quote source:
http://www.gulfcoastwx.com/index.cgi...&page=19#63179
Houston we have a problem!
Well once again the models are moving West and all along I think this was the destination. I said early I thought TX/LA border but it maybe even further west, now the ridge is the main thing to watch again I think it will be much stronger then the model are even still indicating, but the orientation of the strong high is just as key. Will it be a flat ridge that causes a slower approach to the coast and pushes Gustav west or a northwest and southeast ridge that pushes the storms quicker toward the east and slower to NOLA.
The fly in the ointment is Hanna and the TUTT low to here west the combination of her and low could weaken the high and or change it orientation which again the model not be handling very well. Though that is a very outside chance of that.
Intensity wise this storm at some point will flirt with cat4/5 strength over the southeast gulf and over the loop current, but will weaken as he approaches the northern gulf. I do thing the size of the storm will be big the outflow is going to be enhances for a while and I foresee a big storm which even if he goes west could push some serious water towards the sounds of SELA.
A couple of links I stare out for a while to see what is “actually” going on are these two they really help in forecasting steering currents. But! The size and strength of the storm can determine how much affect those steering currents have on it.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/re...s/wg8dlm4.html
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/rams...e_wv_ls_0.html
Hope to post more later.
Take care and in my opinion don’t evacuate west! Go Northeast or east!
Brad
----------------------------
Brad Panovich
Chief Meteorologist
First Warn Storm Team
Carolinas NewsChannel 36
Charlotte, NC