NBA DRAFT 2020 DISCUSSION

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Nope

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Don’t just say nope, say who you think is.

Also it’s no a definitive answer which is why I said IMO.

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Originally Posted by HornetGuru

Don’t just say nope, say who you think is.

Also it’s no a definitive answer which is why I said IMO.

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I mean, I've been quite clear that I think the best shooter in the draft is Desmond Bane. Really high efficiency on a truly enormous sample size across multiple years in college. Can shoot off movement, coming off screens, off the pure catch and shoot. Has shown pull-up ability without any major drop off in the efficiency. Shoots from NBA range regularly, has a very consistent form, doesn't seem to be bothered by contests very much.

Just clearly a very very higher level shooting prospect.

Looking forward to, as the people who haven't really paid attention to the draft now start to drift towards ''draft season'', the rebirth of Obi Toppin discourse :hihi:

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Looking forward to, as the people who haven't really paid attention to the draft now start to drift towards ''draft season'', the rebirth of Obi Toppin discourse :hihi:

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Like Mac says, at 13 we need a guy elite at just one skill

Not 5s across the board

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Originally Posted by AusPel

Like Mac says, at 13 we need a guy elite at just one skill

Not 5s across the board

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Which is fine, if you have an argument for drafting Toppin, then you're allowed to make that argument.

What I'm not looking forward to is the return of people who insist that he's this top tier dominant elite tier prospect when he's actually massively flawed in a bunch of very important areas.

Kind of like how all the pre-season ''James Wiseman is David Robinson'' takes came out, and were all immediately awful because a lot of people have no idea what they're talking about.

That said, as I said talking to Mac the other day, the ''get one elite skill, don't care about the auxiliaries'' only works if the other guy with better auxiliaries doesn't also have an elite skill.

If you're being asked to choose between a player who is a 9/10 in one category, and a 3/10 at everything else, and a player who is a 9/10 in one category as well but a 6/10 in everything else, and you choose the former because ''we don't need someone who has 5s across the board'' then you're kind of missing the forest for the trees.

Just to give an example of what I mean by mainstream draft stuff often being just complete nonsense, let's take a look at the newest Sports Illustrated Mock from literally today. The link is here: https://www.si.com/nba/2020/10/14/nb...ns-post-finals

Obviously not going to go over every single pick, but just a few notable cases where what they say is particularly bad or strange.

#2: James Wiseman: Most of what they say is reasonable, even if I think the 2nd pick is way too high, but this stands out to me as just being sort of weird. They say ''he's more of a traditional center, but he's also not a stiff'': what do they mean by ''a stiff''? Of course, Wiseman is very mobile in a straight line but he has dreadful footwork, poor hip mobility, weirdly bad lateral quickness for someone with his frame, and tends to rest a lot of his weight too far back in defensive positions outside of the paint.

#6: Tyrese Haliburton: This is just a really really bad pick, and the logic they use to justify it is bad as well. ''Haliburton is seen as one of the safest bets in the draft to return value, with the type of preternatural feel and passing ability that should keep him in the NBA for a long time'' is the description they give, and I think it's wrong at basically every level. Not only is Haliburton far from a safe bet given his very mediocre handle, his lack of elite quickness, his poor finishing, etc, but the ability to leverage passing ability at the NBA level requires the ability to pressure a defense which I doubt Haliburton will be able to do consistently.

#10: Precious Achiuwa: This is just a wild overdraft. Precious is a late first rounder, not a top ten pick. Absurd over-evaluation.

#13: Aaron Nesmith: ''it’s fairly clear that Nesmith is the best pure shooter in the draft, with that potentially special skill to sell and a somewhat underrated floor game'' Nope. Just nope. It's not at all clear that Nesmith is the best pure shooter in the draft, as I've discussed over and over, and his floor game is not ''somewhat underrated'' it's just really bad. Honestly strikes me as a very surface level evaluation without much nuance.

#22: Jaden McDaniels: Another example of physical profile overshadowing ability, McDaniels is just not very good at basketball. They actually note this in the article, saying that 'frankly, he was just not very good in college'' but they then turn around and lay the blame for that on his team, before saying ''McDaniels can handle, pass, and shoot'': there's serious doubt about whether he can do any of those things at the kind of level that will be required to make him a passable NBA player. This is a guy who averaged a higher TOV% than AST%, shot 34% from 3 and only about 75% from the FT line, and showed no real in-between game that would be likely to amplify your shooting expectations. Where the perception of him as some 3-core-skill player in disguise came from is beyond me.


Suffice it to say, drafting Vernon Carey, Isaiah Stewart, and Jalen Smith back to back to back all in the first round while Xavier Tillman is still on the board is just laughable valuation, from my perspective.

They also have Grant Riller going in the second round, which is silly to me: if he goes #41 like they suggest, he's going to be an absolute steal. Paul Reed at #50 is absurd value, he could easily go as a first rounder even if not lottery. When Desmond Bane comes up, it's at #30 and they suggest that his short wingspan could limit his upside defensively (fair) but also critique his ability as a handler and passer, which is strange given that they put players with much worse handling and passing higher up and praised them as having ''underrated'' abilities. They do not even mention Bane's shooting which is a hideous oversight.

Mainstream draft analysis remains terrible.

So...do you know how people make these mocks? They arent going through tape and making a ton of evaluations and then putting out a mock draft. They are talking to low level scouts and execs in organizations who spout out generic takes and theories to them and then they write articles for the very simple, casual fan.

There are only a handful that really take the NBA draft seriously and do their own scouting and write in depth for the hardcore fan.

What you need to remember is about 99.8% of people who buy tickets, watch basketball, etc are casuals. So content will always be built around them. Written for them.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

So...do you know how people make these mocks? They arent going through tape and making a ton of evaluations and then putting out a mock draft. They are talking to low level scouts and execs in organizations who spout out generic takes and theories to them and then they write articles for the very simple, casual fan.

There are only a handful that really take the NBA draft seriously and do their own scouting and write in depth for the hardcore fan.

What you need to remember is about 99.8% of people who buy tickets, watch basketball, etc are casuals. So content will always be built around them. Written for them.

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I am aware. That doesn't mean it isn't annoying to spend a whole year watching tons of tape and reading deep dive analyses only for draft season to come around and get tons of people who watched a 5 minute highlight video or read a dodgy mass media mock draft deciding that James Wiseman is actually David Robinson and Obi Toppin is Shaq.

Happens all the time. Is annoying every time. I understand it's the job of the people who put these mass media mocks together to do as you've described, largely to drive clicks and feed the casual highlight-fan crowd. It's just dumb, is all.

So why don't you apply to these sites. Put together some articles, some evaluations, and then send them in?

Surely that has more of a chance of quelling your frustration than venting to the 20-30 people who frequent this board

Be the change you want to see in the world!!!

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

So why don't you apply to these sites. Put together some articles, some evaluations, and then send them in?

Surely that has more of a chance of quelling your frustration than venting to the 20-30 people who frequent this board

Be the change you want to see in the world!!!

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-_-

No thank you.

Updated look at James Wiseman with trainer David Alexander pic.twitter.com/aKbTN5cbLD

— Jonathan Wasserman (@NBADraftWass) October 15, 2020

Wiseman informing us all that he skips leg day

I'm really looking forward to this draft. I think it's going to be wildly different from what we're seeing in mocks.

At 13 I'm looking at guys like Vassell, Tyrese Maxey, Kira Lewis. Jalen Smith, Aaron Nesmith, Precious Achiuwa, Pat Williams, and Cole Anthony a little further down from that, but Vassell, Maxey, and Lewis are my top 3.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Updated look at James Wiseman with trainer David Alexander pic.twitter.com/aKbTN5cbLD

— Jonathan Wasserman (@NBADraftWass) October 15, 2020

Wiseman informing us all that he skips leg day

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I was thinking the same thing...ha!

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Updated look at James Wiseman with trainer David Alexander pic.twitter.com/aKbTN5cbLD

— Jonathan Wasserman (@NBADraftWass) October 15, 2020

Wiseman informing us all that he skips leg day

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If GS will trade us #2 for Holiday and and our #1 I would do it.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

So why don't you apply to these sites. Put together some articles, some evaluations, and then send them in?

Surely that has more of a chance of quelling your frustration than venting to the 20-30 people who frequent this board

Be the change you want to see in the world!!!

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I agree with you here! Preach!

From @Mike_Schmitz and I: New NBA draft intel: Workout restrictions lifted, trade talk, sleepers and perfect fits https://t.co/FegFdlmeD8

— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) October 16, 2020

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Originally Posted by AD23forMVP

I'm really looking forward to this draft. I think it's going to be wildly different from what we're seeing in mocks.

At 13 I'm looking at guys like Vassell, Tyrese Maxey, Kira Lewis. Jalen Smith, Aaron Nesmith, Precious Achiuwa, Pat Williams, and Cole Anthony a little further down from that, but Vassell, Maxey, and Lewis are my top 3.

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I'm actually *Very slightly* concerned about Vassell.

Not extremely but his camp posted a video of him the other day, and he's been working with a trainer over the summer and his shot form seems to have changed a bit. It could just be the problem of empty gym shooting, where guys are less urgent and slower on their release, this happens sometimes (I've seen videos of great shooters like Curry just messing around and sometimes their form changes then too) but if they've actually made significant changes to his release that's no fun at all. Not even a little bit.

Obviously that will show up in workouts for various teams: if he suddenly can't hit the side of a barn, or his release is legitimately much slower now, they'll pick up on that.

Either way his playmaking flashes still exist and he's still the best team defender in the entire draft, so he'd still be worth drafting. But if his shot has legitimately taken a hit that would drop him at least 5 spots on my board.

This could just mean nothing, of course, and his shot hasn't really changed. Fully aware of that. I'm not in panic mode: there's just a bit of concern.

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Originally Posted by Butters

I was thinking the same thing...ha!

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Absolutely: when you show really inconsistent post defense and get moved by everyone who tries to go against you in the paint, the number one thing you need to do is ignore working out your lower body.

Lower body strength for a big: who needs it?!

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Wiseman informing us all that he skips leg day

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I literally busted out laughing when I read this and my wife is looking at me like I have lost my mind. :hihi: How does a guy spend that much time training and not work on his spindly legs?

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Originally Posted by Mount Zion

I literally busted out laughing when I read this and my wife is looking at me like I have lost my mind. :hihi: How does a guy spend that much time training and not work on his spindly legs?

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People skip leg day because it's difficult and you can't get instagram hype likes from flexing your calves in the mirror like you can with biceps.

Shame that lower body strength ends up being quite important in the NBA.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I'm actually *Very slightly* concerned about Vassell.

Not extremely but his camp posted a video of him the other day, and he's been working with a trainer over the summer and his shot form seems to have changed a bit. It could just be the problem of empty gym shooting, where guys are less urgent and slower on their release, this happens sometimes (I've seen videos of great shooters like Curry just messing around and sometimes their form changes then too) but if they've actually made significant changes to his release that's no fun at all. Not even a little bit.

Obviously that will show up in workouts for various teams: if he suddenly can't hit the side of a barn, or his release is legitimately much slower now, they'll pick up on that.

Either way his playmaking flashes still exist and he's still the best team defender in the entire draft, so he'd still be worth drafting. But if his shot has legitimately taken a hit that would drop him at least 5 spots on my board.

This could just mean nothing, of course, and his shot hasn't really changed. Fully aware of that. I'm not in panic mode: there's just a bit of concern.

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Serious question. Why the hell does players allow themselves to take bad advice from trainers who make them have shooting forms like MKG? And even if they think it's correct, you are telling me know one in the gym is saying "bro wtf is up with your form?"

Like is that video proof of yes men in the flesh? I just don't understand this. Vessel draft stock is falling and no one, his dad, mom, cousin, brother, etc was like bro why are you shooting funny? Smh

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

Serious question. Why the hell does players allow themselves to take bad advice from trainers who make them have shooting forms like MKG? And even if they think it's correct, you are telling me know one in the gym is saying "bro wtf is up with your form?"

Like is that video proof of yes men in the flesh? I just don't understand this. Vessel draft stock is falling and no one, his dad, mom, cousin, brother, etc was like bro why are you shooting funny? Smh

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It's hard to say, honestly. I've never been in the room with one of these guys so I don't really know what their rhetoric or their pitch looks like, and without knowing that it's difficult to know exactly how they win someone over.

Part of me wants to say that it's a misunderstanding in the training process mixed with hype. Say that you're a good prospect looking to take that next leap, so you search for someone to work with to polish up your game. Your other friends, who are also basketball players, point you towards this one guy, who seems to have good testimonials and you look at their instagram or whatever and it seems to be legit: it's hard to tell from the promo packages anyway because 90% of trainers shoot and edit their clips the same way, and of course they don't include the failures in the highlight reel. Maybe you hit them up, talk for a bit, and it all seems in line. At this point, nothing has happened to make you think this person is awful.

Then you go in. They say they just want to make a tweak to your form for whatever reason: maybe better elevation or a nicer arc, or just to eliminate the dip or whatever it is. You're listening to them because they appear to be a professional, but they don't take into account the fact that a shooting form isn't a series of separate parts - the entire thing flows as one unit, and changing one thing often changes the rest. You make that small tweak and suddenly your form is whacked, because the trainer hasn't accounted for that. Maybe you even panic a bit, but they'll tell you exactly what we all know to be true: sometimes things get a little worse while you're adjusting, but it'll be fine.

Six months later, you can't shoot.

Now, obviously, that's just my hypothetical. But it's the sort of scenario I can imagine happening. I would hope that high end prospects like Vassell have enough people around them to seek out reputable trainers and verify methods, and sort the wheat from the chaff, but who knows? Wouldn't be the first time.

And hey, like I said, maybe this isn't actually an issue and it was just a bad training clip: those exist too. Might be nothing. I've marked it on my list of things to be aware of but I'm not worrying about it too much. The teams will get a chance to see in workouts if it's a real issue or not.

Allez on commence, le 2vs2 ? commenc? comme ?a ... �� @rudygobert27 @viinze_17P #WeAreJSF pic.twitter.com/cRMaQzLKRT

— Nanterre 92 (@Nanterre92) October 17, 2020

This is Victor Wembanyama, currently sixteen years old, at the height of 7'2, shooting the mid-range pullup over Rudy Gobert.

This kid, health permitting (he's so tall and so skinny) is going to be incredible in a few years.

I think a lot of non-professional scouts fall into the trap of having what I'd call "short-termitis" for prospects they already don't like, and "long-termitis" for the ones they do.

Be consistent. This is all about what they project to be 3 - 5 years removed from college/overseas. Both physically and skill wise. Not copy/paste where they are now.

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Originally Posted by luckyman

I think a lot of non-professional scouts fall into the trap of having what I'd call "short-termitis" for prospects they already don't like, and "long-termitis" for the ones they do.

Be consistent. This is all about what they project to be 3 - 5 years removed from college/overseas. Both physically and skill wise. Not copy/paste where they are now.

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I think that a lot of scouts, professional and non-professional, consistently show a bunch of really dodgy signs. The best guys aren't flawless, but they're usually aware of the flaws they tend to make and often will be upfront about them.

Aside from the issue you describe (which is basically just a mix between moving the goal posts and special pleading), these are some pretty common ones:

- Aestheticism: A lot of people, whether scouts or just people interested, tend to make the mistake of confusing their aesthetic preference for efficacy. It's fairly common to see people love mind-blowing handles, even if they don't produce much of an impact on the defender, or for people to love super deep shooting prospects even if they're not that good at it: they just enjoy the visual of people taking that shot.

- Highlight Clip Syndrome: For me, it usually takes a good 5 games to get what I call a ''decent'' grasp of a prospect, and I usually try to wait until 8 or 9 before making strong judgements. Some people watch a 12 minute highlight clip on YouTube and consider themselves an expert: obviously this is more of a casual fan issue than a professional scout one.

- Stubbornness: A lot of people come to views early in the draft process, or even pre-draft sometimes, and just refuse to change their mind as evidence mounts up. It's healthy and important to accept new information and change your mind. For example, early in the season I had Nico Mannion in the teens or even late lottery for a variety of reasons, but as the season wore on it became clear that his finishing problems were worse than I had thought and his shot didn't quite show up off the dribble how I liked. So I've dropped him into the mid 20s. Gotta be willing to change your mind.

- Body Shape Judgments: So many people look at a player who looks good and make judgements from there, ignoring the game. You see people saying ''ah but he's 6'8, 220lbs, and a ball handler!'' and it's like yeah but is he any good at that ball handling or is he just on a team that's letting him do whatever?

- Team considerations: Some teams in college make players look better at some things than they are, and other teams make them look worse. Kentucky tends to suppress almost everyone truly great, whereas FSU tends to make people look like better defenders than they are. Think: are you evaluating a prospect's abilities, or are you evaluating the prospect's individual performance within this singular team context?

These are just some examples, there are more.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

2023
- Victor Wembanyama
- Emoni Bates
- Yannick Nsoza
- Amari Bailey
- Jalen Duren

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Just a little detail on Yannick Nzosa, since he's currently playing in the ACB (Oh hey that's the league Doncic played in pre-NBA, neat) at the age of 16.

He's a Centre. He's 16, he currently weighs 180lbs, ish, at 7'0 tall.

In 4 games so far, he's averaging 14.3pts, 6.2rbds, 1.8asts per 36. 3.3 steals and 4.9 blocks per 36.

Currently has a block percentage of 15.9% and a steal percentage of 5.2%. His TS% is 93.7.

16 years old, 180lbs, playing centre against grown men in the same league Doncic came out of. Promising!

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

So, Bane is unquestionably the better player and the lone reason Nesmith will be taken higher is because of the "hype"

Well, yeah, when you set up the framework like this, then of course you take the better player at the lower pick. Impossible to debate when thats the setup

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I just cant get over Bane's wingspan... or lack thereof. He's like tyrannosaurus rex

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Originally Posted by fullcourtpress

I just cant get over Bane's wingspan... or lack thereof. He's like tyrannosaurus rex

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Other NBA players with negative wingspans:

- Yao Ming
- JJ Redick
- Kelly Olynyk
- Tyler Herro

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Other NBA players with negative wingspans:

- Yao Ming
- JJ Redick
- Kelly Olynyk
- Tyler Herro

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That's really just make it more valid to not waste a pick on him. On top of that, Bane is athleticism makes him borderline not a 1st round value for me. If we are at 13th-18th and the two prospects that we got is Nesmith and Bane. Nesmith every single day of the week. Your dislike for Nesmith is becoming irrational like he called your mother ugly or something.

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Originally Posted by Taker597

That's really just make it more valid to not waste a pick on him. On top of that, Bane is athleticism makes him borderline not a 1st round value for me. If we are at 13th-18th and the two prospects that we got is Nesmith and Bane. Nesmith every single day of the week. Your dislike for Nesmith is becoming irrational like he called your mother ugly or something.

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It's not a huge dislike lol, I just think he's not worthy of the hype. If it was Josh Green that the board was constantly drooling over instead of Nesmith, If be talking about him instead.

In any case, I'm not really sure how that list of good-to-very-good NBA players is a reason not to draft someone. There are other players with negative wingspans (some of whom were/are not good, sorry Svi Mikhailyuk) but the point of that list is that it shows that having a negative windspan is not, in itself, a deal breaker.

For example, I would much rather draft someone with a negative wingspan but who knew what they were doing over an albatross who doesn't understand the game whatsoever. Hassan Whiteside has a wingspan that can blot out the sun and he's a liability anyway because he's a low effort, low IQ player. By comparison, someone like Jimmy Butler has a wingspan less than 0.5 inches larger than his height but is a tenacious defender because of his high awareness and effort.

My personal tiers, based on what I would give up/use on them:

Tier 1: Would give up 13 and two future protected 1sts

K. Hayes, Okongwu, and Avdija

Tier 2: 13 and a ton of 2nds or a future protected 1st

Nobody

Tier 3: Would use 13, but they wont be there

Haliburton, Vassell, Wiseman, Edwards

Tier 4:Would use 13 to draft

Patrick Williams, Jalen Smith, Kira Lewis, Aaron Nesmith, Poku, RJ Hampton

Tier 5: Would be interested in using late teens/20s pick if we move back or move up from 2nd round, add a pick in trade, etc

Tyrell Terry, Leandro Bolmoro, Paul Reed, Tyrese Maxey, Josh Green, Zeke Nnaji

Tier 6 - 2nd Round Targets to make contributions in next year or two

Xavier Tillman, Payton Pritchard, Grant Riller, Devot Dotson, Malachi Flynn, Tyler Bey, Mamadi Diakite

Tier 7 - 2nd round picks to stash and maybe get something out of in a few years. Flyers.

Jahmi'us Ramsey, Yam Madar, Kenyon Martin, Jr. Paul Eboua, Josh Hall, Lamine Diane

There is nobody in this draft that I would give up 3 firsts for.

Interested in your take on Ball, MM. You didn't list him there, so I'm assuming you don't value him particularly highly.

Also, what's your view on Haliburton's probably role in the NBA?

Big support for listing Lamine Diane, who is extremely fun.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

There is nobody in this draft that I would give up 3 firsts for.

Interested in your take on Ball, MM. You didn't list him there, so I'm assuming you don't value him particularly highly.

Also, what's your view on Haliburton's probably role in the NBA?

Big support for listing Lamine Diane, who is extremely fun.

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I wouldnt take Ball at 13. I think he eventually has a decent career, but I think his first team will be massively, massively disappointed.

Skill wise - awesome at some things. But I want my distributors to be hard workers, accountable, willing to sacrifice, dive on the floor, etc. LaMelo is not that. I wouldnt touch him. But I'd take a look when he is 25 or 26 after he has bounced around and been humbled.

Haliburton is a guy who -- if he goes to the right place, he has a Mike Conley like career. Wrong place and he tries to do too much and is inefficient. And I think a team with Zion and Ingram is the right place. I think he would fit awesome with them long term. He wouldnt have to be the primary creator all the time, would have great finishers who run the court, and likely good spacers to hit when he gets teams to collapse.

As for "three first rounders" -- I think if they are all lotto protected or even top 10 protected or even picks in this draft (say we trade Jrue and get 19 in the deal and so its 13, 19, and a future lotto protected 1st)..... those picks are worth giving up if you know a guy can be a core piece with Ingram and Zion. And I believe in those 3 guys and love their fit with Ingram and Zion.

The whole point of getting picks in trades was to have the ability to trade a bunch of them for a core piece. And I believe those 3 guys would be. And where the Pelicans are picking this year and will be picking in future years -- history says you have a very small chance of landing a long term core piece. When you do, yes its awesome and catapaults your franchise forward. But for every Giannis and Bam, there are 12-15 guys who really dont do anything for the team who took them in the 11-30 range

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I wouldnt take Ball at 13. I think he eventually has a decent career, but I think his first team will be massively, massively disappointed.

Skill wise - awesome at some things. But I want my distributors to be hard workers, accountable, willing to sacrifice, dive on the floor, etc. LaMelo is not that. I wouldnt touch him. But I'd take a look when he is 25 or 26 after he has bounced around and been humbled.

Haliburton is a guy who -- if he goes to the right place, he has a Mike Conley like career. Wrong place and he tries to do too much and is inefficient. And I think a team with Zion and Ingram is the right place. I think he would fit awesome with them long term. He wouldnt have to be the primary creator all the time, would have great finishers who run the court, and likely good spacers to hit when he gets teams to collapse.

As for "three first rounders" -- I think if they are all lotto protected or even top 10 protected or even picks in this draft (say we trade Jrue and get 19 in the deal and so its 13, 19, and a future lotto protected 1st)..... those picks are worth giving up if you know a guy can be a core piece with Ingram and Zion. And I believe in those 3 guys and love their fit with Ingram and Zion.

The whole point of getting picks in trades was to have the ability to trade a bunch of them for a core piece. And I believe those 3 guys would be. And where the Pelicans are picking this year and will be picking in future years -- history says you have a very small chance of landing a long term core piece. When you do, yes its awesome and catapaults your franchise forward. But for every Giannis and Bam, there are 12-15 guys who really dont do anything for the team who took them in the 11-30 range

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Yeah I'm not against trading 3 firsts just flat out and overall in any case. There are plenty of moves I would make where 3 picks got moved around: they just wouldn't be for anyone in this class.

I'm extremely sceptical of Haliburton's potential as a primary at the NBA level in any practical sense. He has more than a little of the Lonzo Ball problems around him: sub-par handle, unimpressive finisher, very little wiggle off the dribble, can't seem to really beat anyone. He's a better shooting projection, but still.

I largely agree about LaMelo. He's got some outstanding, outlier skills but I think he's far worse at the bad things than many commentators are willing to talk about.

I think Haliburton could be like Brogdon - who cant blow by people. Isnt a pure one or a pure two. Not the best handle in the world. But he finds ways to score. He gets his teammates good shots. Can play on ball, has to be respected off ball.

And Brogdon's efficiency is tied to who is on the court with him. When he has other guys who can bend and break the D and/or guys who demand multiple defenders when they roll, he is insanely efficient. When Indy got hurt and he had to do a lot more heavy lifting, he was way less efficient. I think Haliburton is very similar. People always bring up Lonzo because of height, some stat similarities, etc. I see more Brogdon.

Brogdon was never insanely efficient even in Milwaukee, outside of his final season there. The first two were just okay, and then of course this year for various reasons he was downright poor overall. Even his at-rim finishing plummeted in efficacy, although as you say, there are reasons for that beyond just his own skillset.

I suppose my view of a Haliburton draft would depend on who else was still on the board. I don't view him highly as a primary and I don't think he has much in the way of boom upside potential, so if there was someone there still that I did value more highly in either of those ways, I would rather take them. Not a horrible prospect by any means but 13 seems a bit of a reach, for me.

Role players, even the top quasi all star ones, are their environment IMO. I think very few NBA players are good regardless, bad regardless. Very few are unable to transcend several different kinds of roles. I dont think thats a knock on Haliburton, or most guys for that matter. Draymond Green plays with great players and he is an All Star who gets a max contract or close. On a bad team, he was a guy who wouldnt be worth 8 mil a year

Almost every guy in this draft will be dependent on the situation they end up in. If I were a Pistons fan, I wouldnt want Haliburton. As a Pels fan, I would happily take him

I think that the right team for Haliburton already has a reliable primary initiator on it. The Pelicans do not have that right now.

It's trivially true that roleplayers are often highly dependent on their circumstances, yes.

I am building a team with the idea of who 2024-2029 Ingram and Zion will be. And if they arent creating a high percentage of the offense by then, none of this matters anyway.

You dont draft 19 year olds to solve current problems. You project what you will need (and not need as much) in 3 or 4 years and draft the guys who help that. I want Ingram to be better shooting Jimmy Butler (with regard to his usage, his amount of time with the ball and without it). I want Zion to be Giannis-like or at the very least Blake Griffin when CP3 was off the court/gone. If you had those two guys, you wouldnt want a primary creator. You would want combo guards, shooters, etc.

You have to project forward with Zion and Ingram when making this pick. Not solve current problems, because truth is that this guy will barely play at all this year

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I am building a team with the idea of who 2024-2029 Ingram and Zion will be. And if they arent creating a high percentage of the offense by then, none of this matters anyway.

You dont draft 19 year olds to solve current problems. You project what you will need (and not need as much) in 3 or 4 years and draft the guys who help that. I want Ingram to be better shooting Jimmy Butler (with regard to his usage, his amount of time with the ball and without it). I want Zion to be Giannis-like or at the very least Blake Griffin when CP3 was off the court/gone. If you had those two guys, you wouldnt want a primary creator. You would want combo guards, shooters, etc.

You have to project forward with Zion and Ingram when making this pick. Not solve current problems, because truth is that this guy will barely play at all this year

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I'm not convinced Ingram is still on this team in 4+ years time. As far as I'm concerned, we are still in acquire talent mode, not ''start tailoring the roster'' mode. I project forward with Zion in mind, since he's the guy I'm absolutely convinced will still be here in 5, 6 years. Other than that, my projections are very fluid, and in circumstance I want to acquire the guys who I think are likely to either have the most value later down the road for trade purposes, or who are most likely to pan out and be the best players.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Just a little detail on Yannick Nzosa, since he's currently playing in the ACB (Oh hey that's the league Doncic played in pre-NBA, neat) at the age of 16.

He's a Centre. He's 16, he currently weighs 180lbs, ish, at 7'0 tall.

In 4 games so far, he's averaging 14.3pts, 6.2rbds, 1.8asts per 36. 3.3 steals and 4.9 blocks per 36.

Currently has a block percentage of 15.9% and a steal percentage of 5.2%. His TS% is 93.7.

16 years old, 180lbs, playing centre against grown men in the same league Doncic came out of. Promising!

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THIS should be right around the time we can start "winning" the AD trade. Especially if Bron or AD pick up an injury or three in 2022. ;)

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Originally Posted by msusousaphone

THIS should be right around the time we can start "winning" the AD trade. Especially if Bron or AD pick up an injury or three in 2022. ;)

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Yeah, there's a ton of very very high level prospects coming up over the next 3 years or so, Nzosa being one of them. Wembanyama is the best of them probably, but he's been getting a lot of hype over the last week, so he won't be a ''best kept secret'' for long lol

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I'm not convinced Ingram is still on this team in 4+ years time. As far as I'm concerned, we are still in acquire talent mode, not ''start tailoring the roster'' mode. I project forward with Zion in mind, since he's the guy I'm absolutely convinced will still be here in 5, 6 years. Other than that, my projections are very fluid, and in circumstance I want to acquire the guys who I think are likely to either have the most value later down the road for trade purposes, or who are most likely to pan out and be the best players.

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It's tough to project any player 4 years from now, but why specifically BI? He is getting ready to sign a max contract, so it would appear he is a building block for this team.

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

It's tough to project any player 4 years from now, but why specifically BI? He is getting ready to sign a max contract, so it would appear he is a building block for this team.

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I've seen Shamit argue before that Ingram feels like a Derozan type player, where he's very good but not quite on the level required to really be part of that championship core with his playstyle and usage, and ends up being used in a trade to acquire the guy who is.

Obviously that could be wrong, which is why I didn't say that I *am* convinced that he will *not* be here, just that I'm not convinced entirely that he will be.

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

It's tough to project any player 4 years from now, but why specifically BI? He is getting ready to sign a max contract, so it would appear he is a building block for this team.

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BI could win this franchise 2 straight titles, and you know who would be like ..."we should trade him now he will never win a 3rd. And his at -the-rim % fell last year."

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I've seen Shamit argue before that Ingram feels like a Derozan type player, where he's very good but not quite on the level required to really be part of that championship core with his playstyle and usage, and ends up being used in a trade to acquire the guy who is.

Obviously that could be wrong, which is why I didn't say that I *am* convinced that he will *not* be here, just that I'm not convinced entirely that he will be.

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Its funny how our current evaluations are often partly clouded by our past ones. Shamit often admits his tendency to do this with Ingram. We are all guilty of it. I will admit I still don't see Luka as the future of the league, largely because of my initial evaluation.

But regardless of our opinions, Griff is head over heels for Ingram. He believes he is as much of a core pieceas Zion and can lead the league in scoring one day. And if you listen to SVG on Lowes pod, he feels pretty similar.

Those two are the core and SVG will build the offense around them and they will be asked to create more and more each year

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Originally Posted by luckyman

BI could win this franchise 2 straight titles, and you know who would be like ..."we should trade him now he will never win a 3rd. And his at -the-rim % fell last year."

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We were having a normal conversation where normal questions were being asked and normal explanations were being given. No need to come in being all silly about it.

Pelicanidae, have you posted your big board for the 13 pick range for the Pelicans? If not, you mind sharing?

Here is mine:

1. Patrick Williams
2. Poku
3. Tyrell Terry
4. Kira Lewis
5. Aaron Nesmith
6. Tyrese Maxley
7. Grant Riller
8. Precious
9. Sadiq Bey
10. Josh Green

I think I posted a bunch of names I'd be okay with around that spot a while ago but it's probably time for an update. I'll do it when I get to a computer rather than a phone, since I tend to be very wordy lol