Thanks for the clarification.
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I guess one good thing is in recent drafts, that 10 - 20 range seems to be a sweet spot for landing impactful players if you draft well.
That range pretty much defined the 2017 draft. Yes the Lonzo draft.
Players who have gone between 10 and 20 in the last 5 drafts:
2019: Cam Johnson, PJ Washington, Tyler Herro, Matisse Thybulle
2018: Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Donte DiVincenzo, Michael Porter Jr, Kevin Huerter
2017: Zach Collins, Luke Kennard, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, John Collins
2016: Domantas Sabonis, Malik Beasley, Caris LeVert
2015: Myles Turner, Devin Booker, Kelly Oubre
That is to say, there's usually at least a handful of decent players to be had in that range, and if you're smart/lucky, a few stars as well.
I think I'm really settled on Okoro and Nesmith.
If I had the choice of getting a 2nd pick to draft both without having to gamble on either. I honestly might do it.
Now if we decided to move up in the late 20s... I'd definitely like Desmond Bane. Would be a great bench player that should definitely ready play on day one.
In Langdon, I trust.
Would take Bane over Nesmith.
For me, there are a bunch of players I would be happy to come out of this draft with, and a few names I really want.
So, I want Pokusevski.
I would also be very happy to come out of the draft with: Tyrese Maxey, Grant Riller, Desmond Bane, Xavier Tillman, Killian Tillie, Malachi Flynn, Patrick Williams.
This isn't counting guys like Okongwu who are obviously going top 10, where we are not likely to be.
Yeah, I'm trying cut down my list to probable players. Poku isn't on there. I think the unique skillset with his potential will make him soar up into the late top ten or right before us.
I've slightly sour on Poku's film with all this extra time to second guess myself like an idiot. I don't like his touch around the rim and isn't great at really anything on defense. If Langdon approves of him. I won't question it. 100% don't see him getting passed on by the Spurs.
So, I'm kind of stuck on wings being our pick.
Why do San An pick before us? Is there a trade I’m not remembering? And thanks
I completely disagree about Poku's defense. He's got issues, sure, but his instincts are super high level. Block and steal rates high as hell, and have been for years.
Like, yes, he's competing against relatively low level competition, but what you want to see when an NBA prospect competes against low level competition is domination, and that's what he does.
I could see him potentially going in the top ten if someone takes a punt, but if he's still there when we pick I take him easily.
As for wings, I don't see why that would be a priority. Like, yes, they are an important position in today's NBA, but we're also desperate for another big, and we have a real need for a legitimate lead guard as well, so we're in a clear position where you ignore team need and just take whoever you think is best. For example, I'd take Riller easily even though he's a guard because I think he has upside to be a legitimate NBA creator, which is a super valuable thing for any team.
His defensive playmaking ability against low level competition just doesn't impress me. His foot work isn't consistent and this is what really worries me. His IQ is good against his competition , but nothing that inclines me to believe in that he'll be a defensive specialist. His bright spot is his team defense. He doesn't get out of synch with his teams. Which a good sign that he has untapped potential. I don't think I ever seen a player with a high synergy rating be a bad defender. Maybe a raw one at best.
His midrange game is a huge question mark. He isn't a great spot up shooter. His 3pt shoot is a bit overrated. I don't like a 7 footer being this sub par around the rim against low level competition.
This is all from having a second go around at Poku. I generally never do second looks, because I c n be hyper critical to the point if unreasonable. Especially, when I am also watching NBA basketball at the sametime. All I be doing is working in the Covid hospital and home. So... I'm a little testy lol.
I floated the idea of a lead guard and Riller is a great trade down prospect. Until we do something about our current guard personnel, I really don't want to force it. So I'm More focused on the Best Player Available for our current pick.
NBADraft.net seems to have the preferred draft. Nesmith and this Poku dude.
I think what has to remembered with Poku is that he's incredibly young. Like, there are sophomores in this class who are 3 years older than Poku is. Almost all of the film we have of him is from when he was 17; only a handful of games come after he turned 18. So when you say he isn't a great spot up shooter, this is true, but his pullup is actually quite good and for someone of his age that's much more important to me.
I agree that there are concerns, but there are even more concerns for the vast majority of players in this class, and they are mostly years older as well. Poku is my pick for the upside; sure, if he never puts on weight or puts his shot package together he might never be great, but if he does then the outcome is so much higher than just some mediocre ''he was alright in college'' type.
I have a feeling if they remain at 12, Kira Lewis Jr will be the pick while Lonzo and Jrue move on somewhere else.
I wouldnt be mad with that.
If I'm picking at 12 and I'm choosing a guard, I'm taking Riller.
I think that outside of guys like Antman, Riller has the highest chance in this draft of being an actual NBA level initiator as a guard. Ridiculous shot maker and shot creator, absurd driving ability with burst and athleticism, legitimately bonkers finishing ability at the rim, solid and improving passer, etc etc. He would fill so many of our needs right away, along with having upside
We know his speed will translate, but that doesn't extend to much else about his game. Yes he has upside to add strength, but will he? He's 165lbs at 6'3, he would be one of the lightest players in the league even if he put on 25lbs, and how much will his speed survive that weight gain?
He's not a particularly skilled passer, although he definitely has flashes. His decision making is hit and miss. He's a pretty dreadful defender. He's not a particularly talented creator of his own shot off the dribble, especially in the halfcourt.
Now he is very young for a sophomore, so you can take the bet that his solid shooting does translate with NBA spacing (he has a decent FT% which helps that) and you can guess that he'll add weight while maintaining speed; it's possible.
But in that situation you are taking a lot of risks. I feel like Riller has more upside than he's shown in college still, but at least has given proof over multiple seasons of his ability to do what he can do. Ridiculous amounts of self creation, the efficiency at the rim is crazy, and when you're evaluating shooting you care about versatility of shot profile. Riller takes step backs, catch and shoots, comes off screens, pulls up, the whole shebang. That's encouraging.
I would say that he is probably the perfect shooter you build around Zion. Excellent catch and shot, off screen and in movement. Got great length, but plagued by poor footwork where he really probably never be an elite level defender, but starting caliber... Sure. Needs a facilitater and can't create for himself or a great finisher.
At 12th... He is reach, but a need when your only true shooter is 36 years old. I still wouldn't pick him at 12th if I had what I believe is on the board.
His growth made me a fan of Stackhouse as a coach.
I wouldn't pick Bane 12th either, I'd probably pick Poku if he was still there or Riller if not at that point, assuming that nobody from my top 10 had fallen down, but yeah as a late first round or even second round pick, love Bane.
Not really sure why Nesmith has gotten so much media attention but Bane hasn't.