NBA DRAFT 2020 DISCUSSION

So there's a super quick, lefty 6'5" point guard who finishes well around mid-range and inside, with a penchant for running the pick and roll and throwing pinpoint dimes? And his name is Killian Hayes?

He's like one of my NBA 2K CAPs was made real.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlIJY3SCUh4

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Originally Posted by Eman5805

So there's a super quick, lefty 6'5" point guard who finishes well around mid-range and inside, with a penchant for running the pick and roll and throwing pinpoint dimes? And his name is Killian Hayes?

He's like one of my NBA 2K CAPs was made real.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlIJY3SCUh4

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Yeah this is who Mac is talking about as his guy to keep an eye on.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I like a lot of the same guys you like but I'd urge you to look more at Killian Hayes. I have more faith in him than both Ball and your boy Mannion.

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I've heard a lot of good stuff about Killian, but I've yet to really watch him outside of highlight clips which can obviously be an incomplete picture. He's definitely on the list though, and I've seen some people with opinions I trust put him as high as #2 on their early draft boards.

I have worked with some of his former coaches in the past and they all swear he has the "it" factor. Humble, incredibly hard worker, and sees the game like a 10 year NBA vet at 18 years old. Sometimes is too risky, but historically turnovers are the easiest thing for a young guard to improve upon. Comes with time. The stroke is solid, just starts a little too low off the dribble IMO. All correctable things. But the things he has naturally cant be taught.

I think Edwards is in a class all by himself. But I got Hayes in that next tier with 4 or 5 other guys

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I have worked with some of his former coaches in the past and they all swear he has the "it" factor. Humble, incredibly hard worker, and sees the game like a 10 year NBA vet at 18 years old. Sometimes is too risky, but historically turnovers are the easiest thing for a young guard to improve upon. Comes with time. The stroke is solid, just starts a little too low off the dribble IMO. All correctable things. But the things he has naturally cant be taught.

I think Edwards is in a class all by himself. But I got Hayes in that next tier with 4 or 5 other guys

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Turnovers in young guards are like fouls in young bigs, to me. Unless they're just off the scale, I generally ignore them. Obviously an ability to avoid them is handy, and the younger you can master that the better, but there are plenty of young guards who turn it over a lot and still end up being great. It's a concern, but not a disqualifying one.

For a lot of my evaluation, feel is one of the primary factors. Obviously you can't ignore the reality of someone just being really good, but most prospects aren't just clear stars in waiting no matter what their production may or may not say. The important factor is feel; positioning, timing, hustle, vision: the stuff that you say (correctly) ''naturally can't be taught''.

Hayes has shown that in a bunch of the clips I've seen. His PnR passing seems to be almost second nature, for example. But I just need to actually watch a couple of full games, start to finish, to see how much those clips are legitimate representations of his game, or if they're just the best of the lot.

Doing some more Anthony Edwards scouting, this time from the Georgia vs SMU game.

Pros:
- Moving fairly well off-ball in the early stages of the game. Nothing crazy, he's not some cutting dynamo, but it's obvious that there are some instincts there that could be exploited and perhaps amplified on a good offense.
- Solid defensive activity, staying attached to his man and moving into switches without complication. Keeps his head up on defense and doesn't keep his eyes glued solely to the ball. This is an improvement from the early Maui game I wrote up earlier in this thread, where he was really dis-engaged when defending off ball. Again, still not a savant on this end but there is some improvement.
- Willing passer. Doesn't have the craziest arsenal of passes and his vision isn't fantastic, but he's happy to move the ball and gives it up to teammates consistently for the sake of the offense. Love that from such a highly touted prospect.
- Solid body control. There's a nice finish here at 15:30 on the clock in the first half where he goes between two defenders, takes the contact, and finishes with his right over the second defender without ever really looking in trouble or out of control. There's another at 18:45 of the second half where he catches the ball off a slightly late pass so he's right beneath the basket and finishes it at an odd angle off the glass. Just nice to see.
- Another example of his shot-blocking potential that he showed back in Maui, where he tracks the ball well in the air even after he's taken off and manages to swat it away at a low point in its journey. There's a .gif of this one linked below.

Cons:
- Defensive posture is hit or miss. Sometimes it's absolutely fine, other times he tends to rest his weight further back on his heels which is the kind of thing that a skilled ball handler can really dig into at the point of attack. Doesn't get him in a ton of trouble tonight but it's something to be aware of, particularly at the next level with more powerful ball handlers.
- I noted this in his Maui game as well, but another slow start in this game. Seems to have more impact as the game goes on and he starts figuring stuff out. I don't know if that's a case of slow processing, or just not wanting to be a selfish player, or cautious in-game scouting, but would be nice to see him just blow up to start a game off.

Gif of Antman getting that block

Monster on-ball block by Anthony Edwards to preserve the tie pic.twitter.com/3GcEi3oSXA

— Max Carlin (@maxacarlin) December 21, 2019

Some Tyrese Maxey scouting from his last game v UTAH. It is being commentated on by the legend Bill Walton.

Before reading any of this, I just want to note that the way Maxey is being used at Kentucky is awful and I hate it. There's no reason he should be playing off-guard to Hagans, it makes no sense and doesn't fit either his skillset or the relative skill levels of the two players. Maxey should be the lead ball handler and full time PG and that's just how it is. But anyway, here's the scouting.

Pros:
- So much hustle. Constantly on the balls and toes of his feet, moving to fill passing lanes and keeping his eye on the activity. There's a super early play here, 19:20 left on the first half clock, where he steals the rebound off a guy who clearly has 6+ inches of height on him just by charging in.
- At 19:00 left on the clock they run a fastbreak play where Maxey catches the ball mid-stride, takes two steps, and layups it up with a soft touch through contact before landing with solid mechanics. Super impressive finish which is great to see from someone who has had a few rougher shooting games lately. He's so fast and so smooth that the defense doesn't really respond to him in any pro-active manner before he's already hitting them.
- Another reason that I'm fairly sure his shooting will translate to the NBA level: Maxey has a really nice, smooth FT stroke. He's shooting 89% from the line this year, and it's all in one motion with zero hitching or awkwardness. Feels like every one of them is destined to drop.
- Boxes out consistently. There's a limit to how effective a PG can be when boxing out much larger guys, but Maxey is determined to find that limit. He's not as stout as someone like Marcus Smart so it doesn't really work for him quite as well as it does for them, but any resistance here is good resistance.
- Super quick release on his jumper. Again, kind of strange how his %age is lower than expected at this early point in the season, but with his FT touch and such a smooth, quick, confident release (combined with HS history of good shooting) you do expect that to turn around.
- Ridiculous agility, on both ends of the court. Super smooth movement, and has such lower body strength and pop that things just happen and it almost seems like he teleported.
- Such a good defensive prospect. He's not always perfect, but the evidence of the potential is unquestionable. Great defensive posture, almost always with his hands to his sides and his weight on the balls of his feet. Navigates screens well, has great lateral smoothness and confidence. Quick hands, but doesn't foul. Has some grit in him, willing to take bumps to maintain position and will always contest. His size might limit him somewhat, but frankly I think he's big enough that it isn't a major concern and he looks to have a +ve wingspan. Good frame as well, for adding a little muscle. Such quick feet, so much hip mobility. He's going to be a real pest.
- Has a floater for the in-between game. Catches the ball at about 6:40 in the first half just inside the 3pt line, starts to drive, gets cut off and without an obvious outlet for a teammate he can throw up that smooth floater that just drops in without even touching the rim. That's a great touch finish that bodes well for his range-shooting long term.


Cons:
- Despite my love of his form and his FT success, it does have to be noted that Maxey has struggled from 3 so far this year. I feel like part of that is the role he's been put in, and that he isn't really being given a chance to establish his rhythm, but it's still reality: his 3PT% isn't very impressive and that remains true in this game. They're just not dropping into the net.
- Doesn't have an incredibly dynamic handle. Again, part of that might just be his off-ball role not allowing him to show it off as much as he could, but it's still a skill he's yet to really show any pop with, which you generally want from a lead ball handler at the NBA level.
- Competent passer but doesn't seem to have next-level vision in the way that a few other guys in this class (Mannion, Ball) do have.

A few clips to look at

Tyrese Maxey's shooting %s are disappointing, but still love his mix of strength-touch-body control. Shot 7-9 inside the arc last night vs. Utah. Good enough shotmaker to think more consistently will come. pic.twitter.com/cSqlnnddH3

— Jonathan Wasserman (@NBADraftWass) December 19, 2019

Tyrese Maxey is playing VS Louisville right now and he's having a real 3pt night.

His shot is so good, so smooth, so even, so aesthetic, and he shot solidly in high school and pre-NCAA play, so this overall poor 3pt shooting this season has been a real unpleasant thing to see (his FT% is about 89%, so still wonderful there).

Tonight he's hit 4 of 5, including on off-the-dribble shots and catch and shoot attempts. So good to see him hitting some of these shots that I know he's capable of. Hopefully the positive regression begins here.

I am a huge Maxey fan. I see his ceiling as CJ but with some dog on defense.

He won't be a bust. He's not Monk....he cares to much

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I am a huge Maxey fan. I see his ceiling as CJ but with some dog on defense.

He won't be a bust. He's not Monk....he cares to much

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Completely agree. He's a little shorter than you would probably like, but he has the intensity on D to make up for it. We all know that being a smart and dedicated defender can more than make up for a small height deficiency: CP3 has proven that for long enough.

I'm confident that his shot will come around as well. His FT% is incredible and he keeps showing signs of high level touch. I don't think he plays that much like CJ, but if you just meant a CJ calibre player than yeah, I agree.

Deni Avdija. A 19 year old point forward who is favorably compared to Doncic.

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Originally Posted by As I See It

Deni Avdija. A 19 year old point forward who is favorably compared to Doncic.

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I like Avdija. Don't love him, but I like him. Depends on who's left on the board and where we end up picking but I wouldn't be mad if we picked him around 10-13.

Reminder that the last time Isaac Okoro lost an official basketball game, it was February of 2018.

He is 44-0 since then.

Just dropping in some clips of my guys

Made a quick video of Isaac Okoro's defense vs Lipscomb. As he has shown all year, he is a very high level defender both on and off ball:

- strength in post w/great center of gravity
- recovery speed
- rotations off ball
- quick feet / hands in isolation pic.twitter.com/GEJTxv9qXV

— Spencer (@SKPearlman) December 31, 2019

Nico Mannion with constant motion to create space and then knocks down the pull-up 3. This dude is so good. pic.twitter.com/hvG9e1PUas

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) December 31, 2019

Every time I watch Nico Mannion, most of my thoughts revolve around "this guy is so damn good." pic.twitter.com/27zFZ5xYFW

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) December 31, 2019

Nico Mannion quick crossover and display of touch pic.twitter.com/tqLw3IcQE7

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) December 31, 2019

Understandably, Okoro has antigravity defensively. No reason to ever go near this man pic.twitter.com/VAvnDHHaPV

— Max Carlin (@maxacarlin) December 31, 2019

Isaac Okoro passing vs. NC State offers a window into his upside due to advanced reads, execution, and rapid improvement. The first 3 clips are relevant for how he passed, live dribble off-hand and on the move. The next an impressive weakside read, then a combination of it all pic.twitter.com/l705FUWN9q

— Max Carlin (@maxacarlin) December 31, 2019

This is by no means smooth, but the handle improvement to be stringing together a cross and spin like this from Okoro is a big deal viewed in the context of what he looked like just last season https://t.co/XEdZcVHWHp pic.twitter.com/PhIO3uWPj9

— Max Carlin (@maxacarlin) December 31, 2019

Isaac Okoro PnR, live dribble feed to the cutter. Exceptional wing passer pic.twitter.com/m53rMr5QyW

— Max Carlin (@maxacarlin) January 4, 2020

Okoro's improvement as a ball handler and passer has been pretty substantial so far this year. Loving to see how rapidly he's fixing up some of the patches in his game.

I keep trying to put together some kind of rough Big Board, but it's super difficult this year. The draft is so flat between spots 12-25 or so, that any order I put guys in there is largely randomised.

I know that I have these guys in my top 10:

Anthony Edwards
Onyeka Okongwu
Isaac Okoro
Nico Mannion
Killian Hayes
Tyrese Maxey
Cole Anthony

That's not in any particular order, there. Then there are a bunch of guys who I definitely think are NBA players but who I have no idea how to sort over each other

The Pelicans shouldn't draft for need. They have good prospects at multiple positions without a clear area devoid of prospects or long-term players.. With that said, to be successful in end-of-game scenarios, they need a high level player in pick-and-roll situations. Internal growth is possihble to establish to get one or more of those guys. There are a lot of guards in this draft. Anthony Edwards is categorically different than the guys we already have (though no sure thing). I don't see is being in that range without lottery luck. The other guys?
Hayes could be interestinng. I haven't seen any full games. Highlights remind me of a more athletic and physically strong, less skilled version of NAW. Flashy passer out of P&R. Not a great sure if he has some of the ancillary stuff I like from NAW (nose for the ball, steals, rebounds). I like NAW so I like him too.
Mannion will pay in the NBA for many years. I don't see him as a lead guard. This is probably fine where we'll be picking.
I don't like Cole Anthony. While I would love a pull-up shooter with the athletic gifts to be a lead guard, the track record for high draft picks who are statistical disasters is not good (has anyone who played as bad as him ever been good?)
I don't see Lamelo as a good fit with our two best players. I do not see a massive difference between him and Mannion, except Mannion is a very good shooter and Lamelo is taller with a better handle and a goddawful shot selection. The brother issue would also be awkward.


The Pelicans also need a 3/4 who can credibly defend big forwards. Could Okoro be that? He looks more like a 2-3.

This draft is certainly not worth tanking for. Reminds me of 2013. Difference makers may be out there, but it might be hard to identify them.

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Originally Posted by Biasvasospasm

The Pelicans also need a 3/4 who can credibly defend big forwards. Could Okoro be that? He looks more like a 2-3.

This draft is certainly not worth tanking for. Reminds me of 2013. Difference makers may be out there, but it might be hard to identify them.

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Okoro can defend 1-4, of that I am absolutely confident. Dude's strong as hell and his frame is good, with plenty of length. Honestly, I feel like Okoro might be the best option for us. We don't desperately need high level scorers (although of course, more scorers are never a bad thing) with Ingram and Zion both being 20ppg+ type guys, especially not with Jrue still around who can chip in 18ppg+ on any given night. What we're missing is someone who can be a versatile, switchable, low-usage guy with legitimate upside and preferably some secondary playmaking ability. Okoro has that.

I agree about the draft though. This draft is extremely mediocre. There's nobody in this draft who would have beaten out Zion or Morant for 1&2 last year, or even really challenged for it. There will be guys who really exceed expectations, there always are (and I feel like Okoro might be one of them :hihi: ).

For me, I feel like the strength of this draft is just its depth. There are tons of guys who will be reasonably good roleplayers in this draft. In a way, that's fine; the league has to restock on those guys from time to time anyway. But it does mean that it's a very low value year for high picks.

He has to shoot the 3 at an average rate to avoid being a more athletic Kenrich Williams and being completely ignored offensively (a more athletic Kenrich would still have value).

The other thing is that, due to changes in the rookie scale, the very top picks will be less valuable. The first few picks will be like MLE contracts, or higher. Are you confident that for picks 2-6 that you're going to want to pay those guy 8-12 million in years 3 and 4?

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Originally Posted by Biasvasospasm

This draft is certainly not worth tanking for. Reminds me of 2013. Difference makers may be out there, but it might be hard to identify them.

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This is why at the season’s beginning I was all about trying to build a winning culture now and push for the playoffs. We definitely shouldn’t throw our farm away to make a silly deal (ala Asik), but we need to try and fill a couple of gaps in the squad to make a push for the second half of the year. We have an abundance of guards that can be moved to acquire a wing/combo and we can probably still find a decent role player later in this draft (especially if we only land the 8th seed because we will be as high as 15th in the draft). 15-17th ain’t a bad spot to pick at all. Especially in this draft with few standout targets. Playoffs over tanking.

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Originally Posted by Biasvasospasm

He has to shoot the 3 at an average rate to avoid being a more athletic Kenrich Williams and being completely ignored offensively (a more athletic Kenrich would still have value).

The other thing is that, due to changes in the rookie scale, the very top picks will be less valuable. The first few picks will be like MLE contracts, or higher. Are you confident that for picks 2-6 that you're going to want to pay those guy 8-12 million in years 3 and 4?

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Sure, but that's true for most of the people in this draft class: there aren't many top tier prospects who have been good 3pt shooters this year at college. The best value from 3 comes from guys who project more as roleplayers, like Isaiah Joe, than the top guys. Of course, there are top guys who have shot badly but seem like they will be better shooters, like Tyrese Maxey, so I'm not saying you couldn't pick a better shooter than Okoro with something like the 8th or 10th pick. You very probably can. I'm just saying that any candidate in this draft has but flaws.

That said, you're right: a more athletic Kenrich would still have value, and I'd also argue that Okoro has other benefits over Kenrich as well. He's developed a better handle and better passing/playmaking ability, and of course, he's 7 years younger than Kenrich so he has plenty of time to develop :hihi:

My answer to that final question is no, though. It's totally possible some of those guys play up to that value, sure, but there's no sure-fire things here. That's why I'm not too worried about tanking or anything: I personally feel like we'll end up missing out on the playoffs (could be wrong, ofc) but I'm not going to tell anyone not to bother because tanking holds little value. If there was a Zion in this draft, maybe I'd have a different view, but there isn't.

I will note: the 2021 draft is projected to be far, far better than this one, so if there's any chance whatsoever that anyone will accept a swap where we get their 2021 pick in exchange for our 2020 pick, we should do it.

Nobody will do that because there's not many people in this draft worth trading up for, and nobody will want to lose their 2021 pick because of guys like Cade, Mobley, Garuba, etc, but still it's worth asking.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Sure, but that's true for most of the people in this draft class: there aren't many top tier prospects who have been good 3pt shooters this year at college. The best value from 3 comes from guys who project more as roleplayers, like Isaiah Joe, than the top guys. Of course, there are top guys who have shot badly but seem like they will be better shooters, like Tyrese Maxey, so I'm not saying you couldn't pick a better shooter than Okoro with something like t
he 8th or 10th pick. You very probably can. I'm just saying that any candidate in this draft has but flaws.

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If I had to bet on someone who isn't shooting great right now being a really good shooter, I would bet on Nico Mannion. He has a versatile jumper which he gets off quickly, really good touch, and shoots well from the line. I think he ends up being a high 30s type of guy in the NBA on high volume and he has enough juice in terms of ballhandling and passing to leverage that into being able to threaten defenses. I don't think he's a star, but I'd be surprised if he isn't a 10 year NBA player.