Ranking the West, as of today

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

Pels went 33-30 after the 3-16 start. A majority of those games you did not have BI and Willie was incorporating his system, so I believe you can write those off. Then acquired CJ and Nance while diminishing Temple minutes. Now you add in Zion, Daniels, an extra year of development for Trey, Herb, and Jose. Would be extremely disappointing if we finished lower than 8th

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This is how we see things from the fan perspective, always writing off outlier bads while lifting up the good and assuming that will be the baseline to grow from. Meanwhile, give none of that same grace to the opponents. I am sure every fan base, every single one, can tell you a story about how their final record wasn't indicative of who they really were, but instead X stretch was who they actually were and if you take that plus add the growth of Y and Z players, plus the addition of A player, and another year of continuity, then voila - they will be much better!

We always leave out the parts that were outliers in the other direction that might not allow for the same duplicate success in that stretch. All that goes to say that yes, you can make a case that the Pelicans were akin to a 50 win team at the end of the season when they had all their guys locked in, and now you add Zion and Daniels to that. But that is still projection, not objective reality. Personally, I like the way the team is built, and for the first time maybe ever, will be hammering the over this year. But you all should prepare yourself for all these national folks that you think are coming around and talking all good about the Pels lately, to predict them to do worse than what you guys are. And not because they are dumb or haters or whatever, but because they just have never actually shown these things we are projecting, while other teams have

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Stuck to your guns as in, you didn't read everyone else's takes and modify what you thought, you just went with what you thought.

As to what those particular guns would be, I mean things like ranking the Clippers 1st when most other people have them ranked no higher than 3rd, placing the Pelicans out of the playoffs entirely and in a play-in situation, and listing the Lakers are a non-play-in-playoff spot. Those are all slightly unusual takes, imo, and despite them being in the minority in the thread you stuck with them anyway. Even if I think they're bad takes, I appreciate that you went for it.

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Ok I was genuinely curious what you meant by that statement. I think it's pretty obvious at this point that I stick to my guns for better or worse.

1. Grizzlies
2. Warriors
3. Clippers
4. Nuggets
5. Mavericks
6. Suns
7. Pelicans
8. Wolves
9. Lakers
10. Blazers
11. Lakers
12. Kings
13. Spurs
14. Rockets
15. Thunder

Im not making a case for a 50 win team. Even with the addition of CJ, this is a fairly young team; however, the Clippers had the 8th best record in the west last season at 42-40. The Wolves 7th at 46-36. Even conservatively, I see us one or two games above .500. And that’s with no growth from the young guys and injuries to the big 3 baked in

95% of people will simply copy/paste whatever occurred the previous season into the next. Whether they are fans or not.

The only exceptions are some large market teams with proven players, or if they make big moves in free agency. Which is why so many still had the Lakers as a title contender last year.

Rarely does anybody take the chance, analyze on a clean slate, and predict a big leap for a small market team. Not safe enough and too risky. They'll keep those teams 6 - 10 and be done with it.

Btw free agency starts thursday and there is no thread yet?

Very interested to see what Memphis does. They've got a few decisions to make.

Should be a top 4 team only team in the west that should concern us is golden state until we can shoot threes consistently or defend them , mavs are not getting better neither is Denver same team basically un athletic star with subpar surrounding players until Murray and porter is back . Clipper stars injury history is worst then zions . Suns will just slowly descend unless bridges takes a step along with ayton being more aggressive,


The future is teams that never won anything on the west
Grizzlies with ja and co
Timberwolves with edwards and towns (plays too soft too often )
Us with Brandon ,Zion , and co

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

Im not making a case for a 50 win team. Even with the addition of CJ, this is a fairly young team; however, the Clippers had the 8th best record in the west last season at 42-40. The Wolves 7th at 46-36. Even conservatively, I see us one or two games above .500. And that’s with no growth from the young guys and injuries to the big 3 baked in

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I think the biggest mistake people make is using the previous season as a baseline - for anything. There are millions of variables in a season, most of which wont be repeated again, and yet it is always used as a baseline. Sure, 8th was 42-40 last year. There was also a season where 48 wins got the Phoenix Suns 9th place. Its hard to do but you have to wipe everything clean. You cant use it as a baseline to go off of. The equation for a single team is never - last years record plus improvements made minus roster subtractions equals wins this year. Yet, that is the way we tend to think of it, and then do the same for the whole conference, and then the whole league. You have to remove the previous season as a baseline because 90% of the variables that occured in it, wont occur in this season

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

Im not making a case for a 50 win team. Even with the addition of CJ, this is a fairly young team; however, the Clippers had the 8th best record in the west last season at 42-40. The Wolves 7th at 46-36. Even conservatively, I see us one or two games above .500. And that’s with no growth from the young guys and injuries to the big 3 baked in

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I think we can be a 50 win team, assuming good injury luck. Of course everything changes if Zion or Ingram or CJ (or some combination of the 3) go down for significant games. But if everything goes well in terms of injury luck, I think estimating us to win anywhere in the range of about 47-52 games makes a lot of sense. It seems a bit weird to me to predict the Clippers becoming 20+ games better (which is what it would take for them to be #1 seed) because of a returning Kawhi off a traumatic injury and another 40 games of PG, but not assuming the Pelicans could be even 10 games better with a full season of Zion off a smaller injury, 50+ extra games of CJ, and 30 extra games of Ingram.

The jump from 36 wins to 46 wins is, I think, an easier jump to make than the leap from 42 wins to 62 wins, for probably obvious reasons, and I think we're more likely to jump 10 games than the Clippers are to jump 20.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I think we can be a 50 win team, assuming good injury luck. Of course everything changes if Zion or Ingram or CJ (or some combination of the 3) go down for significant games. But if everything goes well in terms of injury luck, I think estimating us to win anywhere in the range of about 47-52 games makes a lot of sense. It seems a bit weird to me to predict the Clippers becoming 20+ games better (which is what it would take for them to be #1 seed) because of a returning Kawhi off a traumatic injury and another 40 games of PG, but not assuming the Pelicans could be even 10 games better with a full season of Zion off a smaller injury, 50+ extra games of CJ, and 30 extra games of Ingram.

The jump from 36 wins to 46 wins is, I think, an easier jump to make than the leap from 42 wins to 62 wins, for probably obvious reasons, and I think we're more likely to jump 10 games than the Clippers are to jump 20.

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When healthy IMO Kawhi is the best player in the league. In term of scoring inefficiency, defense and killer instinct the closest we've seen to Jordan since Jordan. Adding him and PG a guy I think is also top 25 to a team that was already well coached and were able to fight into the play in games thinking 20 games(assuming that's exactly the number) isn't crazy. Honestly I don't think the Pels making a jump is crazy either. Nobody saw the Grizz getting the 2nd seed. But I think give the circumstances Clippers have a far better chance of making the jump to number 1.

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Originally Posted by da ThRONe

When healthy IMO Kawhi is the best player in the league. In term of scoring inefficiency, defense and killer instinct the closest we've seen to Jordan since Jordan. Adding him and PG a guy I think is also top 25 to a team that was already well coached and were able to fight into the play in games thinking 20 games(assuming that's exactly the number) isn't crazy. Honestly I don't think the Pels making a jump is crazy either. Nobody saw the Grizz getting the 2nd seed. But I think give the circumstances Clippers have a far better chance of making the jump to number 1.

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I think you are thinking of this exercise as best team vs best regular season. Two different things IMO. Kawhi might be better than anybody on the Pels. He will also rest a ton, play limited minutes, and go 80% because playoffs are all that matter to guys that age, with titles under their belt. A fully healthy Clippers team vs a fully healthy Pels team in a playoff series -- I go Clips. But an 82 game slog, give me the young guys who will be up for an excited for a Tuesday game in February over the vets who will just be going through the motions to get to April.

If Gobert and Ayton leave their teams I'm celebrating though

I go back and forth. I want to see the West stay strong 1-8 from last year and even see SA and Portland get better. The Pels will be whatever they will be but the true bonus of next year would be the Lakers being at the bottom again. They are the only team in the West I want to see get worse this off-season

My regular season rankings for the West:

1. Phoenix
2. Golden St
3. LAC
4. New Orleans
5. Denver
6. Memphis
7. Dallas
8. Minnesota
9. Utah
10. Portland
11. San Antonio
12. LAL
13. OKC
14. Sacramento
15. Houston

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Originally Posted by da ThRONe

When healthy IMO Kawhi is the best player in the league. In term of scoring inefficiency, defense and killer instinct the closest we've seen to Jordan since Jordan. Adding him and PG a guy I think is also top 25 to a team that was already well coached and were able to fight into the play in games thinking 20 games(assuming that's exactly the number) isn't crazy. Honestly I don't think the Pels making a jump is crazy either. Nobody saw the Grizz getting the 2nd seed. But I think give the circumstances Clippers have a far better chance of making the jump to number 1.

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I think at least in terms of the regular season, Kawhi's defense has dropped off pretty significantly over the last few years. That's not to say he's a bad defender, because he's still very good, but his reputation as a DPOY level guy seems to trail him despite that level of impact being pretty much absent in the regular season since he left the Spurs. In terms of the impact that has on a playoff series, it's certainly very important, but I don't think it's worth really factoring into regular season win counts - especially when he's coming back off an ACL tear and a missed full season. I find it very difficult to believe he'll be playing all the games at anything like full intensity in the regular season; him sitting out 20+ games for rest and recovery wouldn't surprise me at all.

The thing about PG is that because he played some of last year and also not some of last year, we got a sample (admittedly small) of what the Clippers lineup looks like both with and without him. Without him, they played at a 39 win pace. With him, they played at a 47 win pace. So if you assume they win roughly 47 games with a full season of PG, you're still putting Kawhi on the hook for basically 15 extra wins. That's a lot to expect from someone who will probably sit out 20+ games, is coming off a massive injury, and who was worth an estimated 8.3 extra wins in the last season he played.

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Originally Posted by RUFshreve

My regular season rankings for the West:

1. Phoenix
2. Golden St
3. LAC
4. New Orleans
5. Denver
6. Memphis
7. Dallas
8. Minnesota
9. Utah
10. Portland
11. San Antonio
12. LAL
13. OKC
14. Sacramento
15. Houston

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Imagine getting another top 8 (possibly top 4) pick!!

Imagine getting two

Pels playing the long game with Jax and JV because they know they're drafting Wemby next year. Think smarter, not harder.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Pels playing the long game with Jax and JV because they know they're drafting Wemby next year. Think smarter, not harder.

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Realistically, what does the ideal center look like next to a Zion, BI, CJ, Herb, Trey, Daniels core?

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

Realistically, what does the ideal center look like next to a Zion, BI, CJ, Herb, Trey, Daniels core?

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I don’t think there is a center on that team. At least not one finishing games or playing more than 26 mins

On that team, I would want a Looney. Guy who plays every night, doesn’t want the ball, sets screens and does dirty work and then is clapping in the final 6 mins on the bench

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I don’t think there is a center on that team. At least not one finishing games or playing more than 26 mins

On that team, I would want a Looney. Guy who plays every night, doesn’t want the ball, sets screens and does dirty work and then is clapping in the final 6 mins on the bench

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So you are in on the idea of Isaiah Stewart? I think I am

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

Realistically, what does the ideal center look like next to a Zion, BI, CJ, Herb, Trey, Daniels core?

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7 foot + guy who is an absurdly talented shotblocker who can play both on and off the ball, projects to shoot as a legitimate threat, and can pass at a high level.

Basically Wemby. But that's the way the league works most of the time: talent wins. So even if he wasn't the perfect fit on paper, the reality is that the talent level between him, Zion, CJ, BI, etc, would just be so high that nobody else could compete.

Reminds me a bit of the Warriors in that, nobody fooled themselves for a second into thinking that Leandro Barbosa, Ian Clark, Brandon Rush, or Festus Ezeli were top tier depth, but when your top 3 are the 2015-16 versions of Steph/Klay/Draymond, nobody cares. You sleepwalk into 60 wins. Nobody cares if Andrew Bogut is truly the ideal centre for that team, it's winning games.

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

So you are in on the idea of Isaiah Stewart? I think I am

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100 percent. People will want shooters and rim protectors and this and that to try to make the perfect team. You want all that, you are gonna have to pay salary wise and/or asset wise

To me, our center will be equivalent to middle relievers in baseball. Get a bunch of them. All with different strengths, and all cheap. Center by committee as opposed to trying to find the “perfect” compliment

I like the idea of Hartenstein but he's not coming here to play backup minutes behind JV, and back up center is a poor use of your cap space. Stewart's inevitable contract would line up perfectly with JV's as well. I think hes my guy, and I'd be willing to give up Jax and whatever 2nds it takes to go get him.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

100 percent. People will want shooters and rim protectors and this and that to try to make the perfect team. You want all that, you are gonna have to pay salary wise and/or asset wise

To me, our center will be equivalent to middle relievers in baseball. Get a bunch of them. All with different strengths, and all cheap. Center by committee as opposed to trying to find the “perfect” compliment

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Is Stewart a realistic possibility or just someone the Pels have expressed interest in?

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

Is Stewart a realistic possibility or just someone the Pels have expressed interest in?

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What is the difference? Not sure how to answer that question.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

What is the difference? Not sure how to answer that question.

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You mentioned previously that some things were moving down the road. Is he someone that there is a real target that has some traction (i.e. moving down the road)or is he just one of many the Pels have targeted if they should decide to move Hayes?

Everything we want to do is in the hands of other teams. We don’t have the desirable assets and the ability to choose. So to know if it’s likely to happen, I would need to know every option at the Pistons disposal. Which I don’t

What I do know is we haven’t been shot down on certain things. Those are what I consider progress. Whereas, some things have just been told straight up no way or the counter was a crazy price to pay and we stopped engaging

Realistically, we should probably all provide three different rankings:

1. Zion plays the entire season (3 seed)
2. Zion plays ~half the season (5-6 seed)
3. Zion becomes Greg Oden (8 seed)

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Stuck to your guns as in, you didn't read everyone else's takes and modify what you thought, you just went with what you thought.

As to what those particular guns would be, I mean things like ranking the Clippers 1st when most other people have them ranked no higher than 3rd, placing the Pelicans out of the playoffs entirely and in a play-in situation, and listing the Lakers are a non-play-in-playoff spot. Those are all slightly unusual takes, imo, and despite them being in the minority in the thread you stuck with them anyway. Even if I think they're bad takes, I appreciate that you went for it.

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I'm no Wood fan (ha) but to me Porzingis over Wood might be the spiciest take of all there. Porzingis hasn't been good in like 5 years.

I'm reading that the Lakers could have an issue keeping Malik Monk due to his very low salary last year and not owning his rights. It makes it difficult to offer him even half what he is worth. Does anyone have interest in him ? Energetic, 39%+ from the three, solid defense. Does anyone know if the team does ?

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Originally Posted by Rampart

I'm reading that the Lakers could have an issue keeping Malik Monk due to his very low salary last year and not owning his rights. It makes it difficult to offer him even half what he is worth. Does anyone have interest in him ? Energetic, 39%+ from the three, solid defense. Does anyone know if the team does ?

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If you get Monk. you're probably sending Dyson to the gleague or shipping out Graham and Kira to make Monk and Dyson fit.

Monk of last year I would take over Graham and Kira but I would be worried about being biased on a bounce back season from him not repeating. He loves the Lakers and may not bring the same energy and/or fall to back to his previous years play if not on that team.

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Originally Posted by Rampart

I'm reading that the Lakers could have an issue keeping Malik Monk due to his very low salary last year and not owning his rights. It makes it difficult to offer him even half what he is worth. Does anyone have interest in him ? Energetic, 39%+ from the three, solid defense. Does anyone know if the team does ?

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Only way to get him would be to give him the full MLE and even that probably wouldn’t be enough as multiple teams will offer that. Do get to the full MLE, you would basically have to dump Graham and get nothing back, which would require picks.

So, long story short, of course he would be a solid player to add but it’s not really likely/possible

Would this change anything?

John Wall to sign with Clippers after receiving buyout from Rockets, per reporthttps://t.co/g7gOe8eHma

— CBS Sports NBA (@CBSSportsNBA) June 28, 2022

About as much as Melo going to the Lakers changed things IMO

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Originally Posted by ml wave

I'm no Wood fan (ha) but to me Porzingis over Wood might be the spiciest take of all there. Porzingis hasn't been good in like 5 years.

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Not really a hot take at all. Porzingis is still a superior talent to Wood, I don't think that's even debatable. He just wasn't a good fit with Luka, but when Luka was out and when he got traded to DC, he played well.

I haven't been keeping up with Wall, but what about his on court performance that will make you guys think he will be a negative or non factor for a team? Did he lose a step?

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Originally Posted by RobertM320

Would this change anything?

John Wall to sign with Clippers after receiving buyout from Rockets, per reporthttps://t.co/g7gOe8eHma

? CBS Sports NBA (@CBSSportsNBA) June 28, 2022

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https://imgflip.com/s/meme/What-Year-Is-It.jpg

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

I haven't been keeping up with Wall, but what about his on court performance that will make you guys think he will be a negative or non factor for a team? Did he lose a step?

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Like 3 or 4.

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

I haven't been keeping up with Wall, but what about his on court performance that will make you guys think he will be a negative or non factor for a team? Did he lose a step?

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Three main things:

1) His main strength on offense was always speed. You may remember, he was lightning quick in his prime. That's how he created advantages, which opened up his ability to drive, gave him room on the perimeter, drew in help defenders, and also opened passing windows. He is now not that fast. He's not suddenly the league's slowest person but his insane and unique speed is no longer there.

2) He used to be known as a fairly strong defender at the guard positions. He has been a poor defender for several years now. That might just be because he hasn't got that many minutes or played many games which has allowed him to atrophy, so there's a possibility his defense will recover a bit in LA, but for now it's fair to think he's lost that strength.

3) In the 70 or so games he's played over the last 4 years he has displayed some of the worst shot selection and offensive feel I can remember seeing out of any superstar. It has been, at times, sub-Westbrook levels. Again, this could just be the result of rust after so little playing time in years and it could improve as he gets back into things, but it's a risk. Maybe he's just let his game degenerate - due to injuries and sitting out - to a point that its irreparable. After all, it's been four years since he last played a real season.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Three main things:

1) His main strength on offense was always speed. You may remember, he was lightning quick in his prime. That's how he created advantages, which opened up his ability to drive, gave him room on the perimeter, drew in help defenders, and also opened passing windows. He is now not that fast. He's not suddenly the league's slowest person but his insane and unique speed is no longer there.

2) He used to be known as a fairly strong defender at the guard positions. He has been a poor defender for several years now. That might just be because he hasn't got that many minutes or played many games which has allowed him to atrophy, so there's a possibility his defense will recover a bit in LA, but for now it's fair to think he's lost that strength.

3) In the 70 or so games he's played over the last 4 years he has displayed some of the worst shot selection and offensive feel I can remember seeing out of any superstar. It has been, at times, sub-Westbrook levels. Again, this could just be the result of rust after so little playing time in years and it could improve as he gets back into things, but it's a risk. Maybe he's just let his game degenerate - due to injuries and sitting out - to a point that its irreparable. After all, it's been four years since he last played a real season.

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John Wall last played in the NBA on April 23, 2020. No one knows how fast he is. No one knows how he plays defense. No one knows what his decision-making is.

John Wall is 31 years old. His return might be Westbrook-esque. Or the time off could rejuvenate him and he comes back healthy, fast as heck and motivated to play hard for the first contender he's ever been a part of.

We just don't know. I wouldn't make any assumptions about his play.

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Originally Posted by RobertM320

Would this change anything?

John Wall to sign with Clippers after receiving buyout from Rockets, per reporthttps://t.co/g7gOe8eHma

— CBS Sports NBA (@CBSSportsNBA) June 28, 2022

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This is high reward practically no risk for the Clippers.

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Originally Posted by da ThRONe

This is high reward practically no risk for the Clippers.

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John Wall was basically kicked off of the Rockets team last season. There is definitely risk. Also, it's very possible that Reggie Jackson is better at this point in their careers

Paying him peanuts though. Worth the risk.

It can’t be that enjoyable to be a clippers fan

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Originally Posted by Upper Decker

John Wall last played in the NBA on April 23, 2020. No one knows how fast he is. No one knows how he plays defense. No one knows what his decision-making is.

John Wall is 31 years old. His return might be Westbrook-esque. Or the time off could rejuvenate him and he comes back healthy, fast as heck and motivated to play hard for the first contender he's ever been a part of.

We just don't know. I wouldn't make any assumptions about his play.

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First of all, John Wall last played in April of 2021, not 2020. So you've basically just erased an entire year worth of recency from your evaluation, which isn't the best place to start. My assessments are based on how he was playing last time we saw him, which was 2021, not 2020.

The second thing is, you're telling me not to ''make any assumptions about his play''. Which is fair. Except, in the post you are literally responding to - and therefore should have read - I literally say things like ''there's a possibility his defense will recover'', ''this could be the result of rust'', ''it could improve as he gets back into things'' etc. The complaint you're making - which is that we can't be 100% sure that his last appearance is representative of how he will look on the Clippers - is a complaint I already included and responded to in the very post you are responding to.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

First of all, John Wall last played in April of 2021, not 2020. So you've basically just erased an entire year worth of recency from your evaluation, which isn't the best place to start. My assessments are based on how he was playing last time we saw him, which was 2021, not 2020.

The second thing is, you're telling me not to ''make any assumptions about his play''. Which is fair. Except, in the post you are literally responding to - and therefore should have read - I literally say things like ''there's a possibility his defense will recover'', ''this could be the result of rust'', ''it could improve as he gets back into things'' etc. The complaint you're making - which is that we can't be 100% sure that his last appearance is representative of how he will look on the Clippers - is a complaint I already included and responded to in the very post you are responding to.

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Oh please, please, please forgive me for all my transgressions!!!!

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

John Wall was basically kicked off of the Rockets team last season. There is definitely risk. Also, it's very possible that Reggie Jackson is better at this point in their careers

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Wall didn't play because the team didn't want to risk him getting hurt while they looked for trade partners.

If Reggie Jackson is better(which he very well may be) what does it cost the Clippers? Which is why this is so low risk for the team. If John Wall is absolutely washed you just cut him.

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Originally Posted by da ThRONe

Wall didn't play because the team didn't want to risk him getting hurt while they looked for trade partners.

If Reggie Jackson is better(which he very well may be) what does it cost the Clippers? Which is why this is so low risk for the team. If John Wall is absolutely washed you just cut him.

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There’s way more to the Wall story

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Originally Posted by coreylaron

It can’t be that enjoyable to be a clippers fan

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Pick your poison around these parts; Broken Kawhi and Playoff P vs. Street Clothes Davis and Westbrick.

Clippers fans have historically low expectations compared to Lakers fans, however.