As time passes, this is looking more like a Houston evac. as opposed to us--but, it's still fairly far out...we'll know in about 36 hours, IMO, where this is headed when it enters the GOM.
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As time passes, this is looking more like a Houston evac. as opposed to us--but, it's still fairly far out...we'll know in about 36 hours, IMO, where this is headed when it enters the GOM.
Most of the models are taking this to Texas. The rest are bringinng it into Florida. Right now, I don't see a model that's even showing it going to the Louisiana coast. Still, it's quite a ways out, so don't let your guard down. We need to continue to monitor this system very closely.
Models are still shifting east and west, but most of them are pointing toward a Texas or extreme SWLA landfall.
Seems to be a push at the moment. 3 models have a TX landfall and 3 have a La. landfall. None appear to be SELA at the moment.
Well, some of the latest runs are more to the right....this is just something we are going to have to watch closely this week.
The new track is not just further east, but it looks like the NHC has almost completely taken out the westward turn that was expected to protect SELA from a direct hit. It shows it going WNW and just staying like that. How aggravating. Just have to keep monitoring it.
There is an interesting discussion on the board Slidell Hornet referred WCH to that says now one of the professional meteorologists who posts there is detecting a weakness in the high pressure ridge, which could really jeopardize SELA
Quote:
Originally Posted by patriotman5
As of now still going toward Houston/Beaumont/TX&LA border. As far as these alamist causing panic, They can panic me all they want, Like many other people I'm staying now!
People will definitely make their own decisions, but I think the message right now is to keep an eye out.
Wow, the latest model runs are totally looking good...all the way down to between Brownsville and Galveston....notta one on Louisiana. We should have nothing with this system if this continues with the models. They are in pretty good agreement with the 2:00EST runs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by alon504
The only problem is that you have to make a forecast on model trends,not just one run.The only thing I get out of the last couple days "trends is that the models are having a very hard time forecasting this trough that is supposed to occur.Timing is everything and everything in that cone has to watch out for now.
That's true^, but at least the models are currently in agreement that the storm should be heading west into Texas. Yesterday the models were split between Texas, La., and even Pensacola.
Cuba got drilled.
http://www.miamiherald.com/581/story/677292.html
Models are in agreemnt now, Its going to Texas.
There,fixed that for ya ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Terrace Fan
Thanks,Quote:
Originally Posted by ktulu909
We may get some of the outer bands(Rain).
This is why I never live by the models.Read some of the very early entries.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...?tstamp=200508
If the models hold then this is very good news.
I really want these models to hold.I want my bed and have a VERY small window to get out of TX before everyone else tries.
Want to see what a surge looks like? Watch the begining and end of this video. (Copy and paste all in browser)
javascript:void(window.open('http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/ynews;_ylt=Auj7Qmu.3m9O6Oy7L7_RNgJH2ocA?ch=4226714&cl=9636054&lang=en','playerWindow','width=793,height=608,scro llbars=no'));
I saw that earlier today and I was like .... :eek:
That's some scary stuff.
A check of the 8 p.m. EDT models has this nowhere near New Orleans now, or even La. All models are pointing to somewhere in mexico up towards not quite Galveston. Of course, we are still in the cone.
Storm is now heading just above the Rio Grande Valley. New Orleans and all of South La. should escape this storm, barring a radical change in forecast. In fact, the entire state is outside the cone of error now, which is amazing. Still a chance of getting some bad weather as the storm moves to our south in the Gulf, but it doesn't look like much. BTW, shows you how unreliable forecasting is days in advance. I don't think anyone predicted a South Texas landfall with this storm until very, very recently.
Storm is entering the Gulf now. Still looks fairly impressive.
Unless this storm takes a serious turn towards the north then Louisiana will be okay. The big thing for us are storms that hit us heading north/east, since the winds would be pushing water in the lake and then down towards the city (if it's traveling in that Katrina like direction).
There has been a slight change in the 2 p.m. EDT advisory. Steering currents appear to be changing. Storm now looks to be on a path hitting between Galveston and Corpus Christi. Then the storm moves to the NNE as it heads inland. Let's hope this "weakness" in the High pressure doesn't continue to break down. I hate to say it, but we still need to watch this storm closely. In fact, SW La. has moved BACK INTO the cone of error. :(
Right about where they projected it to go yesterday. Straight For S.A. lol.
Maybe the Spurs should move to New Orleans. :huh:
they could play at the lakefront areana.Quote:
Originally Posted by West Coast Hornet
I was thinking Girard or Johnny Brite. :p
Quote:
Originally Posted by geaux hornets
I'll go watch the Spurs just to see Eva! :D
Quote:
Originally Posted by West Coast Hornet
Who doesn't want to be a Falcon!
/used to play for the Johnny Bright Falcons traveling football and basketball teams. :p
Ike's still staying low in the Gulf and tracking to lower TX for a Saturday landfall.
There's high confidence in the 2 day track which puts Ike past LA.
Ike came off of Cuba and strengthened quickly to 95 mph, and then in the next advisory, fell back to 80 mph. Now it is sitting at 85 mph, but the next advisory is due out in 10 minutes. Let's hope this hurricane comes in at no greater than a Cat. 1
Ike's hanging at 90 and still targeting TX
This thing is now a Cat 2 and is moving NW. I don't like the movement. The easternmost model has this coming up Galveston Bay. I want to see more WNW movement of this storm, no disrespect intended towards Texas.
Quote:
Originally Posted by West Coast Hornet
Chill out, we are not in the cone. Stay off those B.S. Weather Forums.
Hey, dude, I didn't go to a weather forum to make my own personal observations. It's just an opinion, man, settle down.Quote:
Originally Posted by Terrace Fan
The eye is now forecast to get very close to Houston, with Houston being on the bad side of the storm.
Not much change in the latest advisory. Storm does not seem to be strengthening at this point, but that was the forecast. I am a bit unclear as to why these guys think the storm will become a Cat. 3 before landfall. It's running out of time to strengthen much more. Let's hope it doesn't intensify.
Actually the storm is strengthening,just not in the typical fashion.What has happened is that the windfield has expanded and this is now a physically larger storm than Katrina was.The surge is also much greater than that of a typical category 2 storm as well.
Jeff Masters Blog explains it best.
"
Hurricane Ike's winds remain at Category 2 strength, but Ike is a freak storm with extreme destructive storm surge potential. Ike's pressure fell rapidly last night to 944 mb, but the hurricane did not respond to the pressure change by increasing its maximum winds in the eyewall. Instead, Ike responded by increasing the velocity of its winds away from the eyewall, over a huge stretch of the Gulf of Mexico. Another very unusual feature of Ike is the fact that the surface winds are much slower than the winds being measured aloft by the Hurricane Hunters. Winds at the surface may only be at Category 1 strength, even though Ike has a central pressure characteristic of a Category 3 or 4 storm. This very unusual structure makes forecasting the future intensity of Ike nearly impossible. The possibilities range from a Category 1 storm at landfall--as predicted by the HWRF model--to a Category 4 storm at landfall, as predicted by the GFDL.
Ike is now larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike's huge wind field has put an extraordinarily large volume of ocean water in motion. When this swirling column of water hits the shallow waters of the Continental Shelf, it will be be forced up into a large storm surge which will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city. I don't expect Ike will reach Category 4 strength, thus its maximum surge is not likely to reach the extreme values above 20 feet seen in Hurricane Carla. Like Carla, though, Ike will probably inundate a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast from Port O'Connor to just north of Galveston with a 10-15 foot storm surge. This will occur even if Ike is a Category 1 storm at landfall. The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 15-21 feet at Galveston. The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so it may get overtopped.
The rest can be read at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
BTW,Im home.
Nice info. I wonder how strong that seawall is? I realize it was built in response to the 1900 hurricane that nearly wiped out Galveston. BTW, Katrina's storm surge was 27'-28', a true monster. By comparison, Camille came in at 185mph sustained winds or so and 20' surge.
That cone of error is narrowing on TX.
Last advisory had Ike moving more west than north.
Real windy in Houma right now.
Just had a band come through pulling off siding that didnt go anywhere for Gustav.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktulu909
Well so far we got garbage flying down our street probably because Jefferson Parish did not clean any of it up since Gustav. :bah:
All quiet in Houston....for now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Terrace Fan
Same thing in St Tammany parish. We have tree debris flying all down the street.
good luckQuote:
Originally Posted by Harvey Hornet
No kidding. I'm so glad the Parish was rushing to clean up the Gustav debris in anticipation of Ike - :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Terrace Fan
news out of texas http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html
Lake Charles news (KPLC ch 7): mms://a560.l1058140497.c10581.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/560/10581/v0001/reflector:40497&at1=News+%2D+Live+Stream&vt1=l&h1=Live+Streaming+Coverage&d1=0