Hornets picking 21st in draft

Since 1995 there have been 140 guys selected as pick #21 or later in the first round. Here are the names of the guys who became quality starters and/or true additions/difference makers to the team:

Tayshaun Prince
Nenad Krystic
John Salmons
Mo Pete
Deshawn Stevenson
Gerad Wallace
Tony Parker
Samuel Dalembert
Boris Diaw
Kendrick Perkins
Josh Howard
Delonte West
Kevin martin
Nate robinson
David Lee
Rajon Rondo
Aaron Brooks
Andrei Kirilinko
Al Harrington
Bobby Jackson
Derek Fisher
Michael Finley


22 out of 140- approximately 15 percent. Again if you do hit on these guys, they can be the piece that leads you to a tiltle (T. Parker, Fisher, Rondo) so I GET IT. Trust me I do and I want us to keep the pick and draft Thornton or Teague. All I want to acknowledge is that we are emotional about this team but there is a logical business side and if I was the boss and someone asked me to make a 3.4 million dollar investment that has hit 15 percent of the time since 1995, I might say no.

you keep throwing out the percentages about how unlikely it is that we'll hit on a guy at 21. the fact is if we trade the pick again, we'll have a ZERO percentage the past two years with the draft. picking no one doesn't even take a chance, doesn't even show that we want to win, but that the owner only cares about the bottom line and the coach and GM are so arrogant as to think what we have is good enough.

here's an analogy for you.....say you had a building for your business. it has had its days, but now it's looking kind of run down. you could spend money to strengthen the foundation, and really do some good renovations for the future that would really make you some money. or you could just pretty up the outside with a fresh coat of paint, because that'd save you money in the short term. what you're saying is that we should just throw a new coat of paint on and call it done instead of thinking of the future, and doing things the right way.

I'M NOT SAYING THAT! For the last time I am giving you a logical account of our owners possible perspective. I want us to keep the pick. And yes, most businessmen would throw on the fresh paint and take the short term guaranteed money. Business is not about Ethics or emotion to most people. It is about COLD HARD CASH. And most businessmen would throw on the paint, get guaranteed profits and if they are gonna risk money, they risk it in a business with a higher rate of success. That is why Trump bought real estate, not restaurants. Though real estate is bad now, it was and will be again a safer bet than restaurants who can yeild a higher profit margin when they hit big, but they also close within the first 3 years 90 percent of the time.

Please, please understand I want to keep the pick and agree it can make us a better team. I hate Devin, Ely, etc with a passion and when we sign guys like that to deals we could give rookies I HATE it. But I also understand business and if we ignore that side, we will continually be frustrated by this team that obviously cares a lot about the bottom line.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

Since 1995 there have been 140 guys selected as pick #21 or later in the first round. Here are the names of the guys who became quality starters and/or true additions/difference makers to the team:

Tayshaun Prince
Nenad Krystic
John Salmons
Mo Pete
Deshawn Stevenson
Gerad Wallace
Tony Parker
Samuel Dalembert
Boris Diaw
Kendrick Perkins
Josh Howard
Delonte West
Kevin martin
Nate robinson
David Lee
Rajon Rondo
Aaron Brooks
Andrei Kirilinko
Al Harrington
Bobby Jackson
Derek Fisher
Michael Finley


22 out of 140- approximately 15 percent. Again if you do hit on these guys, they can be the piece that leads you to a tiltle (T. Parker, Fisher, Rondo) so I GET IT. Trust me I do and I want us to keep the pick and draft Thornton or Teague. All I want to acknowledge is that we are emotional about this team but there is a logical business side and if I was the boss and someone asked me to make a 3.4 million dollar investment that has hit 15 percent of the time since 1995, I might say no.

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First of all, there are a lot more players than that picked at 21 or later who went on to be contributors. There have been all-stars taken in the 2nd round. The players who can contribute are there, our scouts just have to do their job and find them.

And I bet if we list the number of players taken at 21 or later who are better than the Devin Brown's and Melvin Ely's of the world, the list would grow as well.

If we follow this "business plan", then we won't get better and we won't get younger. By the time we are in a position to draft where the odds might be more in our favor (lottery), it will mean we have a bad team and a roster that's a mess. We will have to worry about attendance, keeping Chris Paul happy (big deal), and being in good enough shape to attract these free agents we keep going after instead of drafting. We wouldn't have saved much money by selling picks and would be facing big financial difficulties.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

I agree with all of you guys but again you are supposing that we are the 1 out of the 10 that hit on our draft pick in the 20's. Yes, Mario Chalmers would have been a little better than Devin this year (lets not go overboard on a guy with attitude, drug problems, and cant hit a jumper in the NBA) but would Giddens or Ibaka or greene, or DJ White or Koufus or Ryan Anderson- all other guys picked in the 20's? No, and we would still be on the hook for at least 2 more years, where Brown, Bowen, etc we can resign again for the minimum OR let go.

After pick 10, the odds are heavily stacked against you as far as getting a quality player which would be okay except for the fact that you HAVE to pay these guys for 3 years. In retrospect, wouldnt we sell Hilton or Simmons for $3 million plus not have their cap figure, as small as it is, on our books? And those were picks 12 and 15 in a BETTER draft.

Not saying that we should never get young guys, but if I have two choices:

#1 Draft a guy at 21

#2 Sell my first rounder and get back into the second round

I will choose #2 every time. Look at the second rounders from last year versus the late 1st rounders:

Late 1st (20 or later- since that is where we pick) : Top 5

C. Lee, D. Arthur, N. Batum, G. Hill, D. Greene

Early 2nd rounders: Top 5

M. Chalmers, L. Bhah a Moute, K. Weaver, D. Jordan, CDW

Other than C. Lee, is there a big difference? The true difference is in the contracts. Lets compare george Hill with Kyle Weaver, two solid backup PG's.

Late 1st round PG gets a 1st round guarantee for 3 years AND Hornets dont get $3 million.
Second round PG gets shorter, non guaranteed contract AND Hornets get $3 million.

Try to take fan passion out of the equation and think of it like a businessman. If I can produce two similar products and one saves you 5 million over three years (I will do the math if you want) which would you choose?

The odds of them developing a starter at 21 arent much better than developing one at 40, but the money difference is big. And even if they cant get back into the early second, selling the pick isnt a horrible move although it does nullify the opportunity to find a gem at a small price. There are pros and cons to each scenario, I am just advocating the Hornets brass line of thinking because you would swear that it is insane what they are doing, but it does make sense.

Personally I would love Teague or Thornton at 21, but I know getting them or not getting them will have nothing to do with winning a title. So again, just prepare for us selling the pick and try to see their point of view whether you agree or not because it is gonna be that way anyway.

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Is that you Bower? If so go f$%& yourself!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I see your point, but this team isn't going to get better by continuing to sell our draft picks. If this team continues to get worse I can promise you one thing. After CP's contract expires he won't resign, and then your arena will be less than half full. So either spend money now, or your arena will be empty.

So you think Cp3's contract hinges on whether we get a guy like Terrance Williams. See, I dont agree. I think if you were to ask Paul if he would rather have Pargo back or draft a rookie, he will choose Pargo. Its not that the Hornets wont spend money, they just choose to spend it with more proven commodities and take fewer low risk, low reward chances.

I mean they went out each of the last 3 offseasons and spent as much money as they could. It is only in hindsight that we realize Mo Pete, Posey, etc didnt get us the championship. But lets say we didnt make those signings and last year we drafted D. Arthur. We would be knocking them for not making free agent signings and being blindly naive to think we could get better by only adding a late first round pick. This team spends money, but they save it when it comes to the draft because history show a guy like Posy is 100 times more likely to put you over the top than the 28th pick in the draft.

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Originally Posted by Loco Hornet Fan

First of all, there are a lot more players than that picked at 21 or later who went on to be contributors. There have been all-stars taken in the 2nd round. The players who can contribute are there, our scouts just have to do their job and find them.

And I bet if we list the number of players taken at 21 or later who are better than the Devin Brown's and Melvin Ely's of the world, the list would grow as well.

If we follow this "business plan", then we won't get better and we won't get younger. By the time we are in a position to draft where the odds might be more in our favor (lottery), it will mean we have a bad team and a roster that's a mess. We will have to worry about attendance, keeping Chris Paul happy (big deal), and being in good enough shape to attract these free agents we keep going after instead of drafting. We wouldn't have saved much money by selling picks and would be facing big financial difficulties.

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Re read my post, it says 21 or later IN THE FIRST ROUND. Yes there have been All Stars taken in the second round, where the Hornets would love to get into because the contract is not guaranteed. The point is theoretically all of these team since 95 have faced the option of sell the pick or roll the dice and history shows that about 15 percent of the time you get a starter or fringe starter when you roll the dice. So as a business man you are paying 3.4 million overall to roll the dice versus signing a minimum guy. Again, I would be the type to roll the dice, but its not my money.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

So you think Cp3's contract hinges on whether we get a guy like Terrance Williams. See, I dont agree. I think if you were to ask Paul if he would rather have Pargo back or draft a rookie, he will choose Pargo. Its not that the Hornets wont spend money, they just choose to spend it with more proven commodities and take fewer low risk, low reward chances.

I mean they went out each of the last 3 offseasons and spent as much money as they could. It is only in hindsight that we realize Mo Pete, Posey, etc didnt get us the championship. But lets say we didnt make those signings and last year we drafted D. Arthur. We would be knocking them for not making free agent signings and being blindly naive to think we could get better by only adding a late first round pick. This team spends money, but they save it when it comes to the draft because history show a guy like Posy is 100 times more likely to put you over the top than the 28th pick in the draft.

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You are missing my point. This team needs to get younger and better in order to stay competitive because if we don't CP will not want to stay here. If you are a top 5 player in the league, why would you want to stay somewhere that won't put players around you that give you a chance to win a championship. There was a rumor out there that the Hornets offered max years/max money to Paul and he turned it down. Why would he do that? My guess would be that he wants to be able to choose where he wants to play if the Hornets continue to decline. So selling our first round draft picks in consecutive years isn't helping this team. Arthur could of spelled DWest a hell of a lot better than Posey so he could of helped. Chalmers was like 7th in steals so yes he would of helped. This year guys like Teague, Holliday, Mills, Mullens, etc would all help this team more than any 2nd round draft pick could. Now if the Hornets package Mo Pete with the 1st round pick and are able to get back in the second round and pick a guy like Thornton then of course you do this, but the only way I would be happy with that trade is if none of the above are available at the time of our pick. If they resign Pargo, IMO they still need to draft another combo gaurd. Pargo is turning 30 this year, so he plays the important minutes for the next couple of years and then Teague, Holliday or Mills steps in when he is done. Thats what I want to see. The only big man worth drafting at 21 IMO is Mullens but he won't be there

You're missing the point. Younger and better are mutually exclusive of each other. They are not one and the same. Yes, the team does need to get better, and maybe even younger, but you don't have to do that with draft picks. The draft, outside of the top 5, is often times more trouble than it's worth. Adding solid young players at reasonable rates provides a far better return on investment than dumping guaranteed money into a player that probably will not make it every year, and being stuck with them for at least three years. And, the Hornets didn't decline. They had major injuries in a year that other teams (like Denver, Houston, Los Angeles) got better. Paul signed a three year deal for flexibility, but will not leave that last year on the table because nobody can come close to paying him that. And in a sign in trade, we'd break the bank, something that I don't think will ever happen anyway but your fears and babble about who and what woulda/coulda/shoulda helped makes me address the point. First, Arthur wasn't expected to fall that far, and he did because teams did their medical due diligence. The book is still being written on that pick. And, we traded the pick a day before the draft started. Sounds kinda like the people who complain that we traded Kobe. Second, Chalmers helped on an 8 seeded team in the East. We already had a backup PG on the roster making $6M per year. Did we really need our third string PG on a guaranteed contract considering we could only shake James loose for a similar player? And what about the ten other guys who went in that range that did absolutely that we could have ended up selecting? Or the guys (not named Paul or West) who have done nothing, even the can't miss prospects like Wright. There are many ways to skin a cat. The draft has proven over time to be the least effective way.

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Originally Posted by Saints Fan in A

You're missing the point. Younger and better are mutually exclusive of each other. They are not one and the same. Yes, the team does need to get better, and maybe even younger, but you don't have to do that with draft picks. The draft, outside of the top 5, is often times more trouble than it's worth. Adding solid young players at reasonable rates provides a far better return on investment than dumping guaranteed money into a player that probably will not make it every year, and being stuck with them for at least three years. And, the Hornets didn't decline. They had major injuries in a year that other teams (like Denver, Houston, Los Angeles) got better. Paul signed a three year deal for flexibility, but will not leave that last year on the table because nobody can come close to paying him that. And in a sign in trade, we'd break the bank, something that I don't think will ever happen anyway but your fears and babble about who and what woulda/coulda/shoulda helped makes me address the point. First, Arthur wasn't expected to fall that far, and he did because teams did their medical due diligence. The book is still being written on that pick. And, we traded the pick a day before the draft started. Sounds kinda like the people who complain that we traded Kobe. Second, Chalmers helped on an 8 seeded team in the East. We already had a backup PG on the roster making $6M per year. Did we really need our third string PG on a guaranteed contract considering we could only shake James loose for a similar player? And what about the ten other guys who went in that range that did absolutely that we could have ended up selecting? Or the guys (not named Paul or West) who have done nothing, even the can't miss prospects like Wright. There are many ways to skin a cat. The draft has proven over time to be the least effective way.

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Ok so lets keep selling our pick and throwing 4 yr 25 million deals at guys like Posey since that helped us so much last year. If we would of resigned Pargo and kept Arthur we would of been alot better team. Yeah Yeah hindsight is 20/20 and all that bull****, but the direction this team is going in isn't the right one. I say we should resign Pargo, then draft the best combo guard available at 21. Offer Bass the MLE and pray that he accepts that and will come back home and play for Scott. Those three moves would be good for at least 5 wins which would put us back in the top 2-4 range in the West. Before you bash this post, why don't you post what you think we should do to get better??????????

Okay, I just want to say I never intend to "bash" any ideas. I just think everyone here is so willing to spend all this money that isnt their own or turn down 3 million dollars for a draft pick because they are not recieving the money themselves. All I have ever said is before you bash the management, step out of your skin and look at it from a PURELY business point of view.

What I or anyone else thinks we should do has nothing to do with that. The point is none of us influence what Bower is gonna do, but it is nonsensical to just come on here and bash because the only thing we get out of the team is joy when they win. Money plays no part in the way it does for the owner. It is easy to say, sign a draft pick, pay Pargo and sign Bass, which would put our payroll at 82 million plus another 27 million for luxury tax - total 109 million out of HIS pocket.

Personally, yeah I would love to sign Pargo, draft Hansbourough and make this trade and that trade, but I would also love it if Outback Steakhouse had a dollar menu and slashed all their prices because I am a fan of theirs as well, but I dont get mad at them for not doing it because it is bad business.

So understand that it is a business and pray that they take risks and make what history would show as bad business moves for OUR sake, but if they dont there is no reason to bash another person for not spending THEIR money.

Now that also gives you a right to spend YOUR money and if you wont go to a game because you dont get to see Terrance Williams riding the bench, then that is YOUR choice.

All I want is for this board to see the business side as much as the basketball side and then maybe we can all relax a little bit with the bitterness.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

Okay, I just want to say I never intend to "bash" any ideas. I just think everyone here is so willing to spend all this money that isnt their own or turn down 3 million dollars for a draft pick because they are not recieving the money themselves. All I have ever said is before you bash the management, step out of your skin and look at it from a PURELY business point of view.

What I or anyone else thinks we should do has nothing to do with that. The point is none of us influence what Bower is gonna do, but it is nonsensical to just come on here and bash because the only thing we get out of the team is joy when they win. Money plays no part in the way it does for the owner. It is easy to say, sign a draft pick, pay Pargo and sign Bass, which would put our payroll at 82 million plus another 27 million for luxury tax - total 109 million out of HIS pocket.

Personally, yeah I would love to sign Pargo, draft Hansbourough and make this trade and that trade, but I would also love it if Outback Steakhouse had a dollar menu and slashed all their prices because I am a fan of theirs as well, but I dont get mad at them for not doing it because it is bad business.

So understand that it is a business and pray that they take risks and make what history would show as bad business moves for OUR sake, but if they dont there is no reason to bash another person for not spending THEIR money.

Now that also gives you a right to spend YOUR money and if you wont go to a game because you dont get to see Terrance Williams riding the bench, then that is YOUR choice.

All I want is for this board to see the business side as much as the basketball side and then maybe we can all relax a little bit with the bitterness.

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The "bash" quote wasn't toward u, it was towards Saints fan in A. I agree with what you are saying. If you were around during the trade deadline I was making this exact same argument about the Tyson Chandler deal. I was saying that the value of both Wilcox and Smith was greater than a 75% Tyson. Then with both of their contracts coming off the books, it would of put us under the luxury tax and it would of gave us first shot at resigning them. I understand that Mr. Shinn has to run a business and it has to turn a profit, but what I am trying to say is that you have to spend money to make money. If Shinn continues to make Bower trade the draft pick it is gonna make the casual fan think that they don't care. Plus rookies are cheap and you have to have cheap contracts to balance out the big contracts we have so in the long run it will give us more flexibility than signing Posey and Pete to 4 yr deals for more than 20 mill. If they don't work out, then you cut ties with them after 2 years and move on. You aren't stuck in for another 2 years and at least 15 million more. The contracts of both Peja and Tyson are killing us right now and unless we can move them we are gonna have to spend money (even if it means going over the luxury tax) in order to get better. So if we take a shot (which is what you claim we are doing at 21) and draft someone like Mills or Teague and we get to keep him for around 3 or 4 years for around 1.5-1.8 million per it is alot cheaper than signing an aging veteran. Which in the long run will save us money.

Plus if this team doesn't find a way to stay competitive, because we definitely weren't competitive towards the end of the year, the Arena will begin to look emptier and emptier. Trust me I have followed NO sports my whole life and if they aren't winning no one goes to the games.

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Originally Posted by Saints Fan in A

There are many ways to skin a cat. The draft has proven over time to be the least effective way.

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Tell that to San Antonio, Los Angeles, Orlando, Utah, etc. Teams like the '08 Celtics are the exception, not the rule.


I could see defending trading the pick last year, you know when we were considered contenders, but now it's ridiculous. If we traded Paul tommorow some of you would respond by saying, ''Good, we needed more height at PG.'' I mean sheesh, there is no reason to defend EVERY move this team makes.

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Originally Posted by Saints Fan in A

You're missing the point. Younger and better are mutually exclusive of each other. They are not one and the same. Yes, the team does need to get better, and maybe even younger, but you don't have to do that with draft picks. The draft, outside of the top 5, is often times more trouble than it's worth. Adding solid young players at reasonable rates provides a far better return on investment than dumping guaranteed money into a player that probably will not make it every year, and being stuck with them for at least three years. And, the Hornets didn't decline. They had major injuries in a year that other teams (like Denver, Houston, Los Angeles) got better. Paul signed a three year deal for flexibility, but will not leave that last year on the table because nobody can come close to paying him that. And in a sign in trade, we'd break the bank, something that I don't think will ever happen anyway but your fears and babble about who and what woulda/coulda/shoulda helped makes me address the point. First, Arthur wasn't expected to fall that far, and he did because teams did their medical due diligence. The book is still being written on that pick. And, we traded the pick a day before the draft started. Sounds kinda like the people who complain that we traded Kobe. Second, Chalmers helped on an 8 seeded team in the East. We already had a backup PG on the roster making $6M per year. Did we really need our third string PG on a guaranteed contract considering we could only shake James loose for a similar player? And what about the ten other guys who went in that range that did absolutely that we could have ended up selecting? Or the guys (not named Paul or West) who have done nothing, even the can't miss prospects like Wright. There are many ways to skin a cat. The draft has proven over time to be the least effective way.

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I am not sure who is missing the point. A team cannot consistently avoid the draft. It makes no sense to consistently sell of a pick for $$$ (which does nothing to improve the play on the court) and invest guaranteed money into aging veterans. There is ALWAYS a spot on a team for an inexpensive young developmental player. Selling it one year may be explainable. Doing it in consecutive years, or often, is not IMO.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

The calculations are exact actually. The difference between the league minimum and the 21st pick is 200,000- doubled because of the luxury tax- 400,000. Plus the Hornets will sell their pick for 3 million = 3.4 million.

All I am saying is please think of this as you going up to your boss who runs the company. You tell him you can use medium end corn flakes in your cereal instead of low end. He says to you, "Well what is the cost difference for us, and what do we expect to yield in profit?"

You say, it will be an extra 3.4 million and we will most definately not make that back this year and according to past studies there is a very high liklihood the medium end corn flakes never yield better than the low end corn flakes but there is a 10-15 percent chance that they do.

What would he say in all liklihood? Or use any other business if you cant think about corn flakes cereal. Yes we can make minor points like Thornton or Darrell Arthur or whomever COULD be a difference on this team even though history shows a pick in the twenties is likely to be a role player at best. The fact is, if this were any other business you would see the logic but since this is sports and we all get invested emotionally, we want our team to take the chances and foolishly assume we will be the 1 out of 8 who hit on our pick in the 20's.

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Believe me, I know how to run a company and there is much more to a decision than a one time money grab. There needs to be a long term plan to develop a successful product. Continually shirking that responsibility for a money grab (while signing league minimum bums to sit at the end of the bench with no potential for future development) is not the way to do that IMO.

But what if (and in all probability this is what will happen) instead of signing Devin Brown, you draft Kirk Haston or Cortney Alexander? Then you are out 3.4 million AND none of the problems you are stating are fixed. Why do you continously ignore that as a possible outcome when history shows it is the PROBABLE outcome?

Yes, ideally we would love to stockpile new, young cheap talent, but you guys are acting like that is the probable outcome if we keep the pick. That is the HOPEFUL outcome but as seen with Haston and Wright and Simmons and Armstrong etc. the more likely outcome is that the front office declines 3 million, gives a guaranteed contract to a guy and he turns out to be nothing.

So please we all agree with the argument that in an ideal world we would draft Tony Parker or Michael Finley this year, but your entire argument hinges on that being likely when it is in fact the opposite.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

But what if (and in all probability this is what will happen) instead of signing Devin Brown, you draft Kirk Haston or Cortney Alexander? Then you are out 3.4 million AND none of the problems you are stating are fixed. Why do you continously ignore that as a possible outcome when history shows it is the PROBABLE outcome?

Yes, ideally we would love to stockpile new, young cheap talent, but you guys are acting like that is the probable outcome if we keep the pick. That is the HOPEFUL outcome but as seen with Haston and Wright and Simmons and Armstrong etc. the more likely outcome is that the front office declines 3 million, gives a guaranteed contract to a guy and he turns out to be nothing.

So please we all agree with the argument that in an ideal world we would draft Tony Parker or Michael Finley this year, but your entire argument hinges on that being likely when it is in fact the opposite.

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You ignore the fact that $3 million in cash (if you can get that much) is not necessarily going to improve the product on the court either. By your arguement, no team should ever draft after the top 8-10 players because there are more missed than hits. The same could be said in the NFL with late round selections, but there is always the Tom Brady or Marques Colston example. Are they the norm, no, but should a team at least attempt to build youth and depth? I think so. Your example about Courtney Alexander has some relevance. We traded for him because we did not think there would be talent available at our slot. Management was rumored to like Rush (who did not pan out to be a star) and Silas was in love with Prince (who really panned out). Ironically, we could have done better by taking the chance on Prince rather than the proven Alexander. All sides are a crap shoot.

And what have we seen in the NFL? Teams dying to get out of the top 10 and very few if any teams willing to get in there.

I agree all sides are a crapshoot but the difference on this side of the crapshot in managements eyes (not mine) is an extra 3 million. If they were given truth serum and forced to answer our questions honestly, they would acknowledge that this is all it is about. Obviously they wouldnt just not select anyone and lose the pick for nothing, the 3 million is the deciding factor.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

So you think Cp3's contract hinges on whether we get a guy like Terrance Williams. See, I dont agree. I think if you were to ask Paul if he would rather have Pargo back or draft a rookie, he will choose Pargo. Its not that the Hornets wont spend money, they just choose to spend it with more proven commodities and take fewer low risk, low reward chances.

I mean they went out each of the last 3 offseasons and spent as much money as they could. It is only in hindsight that we realize Mo Pete, Posey, etc didnt get us the championship. But lets say we didnt make those signings and last year we drafted D. Arthur. We would be knocking them for not making free agent signings and being blindly naive to think we could get better by only adding a late first round pick. This team spends money, but they save it when it comes to the draft because history show a guy like Posy is 100 times more likely to put you over the top than the 28th pick in the draft.

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Huh, a team can only sustain competiveness by doing both. So signing Pargo AND drafting a guy like Williams would both be neccessary to keep a team competitive. And by the way, Mo Pete sucked majorly when we signed him

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Originally Posted by fullcourtpress

Huh, a team can only sustain competiveness by doing both. So signing Pargo AND drafting a guy like Williams would both be neccessary to keep a team competitive. And by the way, Mo Pete sucked majorly when we signed him

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Again that is a great attitude to have when you are spending someone else's money but with our cap situation it is more likely Pargo OR Williams.

And yes Mo Pete was not great but was he better than C. Simmons? How bout Kirk Haston? How bout Armstrong? How bout Wright? All guys picked HIGHER than 21. But I forgot, Terrance Williams is a guarantee, much more so than Mo Pete or Posey was when we signed them.

I love all thes arguments about how we should have drafted rookies instead of signing vets like Mo Pete and Posey as if Arthur or Chalmers would have put us over the top. We would have drafted those guys, done nothing in FA and then everyone would be whinning about how we dont spend money on proven vets and all we add are average 9th or 10th men like Arthur and expect to make ourselves champs.

You guys cant have it every way, especially with someone else's money.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

And what have we seen in the NFL? Teams dying to get out of the top 10 and very few if any teams willing to get in there.

I agree all sides are a crapshoot but the difference on this side of the crapshot in managements eyes (not mine) is an extra 3 million. If they were given truth serum and forced to answer our questions honestly, they would acknowledge that this is all it is about. Obviously they wouldnt just not select anyone and lose the pick for nothing, the 3 million is the deciding factor.

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Teams in the NFL want to get out of the top 10 because the ridiculous amount of money owed to those picks vs. the later picks which may be just as good. The NFL draft sort of has ''parity'' throughout the 1st round.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

You guys cant have it every way, especially with someone else's money.

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You get so defensive about it, is it your money? (George? :hihi: )

In reality, the NBA really should look at this rule. They should not allow the selling of draft picks (as it favors the teams with the big $$$ and leads to lopsided trades). They should just leave it as a draft and not a rummage sale.

I was thinking Shinn had sent a PR rep. here for a second.

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Originally Posted by NIH

Teams in the NFL want to get out of the top 10 because the ridiculous amount of money owed to those picks vs. the later picks which may be just as good. The NFL draft sort of has ''parity'' throughout the 1st round.

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All the same, if a team wants a player bad enough, they can and will move up to get him. Kinda like the Jets and Mark Sanchez. Or the Saints and...Ricky... :idoh:

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Originally Posted by HORNETSFAN

You get so defensive about it, is it your money? (George? :hihi: )

In reality, the NBA really should look at this rule. They should not allow the selling of draft picks (as it favors the teams with the big $$$ and leads to lopsided trades). They should just leave it as a draft and not a rummage sale.

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Look I agree with you and I hate the big markets in baseball and think a team like KC or Pittsburgh will never have a shot at winning a title.

My point is you cant complain about the rules of a game, you have to play the game with the rules you are dealt. And if my boss says the rules are we have to make money, I sell a pick in the 20's for 3 million almost every time because it is more likely than not that pick never nets me 3 million on its own.

If the rules are simply to build the best team and we had Paul Allen like cash, yeah sure roll the dice twenty times, buy draft picks, etc. But those are not the rules THIS team is playing with.

And I know here comes the argument "Better players equal more wins equal more money" but as revolutionist already showed you in his data, the differnce in wins between the 21st pick and an average player is negligible. Of course you guys will assume we will be drafting Michael Finley, when it is more likely we will be drafting Kirk Haston.

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Originally Posted by NIH

I was thinking Shinn had sent a PR rep. here for a second.

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I just think it is a little unfair how you guys present your arguments on the board. Essentially without saying it, you are saying that you are smarter than Bower because you would do x, Y, and Z. But in reality if you were in his position, you wouldnt have all those as an option. It is easy to say you would pay Pargo, draft rookies, develop them, sign Bass, etc. But he doesn not have those resources all available to him so he is playing by REAL rules and you guys are trying to make yourselves look better by playing the same game but with your own MADE UP rules where money doesnt really apply.

Also you guys have the benefit of hindsight in your made up version of the game, where he does not. I just think it is SO EASY to bash and NIH, I have never seen a positive post from you so I dont even know why you like this team, but try playing the same game, with the same rules as these guys and make money and build a champion and somehow manage to never have your players get hurt. We act like Bower did a horrible job this past year, but before injuries struck, I thought we were 50/50 to get to the Finals, with only the Lakers standing in our way. Now if we had Arthur instead of Posey (who shut down the King in our opening home win and could have slowed Kobe more than anyone else on our team), we would have had no chance.

I know another negative post not truly responding to any of my valid points is coming back but maybe in your own free time think about this and realize we dont have it so bad after all- we could be Bucks or Clippers or Bobcats fans with NO hope whatsoever.

The Hornets didn't draft C. Alexander. They traded their first round pick to the Wizards for him. Someone on the radio, WWL, said this last night on my drive back home. I guess this was you.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

But what if (and in all probability this is what will happen) instead of signing Devin Brown, you draft Kirk Haston or Cortney Alexander? Then you are out 3.4 million AND none of the problems you are stating are fixed. Why do you continously ignore that as a possible outcome when history shows it is the PROBABLE outcome?

Yes, ideally we would love to stockpile new, young cheap talent, but you guys are acting like that is the probable outcome if we keep the pick. That is the HOPEFUL outcome but as seen with Haston and Wright and Simmons and Armstrong etc. the more likely outcome is that the front office declines 3 million, gives a guaranteed contract to a guy and he turns out to be nothing.

So please we all agree with the argument that in an ideal world we would draft Tony Parker or Michael Finley this year, but your entire argument hinges on that being likely when it is in fact the opposite.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

I just think it is a little unfair how you guys present your arguments on the board. Essentially without saying it, you are saying that you are smarter than Bower because you would do x, Y, and Z. But in reality if you were in his position, you wouldnt have all those as an option. It is easy to say you would pay Pargo, draft rookies, develop them, sign Bass, etc. But he doesn not have those resources all available to him so he is playing by REAL rules and you guys are trying to make yourselves look better by playing the same game but with your own MADE UP rules where money doesnt really apply.

Also you guys have the benefit of hindsight in your made up version of the game, where he does not. I just think it is SO EASY to bash and NIH, I have never seen a positive post from you so I dont even know why you like this team, but try playing the same game, with the same rules as these guys and make money and build a champion and somehow manage to never have your players get hurt. We act like Bower did a horrible job this past year, but before injuries struck, I thought we were 50/50 to get to the Finals, with only the Lakers standing in our way. Now if we had Arthur instead of Posey (who shut down the King in our opening home win and could have slowed Kobe more than anyone else on our team), we would have had no chance.

I know another negative post not truly responding to any of my valid points is coming back but maybe in your own free time think about this and realize we dont have it so bad after all- we could be Bucks or Clippers or Bobcats fans with NO hope whatsoever.

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You also need to remember that all of this on the board is simply opinions and none of us can represent the team. So, you actually could be presenting an opinion others do not agree with, yet you act as if others are completely wrong for thinking that way. Of the things you mention above, if he wanted to, Bower certainly could have kept Bass and Pargo within the rules. Those are not guys that break the bank. As far as Posey, who knows? With the money saved by not signing him, who knows who we could have picked up and whether he (or them) would have made a more significant impact.

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Originally Posted by killah

The Hornets didn't draft C. Alexander. They traded their first round pick to the Wizards for him. Someone on the radio, WWL, said this last night on my drive back home. I guess this was you.

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I used Alexander in this post as evidence of a guy picked after 15 that became nothing- didnt matter who picked him. My main point is everyone thinks we will draft a future quality piece at 21 when history shows we are more likly gonna draft a nobody.

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Originally Posted by HORNETSFAN

You also need to remember that all of this on the board is simply opinions and none of us can represent the team. So, you actually could be presenting an opinion others do not agree with, yet you act as if others are completely wrong for thinking that way. Of the things you mention above, if he wanted to, Bower certainly could have kept Bass and Pargo within the rules. Those are not guys that break the bank. As far as Posey, who knows? With the money saved by not signing him, who knows who we could have picked up and whether he (or them) would have made a more significant impact.

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Opinions are fine, my problem is when others try to make themselves look smarter by playing a different game than those they are saying are doing their job poorly. It is easy to come on here and say Bower is crap and I would sign Pargo, draft the next stud and sign Bass this offseason and we will be right back in contention. Meeanwhile in REAL life, he is dealing with not just making the team the best it can be but make money too.

So I just think that as a responsible fan and knowledgable person, it makes no sense to shout out what you think we should do with your own fantasy rules as the basis. Understand we dont have Cuban or Allen as an owner and then you can spout out your plans within the real rules Bower is actually playing with. Nobody on this board will ever be right or wrong- I just see nothing productive in giving theories of what you would do if we had Steinbrenner's pocketbook when we dont.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

I used Alexander in this post as evidence of a guy picked after 15 that became nothing- didnt matter who picked him. My main point is everyone thinks we will draft a future quality piece at 21 when history shows we are more likly gonna draft a nobody.

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actually, Courtney Alexander is an example of how trading the pick for a vet is not a good idea. for the record, the guy picked was Juan Dixon, who's at least been serviceable in the NBA. also, a couple of the guys picked after were Tayshaun Prince (#23) and John Salmons (#26).

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

Re read my post, it says 21 or later IN THE FIRST ROUND. Yes there have been All Stars taken in the second round, where the Hornets would love to get into because the contract is not guaranteed. The point is theoretically all of these team since 95 have faced the option of sell the pick or roll the dice and history shows that about 15 percent of the time you get a starter or fringe starter when you roll the dice. So as a business man you are paying 3.4 million overall to roll the dice versus signing a minimum guy. Again, I would be the type to roll the dice, but its not my money.

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I don't see how that makes sense though. Why are you limiting the sample size to only a few picks? Of course that is going to skew that stats and drive percentages down. It would be more accurate to include all players taken at 21 and later since all of those guys are going to be available to us anyway (if we keep the pick).

Doesn't make sense to only include 21-end of first round.

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Originally Posted by DiMaggio dunks

actually, Courtney Alexander is an example of how trading the pick for a vet is not a good idea. for the record, the guy picked was Juan Dixon, who's at least been serviceable in the NBA. also, a couple of the guys picked after were Tayshaun Prince (#23) and John Salmons (#26).

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I have already posted a complete list of every player drafted in the 20's who proved to be a quality player/starter so thank you. And nobody said anything about trading the pick for a vet. The simple essential question is a business one: Based on history, will a pick in the 20's yield a team more than the 3 million dollars you can sell it for.

Time and time again the evidence says no, but as I said I would be a gambler if it wasnt my money and keep bucking the odds until I hit on a Ginobli type. But since it is not my money, and none of ours for that matter, I do not blame management for making money.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

And what have we seen in the NFL? Teams dying to get out of the top 10 and very few if any teams willing to get in there.

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Well there is a HUGE difference there. Rookies in the NFL first round (especially the top 10) make mega-bucks, while the NBA rookie contracts are relatively cheap.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

Opinions are fine, my problem is when others try to make themselves look smarter by playing a different game than those they are saying are doing their job poorly. It is easy to come on here and say Bower is crap and I would sign Pargo, draft the next stud and sign Bass this offseason and we will be right back in contention. Meeanwhile in REAL life, he is dealing with not just making the team the best it can be but make money too.

So I just think that as a responsible fan and knowledgable person, it makes no sense to shout out what you think we should do with your own fantasy rules as the basis. Understand we dont have Cuban or Allen as an owner and then you can spout out your plans within the real rules Bower is actually playing with. Nobody on this board will ever be right or wrong- I just see nothing productive in giving theories of what you would do if we had Steinbrenner's pocketbook when we dont.

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Again, the condescending attitude that you convey will not get you far on the board. As stated, it would have been well within the rules for Bower to keep Pargo and Bass (and certainly would not have needed Steinbrenner's pocket books), but it was a team decision not to do so. So, there is nothing fantasy about it. It could be considered a "fantasy" by some to think that it is more important to argue that it is a great business move to simply grab $3 million for a draft pick while ignoring the future implications on the makeup of the team. But none of us know their long term plan, so it is all opinion. Stick to discussion instead of talking down to others. Again, none of our opinions are necessarily fact or any better than another posters.

I said people want to sign Pargo, Bass and a draft pick THIS YEAR- that is fantasy.

As for the other stuff- okay you are right everyone has a right to their own opinion so the guy who says we should trade Posey for LBJ should be given as much respect as the guy who understands what he is talking about.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

I said people want to sign Pargo, Bass and a draft pick THIS YEAR- that is fantasy.

As for the other stuff- okay you are right everyone has a right to their own opinion so the guy who says we should trade Posey for LBJ should be given as much respect as the guy who understands what he is talking about.

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I don't think that signing Pargo and Bass and a draft pick is a fantasy. We have the MLE to work with which is roughly 6 million (I think) plus the 3.2 million worth of expiring deals from Bowen, Ely, and Marks (whom I hope they resign also). So that gives us 9.2 to work with IF we don't cut any salary, IF Bower uses the MLE. So Pargo would take 2 mill a year, so that leaves 4 mill a year for Bass (hopefully he would take that to return home), then you have 3.2 to fill out the roster with a rookie and FAs. Is this really that far fetched? IMO no.

Yes I know, we are over the cap and every dollar spend is really two, but Bower has to do something or the arena will start to empty out. Trust me I have followed New Orleans sports alot longer than you have, and if the teams aren't winning the stadium/arena is usually empty.

And we have the Bi-annual which is a little over 2mil I think

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Originally Posted by nolagoblue

I don't think that signing Pargo and Bass and a draft pick is a fantasy. We have the MLE to work with which is roughly 6 million (I think) plus the 3.2 million worth of expiring deals from Bowen, Ely, and Marks (whom I hope they resign also). So that gives us 9.2 to work with IF we don't cut any salary, IF Bower uses the MLE. So Pargo would take 2 mill a year, so that leaves 4 mill a year for Bass (hopefully he would take that to return home), then you have 3.2 to fill out the roster with a rookie and FAs. Is this really that far fetched? IMO no.

Yes I know, we are over the cap and every dollar spend is really two, but Bower has to do something or the arena will start to empty out. Trust me I have followed New Orleans sports alot longer than you have, and if the teams aren't winning the stadium/arena is usually empty.

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I love your attitude and wish you were right, but yes this is REALLY far fetched. First of all your math is off. The expiring minimum deals do not help us at all since we are over the cap. Basically we would have to sign Pargo and Bass for the total of the MLE which is very doubtful. But lets live in a dream world and say Pargo takes 2 million and Bass takes 4 plus we draft a rookie- that is 7.1 million of added salary on top of the 77.6 we are already committed to putting us at 84.7 million. If that is our payroll this year, I will sprout wings and fly to New Orleans and hug Shinn and Bower. The same team that tried to give away Tyson to avoid the luxury tax is gonna go 12-15 million over it and pay a total of 98-100 million dollars in payroll and luxury tax penalties this year?

Again, I want every player just like you guys do but if we arent real we will just be frustrated at the end of the day.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

As for the other stuff- okay you are right everyone has a right to their own opinion so the guy who says we should trade Posey for LBJ should be given as much respect as the guy who understands what he is talking about.

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Another off topic slanted comment. :rolleyes: That is not the type of poster you are continually slamming, but those who understand what they are talking about (but just do not agree with your opinion). You have good, well thought out points, just keep it at that without offending others' well thought out opinions.

I agree, you do have well thought opinions and I think if you look at my posts you will not find me slamming people. You will just see that I am about cold hard logic (philosophy phd student- sorry i hope it wont be held against me). Meanwhile people ignore obvious deductive arguments and throw up fantasy or pure emotional statements. I have no problem if people disagree, just make your point logically within the world we live in.

My point with the whole Posey for LBJ scenario, was that obviously you think this is an absurd argument right? Why? Because it could only happen in a world outside of this one because in this world that would NEVER happen. Same with this argument. My point has never been that drafting well and spending money and not taking 3 million for our pick would hurt the team, but rather our options exist within a smaller bubble that most people on this forum ignore and then complain that we couldnt get LBJ for Posey in this scenario.

We must acknowledge that this is a business and the Hornets wont be adding another 7 million in payroll to the current team by using the full MLE and drafting a first round pick, therefore pushing their costs to 100 million this year. So dont post crazy scenarios and then get mad at the owners for not doing it because that would be the equivalent of getting mad we didnt trade Posey for LBJ.

some people confuse being a fan, with agreeing with management at all costs.
I understand what can and cant be done; look we have to over-pay for FA's; hence building through the draft would always be smarter in the long-run

here's a team WE drafted; instead of mo pete, peja, posey, and others; we could have just signed a center

CP3/Baron
JR Smith
Kobe Bryant
David West
FA

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Originally Posted by fullcourtpress

some people confuse being a fan, with agreeing with management at all costs.
I understand what can and cant be done; look we have to over-pay for FA's; hence building through the draft would always be smarter in the long-run

here's a team WE drafted; instead of mo pete, peja, posey, and others; we could have just signed a center

CP3/Baron
JR Smith
Kobe Bryant
David West
FA

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Dont really get the point of this but okay I'll play. If we draft Kobe we never get any of these other guys. If we keep Baron, we never draft CP3. I can go on and on. Again, hindsight is a great tool in an argument when you can use it and the guy you are critiquing (Bower/Shinn) cant. Fact is we have drafted better than most teams and IMO only really tailed off this year because of massive injuries, which we know in hindsight, but how could anyone except Miss Cleo really account for that.

I'm sure if Gasol had the injuries Chandler had this year, the Lakers GM would be a bad GM too. Personally, I think we were the second best team in the West this year if we are playing like on XBOX- with all the injuries turned off. But we will never know.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

We must acknowledge that this is a business and the Hornets wont be adding another 7 million in payroll to the current team by using the full MLE and drafting a first round pick, therefore pushing their costs to 100 million this year. So dont post crazy scenarios and then get mad at the owners for not doing it because that would be the equivalent of getting mad we didnt trade Posey for LBJ.

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I certainly agree that in our current situation, using the MLE would not be likely. However, I hope they have a plan in place to reduce salary. My hope is that they add youth to the bench via the draft.

Your hope as well as mine buddy. I want to get a rookie, shed some contracts and see if the rookie and Wright can play next year. I think the biggest thing for the future of this franchise on the court next year would be to develop Wright and the rookie so we can add pieces in the next year or two and have a great blend of experience and youth. But if I had to choose one or the other- knowing Scott wont play multiple youg guys- I would sell the pick and give Wright 20-25 minutes a game this year. Let him fail a bunch of times and work through it. I just think his game if it develops complements CP3's wonderfully.

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I just think it is SO EASY to bash and NIH, I have never seen a positive post from you so I dont even know why you like this team.

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You've been around for a month, I'm just not optimistic about the Hornets situation. There's nothing wrong with that. If you can't handle criticism of the team then you shouldn't be on a fan forum. It's that simple.

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

Your hope as well as mine buddy. I want to get a rookie, shed some contracts and see if the rookie and Wright can play next year. I think the biggest thing for the future of this franchise on the court next year would be to develop Wright and the rookie so we can add pieces in the next year or two and have a great blend of experience and youth. But if I had to choose one or the other- knowing Scott wont play multiple youg guys- I would sell the pick and give Wright 20-25 minutes a game this year. Let him fail a bunch of times and work through it. I just think his game if it develops complements CP3's wonderfully.

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You agreed that we need youth on the bench, yet you want to sell the pick?

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Originally Posted by CP3 & 11 others

I love your attitude and wish you were right, but yes this is REALLY far fetched. First of all your math is off. The expiring minimum deals do not help us at all since we are over the cap. Basically we would have to sign Pargo and Bass for the total of the MLE which is very doubtful. But lets live in a dream world and say Pargo takes 2 million and Bass takes 4 plus we draft a rookie- that is 7.1 million of added salary on top of the 77.6 we are already committed to putting us at 84.7 million. If that is our payroll this year, I will sprout wings and fly to New Orleans and hug Shinn and Bower. The same team that tried to give away Tyson to avoid the luxury tax is gonna go 12-15 million over it and pay a total of 98-100 million dollars in payroll and luxury tax penalties this year?

Again, I want every player just like you guys do but if we arent real we will just be frustrated at the end of the day.

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So using your logic we aren't gonna make any moves????????? We have to fill out the roster which means we have to add at least two more people. I guess you think they are just gonna be vet minimum guys? I am hoping they reach a little higher than Bowen or Ely

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Originally Posted by nolagoblue

So using your logic we aren't gonna make any moves????????? We have to fill out the roster which means we have to add at least two more people. I guess you think they are just gonna be vet minimum guys? I am hoping they reach a little higher than Bowen or Ely

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No I think max we can do is a rookie and a guy like Pargo or sell the pick and sign a Bass type but NO WAY can we do all 3. Thats all I said. 2 out of three at most- 1 out of 3 most likely unless we can dump a salary.

Re-acquiring any of our previous guys(Anderson,Bass,Pargo,etc.) is an absurd idea. I'm not saying it can't happen, but why do it? The powers that be let them go for a reason, until they change philosphy and/or are pushed out of office then it's sort of wishful thinking. These moves that have been suggested by the media in NOLA and here on this board doesn't elevate us to a championship. Bass is a bench guy on a championship team, same as Pargo and Anderson. Do we really want to overpay guy of that talent-level? Not to mention eating crow to that player gives them all the leverage against us.

These suggested moves would most likely make the 2009-10 Hornets better than the 2008-09 Hornets no question. Those sort of moves could really hurt the long term growth of this team. I would hope the front office is planning for the team to be conference finals/NBA finals participants not just SW division winners or merely playoff participants. CP3 is a once in a generation player, he won't be here forever. We should have at least a five/six year serious run with him. That should be our goal.