mad, kid is 22 y/o and playing well)
Devin Booker x
Cameron Payne
Oubre Jr x
Rozier
Vaughn
2014
Saric x
Lavine x
Warren x
Adrien Payne
Nurkic x
James Young
2013 has Giannis, Schroder, Olynyk, Adams so I didnt just stop when I got to a bad season.
So yea considering that you would have these guys for cheap for 4 years. I'd say there is a little worse than 50% chance you draft a rotation player you'd be very happy with in this range. And most of the guys with x's next to them were key contributors by their 2nd season and that's well before Davis makes his decision. You keep this 2018 pick for at least 4 seasons beyond this one. I don't see how we keep Mirotic beyond 1 with our cap situation. A win now move would have been there next season and you leave yourself with more opportunites by having both a 2018 rookie and your 2019 first available to trade packaged with Ajinca and Asik's only 3 million gtd beyond this season. A rebuilding team prefers Asik and a pick over Mirotic. We just saw one do that, how was that ever even up to debate in the first place. And the closer Asik gets to the end of his deal the easier he becomes to trade. The closer Mirotic gets to his the harder it becomes to recoup full value for him.
That range is irrelevant because it will not fall in there. You're starting in the lottery to pull players. Even without trading for Mirotic the Clippers are tanking so we would make the playoffs as the 8th seed. Your range should be 15+.
We are currently 17th and that is likely to rise, possibly as high as 22nd if we get the 6th seed.
When assessing Mirotic’s trade value, it’s kind of ridiculous to think of it in binary terms. If a team you are looking to acquire their asset from desires young talent and a pick, that’s pretty easy, you just package Mirotic to a third team that has that and use it in your trade.
That is what separates Mirotic from the sort of truly high risk moves Demps has made in the past, barring injury, unlike Asik/Ajinca/Evans/Jrue before this season/Hill/Gordon, you aren’t acquiring players that have to out-perform(sometimes vastly so) their current known output to be moveable and a neutral/positive asset.
So almost every player you marked as a positive are in the 12-14 range. For the Pelicans to get to that level this year with only 32 games left, we would have to either hope the bad teams start playing well or we start really tanking as we are around 18th now. It would take us playing to about 7-10 games under .500 the rest of the way to get into that range if the bad teams keep playing at the same pace (and no other teams between us now and that level start playing badly). The bottom 9-10 teams are probably "uncatchable" at this point. So, we would be having to tank to get into that 11-14 range. It could have happened, but I would hope AD and Jrue would play well enough to avoid that kind of a meltdown. I would think 16-19 could have been a reasonable range before the trade if they did not play well, but just a guess.
Being able to draft players is important regardless of small or big market. It's nicer for smaller markets cause it's straight scouting meaning market size doesn't matter. Combine that with the relative cheap cost and the risk of a draft pick is relatively low, whereas a FA comes with a higher price tag and therefore, higher risk. I'm fine with the Mirotic trade, but it needs to be mentioned that the Bulls took our deal because NO ONE ELSE was willing to deal a 1st rounder.
You have to be able to assess talent. Whether it's draft, trade, or FA. But the lowest risk acquisitions are still draft picks.
Saying your post is ignorant isn't name calling. The idea that you are arguing based on something that's an unknown as if it's a given is an ignorant way to approach tue situation. It would be the same if I said we'll missing out on our new superstar player with this draft pick we traded. How could I possibly know.
Of course if we draft a bad player none of it matters but nothing is certain. We are talking percentages here and the benefits of hitting on a rookie. As opposed to trading for players that are already on their 2nd or 3rd contracts. Even if Niko comes here and steps his game up we are still looking at a situation where it still doesn't help us get closer to title contention.
A rookie contract is guaranteed by the team for 5 years. That doesn't mean the player will last that long.
The odds of small market teams winning via FA and trades are even less which is the point. There's no easy way again just percentages and the numbers favor the draft for good reasons. That I've explained a lot around here.
Yea, no question. At the end of the day, I think it's important to actually compare money as opposed to just players as well. I put this on another forum, but Asik has cost us:
2014: 8.3
2015: 9.2
2016: 9.9
2017: 10.5
Whereas, Sam Dekker, the 18th pick that was traded for Asik has cost:
2015: 1.6
2016: 1.7
2018: 1.8
That's painful to read.
I dont think the Clippers plan is to tank. Sure they traded Blake but unless Lou goes they will be surprisingly competitive. We've seen this team without Cousins and it was a 35 win basketball team. I think it would have been rather easy to fall out of the playoffs. I could do 14-19 and I think you'd still be suruprised at just how many rotation players you can get in that range.
The 6th seed would be very optimistic at this point. The Blazers are playing really good basketball right now.
"Even if Niko comes here and steps his game up we are still looking at a situation where it still doesn't help us get closer to title contention." Bruh!!! You just need to stop. You mean to tell us that if he improves from his current 17 and 7 as a backup, that he won't help us get any closer to a title!? He's exactly who we need if he keeps up that production. You are being ignorant just for the sake of it, I think. Because if you believe what you said, then oy vey!!
For the reccord I dug up the Asik from Houston trade and Primetime and I were among the ones most vocally against it. PELICANSFAN didnt seem thrilled with the price tag. I dont trash every NO move either. And was happy to eat crow in the instance I was wrong (the Qpon from Memphis deal). I'm hoping this is one of those where I am. But I think Mirotic has to play like an allstar for that to happen and we have to make the 2nd round either this season or next season.
to be fair, 17 and 7 in 25 minutes per game in 25 games is not a large enough sample size. The last 3 years he's been a 10ppg player and more of a volume shooter and has looked really uncomfortable in his role. I think given how talented he is he is much closer to this 25 and 10 of player than the level of production he had then, but I think it's fair to be critical of what he might bring. It's not like this guy has ever been a consistent starter before, and I think it's jumping to conlusions to prorate his level of play with the Bulls in a truly breakout season accross starters minutes.
That trade for me was just bonehead overthinking. Between his deal only lasting a year + injury issues + the NBA is becoming more athletic, not bigger, it just seemed like an idiotic trade. Plus, we had no idea what to expect in that following year. That pick could have easily landed at like 5 or 6. Thank god it didn't.
This Mirotic trade is different for me because I think we can roughly state where that pick will land -- 13-21 -- and we get Asik off the books. Plus we badly need frontcourt help and it's nice to add shooting. That said, it'd be great if Mirotic goes off and we can move him ahead of next year's trade deadline cause we can't spend all our money on frontcourt players.
Yes if Niko balls out this year and next he could be on another team. Now you get my point? When you don't have control over a player long term it's a crap shoot. As I said there's no guarantee we have Boogie next year and if you could guarantee it he still may not be 100% til 2020 season. These are all the factors that should be considered. Bruh.
The Clippers will tank. They are currently working to trade Williams and Jordan as we speak. They have no interest in winning basketball for the rest of this season or making the playoffs. That just hurts their pick. Any discussion of what we could have gotten should be from the 15 spot and up, out of the lottery.
Or he could stay here since we have his rights. Or he could be part of another trade to get us a star.
You call my opinion ignorant because it's speaking to the unknown then you turn around and make sweeping statements about the impact that Mirotic could have on our contention moving forward which is completely unknown to us.
There is a world where Mirotic ends up being worth more than whoever we would have picked at that spot and we got him as well as dumped Asik's contract for less than the value of the 1st anyway because we got a 2nd back.
This insistence that building through the draft is the best way for a small market is based on nothing but more of the unknown that you claim I speak to. 1 small market team has built through the draft and won it (SA). 1 small market team drafted a superstar then traded their way to a championship (Dallas). There's no overwhelming evidence that drafting is the best way.
All methods are based around making smart moves when possible, and being extremely extremely lucky. We are in a better, more flexible position as a team Moving forward than we were 48 hours ago.
I'm nowhere near saying this trade was as bad as that one. In comparison this trade is miles better. But first round picks are aslo held in much higher regard now.
The point is most people really liked the trade. And it turned out to be a mistake because Asik was not worth retaining. For Mirotic I don't even think it's possible to retain him if he plays at or above the expectations of a guy you trade a first for. He'll be too expensive to afford with the Holiday, Davis, Cousins core. And Utah and LAC have had a very difficult time recieving the value they want for Favors and DAJ and we will be in a similar situation with Mirotic next year around this time.
I would have held out for a better trade or take the 30-50% chance we find a really good rotation player with that first round draft pick... at least if I had any faith in Demps to scout. A minor Ajinca move was called for imo.
A fully protected pick makes it even better. If we go to the playoffs than we get some playoff experience and helps Boogie resign. If we don’t make it to the playoffs than we get a lottery player.
There's two points to make regarding the draft and I don't think anyone is saying that there's no other way.
1. The cost of an NBA draft pick is incredibly cheap. For example: the 4th pick in the draft should perform on average as well as who? Whoever that player is, the draft pick is likely way cheaper. Yes, the vet and the rookie have different chances of busting, but you can make a mistake with a rookie and it won't strangle your money and future options. Draft picks are also so cheap that it leaves you room for other FAs. So no one, I don't think, is discounting trades and FA. It's just that draft picks are noticeably cheap.
2. The draft is where you're on even ground with everyone. Whether you're drafting 5th or the Rockets are drafting, it's completely up to scouting. There is no distinct advantage by virtue of being a bigger organization or market. In FA, if the Pelicans and Rockets have the same price tag on a player, most times that player will be a Rocket. Therefore, there is a disadvantage built-in vs bigger name teams and markets. Not always of course, but many times. This doesn't come up in drafts.
As you pointed out, all methods are based around making smart moves. But the following is I think important given the conversation: are draft picks paid correctly? By that I mean, has the NBA correctly assigned salary to draft picks at each slot.
Where has anybody said anything differently? The only point of contention is probability. Draft picks allow for more flexibility therefore allow for more mistakes. Draft picks have similar if not greater reward as young vets with significantly less risk. That to me seems like the obvious choice in our cases where the franchise has struggled mightly to recruit top end FA's.
I think this is the core of our issue. We disagree on this fundamental point. Mid to late 1st round picks based off of statistics do not possess greater reward with less significantly less risk. That's the entire point I'm making, the draft is a crap shot especially outside of the lottery.
Young vets are a MUCH safer bet.
Terrence Jones is back. Between the two, the pump fakeage will dominate the universe.
Terrence Jones is finalizing a 10-day deal with the Pelicans.
Since being waived by the Bucks, Jones had a short stint in China and then made his way to the G-League where he's been lighting it up. The Pelicans missed out on the Greg Monroe sweepstakes, but they were able to bring in Nikola Mirotic. Jones can play the four and five and could potentially carve out a nice role up front, but we'll have to see how the Pelicans use him before recommending him as an add. Coach Alvin Gentry thinks Dante Cunningham is a Hall-of-Famer, but Jones is the better player and is worth keeping an eye on.
per Rotoworld
✔
@ShamsCharania
The New Orleans Pelicans are finalizing a 10-day contract with forward Terrence Jones, league sources tell Yahoo Sports.
Did something bad happen between the Pels and Terrence Jones when he got released? Kushner and Oleh Kosel were saying that there was possibly bad blood between the two parties but I don’t remember that.
I know Jones demanded to be released whenever Cousins was traded for so we did just that.
Maybe there was some hard feelings by how he left but nothing specific was mentioned that I remember.
Whatever it was, they are clearly over it because winning is all that matters.
Aaaand, No T-Jones afterall....Sources: New Orleans has changed course on deal with Jones and won’t complete it, and will leave roster spots open for now. https://t.co/81qH9kcGLB
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) February 3, 2018
Alright...
Well let's see where this goes.
Orlando perpetually builds through the draft and they are essentially in the same spot they were 5 years ago
I think something people are missing when they talk about, say, San Antonio "building through the draft" is that they had spent 10 years sitting on David Robinson and achieving basically nothing until Tim Duncan fell into their laps. It was only then, when they had a top ten C of all time + arguably the greatest PF of all time that they made waves: and Duncan wasn't your typical rookie. He'd stayed in college all four years, he was NBA ready.
As for Parker and Ginobili, that's so unlikely that even the Spurs haven't been able to repeat their success drafting that low again, in over another decade.
The Spurs are a terrible example to try and follow because they essentially lucked into it at first.
Jones will have to break the laws of physics on some other team.