I'd be patient and wait for the 30% Christmas sales.
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In all seriousness I'd do that Niko, Hill, Johnson and filler (Frazier) for Wall, Oubre and Morris trade.
Only thing I don't know is can Davis still be given the max and can they afford Randle next offseason?
A team of:
Wall/Payton/Jackson
Holiday/Moore/Clark
Oubre/Miller/Williams
Randle/Morris/Diallo
Davis/Okafor
Would be nice going into 2019.
Beal is perfect if we want to try to win this year. Would 2 firsts (and salary fillers like solo and Johnson) work for Beal and oubre? Would Firsts and savings be tempting enough and is anyone else offering as much? If I were the wiz I prob wouldn’t move Beal at all but if I can’t move wall then I would. Unfortunately I wouldn’t give up Moore, Niko, or Randle if the plan is to try and win it all this year. I know MM would say it’s impossible but I’ve seen some funky trades and if nothing is better at the deadline they could take it. Jrue, Beal, Oubre, Davis, and Mirotic with a bench of Payton, Moore, and Randle could compete with anyone.
This is a fallacy trap many fall into. Because there are a handful of lopsided trades in NBA history, we can justify our hope that another lopsided one will come our way.
That's not how it works. Most extremely lopsided NBA trades.did not appear lopsided at the time and/or only had one or two bidders because either the player would only re-sign with one or two teams or most teams.didnt want the guy because of off court or injury issues
That is not Beal. He is a good player in his prime on a solid contract who a dozen plus teams would put in an offer for. So.... The "I have seen crazy trades in the past" logic doesn't apply here
And then the trade happens and everyone is like "How?!"
That's the reason why everyone reacted that way when those trades do happen. It's like...I don't know, it's like some weird inverse of a Cassandra truth. Something happens, but no one is able to believe it because they could never see it realistically happening. It'd put that at a 10% chance and leave it there.
All these insane trade ideas when the focus should be on how we can keep OUR OWN, Nico and Randall.
Let’s say we can make a big move that keeps the bigs and Moore. What do you think our chances would be at making conference championship? I think good and be willing to roll with it. Next year both Randle and Mirotic could leave but just maybe they’d stay for a little more and another shot at the title together. I know Beal is a pipe dream but hopefully he comes out saying he want to come to the pelicans then we can roll out a great 4 guard and 3 big rotation.
I think a Mirotic + Hill + protected 1st rounder for Otto Porter would make a lot of sense for the Pelicans. When it comes to be playoff time, we would be able to play our best 5 players simultaneously without sacrificing pace or space. We could play lineups with Jrue + Payton + Porter, Jrue + Moore + Porter, or maybe all 4 with Davis at the 5 if we really want to go fast. Mirotic has been a great player but we will need to re-sign both him and Randle this off-season. Signing both to big contracts doesn't seem logical given that our best lineup most likely won't be with both of them. I think Mirotic's value is probably at its highest now and Randle will have potential to grow.
Having said all of this, I really hate giving up the 1st rounder and I wouldn't normally think this is a good trade. We need to fill out our roster with young prospects. However, being successful this year is more important so that we have a better chance at re-signing Davis. There is no future without him.
Also, I'm not exactly sure Washington would be so willing to do this. Porter is still young and has potential and they probably can find a better return unless they were intent on re-signing Niko. If they just view Niko as an expiring, then I think a lot of these trade ideas aren't likely. Can someone confirm if we trade Niko, would the team that gets him own his bird rights this off-season? I assume that would greatly change his value in any trade packages.
If the Pels give up Niko in the Porter trade, I think they demand Morris back too. The issue is that they need to get up to at least 29+ mil in salary going out for that to happen - which means Niko, Wes, and Hill going out. My ideal deal would be those 3 plus Frazier going out for Morris, Porter, and Satoransky.
The Pels and Wiz can give some cash to a 3rd team to take Wes and Frazier - and that deal would get Washington below the tax. The deal would save Washington close to 30 mil this year and a ton of money over the next few years. Plus Bird Rights to Niko, who could fit next to Wall-Beal-Oubre
That trade makes a ton of sense for both teams. But it can't happen until Dec. 15th
That trade is growing on me, as much as I'd love to keep Niko. It balances us nicely and gives us a concrete plan going forwards in terms of contracts (and solidifes Randle as the partner for AD going forwards).
Payton
Jrue
Porter
AD
Randle
Satoransky
Moore
Miller
Morris
Diallo
Jackson
Clear pecking order and clearly defined roles throughout the whole team
Exactly. I understand people want to keep all our good players and add a wing like Porter, but you aren't keeping that all together beyond this season anyway. I'd rather signal to Randle now that he is the big we want to move forward with and clearly define all roles and positions. Plus, Niko has more trade value and I think the Pels can keep the pick or at least heavily protect it if he is the one in the deal.
My issue in this deal is Porter. I am a Georgetown fan and I have just never seen this guy compete like a dog. He is smooth and talented, but I don't see the grit that it takes to scratch and claw out games in May. If he was the same guy but had Demarre Carroll's intangibles, I would be all in.
Maybe his lack of grit is influenced by his surroundings? Would coming to N.O. give him the push he needs? We have a tight locker room and our team does work hard, so maybe that plays a factor in deciding whether to go for Porter. I do agree that we move Nico, a player whom I love, because he is a great trade piece and we need to commit to Randle. There is something about Randall that just seems right with this team moving forward. His energy and skills are a unique combo, which meshes well with the unique talents of AD.
I’d definitely be on board with that trade, balanced with depth throughout. Question though— what’s stopping the Sacramento Kings from making a better offer? They have the expiring contracts and cap space to make a more appealing offer than including S. Hill. And they offered him that huge contract in the first place, so they probably wouldn’t hesitate to take on all that salary.
The Kings don’t have Niko to offer. Niko is pretty much better than anyone the Kings would trade at this point. I am still not sold on Porter as the missing piece. We would basically lock into a team of Holiday/Porter with hopes of re-signing Randle and Davis. Flexibility to sign a worthy max contract player in the offseason seems more valuable. I would hope to get Thompson, Walker, or Cousins. Durant and Leonard are pipe dreams.
What about a 3 way deal with Brooklyn and Chicago.
We send Niko and Wes to Brooklyn. Send Solo, cash and 2nd rd pick to Chicago.
Brooklyn sends us Carroll and Dinwiddie. Sends a 2nd rd pick to Chicago.
Chicago sends us Lopez and Holiday.
We recieve: Carroll, Dinwiddie, Lopez, Holiday
Brooklyn receive: Niko, Wes
Chicago receive: Hill, Brooklyn 2nd rd pick, our 2nd rd pick, + cash
That may be the worst trade I have seen proposed here. Why in the world would the Pelicans trade 3 1st rounders, Niko and Moore for a guy with a terrible attitude, bad knees and an albatross of a contract like Wall? That is the kind of trade that would sink a team now and in the future.
I think it’s funny that Mm thinks we can’t keep Randle and Niko next year but in the same breath thinks we could keep Randle with porter making way more (if we were to trade for Porter). Apparently Randles ego won’t get in the way for a SF like it would for another PF. There is a huge chance that if we trade Niko we could lose Randle in the off season as well. I’m ok with or without Niko but we’ve shown we can win with him and if Randle signs somewhere for a lot more we’ll have a lot of money for free agents but I’d rather take my chances resigning both this offseason then breaking up the chemistry we’ve been building.
We need to move solo and a first for an expiring in order to resign Niko, randle and maybe Payton.
I can go into more detail trying to explain the logistics behind the scenes and the obvious differences in the two scenarios here, but I will stop. I know you guys just want to believe that they can add a wing and then also keep all the free agents and live in Utopia, so I won't fight against.it.
But when Niko is traded, don't come to me asking me to explain why. I already tried
im holding out that dallas fade out and we can trade niko for harrison barnes so he can be the new dirk for them...
I still see a path to keeping both Nico and JR. How about Wes and Solo and a pick for Lopez and Holiday
I’m not saying they won’t move Niko and I do understand why you would potentially move him for future potential. What I don’t understand is with a decent piece or 2 we could have a very special year and even you you have said it’s so hard to win a championship. I personally think Niko, Randle, and Davis at the bigs gives us our best chance this year.
The other reason I want to go all in this year is nobody seems to think we’d lose Randle in the offseason. Teams are going to have so much money that I doubt any wink wink deal will work. Whatever we trade for will have to be expiring to keep him especially if his ego is going to get in the way. MM I’m not bashing your insight into the team but more the lack of faith that this team could be great this year and I don’t think moving core pieces will help.
Rumour: Pels interested in playing defence once every 10 games
Yes I'd like you to go into more details about why you think Randle is safe if Niko is traded.
We already know Niko is on the chopping block because we saw that we were trying to move him in the Butler trade.
But if you have some inside insight on why the Pels think they can keep Randle given our current cap situation and how much more money other teams will have this offseason then please spill it.
From the outside looking in whether Niko is here or not if Randle keeps up this play its going to be hard to clear enough space to keep him.
They wouldn't clear cap space. They would sign him to a 2/21 with a wink wink that he will opt out in summer of 2020 to sign for 4/80. He aint getting a 5/90 next summer, which would be essentially what the Pels would be offering.
Now, your retort will be, "Why would he do that and risk losing it all if he ruptures an Achilles"
Well, he wouldn't if the Pels signed Niko long term and he knows they don't need him as much. He holds just as much leverage if he is there only other option at big after trading Niko.
Is it POSSIBLE, someone comes along and offers 4/80 next summer and Randle doesn't take that risk. Of course its possible. But thats unlikely.
The Pels have a couple of plays here - all of which have pros and cons. All of which could blow up in their face if one team comes out of nowhere a la Rondo. But the highest percentage play is moving Niko for a SF, keeping Randle and boosting up his belief that he is necessary and part of the future and getting him to sign a wink-wink this summer. That is all assuming, of course, that AD re-signs as well.
Its a high wire act. As always. But its the highest percentage play amongst a lot of options that are unlikely. The most unlikely of which is trying to keep everyone and hoping that both Niko re-signs this summer AND Randle takes that same wink-wink for some reason, despite him knowing that the Pels could easily walk away from him if something goes wrong.
I think it's a huge logical fallacy to believe no team will offer Randle a big deal this summer and yet we will offer him that type of deal in two years.
The only thing we can do is as you said, offer some wink wink deal. But if some team gives him 50m more guaranteed than us, that's a huge ask for a guy who has never gotten a big payday to walk away from and risk it all.
As it stands I think odds are more in favor of Randle getting another big offer that is hard to pass up than it is that we resign him. We poached Moore doing this same method that some team will use on Randle. The Lakers poached Rondo just last summer using this method. And those weren't even for much more money.
For all the talk of fans dreaming of keeping all the players and having it all, this Randle scenario of a wink wink deal seems like just as much of a fan fiction dream.
I would downright call Randle stupid if he got offered a big deal from another team and turned it down because of a wink wink deal with us. Loyalty only goes so far and as we just saw with Cousins, one injury and it all goes away.
I also agree that with the amount of money teams will have next offseason, Randle will get a 4/$80 million offer. Some mid tier team missing out on the superstars would do well pursuing a player like Randle. He won’t pass that kind of deal up if we can’t match it. If AD holds off on accepting the max extension next year, that further clouds the situation of a wink wink loyalty deal. The guy has never been paid that kind of money, and he is worth it.
MM, I am surprised you believe a wink wink deal with Randle is our best option. That seems like a foolish bet.
If Porter prevents us from signing Randle to a 4/$80 million deal in the offseason, then I wouldn’t pursue Porter. Randle is a significantly better player than Porter. Porter is an above average starting SF on max contract. Those kind of overpays destroy teams.
Weren't we in that same situation with Boogie whereby we needed him and yet, after his injury, allowed him to walk? Would Randle's agent see that as a possibility?
Also, in your opinion, would trading for Porter move the needle as far as convincing AD he needs to stay and re-sign? If the answer is not yes, is it worth taking on that deal?
1. I don't think you know what a fallacy is. Or you do and you used it incorrectly here.
2. I think the odds of Randle get a big, multi year deal is much smaller than you think. Over the past few years, we are seeing teams going after top flight options and then if they don't get them, they use their space on guys with 1 or 2 year deals. Basically kicking the can forward. Look at this past summer. Find me the non all stars that got big, multi year deals from a new team.
3. These aren't my "fan fiction" thoughts. I actually never even thought of this route. This thought process is coming from people who actually make the decisions. Not some random blogger.
The only way you sign Randle to 4/80 this summer is if you clear a bunch of other things off the books, get rid of cap holds and also lose tools like the MLE. Regardless of whether or not you get Porter, the Pels should not clear cap space this summer just to use it to sign Randle to some big deal
If the only question you are asking yourself is: Does this move convince AD to re-sign?
Then, you will not make a move because no move will present itself that will make his re-signing a no brainer.
Every choice Dell has is a choice that has less than a 50% chance of working. You have to hope to get lucky and to catch lightning in a bottle. Some "no brainer, home run" opportunity aint coming along.
There's two things that will keep Davis and those two things are money and/or contending team. The money we have on our side. Dell has to do his best to put a contender together. I just don't see how we do that giving Otto Porter max money.
Its not and/or....its AND
Money alone won't be enough. He will have to see a team that will contend not only next year but for at least the next 3 or 4. And you can do it with Otto at that salary IF Otto unleashes his full potential, like Jrue has done.
John Wall has the bigger potential of crashing and burning, but I also believe he has the higher upside and the better chance to trick AD into thinking you will be a long term contender. I can see a scenario where Wall comes and is super motivated for the rest of the year and the team causes havoc. Randle tells AD he will agree to the wink-wink if he signs the super max and AD thinks to himself "I got Jrue and Wall giving me one of the best backcourts in the league and Randle hitting his prime. KD is leaving GS, we can be a dynasty!"
He would be wrong, but I could see a scenario where he believes that and signs the supermax because of it. Harder for me to see him believing a dynasty is possible because they added Porter or DeMarre Carroll or Ariza, etc.
thats why i hope we can some how get barnes because he can step right in and play the system and give us offense and defense...payton,,jrue,,barnes,,AD,,randall starting 5 is all i want to see come playoff time....moore as the 6th man...the rest of the bench becoming strong from a hill and 1st trade and go to battle with that......im praying for this...
There weren't a ton of big contracts given out because the cap didn't move a ton and so many teams were strapped for cash. This is a completely different situation than what's coming this summer.
It's simple: How much do you think Niko is going to get this summer and do you think Randle is better than Niko? This idea that Randle won't get a good offer well larger than us is just wrong. He will in this market. And as was pointed out there's just the example of Cousins getting injured and this organization not giving a big long term deal. Any agent worth his salt is going to push Randle towards the guaranteed money especially if it's a good size difference between than 2yr/24ish that we can offer Randle.
Either Randle is worth the 4yr/80m contract now or he's not. This logic that no team will offer him that type of deal this summer BUT we will promise him that a year later is stupid. How is that not considered an overpay then at that point and why should we pay a guy 80m if he's not worth it? Because he's worth more to us? That's stupid logic, people roasted the Asik deal and Hill deal because of that same thinking.
I don't care if it's you thinking it or it's someone in the front office, it's a logical fallacy to believe that Randle won't get that type of offer if he's worth it.
There are also far more free agents this year. FORTY NINE percent of the league will be free agents. On top of that, a good draft class is coming in too.
Teams are smarter now. They won't just spend money to spend it and if they do, they will be doing it with one or two year contracts unless the guy is already on their team and Bird Rights allow them to go over. Moving forward, only the elite players or players who have the potential to be elite will be signed to massive long term deals. And Randle is neither of those things. He is an undersized big who can't shoot well in a league that values shooting.
He only fits and can finish game next to a hand full of guys. AD is one of those. You will see.... He ain't getting those offers you seem to think he will get