2022-23 Offseason Thread

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I mean, a 24 year old NBA rookie is quite old. There's just no way around that. The rest is up for discussion but he's just undeniably very old for an NBA rookie.

---

Jose was 23 when we signed him. Would be interesting to see if you said the same thing last year prior to the break out (not saying Plowden is an NBA guy, but your reasoning is flawed)

You can always find outliers to make the argument you want to make. Sure, 2 or 3 guys came out of nowhere in summer league last year. You know what that means? 2 or 3 HUNDRED, became nothing.

Its disingenuous to make arguments like that -- to point to the outliers and say, "If this person did it, then so will that person"

If you want to say that John Butler or Plowden has a 1 percent chance to ever do anything meaningful in the NBA (as opposed to zero), then fine. But that is the argument -- does Plowden have a 0 percent chance or a 1 percent chance to matter? And I cant imagine the point of having a heated discussion about that, but such is late July in the offseason

What's the great thing? We got a guy out of 300 that doesn't become nothing

I would bank on Jose having a career not too far off of FVV

Major Alpha dog vibes combined with a lot of actual Basketball skill

Yeah, but realism doesn't have to have an edge. I wouldn't say Graham "stinks" or that "nobody" would ever amount to anything. Graham definitely regressed but he could have been injured and Jose came out of nowhere and eventually amounted to something. What you're saying is basically right, but it could be expressed more gently without losing any insight.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

You can always find outliers to make the argument you want to make. Sure, 2 or 3 guys came out of nowhere in summer league last year. You know what that means? 2 or 3 HUNDRED, became nothing.

Its disingenuous to make arguments like that -- to point to the outliers and say, "If this person did it, then so will that person"

If you want to say that John Butler or Plowden has a 1 percent chance to ever do anything meaningful in the NBA (as opposed to zero), then fine. But that is the argument -- does Plowden have a 0 percent chance or a 1 percent chance to matter? And I cant imagine the point of having a heated discussion about that, but such is late July in the offseason

---

Who is having a heated discussion? These guys are on E-10 deals who cares whether they're 18 or 24

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AusPel

What's the great thing? We got a guy out of 300 that doesn't become nothing

I would bank on Jose having a career not too far off of FVV

Major Alpha dog vibes combined with a lot of actual Basketball skill

---

I will go way, way under on my expectations for Jose

But that’s what makes it fun. He might become FVV. 99 percent of the time, he won’t though and the poster who wants to be realistic shouldn’t be railed on so much IMO

Don’t forget, the narrative this time last year was that Naji was Josh Hart (or better!) at 1/10th the cost. Not a couple of people saying that…the majority

And that’s fine. Have hope. Hope your team found the diamond in the rough. But most likely they haven’t and Alvarado will just be another guy we fondly remember 10 years from now for having a few shining moments

And that’s fine too

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Don’t forget, the narrative this time last year was that Naji was Josh Hart (or better!) at 1/10th the cost. Not a couple of people saying that…the majority

And that’s fine. Have hope. Hope your team found the diamond in the rough. But most likely they haven’t and Alvarado will just be another guy we fondly remember 10 years from now for having a few shining moments

And that’s fine too

---

I myself, thought Naji could give us 70% of Hart at the fraction of the cost.

Boy, was I wrong

I'm inclined to think Alvarado will be a rotation guy on a playoff team

Will I be horribly wrong again?

Stay tuned to the same Bat time, same Bat channel

Wow MM, forgot about that one. I thought everyone was crazy for thinking Naji was something. He's a fine 12th-15th guy who can maybe give you decent spot minutes with injuries on the roster. Late season basketball in lost seasons really convinces fans of some wild stuff.

He's a great vibes guy, everyone seems to love him and Willy.

A lot of the joy of fandom is hope. I get it. I bet that if you created a search for 'NAW for MIP' on this board, you would get a lot of hits. Fans want to take positive small sample sizes and extrapolate them. Small negative sample sizes - throw those away.

Thats what being a fan is. And that is fine. My only pushback is that when someone comes in and wants to talk most likely or most realistic outcomes, they shouldnt be thrown out into the cold for having that take. I would bet a lot of money Plowden wont be anything, but if you want to dream, go for it. Just dont act like I am a pessimist when I say Plowden wont be anything. I think that is a fair trade off

As for Alvarado, I would set the over/under for his career impact around TJ McConnell and I would bet the under, slightly

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

A lot of the joy of fandom is hope. I get it. I bet that if you created a search for 'NAW for MIP' on this board, you would get a lot of hits. Fans want to take positive small sample sizes and extrapolate them. Small negative sample sizes - throw those away.

Thats what being a fan is. And that is fine. My only pushback is that when someone comes in and wants to talk most likely or most realistic outcomes, they shouldnt be thrown out into the cold for having that take. I would bet a lot of money Plowden wont be anything, but if you want to dream, go for it. Just dont act like I am a pessimist when I say Plowden wont be anything. I think that is a fair trade off

As for Alvarado, I would set the over/under for his career impact around TJ McConnell and I would bet the under, slightly

---

Imma take somewhere between TJ floor and JJ Barea ceiling

JJ is a weird ceiling because he is basically offense only. I think the ceiling comp is Pat Bev. If he could become a 5th starter, sometimes finisher, who helps with the culture, that is a MASSIVE win.

We have to remember Jose came in with his gas tank full at the end of the year while everyone else was just kind of gliding along. Its a totally different thing to impact games 82 times a year, year after year, with just energy and efforts (as opposed to effort plus skill).

Guys who try to play like that all year get banged up and are in and out of the lineup, get out of rhythm and because they are low usage, often lose their regular role in the rotation when they go through slumps. I think Jose's most likely outcome is a 3rd PG, but if the offensive skills continue to develop and become consistent, I could see a Pat Bev ceiling. Still, I'd bet on Kira having the better career

Never one to be content (or realistic?)...I fully expect Herb to take a huge leap offensively and become Pels' main ball handler by mid-season. Afraid I'm not so optimistic on the future of Jose (or Val) ...but ya never know.

I get the mindset of never being content on something you can improve or control or influence. You have no way of impacting Herbs development, though.

Always been an odd little thing to me. I remember people saying things like “well, dude, I don’t just settle for having a mediocre team”

And I have always thought, “well, dude, you have no choice in that matter. What’s gonna happen is gonna happen, completely regardless of you and your desires”

OK...I'll just have to be content to leave it at... "expect". BTW: I was a "Sochan guy"...but I guess I was wrong on that one. Probably a whole lot easier to find a "Sochan" on down the road...than to find a "DD".

Depends what Sochan becomes. I don’t think it’s impossible for him to become a bigger Anonoby, and if he is that, then that is really hard to find.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AusPel

What's the great thing? We got a guy out of 300 that doesn't become nothing

I would bank on Jose having a career not too far off of FVV

Major Alpha dog vibes combined with a lot of actual Basketball skill

---

FVV is a top 60 player, so if Alvarado ever hit that kind of level I'd be pretty surprised honestly.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AusPel

I myself, thought Naji could give us 70% of Hart at the fraction of the cost.

Boy, was I wrong

I'm inclined to think Alvarado will be a rotation guy on a playoff team

Will I be horribly wrong again?

Stay tuned to the same Bat time, same Bat channel

---

Alvarado is legit, he has "it". When he is on the floor he is a difference maker, provides a spark. Expect him to have a good NBA career.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

FVV is a top 60 player, so if Alvarado ever hit that kind of level I'd be pretty surprised honestly.

---

Did you see Alvarado in the Worlds?

Man's was looking like the best player on the floor

Coupled with that dog he has in him

Hooboy

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AusPel

Did you see Alvarado in the Worlds?

Man's was looking like the best player on the floor

Coupled with that dog he has in him

Hooboy

---

I have very little doubt that he'll be an NBA player for years to come, and will probably spend several of those years as a very solid rotation player even on good teams. But there's a huge difference between that and being like, the 55th best player in the NBA or similar. Not impossible and if it does happen I'll be very pleased, but I just wouldn't bet on it.

Can we get the players Twitter updated on the main page? We still seeing Ian Clark and Eldridge Payton haha

People thought Naji was Josh Hart at a fraction of the cost because he actually produced at that level. It wasn't based on hopes and dreams. Also Josh Hart straight up got better as a player last year. Which can happen at age 26.

But of course people with narratives to prove will jump in the second he hits a trough.

Growth doesn't happen in a straight line. He's still a young 24 year old, long 6'7" player that can handle, play defense, and playmake enough. Also can provide a lot of intangibles you want from a bench player.

But of course when he plays well the talk will return to chirps again. At the very least he is tradeable unlike that "veteran" sitting on the bench.

Now if Jose happens to have a few bad games I'll just avoid this place as per the usual. It'll be rinse repeat.

Naji may be someone who was hurt a little by summer league. He got to handle the ball more and became a bit of a ballhog. Once he got a taste of that, it seemed he tried to be more involved in the offense in the regular season rather than just doing all the dirty things. He has value as a defender, but needs to learn when to stop forcing terrible shots. He shot 20% from 3, but kept shooting.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by luckyman

People thought Naji was Josh Hart at a fraction of the cost because he actually produced at that level. It wasn't based on hopes and dreams. Also Josh Hart straight up got better as a player last year. Which can happen at age 26.

But of course people with narratives to prove will jump in the second he hits a trough.

Growth doesn't happen in a straight line. He's still a young 24 year old, long 6'7" player that can handle, play defense, and playmake enough. Also can provide a lot of intangibles you want from a bench player.

But of course when he plays well the talk will return to chirps again. At the very least he is tradeable unlike that "veteran" sitting on the bench.

Now if Jose happens to have a few bad games I'll just avoid this place as per the usual. It'll be rinse repeat.

---

And when he barely plays/doesnt play and washes away into irrelevance, I am sure you will come on here and say "Yeah, I was wrong about that one. I guess end of season flukes happen. Quite often, actually. I will learn to be more realistic the next time and wait for a larger sample size"

Positive you will say that, because unlike everyone else, you admit when you are wrong. Because you are always the bigger person.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by luckyman

People thought Naji was Josh Hart at a fraction of the cost because he actually produced at that level. It wasn't based on hopes and dreams. Also Josh Hart straight up got better as a player last year. Which can happen at age 26.

But of course people with narratives to prove will jump in the second he hits a trough.

Growth doesn't happen in a straight line. He's still a young 24 year old, long 6'7" player that can handle, play defense, and playmake enough. Also can provide a lot of intangibles you want from a bench player.

But of course when he plays well the talk will return to chirps again. At the very least he is tradeable unlike that "veteran" sitting on the bench.

Now if Jose happens to have a few bad games I'll just avoid this place as per the usual. It'll be rinse repeat.

---

Don't get me wrong, I love Naji on this team. Great 13th-15th player, doesn't seem to complain about minutes, loves his teammates, and is a good size to defend if we have bad injury luck. And sure, maybe he can be a the last guy in a playoff rotation if the shot comes around and if he's in the right situation. I personally dont see that.

In terms of the Hart-Marshall comparison, Hart does 1 thing at a truly elite level for his size, rebound. Naji is a B-, C+ at a bunch of stuff. Also, I think a lot of that comparison came from Pels fans thinking Hart is/was a really good defender. He's decent, but that's it. Pre-Herb, he was often tasked with guarding the best wing. He gives 110% effort too so I think people extrapolated that to him being a really good defender.
Naji is the same, works his ****** off, pesters the other teams perimeter player and seems like he's better at defense that he is in reality. This isn't a slight at either guy, I like both of them on and off the court. I think fans (not just Pels fans) have rose colored glasses when watching guys who try hard but are only average to slightly above average on D

Christian Wood and Kenrich Williams were also once considered by some as end of season flukes. And that's just from Pelicans recent history. Some posters should stick to fake insider news. But sure, odds are Naji doesn't become much better.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

Naji may be someone who was hurt a little by summer league. He got to handle the ball more and became a bit of a ballhog. Once he got a taste of that, it seemed he tried to be more involved in the offense in the regular season rather than just doing all the dirty things. He has value as a defender, but needs to learn when to stop forcing terrible shots. He shot 20% from 3, but kept shooting.

---

I said something similar at the time, but honestly, I dont think he was ever good.

There are literally hundreds of players over the last decade or so who show out at the end of every season for bad teams and put up numbers, getting people all excited and then are never that again. Everyone else is going through the slog of the season, and some guy on a non guaranteed deal comes in fresh in Jan or February and is going 110%. Go ahead, name literally any bad team from last year and I will give you a guy that the fan base thinks is some fantastic diamond in the rough based on that exact criteria.

Did you guys know Oshae Brissett averaged 14 and 7 after the All Star break last year?! Or that Drew Eubanks put up 14.5 points per game on 65% shooting over the final 22 games for the Blazers last year? Ignas Brazdekis showed some real signs down the stretch for Orlando too!!

I can go on and on. 90+ percent of these guys who all pop at the end of the year on bad teams never do anything again. Someone just has to get numbers on bad teams playing it out down the stretch.

Does anyone think Naji is some fantastic diamond in the rough though? I think people are saying that his best case scenario is like the 10th man on a playoff team, and his worst case is still a really good teammate and guy who can come in and give 100% effort if there's injuries. I'd assume we pick up the club option next year at 1.9 mil unless something changes with the roster. He's obviously not untouchable in a trade.

My point was/is that the discourse LAST SUMMER was that he was Hart or better. I promise you that was the narrative. Coming off a few solid games at end of year and Summer League.

Now, we all know he is not that. Its POSSIBLE the same thing happens with Jose. I wouldnt say likely, but its possible.

There was an offseason where, based off a small sample size and a good SL, NAW was hyped up as a MIP candidate.

I dont know how we even got into this convo and I am not trying to be the Debbie Downer. But I am not putting anybody in PEN as a good rotational piece until I see it for longer. I dont get excited like some. It takes more than 6 three's in a SL game or a couple of good reg season games at the end of a season to convince me a guy is a real player

Hart also changed how he played. He didn't always give a ******** under SVG.

Right, but older players aren’t given the benefit of the doubt in that direction

The new guys who has barely played, but played with a ton of energy, is always given the benefit of the doubt that they will only get better. When, historically, that simply isn’t true. There are tons of examples of a player like Jose peaking in that first year and never having a similar impact like that again. But predict that for his future and you are insane pessimist.

Again, I have no idea how his career will play out. I just know that assuming he will be a quality to good rotation player is not something I would assume based off the very small, specific sample size we saw last year. Heck, remember Instant Grits? People were in love with that dude for the same exact reasons and figured he would be a mainstay rotational piece. Then, poof, nothing

Would you bet on Kira or Jose having a longer career?

Sources: The Atlanta Hawks have waived guard Sharife Cooper, @hoopshype has learned. https://t.co/bRjuLN1AsY

— Michael Scotto (@MikeAScotto) July 25, 2022

Can’t believe we drafted a 22 year old non shooter over Sharife Cooper just because he played basketball at Alabama near the Squadron. Should we fire David Griffin?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pelafanatic

Sources: The Atlanta Hawks have waived guard Sharife Cooper, @hoopshype has learned. https://t.co/bRjuLN1AsY

? Michael Scotto (@MikeAScotto) July 25, 2022

Can?t believe we drafted a 22 year old non shooter over Sharife Cooper just because he played basketball at Alabama near the Squadron. Should we fire David Griffin?

---

Yeah, last year some lost it when we drafted Herb Jones in the second round when Cooper was still on the board. One guy in particular said that Griffin should be fired on the spot because Cooper was a first round talent. Now, that undrafted kid from Georgia Tech who Griff signed has a contract that runs through 24/25 and Cooper is pounding the pavement.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pelafanatic

Would you bet on Kira or Jose having a longer career?

---

I think its 6 of one, half dozen of the other. Minimal difference on floor, median, and ceiling. I think there is a pretty low chance that either ever really is above a replacement level player. It would be like asking - 'Who had a better career, Dan Dickau or Tyus Edney? To which, I would answer "I dont care"

Tyus Edney. Names don’t often leave me stumped. But that one is totally Greek to me.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I think its 6 of one, half dozen of the other. Minimal difference on floor, median, and ceiling. I think there is a pretty low chance that either ever really is above a replacement level player. It would be like asking - 'Who had a better career, Dan Dickau or Tyus Edney? To which, I would answer "I dont care"

---

That is sad considering one was a lottery pick and the other an undrafted free agent.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Eman5805

Tyus Edney. Names don?t often leave me stumped. But that one is totally Greek to me.

---

Edney started out well. Started a bunch of games alongside Richmond as a rookie iirc.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

That is sad considering one was a lottery pick and the other an undrafted free agent.

---

Tons of lottery picks become nothing. Especially for the teams who drafted them. But all of the fans of every lottery pick team this year think they got a future building block in the lottery

He's March Madness famous.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I think its 6 of one, half dozen of the other. Minimal difference on floor, median, and ceiling. I think there is a pretty low chance that either ever really is above a replacement level player. It would be like asking - 'Who had a better career, Dan Dickau or Tyus Edney? To which, I would answer "I dont care"

---

Hey!

Hey!!!

Don't you put them bad words on Dan Dickau. Too far!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Tons of lottery picks become nothing. Especially for the teams who drafted them. But all of the fans of every lottery pick team this year think they got a future building block in the lottery

---

I realize that, but it does not make it better. Kira has not even played 80 games in the NBA yet.

Its all a crapshoot. The #1 pick usually hits. Outside of that, almost every other pick, type of player, etc fails more than they succeed. Why you wanna have the most lotto tickets and also flexibility in your roster to take chances. Warriors passed on Draymond twice, but they got him because they had a 3rd lotto ticket that year. They also had the roster spots to give all those guys a chance. You are going to fail a ton in this business. Similar to a baseball player - where if you only fail 70% of the time, you are a massive success.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Its all a crapshoot. The #1 pick usually hits. Outside of that, almost every other pick, type of player, etc fails more than they succeed. Why you wanna have the most lotto tickets and also flexibility in your roster to take chances. Warriors passed on Draymond twice, but they got him because they had a 3rd lotto ticket that year. They also had the roster spots to give all those guys a chance. You are going to fail a ton in this business. Similar to a baseball player - where if you only fail 70% of the time, you are a massive success.

---

Makes it all the more amazing that the Pelicans may have hit 3 times last season in 2 swings.

I am so curious to see what comes of these 4 players (the 3 last year plus Daniels)

I think I would bet on one above average starter, two solid starters and one fringe rotation guy as the outcome but if any become an All Star or 3 become above avg starters, etc, you are talking a legit contender. And if one more Lakers pick lands in the top 10, you really have assets to land a needle moving player via trade

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I am so curious to see what comes of these 4 players (the 3 last year plus Daniels)

I think I would bet on one above average starter, two solid starters and one fringe rotation guy as the outcome but if any become an All Star or 3 become above avg starters, etc, you are talking a legit contender. And if one more Lakers pick lands in the top 10, you really have assets to land a needle moving player via trade

---

I expect Herb to be a WELL ABOVE average starter. Should be able to tell for sure by how he developes offensively by the end of this coming season. May sound crazy...but I could even see see him becoming the 2nd best player on the Pels in the near future. Not sure Trey can become much more than just a shooter, but a very good one...and you never know about other aspects of his game. Not very high on Jose...and DD obviously has a great ceiling. Should be a very interesting season coming up.

New Rule:
Anybody who has more than 10k post on a message board, can't use the term "fans" as if they're talking about those other people over there without including themselves in that group they're speaking down to.

If you're on Pelicansreport.com everyday... that's pretty fanatical behavior.

Would anyone be interested in Jalen Brown? Of course as the 3rd team but think he could be an awesome asset.

https://i.ibb.co/k0CPTSc/fanspo-nba-...9-01-51-PM.png

Giving up 4 1’s I’d like to keep Kira and Murphy. Kira, Daniels, Murphy, Herb, and Nash is an awesome bench.