Pelicans Centric 2022 Top-10 Prospects

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

It's either Tyty, Hardy, or Montero

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No. No. And......No.

Start studying the name Ousmane Dieng. Really interesting prospect if you have the gonads to take that home run swing

I've been off the scouting stuff for a few months now so I'm pretty behind late developments. Any late risers in the season for you guys that I need to pay particular attention to? I'm going to be catching up on a lot of film and some stat stuff over the next few days.

Glad to see Ousmane Dieng's name coming up again - he was in my sig at the start of the season. I think he's neat.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Start studying the name Ousmane Dieng. Really interesting prospect if you have the gonads to take that home run swing

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That's too much of a gamble for where we are as a team imo. I get swinging for the fences and going for upside, but the team is ready to win and I'm not down for using a top 10 pick on someone THAT raw. If it was outside the lottery, maybe. Not for picks 8 or 9.

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Originally Posted by RUFshreve

That's too much of a gamble for where we are as a team imo. I get swinging for the fences and going for upside, but the team is ready to win and I'm not down for using a top 10 pick on someone THAT raw. If it was outside the lottery, maybe. Not for picks 8 or 9.

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I couldnt disagree more. Here is what I would research if I were you: How many top 8 picks are on the team that drafted them in their 2nd contract and DIDNT get a max contract.

I will let you know it is a very small list. So, when you think about it through that spectrum, you almost have to go for the home run when you are picking that high. You dont draft guys that help your core and will be a nice piece, a solid starter. The Hawks did that and my buddy is telling me they were in a no win situation with Cam Reddish and are about to be in one with De'Andre Hunter. Reddish wasnt going to consider an extension under 22-25 mil per year. Hunter's people are talking 25. Not because they deserve it, but because that is what the market says a wing with potential can get for their 2nd deal.

When you draft that high, you gotta assume the 2nd contract will be the max or darn close. And either you overpay a role player that to keep that or you sell lower than what you used to get him. Or......you draft a guy that you are more than happy to hand a max over to.

If you believe what you believe, then you should be arguing for the Pels to trade back. In the teens, you can take a role player and re-sign him to a reasonable contract. That simply doesnt happen in the top 8

Huh. Okay. Yeah. I was never gonna guess someone overseas.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

The Hawks did that and my buddy is telling me they were in a no win situation with Cam Reddish and are about to be in one with De'Andre Hunter. Reddish wasnt going to consider an extension under 22-25 mil per year. Hunter's people are talking 25. Not because they deserve it, but because that is what the market says a wing with potential can get for their 2nd deal.

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Mac, if Reddish wouldn't consider an extension under 22KK what would you suppose JAX' 2nd contract (drafted two slots after JAX) to be?

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Originally Posted by As I See It

Mac, if Reddish wouldn't consider an extension under 22KK what would you suppose JAX' 2nd contract (drafted two slots after JAX) to be?

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Jax is a little different because he is a big and that isnt a position of need around the league unless you are elite. Also, he wont get the minutes or the starts to have a high QO, most likely. But still, his people will ask 15-20, and Griff would be dumb to give that. So, I fully expect him to be a restricted FA and see how it plays out, if he isnt traded first.

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Originally Posted by Eman5805

Huh. Okay. Yeah. I was never gonna guess someone overseas.

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Overseas players are people too!

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Jax is a little different because he is a big and that isnt a position of need around the league unless you are elite. Also, he wont get the minutes or the starts to have a high QO, most likely. But still, his people will ask 15-20, and Griff would be dumb to give that. So, I fully expect him to be a restricted FA and see how it plays out, if he isnt traded first.

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OH-OH!!! I was thinking around 12KK; but thanks.

I mean, I am sure that is in the ballpark of what we will offer, but you cant find a guy taken in the top 8 who takes a 12 mil per year type of extension. That is what he is probably worth, but history says it would be an outlier if he signs that extension

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I couldnt disagree more. Here is what I would research if I were you: How many top 8 picks are on the team that drafted them in their 2nd contract and DIDNT get a max contract.

I will let you know it is a very small list. So, when you think about it through that spectrum, you almost have to go for the home run when you are picking that high. You dont draft guys that help your core and will be a nice piece, a solid starter. The Hawks did that and my buddy is telling me they were in a no win situation with Cam Reddish and are about to be in one with De'Andre Hunter. Reddish wasnt going to consider an extension under 22-25 mil per year. Hunter's people are talking 25. Not because they deserve it, but because that is what the market says a wing with potential can get for their 2nd deal.

When you draft that high, you gotta assume the 2nd contract will be the max or darn close. And either you overpay a role player that to keep that or you sell lower than what you used to get him. Or......you draft a guy that you are more than happy to hand a max over to.

If you believe what you believe, then you should be arguing for the Pels to trade back. In the teens, you can take a role player and re-sign him to a reasonable contract. That simply doesnt happen in the top 8

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I'm familiar with the argument for it, I just disagree. Youre acting like there's options A and B, when it comes to high ceiling or high floor. I think you can get guys that have a similar ceiling, that have shown more at a similar age. I'm not down taking a guard simply because he's 6'10 and had a few big games in the NBL. Mathurin has potential, Sharpe has potential, Murray, Griffin, etc.. they have all shown some skills that are ready to translate now. I'm not down to draft someone that is 99% potential. Just because he's all potential, doesn't mean he's got more potential.

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Originally Posted by RUFshreve

I'm familiar with the argument for it, I just disagree. Youre acting like there's options A and B, when it comes to high ceiling or high floor. I think you can get guys that have a similar ceiling, that have shown more at a similar age. I'm not down taking a guard simply because he's 6'10 and had a few big games in the NBL. Mathurin has potential, Sharpe has potential, Murray, Griffin, etc.. they have all shown some skills that are ready to translate now. I'm not down to draft someone that is 99% potential. Just because he's all potential, doesn't mean he's got more potential.

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Agree - it doesnt have to be one or the other. But I think its wrong to think about next year. So few rookies impact winning early in their career for good teams. If you want to win more next year, get the best possible guy on the MLE. Dont depend on a rookie to help with that. Personally, I want Dyson Daniels, but if their scouts think Dieng has a 5% chance of being a future 1st or 2nd NBA guy and nobody else on the board has even a 1% chance, then I would advocate for Dieng.

Remember, Milwaukee wasnt garbage when they took Giannis. They had just been in the playoffs as the 8 seed the year before. Had aspirations for more. Could ahve easily taken a guy who helped the following year. Not comparing the players, but I would personally always go highest ceiling with a top 8 pick and I would consider anything I got from any 19 year old in year 1 and year 2 gravy, not something I need and expect

I was catching up on some AJ Griffin film earlier today and I'm surprised that there hasn't been more discussion about him, honestly.

6'6, 230lbs, great frame, shot 49/44/79 splits (63% TS) on 25/10/2 per 100 while acting as arguably the third wheel on that Duke team, and whenever he got more opportunities they thrived. Duke was 32-7 overall on the season, but 12-1 in games where Griffin got over 10 shot attempts and 9-2 in games where he got at least 30 minutes. He's incredibly young as well. For example, he's more than 3 full years younger than Keegan Murray, who is a guy who is getting a lot of talk: that's got to be significant when trying to project out into the future, especially when you consider that this year's freshmen are essentially a year behind in development due to COVID.

Combine this with his pre-college stuff (I had him top 5 coming into the college season) and I really find it a bit surprising that his name seems to have cooled off so much. The latest ESPN mock has him going 8th - funnily enough to us, via the Lakers pick - but the talk seems to be relatively minor. I could be wrong but the few games I've binged seem to be reconfirming my view of him as a top 5 guy in the class.

I have never seen a perimeter shooter have as wide of a base as he does on a jumper. And yeah, he hit his 3's in a small sample size this year, but so did Justise Winslow for one year. Griffin wasnt seen as a shooter, and didnt hit at a high level in HS. The combination of the potential that its a one year wonder, small sample and the look of his shot - and I cant just assume that part of his game will be good in the pros. And then if you take that away, what are you 100% sure he will do at an above average level in the pros? And thats before we even get into the worries about durability and if that will continue.

I wouldnt hate if the Pels took him at 8, but there is no way he will be atop my board when the Pels pick. I see him as a solid starter, but as I have laid out in this thread, you create a problem for yourself when you take a "solid starter" in the top 10

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I have never seen a perimeter shooter have as wide of a base as he does on a jumper. And yeah, he hit his 3's in a small sample size this year, but so did Justise Winslow for one year. Griffin wasnt seen as a shooter, and didnt hit at a high level in HS. The combination of the potential that its a one year wonder, small sample and the look of his shot - and I cant just assume that part of his game will be good in the pros. And then if you take that away, what are you 100% sure he will do at an above average level in the pros? And thats before we even get into the worries about durability and if that will continue.

I wouldnt hate if the Pels took him at 8, but there is no way he will be atop my board when the Pels pick. I see him as a solid starter, but as I have laid out in this thread, you create a problem for yourself when you take a "solid starter" in the top 10

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I'm honestly not worried about durability for him, at least not more than I am about Paolo for example, or Chet, who are consensus top 3 in this class and also have concerns about health. So for me that doesn't really change too much - yes, AJ had durability concerns but it's not like he had multiple surgeries or anything and at least part of his missing time pre-college was family politics stuff. Obviously the teams will get physicals on guys and if his medicals come back with big red flags then that changes things.

As for his jumper having a wide base, I do agree that it is wide but at the same time I don't think it looks awkward or unstable or anything like that. The question is though, is that a problem or is it just something we don't like? It's not the most picturesque shot in the world of course, but a shot doesn't have to be aesthetic for it to work and it doesn't seem to be causing big mechanical issues: he's not taking huge leaps when he shoots, he doesn't seem to have big knee-flex issues, the shot transfers up his body nicely. It's just wide. Not optimal but it's not a huge dealbreaker for me, especially not on someone who is as young as he is.

You mention it's a small sample size but given the minutes he played, not really. He was taking 10 attempts per 100 this season: the exact same 3point attempt rate as CJ McCollum in the NBA this year, funnily enough, and a higher 3pAr than college Harden or Lillard had. His attempt rate is entirely commensurate with someone being a high volume shooter who just didn't get that many minutes.

You can argue that his shooting is a college only skill that doesn't date back to years before that, and there's some truth to that (though some people were projecting him as a positive shooting prospect prior to college: see, for example, me iirc) but it's also true to say that a lot of his best pre-college skills were skills that Coach K simply didn't allow him to show off. Which isn't surprising as Coach K frequently played guys outside of their optimal roles: maybe the reason this was Griffin's breakout 3pt year is because this was the year he was forced to stand in a corner and shoot threes all game. Worth considering, at least.

I got Griffin at 10, so I dont hate him. But my draft philosophy says that I would rather a guy with a 10% chance to be an All NBA guy and a 40% chance to be a bust than a guy who has a 2% chance to be All NBA and only a 10% chance to bust. I think most people would disagree with that philosophy, but its how I would draft. And I dont see the high, high ceiling for Griffin. I see a good floor if he stays healthy. I can see Jerami Grant, but if you take 19 year old Grant at #8, you are in the impossible position I always talk about when it comes to 2nd contract time at 22 or 23. Why I go higher upside that early in the draft every time.

That's fair, and I certainly understand that logic. I think his likelihood of being a star is perhaps a little higher than you do, though. His pre-college stardom was all based on being a pretty nifty passer with great on-ball self creation, which is something we still saw a little bit of in college (the vast majority of AJ's 2pt jumpers were unassisted and he shot over 40% on them), and if he can combine that with his newfound frame and maintain even just solid shooting - which, again, I believe is a real possibility - then that adds up to being a very very strong NBA player imo. Not top 5 in the NBA but then, I don't know anyone in this class that I'd feel confident assuming will be a top 5 in the NBA guy.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Start studying the name Ousmane Dieng. Really interesting prospect if you have the gonads to take that home run swing

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If you are going for the home run swing, why not target Sharpe, Hardy, or Duren?

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

If you are going for the home run swing, why not target Sharpe, Hardy, or Duren?

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I would be shocked if Sharpe is available at 8. If he is, you take him. Duran is a big who cant shoot -- that guy cant be worthy of a max in any universe. Hardy is a home run swing candidate. Like, my philosophy is you should take him over Johnny Davis. But the Pels scouts would tell you Dieng has a higher ceiling that Hardy when you factor in the maturity and intangibles

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I was catching up on some AJ Griffin film earlier today and I'm surprised that there hasn't been more discussion about him, honestly.

6'6, 230lbs, great frame, shot 49/44/79 splits (63% TS) on 25/10/2 per 100 while acting as arguably the third wheel on that Duke team, and whenever he got more opportunities they thrived. Duke was 32-7 overall on the season, but 12-1 in games where Griffin got over 10 shot attempts and 9-2 in games where he got at least 30 minutes. He's incredibly young as well. For example, he's more than 3 full years younger than Keegan Murray, who is a guy who is getting a lot of talk: that's got to be significant when trying to project out into the future, especially when you consider that this year's freshmen are essentially a year behind in development due to COVID.

Combine this with his pre-college stuff (I had him top 5 coming into the college season) and I really find it a bit surprising that his name seems to have cooled off so much. The latest ESPN mock has him going 8th - funnily enough to us, via the Lakers pick - but the talk seems to be relatively minor. I could be wrong but the few games I've binged seem to be reconfirming my view of him as a top 5 guy in the class.

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His lateral speed, injury history and lack of explosion is worrisome.

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

If you are going for the home run swing, why not target Sharpe, Hardy, or Duren?

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That's a pretty wide range of people. I had Duren top 10 coming into the year, as did most people whose evals I trust, and those people still have Duren top 10. Several of them have Hardy out of the first round completely at this point, for contrast, despite starting the year with him top 20.

The problem with Hardy is that if your best skill is being an iso off-the-dribble self creation guy, and you're 6'3, you better be either an explosive athlete or a generational shooter and he's neither. And it's not like he's a super raw prospect who comes from overseas or played in some no-name league, he's had the pedigree. 35%FG in the G League, 27% from 3, negative AST:TO ratio. Ouch.

Putting him in the same list as Duren who - despite being a bit of an old fashioned archetype - actually had a very strong season is a bit strange imo.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

That's fair, and I certainly understand that logic. I think his likelihood of being a star is perhaps a little higher than you do, though. His pre-college stardom was all based on being a pretty nifty passer with great on-ball self creation, which is something we still saw a little bit of in college (the vast majority of AJ's 2pt jumpers were unassisted and he shot over 40% on them), and if he can combine that with his newfound frame and maintain even just solid shooting - which, again, I believe is a real possibility - then that adds up to being a very very strong NBA player imo. Not top 5 in the NBA but then, I don't know anyone in this class that I'd feel confident assuming will be a top 5 in the NBA guy.

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I have never seen a future star be a total no show in a Final Four game. Like, sure, have an off shooting night. But he did nothing. No impact anywhere. And that happened more than once at Duke. Its fine to not score if you arent a guy getting a lot of plays drawn up for you, but if you are a top 5/top 8 pick, go do winning things other place. Guy had 17 games with 0 assists. Never had a double digit rebounding game. 26 games with 0 steals. 20 games where he didnt take a single FT. Another 10 games where he had 2 or less FT's.

Like, how does that happen when you are that much bigger and more physically gifted than almost everyone on the court? I just find it so hard to imagine a guy going from THAT to a star. Solid starter, maybe. Star? That would be the outlier of all outliers

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I would be shocked if Sharpe is available at 8. If he is, you take him. Duran is a big who cant shoot -- that guy cant be worthy of a max in any universe. Hardy is a home run swing candidate. Like, my philosophy is you should take him over Johnny Davis. But the Pels scouts would tell you Dieng has a higher ceiling that Hardy when you factor in the maturity and intangibles

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I live for hidden gems in drafts. I will look into Dieng. Any other prospects that's under the radar you would like to share would be appreciated. Thanks for the homework assignment.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

That's a pretty wide range of people. I had Duren top 10 coming into the year, as did most people whose evals I trust, and those people still have Duren top 10. Several of them have Hardy out of the first round completely at this point, for contrast, despite starting the year with him top 20.

The problem with Hardy is that if your best skill is being an iso off-the-dribble self creation guy, and you're 6'3, you better be either an explosive athlete or a generational shooter and he's neither. And it's not like he's a super raw prospect who comes from overseas or played in some no-name league, he's had the pedigree. 35%FG in the G League, 27% from 3, negative AST:TO ratio. Ouch.

Putting him in the same list as Duren who - despite being a bit of an old fashioned archetype - actually had a very strong season is a bit strange imo.

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But you gotta consider position value. Like, who has more league value -- Jonas, who is probably the 7th best center or OG, who might be the 20th or 25th best wing? Duran could become Clint Capela, but people arent knocking down the doors to get Capela. If Hardy hits and becomes say more explosive Terry Rozier, that has more value than Duran at his likely median outcome.