Trading Jrue?

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

The problem eye-test people have is that while they love to talk trash about statistics (usually because they don't understand them, tbh) they completely fail to realise that there's a huge, gaping, glaring hole in the eye test.

That is; the eye test is only as good as the person performing it. If you're a basketball savant, then your eye test is very useful. If you're an idiot who barely understands what's going on, your eye test is worth less than garbage.

Just something to keep in mind.

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….and that same argument works in reverse for the 'geek' who has never played a competitive game of basketball in his/her life. No?

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

So when Ingram's getting paid the max next year, will his mistakes suddenly, over the course of one summer, become inexcusable? If he's playing like this when he's the highest paid member of the team and the returning all-star, will we get calls to move him?

Of course we won't.

Jrue is absolutely the scapegoat. He's one of the best players on the team despite his disappointments in certain areas, and his playing has only improved as the year has gone on. Yet as he's gotten better, fit more precisely with existing pieces, rather than calls for him to be moved quieting down they have instead only gotten louder.

Some people on this board decided they wanted Jrue moved in November and it does not matter what he does at this point; their minds are made up. Done. Opinion decided. They want him gone.

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1. Ingram is both far more consistent and far more clutch than Jrue. He has shown he can take the team on his back in games. He does make mistakes, but being as young as he is I think many are willing to give him a pass for those mistakes and attributing it to maturity. If he's still making the same mistakes in a few years (OR AT 29 YEARS OLD) then he'd deserve a lot more criticism for it.

2. I don't care if Jrue is moved now or in the offseason, I'd just like to get the best deal we can. Letting his contract expire and/or not getting top dollar seems very foolish.

Is Jrue really the "veteran leadership" / "lead by example" guy we want for the young guys? Given his great inconsistency and low-IQ play I wouldn't think so.

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Originally Posted by akhan786

Holiday and Hayes for Bagley and Bogdan?

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I'm perhaps the biggest critic of JAX as there is in here. For me, he's virtually untouchable; the upside is just too great.

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Originally Posted by As I See It

….and that same argument works in reverse for the 'geek' who has never played a competitive game of basketball in his/her life. No?

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Both analytics and the eye test have pros and cons.

The benefit of the eye test is that it allows to you see things occurring dynamically, so you can see stuff like missed opportunities where a player didn't necessarily do something wrong, but also could have done something better. That's a strength in the eye test that most analytic methods cannot tell you. The downside of the eye test is that, as I said, it's only ever as good as the person doing it; if you're not very good at understanding what's going on, the value of your eye test drops dramatically. It also has the weakness of playing into biases, whether they be aesthetic or generational. People have a tendency to like what they grew up with watching, or what they personally find more fun to watch, rather than what is actually most effective at winning.

The benefit of analytics is that it allows us to filter out aesthetic bias, and to actually work out the best and most effective ways to win basketball games; basketball of course being a big game of Who Can Make The Bigger Number at the end of the day. Analytic methods also allow us to filter out some of the harder things to analyse by eye. The downside to analytics is that there are certain things which are notoriously difficult to capture (for a long time, defense was one of these) and that the best metrics out there which account for stuff like defense can't actually give you a definitive ranking of which player is best, they can only tell you who is best at their role.

The smart basketball fan uses both; they watch the games and they watch film, of course that's absolutely vital, but they're also aware in the flaws of their own eye test and therefore also use the analytics to shape up the analysis, prompt them to pay attention to certain things, and so on. It's a balance of the two.

The not-so-smart basketball fan throws analytics in the bin, declares themselves King Basketball, and decides their Their Own Subjective Eye Test is the One and Only Way to evaluate basketball, and that anyone else who disagrees is a ''geek' and a 'dork' and a ''mathematician'' rather than a real basketball fan.

I'll leave it up to you to decide where you think you fall.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

So when Ingram's getting paid the max next year, will his mistakes suddenly, over the course of one summer, become inexcusable? If he's playing like this when he's the highest paid member of the team and the returning all-star, will we get calls to move him?

Of course we won't.

Jrue is absolutely the scapegoat. He's one of the best players on the team despite his disappointments in certain areas, and his playing has only improved as the year has gone on. Yet as he's gotten better, fit more precisely with existing pieces, rather than calls for him to be moved quieting down they have instead only gotten louder.

Some people on this board decided they wanted Jrue moved in November and it does not matter what he does at this point; their minds are made up. Done. Opinion decided. They want him gone.

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I really appreciate a lot of the content you bring to the forum, but you are dead wrong if you disagree with those that are saying that Jrue isn’t an alpha, shrinks in crunch time and commits turnovers that NOBODY of his veteran status and pay grade should make. Not sure how long you have watched Pelicans basketball, but as someone who has seen most games since we traded for Jrue, that is 100% who he is and has always been. He absolutely does have some great qualities - elite defender and good locker room presence - but I agree with those that say he is not part of the long-term future of this team. That said, I think it probably makes more sense to wait until the offseason to trade him. Will likely have a stronger market due to the weak FA class.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I'll leave it up to you to decide where you think you fall.

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.….as I do, you.

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Originally Posted by pr1840

I really appreciate a lot of the content you bring to the forum, but you are dead wrong if you disagree with those that are saying that Jrue isn’t an alpha, shrinks in crunch time and commits turnovers that NOBODY of his veteran status and pay grade should make. Not sure how long you have watched Pelicans basketball, but as someone who has seen most games since we traded for Jrue, that is 100% who he is and has always been. He absolutely does have some great qualities - elite defender and good locker room presence - but I agree with those that say he is not part of the long-term future of this team. That said, I think it probably makes more sense to wait until the offseason to trade him. Will likely have a stronger market due to the weak FA class.

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Okay. Like I said, not getting into arguments about whether Jrue is good or not anymore. Not worth it.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Okay. Like I said, not getting into arguments about whether Jrue is good or not anymore. Not worth it.

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Do you think it’s a coincidence that Jrue is having what you call an “off” season in the year Griffen called him out as the unquestioned leader of the team and MVP candidate? Quite simply, he is incapable of rising to the challenge. It’s who he is. Again, I don’t want to denigrate the guy because he is a good player and I think he would be a great part of this team if he would agree to defer in crunch time and just play elite defense. But he refuses to do that.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Okay. Like I said, not getting into arguments about whether Jrue is good or not anymore. Not worth it.

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The point you are missing is that pretty much everyone else is saying that Jrue is a good player but no longer a fit for this team due to age, salary, and his miscast role as the leader of this team when he is really the 3rd best player on a solid team. The 3rd best player isn’t worth a max contract if he is not all star caliber. Jrue is not all-star caliber. Maybe he would sneak into an all star game in the East as he did in the past, but he will never be an all star in the West.

Trading him at some point in the next year is what will be best for this team. Whenever his value is the highest. Getting MPJ or Herro would be good value.

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Originally Posted by pr1840

Do you think it’s a coincidence that Jrue is having what you call an “off” season in the year Griffen called him out as the unquestioned leader of the team and MVP candidate? Quite simply, he is incapable of rising to the challenge. It’s who he is. Again, I don’t want to denigrate the guy because he is a good player and I think he would be a great part of this team if he would agree to defer in crunch time and just play elite defense. But he refuses to do that.

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I've said about 5 times in this thread alone that he is, speaking realistically, the third option on offense on this team. I've also said that both Ingram and Zion are better scorers than him at this period of his/their career/s. I've also invited people to wonder what the differences might be between his game this year versus in previous years when wondering why this year has been something of a disappointment to some.

Do you think that I think it's a coincidence?

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Originally Posted by PelicanNation

Jrue looked really selfish vs HOU and completely ignored Zion and on top of that he killed any momentum we had anytime he tried to play hero ball. He doesnt fit with this roster don't need him. He will only get in the way of development. Zo and Ingram (even zion) can handle running the o and creating for others jrue is only in the way at this point. If he is going to be a selfish low iq player ship him and focus on developing the young guys. Get jrue on a contender and give Naw and the other guards valuable minutes.

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In other words, tank. I don't think the players would react well to that.

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Originally Posted by Darkhorse985

The point you are missing is that pretty much everyone else is saying that Jrue is a good player but no longer a fit for this team due to age, salary, and his miscast role as the leader of this team when he is really the 3rd best player on a solid team. The 3rd best player isn’t worth a max contract if he is not all star caliber. Jrue is not all-star caliber. Maybe he would sneak into an all star game in the East as he did in the past, but he will never be an all star in the West.

Trading him at some point in the next year is what will be best for this team. Whenever his value is the highest. Getting MPJ or Herro would be good value.

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Not sure if you've heard this, but Denver aren't moving MPJ.

Also, not sure if you're aware, but Jrue isn't actually on a max deal.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I've said about 5 times in this thread alone that he is, speaking realistically, the third option on offense on this team. I've also said that both Ingram and Zion are better scorers than him at this period of his/their career/s. I've also invited people to wonder what the differences might be between his game this year versus in previous years when wondering why this year has been something of a disappointment to some.

Do you think that I think it's a coincidence?

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OK, so most seem to agree he is the 3rd option on offense. And I can tell you, in crunch time, he should be the fifth option (I trust Zion, Ingram, Lonzo and JJ) to make plays or hit shots in crunch time before Jrue. Unquestionably his best year was when Rondo was running the show and Jrue was off ball. Unfortunately, this year others (especially Lonzo) are deferring to Jrue in crunch time and he is dominating the ball way more than he should for someone with his poor history of decision making when the game is on the line.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Not sure if you've heard this, but Denver aren't moving MPJ.

Also, not sure if you're aware, but Jrue isn't actually on a max deal.

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1. You have no idea what teams will actually do. MPJ is not some untouchable phenom like Zion. He is a solid rookie with potential. If we can’t get MPJ, then I wouldn’t trade with Denver. I wouldn’t take a discount to keep Jrue in the West. I think Miami would be more likely to trade Herro/Winslow/expiring salary filler anyway.

2. What do you think Jrue will expect on his next contract after next season?

I agree that you typically bring good content to discussions, but you are really going full MM on this thread. People are making plenty of valid points on why Jrue should be traded eventually. You act like people shouldn’t even discuss trading him.

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Originally Posted by Darkhorse985

1. You have no idea what teams will actually do. MPJ is not some untouchable phenom like Zion. He is a solid rookie with potential. If we can’t get MPJ, then I wouldn’t trade with Denver. I wouldn’t take a discount to keep Jrue in the West.

2. What do you think Jrue will expect on his next contract after next season?

I agree that you typically bring good content to discussions, but you are really going full MM on this thread. People are making plenty of valid points on why Jrue should be traded eventually. You act like people shouldn’t even discuss trading him.

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1) Woj has reported that Denver are not going to move MPJ. That doesn't mean he won't get traded, but it does mean you're not getting him as a throw-in to another deal without paying for him. If you want MPJ, you will be sending out assets, not getting them back. This fantasy ''Harris, MPJ, and a first for Jrue'' deal is not happening.

2) Nobody is giving Jrue a max. I feel absolutely confident in that. It will not cost a max to retain him.

This is the problem: if someone had proposed a good deal for Jrue, I'd be discussing it. I don't want to move him, but he's not untouchable, he's not one of those top 5 players in the NBA and he's never going to turn into one. But the problem is that people seem absolutely eager to trade him. Like if we somehow fail to trade him, we've made an unforgivable mistake. And therefore we should offload him at first opportunity for some terrible deal like Gary Harris. This is ludicrous.

In case you haven't noticed, the Pelican just jumped the Suns within the last hour in the Western Conference standings.

Think you only consider trading Jrue for a young player who can be part of the core going forward. Heavy unknowns like draft picks (both this year because the draft sucks and future years because those are always a toss up) mean little to us, we already have a billion, so they shouldn't be the core piece in any deal.

Herro, MPJ, Annunoby, Thybulle etc. Otherwise why bother doing it now.

There's a high chance that Jrue will still be the best player even semi available on the trade market in the offseason, and with few Free Agents teams are going to be itching to make the jump to the next level while the top is still wide open and not be worried about what Jrue's price tag may be.

Guys like DLO, Turner, and Levert could become available for Jrue then as those teams try to hit the next level with a good complementary star like Jrue.

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Originally Posted by Pelifan

Think you only consider trading Jrue for a young player who can be part of the core going forward. Heavy unknowns like draft picks (both this year because the draft sucks and future years because those are always a toss up) mean little to us, we already have a billion, so they shouldn't be the core piece in any deal.

Herro, MPJ, Annunoby, Thybulle etc. Otherwise why bother doing it now.

There's a high chance that Jrue will still be the best player even semi available on the trade market in the offseason, and with few Free Agents teams are going to be itching to make the jump to the next level while the top is still wide open and not be worried about what Jrue's price tag may be.

Guys like DLO, Turner, and Levert could become available for Jrue then as those teams try to hit the next level with a good complementary star like Jrue.

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Wouldn't trade Jrue for DLO or Levert. Or Herro, or Thybulle. At least not without extra involved.

Anunoby is far more interesting. Would be worth starting a conversation about.

Not even thinking about MPJ for the reason listed about. Denver aren't moving him unless they're obviously winning the trade.

The only way I prioritise draft picks in a Jrue deal is if they're 2021 draft picks likely to fall within the top 5 (Knicks, for example).

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Wouldn't trade Jrue for DLO or Levert. Or Herro, or Thybulle. At least not without extra involved.

Anunoby is far more interesting. Would be worth starting a conversation about.

Not even thinking about MPJ for the reason listed about. Denver aren't moving him unless they're obviously winning the trade.

The only way I prioritise draft picks in a Jrue deal is if they're 2021 draft picks likely to fall within the top 5 (Knicks, for example).

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Yea I'm not saying these are trades I'd do, or the other side would do, I'm just saying these are young players that can move the Needle for the pels going forward potentially and when they might be available from potential Jrue buyers.

I think you might misunderstand me on Jrue. I can’t speak for others but I like and value him as a Pel and just as a person you want to have in your organization. I just want to use that value while it’s high to acquire different skill sets that I think fit better, namely shooting and a longer defender in the front court. Would I trade Jrue straight up for any one of those skill sets. No. But if I can get both plus a decent draft choice (even if it’s a couple of years out) then I would seriously consider it now.

Jrue turns 30 this offseason. He’s a career 35% shooter from deep. His free throw shooting, especially late in games, has taken an alarming dip. Those are relevant metrics too. I think he may be at peak value this week. Considering all the relevant factors, a trade now might be the smart play.

https://basketball.realgm.com/tradec..._trade/7283304

Jrue for D'Angelo Russell straight up? Sure, we give up some D but you gain shooting and youth. Salaries are pretty much a wash. Russell is a better ball handler in my opinion which may lead to less turnovers (although statistically Jrue is better). My issue with Jrue is that he seems tp need to get to the paint to really be effective and with Zion and BI already slashing down there and Jax rim running, it's a log jam. That causes Jrue to take a lot of threes which really isn't his strength. D'Angelo is a better 3 point shooter which gives us spacing. Jrue also has mental lapses on offense. It's like the game is moving too fast or something. He often gets caught in the air with nowhere to go. Just a thought.

God no

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Originally Posted by Dr. Sting

https://basketball.realgm.com/tradec..._trade/7283304

Jrue for D'Angelo Russell straight up? Sure, we give up some D but you gain shooting and youth. Salaries are pretty much a wash. Russell is a better ball handler in my opinion which may lead to less turnovers (although statistically Jrue is better). My issue with Jrue is that he seems tp need to get to the paint to really be effective and with Zion and BI already slashing down there and Jax rim running, it's a log jam. That causes Jrue to take a lot of threes which really isn't his strength. D'Angelo is a better 3 point shooter which gives us spacing. Jrue also has mental lapses on offense. It's like the game is moving too fast or something. He often gets caught in the air with nowhere to go. Just a thought.

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P U !

A weird idea I've seen a few times this year is that Ingram is a slasher who spends tons of time in the paint.

Where has this come from?

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Originally Posted by Dr. Sting

https://basketball.realgm.com/tradec..._trade/7283304

Jrue for D'Angelo Russell straight up? Sure, we give up some D but you gain shooting and youth. Salaries are pretty much a wash. Russell is a better ball handler in my opinion which may lead to less turnovers (although statistically Jrue is better). My issue with Jrue is that he seems tp need to get to the paint to really be effective and with Zion and BI already slashing down there and Jax rim running, it's a log jam. That causes Jrue to take a lot of threes which really isn't his strength. D'Angelo is a better 3 point shooter which gives us spacing. Jrue also has mental lapses on offense. It's like the game is moving too fast or something. He often gets caught in the air with nowhere to go. Just a thought.

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No way, he's a locker-room cancer on a silver platter. Ask, Nick Young or the Lakers what they think of Russell. I could never trade a talented player with upstanding character for a player who is simply simply a 'character'. No need to add arsenic to this brew!!!!

Just figured I'd drop this here for anyone who hasn't seen it. It's from the latest In The N.O. Pod, where Shamit and Mason are talking about the Jrue-to-Denver-trade. The trade they're discussing is the one that was floated in the media: Gary Harris + Malik Beasley + Unprotected 1st. MPJ off limits.

Shamit: ''I mean, I feel like if I want unprotected picks I'd want the pick the year after Jrue's contract expires. So, like, the 2022 unprotected first round pick. That's what I'd be aiming for, if that's what I wanted. But my larger problem with that trade is just the players. The players are just not that good. I think Gary Harris is aggressively mediocre and I really, I genuinely do not think he's producing at a higher level than E'twaun Moore right now.''

Mason: ''Okay.''

Shamit: ''He is 6 foot 3, 6 foot 4, he was supposed to be a good shooter but he's had one good shooting year, one above average shooting year, and then his last two years he's shot a combined 32% from 3. This year he's averaging 10 points a game, 2.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists. I mean like, your defense has to be all world for me to be like okay that's a guy I wanna take a chance on.''

Mason: ''Sounds like Solomon Hill, man.''

Shamit: ''He's 25 years old. Like, that's not old but he's not a young prospect anymore. So that's Gary Harris. Then you have Malik Beasley who is buried in their rotation so we don't know if he's really good or not because he doesn't get any consistent minutes, he can score the ball but again he doesn't really contribute when it comes to rebounding, he doesn't really assist, um, I don't expect his defense to be phenomenal. He's a decent shooter from 3, and he is due for a payday. He's in the last year of a $2.7m contract and then he's an RFA. So what do you do with this? So then you have Gary Harris, Malik Beasley, and on your roster you have E'twaun Moore, which he's here now, Josh Hart, JJ Redick, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Frank Jackson... and then Didi waiting in the wings, you have like 7 shooting guards. That are all about 6'4, and they all do the same thing. That would be a terrible trade. Unless I could combine them into like, one Bradley Beal -''

Mason: ''There it is [laughs]''

Shamit: ''Why would I wanna do this trade? Those picks aren't going to do anything for me. The only reason you make that trade is if someone else either values your current players or these players and you're flipping them for players of need because when you move Jrue Holiday, you're moving your singular best perimeter defender. Your only guy who is checking the opponents best player defensively; I don't wanna hear it about Lonzo Ball, he's not picking up those players. He's gotten better defensively, but it's not his game to guard 1-4 and shut them down. Ingram, we've talked about it, I'd say he's one of the lower defensive players for his position, he's not very good on that end, and you don't want him defending a lot of those players if he's going to be doing so much on the other end. Zion Williamson is a rookie and is clearly out of position all the time, you can't expect him to be that guy. Jrue's your only perimeter defender.

So you replace him with a bunch of 6'4 guys and like, Jrue's 6'4 but unlike other 6'4 guys he can play bigger than his size, and then you're removing the only guy on the roster that is able and willing to consistently run a pick and roll. I know Brandon Ingram has gotten a lot better at it and he's gotten really good at scoring out of it, but when it comes to setting the table for others out of it, there still isn't a guy on Jrue's level on this team yet. So you're replacing 2 important skillsets, with skillsets you already have on the roster. What is the difference between Gary Harris and Josh Hart right now? Hart is averaging 10.6 points, the same as Gary Harris. He's shooting better from 3. He's averaging 6 rebounds per game. He's playing less minutes.''

Mason: ''Yeah, I was going to say that the per 36 minutes [for Hart] go up even further from there.''

Shamit: ''Yeah so you already have Gary Harris on your roster. His name is Josh Hart.''

Mason: ''Yeah I mean... that's a... not to say that Gary Harris isn't an all around better player than Josh Hart, but that's certainly doing a disservice to Josh Hart in certain areas of Hart's game. Whether that's overall hustle, rebounding -''

Shamit: ''You have hustle, you have rebounding, you have tenacity in transition, I mean he's probably the best transition finisher outside of Zion on this team. I would rather give all those minutes to Hart than invest in Gary Harris.''

This is just a segment. Obviously I recommend listening to the entire pod because it's great. But there's just a segment directly relevant to this thread. They also talk about other trade possibilities, and other players [Favors, Moore, Redick, for example] so it's definitely a good listen. But I figured this was a really good breakdown of a probable Denver offer.

I agree 100% that I wouldn’t trade Jrue for Harris, Beasley, and a 1st. With Denver, it’s either MPJ or no trade.

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Originally Posted by Darkhorse985

I agree 100% that I wouldn’t trade Jrue for Harris, Beasley, and a 1st. With Denver, it’s either MPJ or no trade.

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Agree that’s not enough of a return. But whenever the trade happens I will not be sorry to see him go. Tonight was another nationally televised game against a good team and another garbage game from Jrue. You think at some point he would figure out that he’s not a great 3 point shooter and stop taking the low percentage step backs threes. Nope - he just keeps chucking. Low IQ player.

The trade they discuss from the Heat is slightly more intriguing for Jrue, although I'm still not super hot on it.

They start by assuming that Bam is a no-go. Which is fair. Bam is probably off limits for Miami; understandably, he's been fantastic. Would love to get him, but Heat are not gonna move him for anything shy of a superstar, it seems.

They also point out that the Heat do not have the ability to trade any of their own picks until like, 2025. So they can't sweeten the pot with picks.

As a result, they start with Herro being mandatory. Absolutely required; there can be no Heat trade, for Shamit and Mason, without Tyler Herro. I think that's fair. Then, they take a look through the Heat roster at who they would want and they do some discussion, and they basically come up with something like this.

Heat get: Jrue Holiday
Pels get: Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Justise Winslow

That's the core of the trade, and obviously then you shuffle stuff around to make salaries work. I think Heat would need to add some more dead salary which would mean the Pels would probably have to send someone else out with Jrue (Frank?) to keep roster spaces together, but whatever, you get the idea.

Now, I'm not super hot on this move but I like it a lot more than the Denver proposal. My concern is that you don't really have a half-court point guard on the roster, really at all, after this. Shamit points out that of course, you'd just give the ball more to Ingram and Zion, which is fair, but I do still think we'd see a drop off in the quality of our half-court offense at least in the short term.

Defensively, there's a drop off. Neither Herro nor Robinson are great defenders, but Winslow is pretty good on that end; the concern there is health. Winslow's had a ton of injury issues. That said, we do have Aaron Nelson so at some point you have to either put faith in him or not.

The big upside, which Shamit and Mason both agree would be great, is the added shooting. Herro shoots 39% from 3 on 5.5 attempts a game and is an 84% FT shooter. Robinson shoots 44% from 3 on 7.7 attempts per game, and is an 88.1% FT shooter. They would instantly provide a ton of spacing and reliable FT shooting, both things we would currently appreciate. Especially the FTs.

I still don't love it, because of Winslow's injury history that has absolutely plagued him, along with the loss of our best perimeter defender, but I do prefer it to the Denver deal.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

The trade they discuss from the Heat is slightly more intriguing for Jrue, although I'm still not super hot on it.

They start by assuming that Bam is a no-go. Which is fair. Bam is probably off limits for Miami; understandably, he's been fantastic. Would love to get him, but Heat are not gonna move him for anything shy of a superstar, it seems.

They also point out that the Heat do not have the ability to trade any of their own picks until like, 2025. So they can't sweeten the pot with picks.

As a result, they start with Herro being mandatory. Absolutely required; there can be no Heat trade, for Shamit and Mason, without Tyler Herro. I think that's fair. Then, they take a look through the Heat roster at who they would want and they do some discussion, and they basically come up with something like this.

Heat get: Jrue Holiday
Pels get: Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Justise Winslow

That's the core of the trade, and obviously then you shuffle stuff around to make salaries work. I think Heat would need to add some more dead salary which would mean the Pels would probably have to send someone else out with Jrue (Frank?) to keep roster spaces together, but whatever, you get the idea.

Now, I'm not super hot on this move but I like it a lot more than the Denver proposal. My concern is that you don't really have a half-court point guard on the roster, really at all, after this. Shamit points out that of course, you'd just give the ball more to Ingram and Zion, which is fair, but I do still think we'd see a drop off in the quality of our half-court offense at least in the short term.

Defensively, there's a drop off. Neither Herro nor Robinson are great defenders, but Winslow is pretty good on that end; the concern there is health. Winslow's had a ton of injury issues. That said, we do have Aaron Nelson so at some point you have to either put faith in him or not.

The big upside, which Shamit and Mason both agree would be great, is the added shooting. Herro shoots 39% from 3 on 5.5 attempts a game and is an 84% FT shooter. Robinson shoots 44% from 3 on 7.7 attempts per game, and is an 88.1% FT shooter. They would instantly provide a ton of spacing and reliable FT shooting, both things we would currently appreciate. Especially the FTs.

I still don't love it, because of Winslow's injury history that has absolutely plagued him, along with the loss of our best perimeter defender, but I do prefer it to the Denver deal.

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Miami trade not bad if the feeling is Jrue is not part of our long-term future. The other guys from Miami fit the timeline of our core. However, if we think Jrue could sign after next year, I may pass.

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

Miami trade not bad if the feeling is Jrue is not part of our long-term future. The other guys from Miami fit the timeline of our core. However, if we think Jrue could sign after next year, I may pass.

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I agree with that. If you're determined to trade Jrue because you just do not wanna resign him, or because you have internal indications that he's going to opt out/doesn't want to stay, then the Heat move wouldn't be too bad. But if given the choice, I would also probably stand pat on it. If Miami could add draft compensation and take some of our strays off our hands, guys like Frank, then that might change things but as it stands they can't.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

The trade they discuss from the Heat is slightly more intriguing for Jrue, although I'm still not super hot on it.

They start by assuming that Bam is a no-go. Which is fair. Bam is probably off limits for Miami; understandably, he's been fantastic. Would love to get him, but Heat are not gonna move him for anything shy of a superstar, it seems.

They also point out that the Heat do not have the ability to trade any of their own picks until like, 2025. So they can't sweeten the pot with picks.

As a result, they start with Herro being mandatory. Absolutely required; there can be no Heat trade, for Shamit and Mason, without Tyler Herro. I think that's fair. Then, they take a look through the Heat roster at who they would want and they do some discussion, and they basically come up with something like this.

Heat get: Jrue Holiday
Pels get: Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Justise Winslow

That's the core of the trade, and obviously then you shuffle stuff around to make salaries work. I think Heat would need to add some more dead salary which would mean the Pels would probably have to send someone else out with Jrue (Frank?) to keep roster spaces together, but whatever, you get the idea.

Now, I'm not super hot on this move but I like it a lot more than the Denver proposal. My concern is that you don't really have a half-court point guard on the roster, really at all, after this. Shamit points out that of course, you'd just give the ball more to Ingram and Zion, which is fair, but I do still think we'd see a drop off in the quality of our half-court offense at least in the short term.

Defensively, there's a drop off. Neither Herro nor Robinson are great defenders, but Winslow is pretty good on that end; the concern there is health. Winslow's had a ton of injury issues. That said, we do have Aaron Nelson so at some point you have to either put faith in him or not.

The big upside, which Shamit and Mason both agree would be great, is the added shooting. Herro shoots 39% from 3 on 5.5 attempts a game and is an 84% FT shooter. Robinson shoots 44% from 3 on 7.7 attempts per game, and is an 88.1% FT shooter. They would instantly provide a ton of spacing and reliable FT shooting, both things we would currently appreciate. Especially the FTs.

I still don't love it, because of Winslow's injury history that has absolutely plagued him, along with the loss of our best perimeter defender, but I do prefer it to the Denver deal.

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I really doubt the Pels could swing Duncan Robinson in addition to Herro and that the Heat would be interested, Butler is having a terrible year from 3 for them. No way Miami would trade their 2 best shooters for a mediocre shooter like Holiday.

Realistically I think we'd have to take on Waiters or James Johnson to get Herro and Winslow. and I'm still not sure Miami would be interested.

Also Winslow is pretty much as much a point as Holiday is by the way.

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Originally Posted by Pelifan

I really doubt the Pels could swing Duncan Robinson in addition to Herro and that the Heat would be interested, Butler is having a terrible year from 3 for them. No way Miami would trade their 2 best shooters for a mediocre shooter like Holiday.

Realistically I think we'd have to take on Waiters or James Johnson to get Herro and Winslow. and I'm still not sure Miami would be interested.

Also Winslow is pretty much as much a point as Holiday is by the way.

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Nah, Winslow is a decent distributor but he's not a true point.

The thing is, Jrue is a good player. I know that half of this board seems to think otherwise, but he's really good at basketball. He's having a bad year, and he's still putting up 20/4/6 with all-league defense. That has value.

If the Heat want him, they will have to give up assets. Just Herro isn't enough. They're obviously not giving up Bam. Winslow is good but he hasn't played more than 70 games in 4 years: hell, he's injured right now. They have 0 draft compensation to add. So if they want him, they add Robinson. If they don't want to add Robinson then that's fine; they just don't get him.

We'd already have to take on a bad deal just to make the salaries work, so we'd be doing Miami two favours: firstly, we're giving them the best player in the deal, and secondly, we're taking bad long term salary off their hands (Waiters, for example). In exchange for that, they had to give up positive assets. If they don't like it, that's cool. Nobody's forcing them to make a trade.

I just don't understand the game plan. Williamson is 19 Ingram is 22 that's the foreseeable nucleus of this team. Everyone that should be seen as a long term(at least 4 seasons from now) candidates should fit them in play style and age. Jrue is 29 and his playstyle will force Ingram to be a 3 and Williamson to play the 4. This doesn't even get Holiday inability to play well in the clutch and all his many turnovers.

Trading Holiday IMO should be a no brainer.

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Originally Posted by da ThRONe

I just don't understand the game plan. Williamson is 19 Ingram is 22 that's the foreseeable nucleus of this team. Everyone that should be seen as a long term(at least 4 seasons from now) candidates should fit them in play style and age. Jrue is 29 and his playstyle will force Ingram to be a 3 and Williamson to play the 4. This doesn't even get Holiday inability to play well in the clutch and all his many turnovers.

Trading Holiday IMO should be a no brainer.

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It is a no brainer. The debate you guys should be having is not IF, it's WHEN.

Let me paint a picture for you:

Imagine now means Denver vs Miami and some lukewarm bids.

Imagine this summer, Giannis signs his extension. 29 teams just failed to win the title and need some talent. The 2020 FA class and Draft suck. Now, 2021 doesn't look so good because Giannis aint leaving and none of the other guys look primed to move. Lets also imagine Washington stays stubborn and won't move Beal yet. Now, Holiday is the bell of the ball and there are 6-10 teams all bidding, knowing that they might not have a shot at any top tier guys any time soon.

So, again, you guys are debating the wrong thing. The debate is: Would we get more Thursday or more this summer? And I think its incredibly likely you can get more this summer. I certainly don't think its very likely you could get less

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

And I think its incredibly likely you can get more this summer. I certainly don't think its very likely you could get less

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That is likely the case. The only way it is better to do a trade now is if someone gets desperate for a run and overpays.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

It is a no brainer. The debate you guys should be having is not IF, it's WHEN.

Let me paint a picture for you:

Imagine now means Denver vs Miami and some lukewarm bids.

Imagine this summer, Giannis signs his extension. 29 teams just failed to win the title and need some talent. The 2020 FA class and Draft suck. Now, 2021 doesn't look so good because Giannis aint leaving and none of the other guys look primed to move. Lets also imagine Washington stays stubborn and won't move Beal yet. Now, Holiday is the bell of the ball and there are 6-10 teams all bidding, knowing that they might not have a shot at any top tier guys any time soon.

So, again, you guys are debating the wrong thing. The debate is: Would we get more Thursday or more this summer? And I think its incredibly likely you can get more this summer. I certainly don't think its very likely you could get less

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Yes having him on a long term deal puts us in the driver seat. I won't pretend to know if it's better to sell now or hold on any Holiday trades. I do hope though that all this Jrue apart of the future from the FO is just rhetoric to protect his trade value.

So if we don't believe Jrue is the long term 3rd option on this team, who is? What type of player would be an ideal fit next to Zion and BI long term with Zo and Hart as secondary pieces and potentially Jax and NAW in the future. I think its important to try and identify that now because we have to be ready to strike on an opportunity to acquire one of those guys if they became available.

I've seen a lot of people suggest its an elite pull up shooter. If so, would we go after Beal or Buddy? Can you subtract Jrue and add a subpar defender next to Ingram and still survive?

Either way, I think whatever assets we acquire for Jrue should be with the future flip in mind. IMO, we're not so much acquiring guys for this team as we are acquiring pieces to be moved in a future deal for a superstar. That's why I would wait, if we truly believe more lucrative deals will become available this summer.

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Originally Posted by da ThRONe

I just don't understand the game plan. Williamson is 19 Ingram is 22 that's the foreseeable nucleus of this team. Everyone that should be seen as a long term(at least 4 seasons from now) candidates should fit them in play style and age. Jrue is 29 and his playstyle will force Ingram to be a 3 and Williamson to play the 4. This doesn't even get Holiday inability to play well in the clutch and all his many turnovers.

Trading Holiday IMO should be a no brainer.

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Ingram is a 3 and Zion is a 4/5. What's the issue there?

New Orleans continues to be content with Jrue Holiday remaining on roster through Thursday’s NBA Trade Deadline, league sources tell ESPN. The kind of overwhelming offer it would take to pry Holiday hasn’t surfaced in the marketplace.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) February 5, 2020

Unsurprising. Trading Jrue isn't some forbidden idea that nobody will permit, but he's a good player who has value and he's not getting moved for garbage.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Ingram is a 3 and Zion is a 4/5. What's the issue there?

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Not sure which 2s in the league Ingram is covering, but he sure as hell can't stick with Mitchell, Murray, Harden, SGA, CJM, Booker, in no particular order. And that's just in the west. This also doesn't take into consideration what a disaster Zion has been on ball against quicker ball handlers.

Zion at the 3 would just absolutely demolish spacing as well. I can't imagine what 4 and 5 you would have to put next to a 3 man group of Ball, Ingram, Zion; but again traditionally floor spacing bigs are horrid defensively.

Best thing that can happen is we sneak into the playoffs and Jrue balls out there increasing his value a good bit. He is more of a postseason player anyway so that might be the best possible scenario. The Heat are the only team that are desperate for someone like Jrue but they don’t really have much in assets atm. So- we wait I guess.

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

Not sure which 2s in the league Ingram is covering, but he sure as hell can't stick with Mitchell, Murray, Harden, SGA, CJM, Booker, in no particular order. And that's just in the west. This also doesn't take into consideration what a disaster Zion has been on ball against quicker ball handlers.

Zion at the 3 would just absolutely demolish spacing as well. I can't imagine what 4 and 5 you would have to put next to a 3 man group of Ball, Ingram, Zion; but again traditionally floor spacing bigs are horrid defensively.

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I can imagine Zion at the 3 in certain lineups, particularly if you have stretchier bigs at the 4 and the 5, that's not really the issue.

But yeah, Ingram's absolute peak position is the 3, imo. Maximises his defensive qualities (the size he imposes over smaller players, wingspan advantages, etc) while minimising his defensive flaws; guarding up against bigs exposes his lack of strength and his high balance, and guarding down against dynamic, explosive guards exposes his relatively slow footspeed, his poor screen navigation, and his occasional balance problems.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I can imagine Zion at the 3 in certain lineups, particularly if you have stretchier bigs at the 4 and the 5, that's not really the issue.

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Definitely. I was strictly speaking finishing lineups. It would be a real test to piece together a lineup featuring Zo-BI-Zion that has two stretch bigs who can finish a game.

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Originally Posted by Silver Nail

For me the starting price is 2 firsts, one of which must be lottery pick, plus a serviceable young player. Someone with NAW potential. That's the start. Not sure if even that is enough.

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Not sure Jrue is valued around the league as much as D'Lo which has GS asking for 2 #1 picks both unprotected. Jrue has value just not what everyone here thinks he does.

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Originally Posted by Bonecrusher

Not sure Jrue is valued around the league as much as D'Lo which has GS asking for 2 #1 picks both unprotected. Jrue has value just not what everyone here thinks he does.

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Jrue has more value than DLo for most teams, I think. DLo is a better on ball passer and shooter, but that's basically it, and going to a better team means that your touches are likely to be diminished, so on-ball skills are generally a bit less portable. The exception being Minnesota, I guess, since they don't really have a star guard or anything right now.

The issue is that I don't really see why anyone would be prioritising picks in a Jrue trade. We have 40 million picks over the next few years, and there are only so many young players you can develop simultaneously while giving them all justice and opportunity. Frankly, if there are any picks involved in a Jrue deal, they should be only as sweeteners in case of lower value assets, and they should be for 2021 and beyond rather than immediate.

Also ''Jrue has value just not what everyone here thinks he does''. Most people on here seem to think he's worth about a Gary Harris and the #25 pick, so if everyone else thinks he has even less value than that, he's a salary dump :hihi:

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Jrue has more value than DLo for most teams, I think. DLo is a better on ball passer and shooter, but that's basically it, and going to a better team means that your touches are likely to be diminished, so on-ball skills are generally a bit less portable. The exception being Minnesota, I guess, since they don't really have a star guard or anything right now.

The issue is that I don't really see why anyone would be prioritising picks in a Jrue trade. We have 40 million picks over the next few years, and there are only so many young players you can develop simultaneously while giving them all justice and opportunity. Frankly, if there are any picks involved in a Jrue deal, they should be only as sweeteners in case of lower value assets, and they should be for 2021 and beyond rather than immediate.

Also ''Jrue has value just not what everyone here thinks he does''. Most people on here seem to think he's worth about a Gary Harris and the #25 pick, so if everyone else thinks he has even less value than that, he's a salary dump :hihi:

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Some think he's going to fetch them a 1st round pick and MPJ when Denver has already said he's untouchable or Miami trading Winslow, Herro etc. If Miami sends anyone out it will have to include Waiters.

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Originally Posted by Bonecrusher

Some think he's going to fetch them a 1st round pick and MPJ when Denver has already said he's untouchable or Miami trading Winslow, Herro etc. If Miami sends anyone out it will have to include Waiters.

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Well yeah, it frustrates me when people bring up MPJ when he's already off the table. That's clear.

If Miami want Jrue, they're going to have to give up some assets. They don't have picks, so it can't be those. Obviously those assets won't be Butler or Adebayo, for clear reasons. So what else is it going to be? Dragic won't do it, and if we have to take someone like Waiters that doing a huge favour to Miami. If they both shed bad salary and take in the best player in the deal, then they have to move good players to do it. That's got to be Herro and/or Winslow/Robinson.

If they don't want to do that, then that's absolutely fine, but the consequence of that is that they don't get Jrue.

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Originally Posted by Bonecrusher

Not sure Jrue is valued around the league as much as D'Lo which has GS asking for 2 #1 picks both unprotected. Jrue has value just not what everyone here thinks he does.

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There is little doubt that Jrue holds much more value with most GMs than Russell. Russell does have some value over Jrue based on age. However, Jrue is probably one of the best 2-way guards in the NBA and a glue guy (which Russell is far from).

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

There is little doubt that Jrue holds much more value with GMs than Russell. Russell's only value over Jrue is his age and 3 point shooting. Jrue is probably one of the best 2-way guards in the NBA and a glue guy (which Russell is far from).

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DLo's value is artificially inflated by the fact that both KAT and Devin Booker are friends with him, and both of those franchises have obvious motivation to give those two players what they want. Warriors are trying to take advantage of that, for obvious and sensible reason.