Okay time to do some more LaMelo scouting
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Okay time to do some more LaMelo scouting
[[/I]LaMelo Ball: Illawarra Hawks vs NZ Breakers
Pros:
- Again, can't overstate this. He has the best natural passing ability in this class, from anyone I've seen. If you can think of the pass, he can probably make it. He can pass with both hands, off the dribble. He can float lobs, do skip passes (as he does in this game), bounce passes, thread the needle, go-aheads. He's happy to put spin on the ball, with either hand. Passes from LaMelo come crisp, fast, and largely on target (he can get a little out of control occasionally) and he has great snap on his wrist motion. There's no question to me that this is his best ability: he's not the best passer in the world (damn, he's probably not even top 5 which tells you how crazy some guys out there are) but at 18 years old he's about as good as you can ask anyone to be.
- Perfectly willing to do help defense on easier assignments. There's a moment here where he moves just slightly into the space to cut off the pass that was available before; it's not 'great' or next level defense, but it is something, and that's more than you could say about him six months ago.
- His body control has improved from some of the earlier games I saw of him in the NBL. He's still not 'under control', but he's much less flail-ly than he used to be. There are a few moments here where he goes up for a slightly tricky finish and although he misses some of them, he's not terrifying me as much. Fewer mid-air seizures going on.
- For his height (6'6? ish?) his handle is pretty nice. It's not the tightest in the world but he is ambidextrous with it, and he does show off some pretty nice hesitation moves to either direction. His ability to incorporate pass-fakes into his dribble is pretty good and it can get defenders on the back foot.
- Fast in a straight line. He's not Fox from Sacramento fast, or even the fastest guard in this class, but he's certainly no slouch from one end to the other.
- Likes to attack space, which is a good sign. He's a willing driver even if he's not very good at it (will get to that in the cons), and I don't see any reason why he couldn't improve there a little as he adds core strength, and he does have a decent enough frame to add weight to.
- Quick hands! Isn't generating steals by the dozens or anything, but when he helps he likes to shade the ball handler and scoop a little at it, and he's not really in much foul risk here.
- He's very mobile. I don't know what his wingspan is, but I'd imagine it's a +2.5, maybe +3 differential, which would give him a 6'9 span on a 6'6 body which is really good size for a PG. Combine that with his mobility (he gets over a couple of screens well here with good hip action) and he could become a solid defender 1 through 3. If he fixes the problems I outline in the cons :hihi:
- Pretty good burst actually. He's not an explosive athlete by any means, but he can accelerate without too much difficulty and without needing a huge run-up to get the momentum. There are moments where this benefits him: he scores quite easily in transition a few times here and in other games before because he can build up that head of steam. This is when he's most willing to attack the basket.
Cons:
- You know how Lonzo hates contact on his drives and absolutely refuses to take them if there's any risk of being even really touched? Yeah, LaMelo's a bit like that too. Not quite as bad, he will take more contact than his brother will, but he is very contact-averse and he will gladly sacrifice an easier shot for a difficult fall-away if it means dodging any brushes with defense. Does it at least twice in this game, and I've seen him do it before.
- Cannot shoot. Just can't shoot. I know that a while ago, last week or something, he had a game where he shot well and everyone got excited about it on draft Twitter, I saw the people posting, but he was shooting 27% or so before that, and he shot 1 of 11 from deep tonight as well. His form is horrific. He puts both hands on the sides of the ball rather than the traditional one below+guide hand, then he sort of pushes it outwards. The release is so low that at least three times in this game, it was shot from about nose-height. Due to the sidewards position of his hands, he has to use his thumbs to push off with the release to avoid putting sidespin on the ball, and that just introduces a huge amount of variance. Both of his elbows are flared out. It does look a bit better than it used to because he's not flailing so much anymore, he's transferring closer and closer to a set shot with time, but it's still bad, and when he does jump and get airborne, he lands with his feet pointing everywhere except the basket. Sometimes he leans away as well, like a fade-away. It's really, really, really bad. Possibly more broken than Lonzo's was, somehow. Anyone drafting him will need to put a lot of work into his jumper.
- Awful defensive footwork 1v1; he has slightly high hips and gangly legs, and he doesn't really sit down into a defensive stance so when his footwork is bad like this there's no balance at all. Jab step on him and he takes 2 steps to get balanced again.
- Sometimes screens on offense but refuses to absorb contact on them. He only really does this once in this game, but again, seen it before from him.
- God awful shot selection. Will take bad shots, often, with plenty of time left on the clock without passing it. He'll stroll up into a terrible 3 from well behind the line and brick it, regularly. I mentioned him going 1 for 11 from 3 this game; he went 10 for 28 in total, for 25 points. That's 0.89 points per shot. That's not very good.
- Gambles for steals. Simple, but he does it often. Sometimes you get the vibe that he's only helping because he wants a steal out of it. Maybe that's just me being cynical but that is what it feels like sometimes.
- Very little defensive intensity. Will just stand, not in a stance at all, and watch stuff happen. Head does not stay on a swivel. He's blown by whenever an opposing guard puts their head down and really goes for it, particularly because when he does close out on a shooter, he tends to lead with his feet rather than leaning forward onto the balls of his feet, which puts his weight behind his point of contact with the floor and sends him off balance. NBA level guards will eat him alive for this unless he changes big time.
- Bites on fakes and jabs at least 3 times in this game, getting out of position. Again, something I've seen him do before as well.
- Rebounding numbers are clearly inflated because he just abandons his man on D to run for it. Doesn't box out; in fact, doesn't do much that would require him to take contact (there's that problem again).
I still have him as a top 10 prospect because his passing is so good and I think he does have potential elsewhere, but man he has such huge gaping flaws in his game that it's staggering.
According to Synergy, LaMelo so far this season has generated
0.86 points per possession in the PnR, which is rated as ''very good''
0.92 points per possession in transition, which is rated as ''below average''
0.78 points per possession in isolation, which is rated as ''average''
1.15 points per possession in spot ups, which is rated as ''very good''
and
1 point per possession on cuts, which is rated as ''below average''.
So he has 2 below averages, 1 average, and 2 very goods. He doesn't really do other play types (post-ups/PnR Roll Man, for example) so he doesn't chart on there. Disappointing to see no ''elite'' rankings, which you typically want from top tier prospects. Zion's chart from last year (and yes it's unfair to compare people to Zion) was basically all either Elite or Very Good.
According to Synergy, LaMelo so far ranks in the 47th percentile as an offensive player: his dreadful shooting and willingness to launch terrible shots really does drag him down. That said, his ast:to ratio is still good, he's mobile, he has good hands, and he's tall with incredible court vision. That all combines to tell me he has a lot of potential despite his problems.
What LaMelo needs is to go to a coach/development system that will really iron him out. He needs someone to hold him accountable and tell him ''listen, you can't take these 28 foot off the dribble threes when you're 1 for 10 and there's 17 seconds on the clock. If you do that, I will sit you.''
High risk, high reward pick imo. If everything works out he could be really really really good. If it doesn't, he could be a huge bust.
Watching more Onyeka Okongwu film, and the more I do, the more convinced I am that he's the best C prospect in this draft.
6'9'' with a 7'1'' wingspan, Okongwu is a little smaller than the traditional 'big', but his combination of length, lateral quickness, and burst really compensates for his slight shortness (and it is only slight; if he was 6'10 and a C, most people wouldn't blink twice). The wingspan is an unofficial measurement, I believe, so it might even be a little longer; it certainly wouldn't surprise me, he looks lengthy as hell.
Here're some clips for people who haven't seen much of him before.
Onyeka containing Colbey Ross, this guy is nuts pic.twitter.com/mPJvVIu2Jz
— Ben Pfeifer (@Ben_Pfeifer_) December 3, 2019
Onyeka Okongwu is outstanding pic.twitter.com/svx4UNzsbb
— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) December 2, 2019
Look at the smooth athleticism in that. He just rises up, effortlessly, and jams it. Runs well too, keeps his back really straight which is positive.
Okongwu's current per 36 stats (he averages 27mpg):
23.9 points
11.9 rebounds
0.9 assists
1.4 steals
3.9 blocks
65% TS
36.3 PER
+47.1 Net Rating
2.25% steals
12.07% block
22.03% DREB
13.31% OREB
Just bonkers numbers from a Freshman C.
I know conference play hasn't started so this is a risky comp but here's all the Freshmen since 2010 to have a GBPM of 10, a TS of .600, a BLK% of 5 and a STL% of 2
— TS% Eliot (@Cosmis) December 2, 2019
Onyeka Okongwu, 2020
Zion Williamson, 2019
Joel Embiid, 2014
Anthony Davis, 2012
I've been fooled way too many times by a PG who is a good passer and/or defender but has a terrible shot. I can't think of the last one to pan out. Especially in the current NBA. I want NOTHING to do with another one. I'd probably have to go on suicide watch if we drafted Lamelo. I think I saw Kumar talking about this the other day on Twitter but drafting a "prospect" (where they are bad at basketball but have measurements or intangibles that if they could iron out those flaws they'd be great) outside of the top 5 statically has had very poor odds of success. No. Thank. You.
Yeah, that's my take right now as well. I cannot really buy into the Ball hype because while he truly is an incredible passer, his defense is god-awful and he cannot shoot a single bit. His shot is vomit-inducing. Maybe he gets drafted by the Spurs and Pop decides to stick around and they fix him or something, I don't know, but I don't want to be the team taking that risk.
And yep, you're right: I posted this earlier in the thread and got dismissive comments (because, of course) but the best way to draft a good basketball player is to draft a good basketball player. Obviously I can see the temptation for drafting for potential, and it does sometimes pay off, but if you want the closest thing to a sure-fire shot at a good basketball player you can get, you should just draft someone who is already demonstrably really good.
Every year, some guy who is legitimately really good at basketball drops in the standings because teams got stars in their eyes about some raw prospect who's only been playing for 3 years and who is really athletic, and more often than not, that guy ends up doing nothing whereas the guy who dropped ends up being good. This year's example is Brandon Clarke, who was one of the best college players of the decade but went 21 because he's older, and has been fantastic, whereas guys like Sekou Doumbouya went several spots earlier based entirely on hope and prayers that he'll one day be good at basketball.
Well I hope we draft ball just to watch ya’ll melt. It’s going to be epic.
I think of our very own Kenny Hustle. He wasn't even drafted because of his age even though he was a good basketball player in college. While not a world beater player he's shown he is a legit NBA player who deserves minutes in this league, and he was passed over by every team twice.
Or NAW. If you look at what he did in college he played better than a decent number of guards who went ahead of him but because he played an extra year a guy like Garland (who was injured his college year) went well ahead of him.
List of college prospects in the last 10 years to average at least 15% DREB, 10%BLK, .450 FTR, and 70% from the FT line, in order of BPM:
1) Anthony Davis
2) Karl Anthony Towns
3) Onyeka Okongwu
4) Jaren Jackson Jr
5) Jaxson Hayes
Here's the same list, but when you add in a requirement of at least 2%STL as well:
1) Anthony Davis
2) Onyeka Okongwu
That's it. That's the list.
If you want a centre in this draft, Okongwu is the clear best guy atm. Could always change, still a long way to go, but he's been great so far.
Okongwu use to play with the ball brothers at chino hills
My favorite prospects are Edwards, Okongwu, and RJ Hampton
Call it shade on Cole Anthony, but I haven't bought into him. I like RJ's potential. Need to see more though.
Cole's been massively disappointing so far. I had him as my probable number 1 coming into this year, and while he's still shown some signs (his team defense has been awesome) he's certainly not the top prospect right now. Probably have him somewhere in the 5-10 range.
Hampton's been better than many expected, including myself. His decision making has improved a lot and he's added some passes to his arsenal that he didn't have 6 months ago. That said, I don't think I'd have him top 5 myself still; as a PG, I still have him behind Nico Mannion who has been a monster tbh.
Not excited about this class at all to be honest.
I think it depends what you're looking for tbh. The value in this draft is fairly widely distributed, but it's not got much in the way of true superstar upside.
So if you're a terrible team looking for a probable superstar to come and save you, this draft is really bad. But if you're a team that just needs to pick up guys who are almost certainly NBA-calibre players, even if only 10 year roleplayers, this draft is pretty good; at least when it comes to guards and bigs. Not so many wings.
Basically, a top 3 pick in this draft is pretty low value since there's no guaranteed star to grab, but there's tons of value that will be on the board between 7-15. Good draft to trade down in, imo.
That's fair, obviously we do need to see more of him as competition ramps up. That said, I do think he has played against some teams that are decent enough to show the signs. I don't think touch like his can really be a mirage, the shots I've seen him hit are just unbelievable and they seem almost automatic.
Definitely does have some downsides (like I said, don't think there's a auto-superstar in this draft) but I've seen enough to this point to have him as a top 5 pick. Certainly could change, no doubt.
Love Okongwu! That's a nice 3 man big rotation with Zion and Hayes...lacks shooting obviously, but could be unbelievable defensively.
This is true, although I would add that I think that Zion's going to be at least an acceptable shooter (he shot 34% in college overall despite a dreadful start, and shot over 40% in his final 10 college games) longterm, and that Hayes projects fairly well to add range as well with good form and touch. Might be rough spacing-wise for a year or two until Hayes really adds that to his game and Zion irons out the smaller issues in his form, but long-term I don't see that much of an issue.
id like obi toppin. Unlike all the others forwards we wouldnt be waiting on his development. he's ready to play. good character too reminds me of Rui
He's 22 already and he's no better than some much younger prospects. Age is never a total cut-off for me (I loved Brandon Clarke last draft, for example) but if two players are of roughly equal standard, why would you ever take the older one?
If I'm drafting a big, my sights are dead set on Okongwu. He's multiple years younger than Toppin, and a superior player. Obviously younger age also implies higher upside.
For Pels fans keeping track of Cole Anthony. He and LaMelo might be competing for the worst shooting seasons for a top 5 pick https://t.co/KWfLNFHMHv
— Shamit Dua (@FearTheBrown) December 12, 2019
wouldnt yal say that the SF and PF positions that we should covet the least due to having Ingram and Zion?
I don't personally think it's very useful to think about players as all 5 positions anymore. I find it more useful to think about Guards, Wings, and Bigs.
In that case, Ingram is a wing, but how many other good, high quality wings do we have?
Outside of Jrue, how many good guards do we have?
Outside of Zion, how many good bigs do we have? I'm talking guys who are in the long term plans.
I would argue that when you look at it that way, it becomes clear that we have a need of quality players at really all of the positions. Lonzo is far from proving himself at this point, Hart is good but he's not a must-keep, Frank has been disappointing forever, JJ is in his late 30s and might not be here by the end of February, Moore is not a long term piece. So that's for guards: Jrue and NAW.
With wings, I'd argue that we're pretty shallow. Really there we have Ingram and Kenrich, and that's about it: and even Kenrich is kind of a tweener between a wing and Big.
With Bigs, we have Zion and Jax. Favors isn't guaranteed to stick around and Okafor is not long term quality.
So really it's draft whoever we like best and whoever we think will fit best around Zion. For me, I'm in favour of a guard first because high quality guard play is so important in the league right now, and I'm also thinking of skilled passers who can shoot. So that's what draws me towards Nico Mannion so much.
When it comes to wings, Ingram is going to take primary scoring on the wing. So we don't necessarily need someone who is a lead-scorer type, it's more vital to focus on someone who can fill an auxiliary role on O while covering for Ingram's poor defense against other high calibre wings: that's what leads me towards Isaac Okoro, probably the best defender in this class as of right now.
I feel like you're disrespecting Hayes... lol
jk.
I think the only position you shouldn't covet as much is simply C. We are still probably gonna need a tall PF or another C for a big lineup. Every other position is free reign.
PG
SG
SF
PF/C/ Viable Stretch 4
We need it all. Just because we are young. Doesn't mean you should completely abandon BPA. We still got to see how these players develop.
It's probably why we will probably move assets for a potential superstar. We are gonna be overloaded with young talent and some of the guys that we will draft in a few years... Are gonna be high priced depth.
Just don't pull a Knicks and get 4 PFs.
That's the big one for me.
Figure out what we're going to do with Moore, Redick, Hart, and Lonzo by the trade deadline because you can't make good drafting decisions when you don't know what you have and what you need.
Don't decide to resign Moore, keep Redick, and resign Hart, and then draft a PG. That makes very little sense.
Move assets for a potential superstar? Care to elaborate on this theory?
Hm...I might be a believer in Nico Mannion.
Edwards is probably gonna be my guy with a top 3 pick.
My problem is his tends to be streaky shooter, and too reliant on a 3 PT shoot. I'd say... It's better to draft the SG/PG of the future. Keep Jrue if you must, but ship out Ball, Jackson, and JJ.
I really hope Edwards or NAW can be able to run an offense at point, because they'll make each other redundant. NAW being a 6th man is still a valuable role. I feel like Hayes has a much better IQ ceiling and potential than Wiseman. Whom is looking like a Jahil Okafor+ before his suspension. It's an exaggeration, but his defense in the paint got me hella worried.
Still working out what would be my 4-6 range pick and 7-10 range pick. Which is how I kind of tiered off this draft.
The thing is for me that Edwards is, at least right now, the clear number 1 in this draft. He's not perfect, but he's shown a lot more versatility than many of the others in this class and he has probably the best physical profile. It's been overstated a little, but he does look a bit like Dwyane Wade.
Agreed on Hayes > Wiseman also. Truly cannot understand the Wiseman hype. Someone is going to pick him before Okongwu when they desperately need a big and it's going to be painful.
Not concerning at all that this is LaMelo on a switch against an NBL big pic.twitter.com/mtw6m2VTQs
— Max Carlin (@maxacarlin) December 16, 2019
Truly awful possession from LaMelo here that's actually fairly indicative of his play in wider respects.
Just absolutely cannot generate true separation from anyone with discipline. He's fluid, but he's not explosive in any way, and his handle (while certainly solid) isn't creative or instinctive enough for him to shake people. He gets into a kind of tunnel vision here: I know there's pretty much zero off-ball movement, which doesn't help, but he's not really looking for a pass either despite his lack of success. Settles for the terrible shot that would require crazy touch to finish, and it's touch that he just doesn't really have (at least, not against contact).
Really not understanding the people who have him as a top 3 pick locked in.
People I need to watch for a full analysis soon: Paul Reed, Killian Tillie, Devin Vassell, Killian Hayes, Theo Maledon, Xavier Tillman.
I've seen some of these guys play before just in general, but without paying super close attention and breaking things down. Need to do a full analysis.
Just doing some cursory looks at some of the actual stats (been doing more tape-watching than stat counting for this draft so far, since statistical sample sizes are still fairly small) and yeah, a lot of what I've been seeing is being confirmed by the numbers.
LaMelo, for example. Here's his numbers:
17 pts, 7.4rbds, 6.8asts per game (31mpg). 37.7% FG, 25% 3pt, 72% FT: that's 46.4% TS. 2.62%STL (pretty solid but not incredible), -6.8 Net Rating, 16.2 PER, 0.58 total win shares. None of that is really particularly thrilling. His 2.7 AST:TO ratio is nice, though.
Onyeka Okongwu's numbers:
17.4 pts, 8.7rbds, 0.9 asts per game (27mpg). 61.1% FG, 71.2% FT: that's 64% TS. 2.4%STL, 13.2%BLK (that's awesome), +41.5 Net Rating, 34.97 PER, 2.06 total win shares. All very encouraging. Statistical dominance from someone whose game really pops on tape also.
Nico Mannion's numbers:
14.4 pts, 2rbds, 6.5asts per game (30mpg). 43% FG, 36.2% 3pt, 81.8% FT: that's 55.8% TS. +23.7 Net Rating, 20.81 PER, 1.98 total win shares.
His efficiency has taken a dip recently due to one particularly trash shooting game where he went 3-20 from the floor and 1-10 from 3. Remove that game, and his slash line is more like 48/42/80, which shows the damage one bad game can have when the overall sample size is still so small. One game brings -5% FG, -6% 3pt. Expect to see his efficiency creep back up a bit.
Anthony Edwards' Numbers:
19.8pts, 5.2rbds, 3asts (29mpg). 42%FG, 34% 3pt, 75% FT: that's 53.7% TS. +14.1 Net Rating, 25.51 PER, 1.31 total win shares. His STL% of 3.94 is very encouraging, and his BLK% of 2.31 is pretty solid for a guard also. AST:TO ratio of 1:04 isn't spectacular, but at least it's not negative.
James Wiseman pulling out of college to prepare for the draft is a mixed bag. On one hand the NCAA treated him terribly, so it's justifiable he'd want to just get out rather than jump through hoops to try and be allowed to play.
On the other hand, it means he's pretty much done in terms of draft scouting sample size. And he's not going to get the chance to show growth or to answer criticism. Dude's just done all he's going to do.
Which, for me, isn't great. I have him around #15 on my draft board, possibly a bit lower depending on if some of the more borderline prospects keep things up. He'll end up being drafted top 5 anyway, probably by Golden State or maybe the Hawks, and it will be a bad choice.
He is not the best C prospect in this draft. He projects more as a decent roleplayer than a star, and if you're picking top 5, most people are picking for upside. If you pick Wiseman at, say, 3rd overall then even if he turns out fairly good he will almost inevitably be worse than someone who comes after him, and then picking an objectively average player looks bad relative to the opportunity cost.
I'd disagree with your take that this isn't a deep draft. By contrast, I think it's depth is its strength. It has absolutely no top tier superstar prospects, but tons of players who seem to have roleplayer potential. Good roleplayers are important.
Why do you not think Wiseman has upside?
It's not that he has no upside, that would be silly to say about anyone so young, it's that he has no more upside than other C prospects in this draft who have already shown more.
If you have two players who are both of a similar age, and who both have room to improve by, say, 50% (just making up a number for the sake of demonstration here), but one of them is already a B+ player and the other is only a D+ player, they both have plenty of room to improve but the player who is already showing more is the one who is more likely to end up being good.
Let's say you're Golden State, and you end up with the #1 pick in the draft, and you take Wiseman. And he ends up being a perfectly fine NBA calibre big. Not a star, not an MVP, not an all-NBA guy, but a perfectly fine and solid starting quality big.
And then someone, no idea who, takes Onyeka Okongwu with the 9th pick. And he ends up being an all-star calibre player, an all-NBA/all-Defense candidate, someone who is capable of being a top 15/20 player in the league.
Wiseman didn't suck. He was fine. But you are still going to be seen as having made a huge error.
Perhaps a more dramatic example would be the infamous Ricky Rubio/Steph Curry mixup. Rubio was picked #5 in 2009, and he's no star but he's a solid player. Makes teams better, really good passer, decent enough defender, and has even improved offensively over the last few years. He's a fine player. But Steph Curry went at #7. So the Wolves are universally seen as having missed a trick there, even though Rubio isn't a bust or anything.
The NCAA can go pound sand. Wiseman is a good kid and hey did him dirty. I think he has Chris Bosh potential, but I would have loved to see him play more, or make it oversees and get some experience vs some seasoned talent. Oh well.
People doubting Nico are going to look like a horse’s ****** in a few years, that kid has “it”.
Speaking of Onyeka Okongwu, I don't think I actually wrote up a thing for a full game of him on here, so since I'm finally catching up on some games I'd missed during busy-busy UK Election time, here's one.
ONYEKA OKONGWU: VS TCU
Final Statline: 13pts, 6rbds, 3asts, 7blks, 2stls. 55.6% shooting. Relatively low scoring game for him, he had 27/14 in the game before this and 28/12 in the game following it.
Pros:
- Shows some signs of decent passing. Early play in the first half, 18:45 left on the clock, catches a pass at the perimeter and throws an entry pass into the post. Simple play, but something some bigs miss early in their careers. Has another nice go-ahead pass with 3:50 left in the first half which must be a good 50ft throw over two defenders that arrives right on target.
- Good defensive stance. Stays on the balls of his feet and gets relatively low, with arms to his sides. No flailing and falling back on the heels. Manages to maintain position and stay grounded when defending despite elite explosion as a jumper. Disciplined defender. Tends to meet the ball at the lower points of travel which can sometimes make his shot-blocking prowess look a little less 'highlight' worthy but also removes the need for leaping all over; Duncan used to block shots like this a lot.
- Boxes out relatively well. Isn't a hugely bulky body, but he tends to get solid inside position and sort of press outwards. I'd imagine that it would make him a little susceptible to pulling the chair, but hasn't been an issue as far as I've seen in the games I've watched prior to this one; possible his body control/balance mitigates that.
- Moves feet really well laterally and mirrors fantastically well against opposing offensive players regardless of their size. Very mobile and smooth for a big man; he's not massively tall but he has solid muscle and he's extremely lengthy, and that allows him to crowd smaller players without being too large to lose speed.
- Isn't consistent with it on every play, but shows some very good footwork under the basket. Very smooth: favors shots directly at the rim rather than sweeping hooks, which is actually a good sign, but has the touch to finish layups and push shots as well. There's a moment here at 12:37 in the first half where he ducks under two defenders, keeps the pivot anchored, transfers the ball from left hand to right and finishes with a soft little shot at the rim all in one very clean motion. Can take contact while still putting the ball up in the right place; has another shot at 5 minutes left in the first half where he gets clobbered and still puts it in for the soft finish.
- Lands well, weight on the balls of his feet, slightly bent knees. Heel stays well out of the motion until force is dispersed. Good balance.
- Good hands, which aids him with help. Very willing helper, at 11:40 in the first half he gets a fantastic help steal by digging into the ball, kind of how Jokic does if you know what I mean, scooping it away from the defender so that he can gather it.
- Really really athletic. I haven't watched every single prospect, so I can't say this for sure, but he might be the most athletic player in the draft? Maybe Oscar beats him out there, and possible one or two others, but he's certainly got legitimate burst and it's quick too. Very fast off the ground. Functional athleticism too; runs well.
- Doesn't lay on the screener. He hangs back two or three feet so that when the guard comes off the screen in the PnR, he can easily switch or hedge. That's an advantage of being quick, because he can recover to his man easily and quickly if needed.
- Plays under control. Very rarely looks lost.
Cons:
- Doesn't have a particularly developed handle right now. It's good enough to do some of the simpler things, he's not a totally stagnant big, but he's not taking anyone off the dribble with varied moves as it stands right now.
- Limited range. He's not entirely rim-bound, he's willing to take a FT line jumper and when he does it usually looks fairly nice, and he's a solid FT shooter as well so you imagine that there's potential there to stretch it out, but he's not a 3pt shooter right now. Passes them up entirely the vast majority of the time.
- Occasionally has moments where the motor looks to be running low. He never seems out of position so this could just be a case of confidence in positioning, but I'd prefer to see more action screening, for example.
For real. I don't think he's a perfect prospect by any means (does not attack the rim in the halfcourt nearly enough, for example, and his negative wingspan is just not great sadly) but he's a real NBA player. Wouldn't mind walking out of the draft with him on our team at all.
I'm a little disappointed he's only made or attempted 7 shots inside the paint. But everything else about his game is golden.
In fairness, I do think it's a bit misleading to take that number at face value.
It's definitely accurate, sure, and I do not deny that he needs to show more consistency in driving to the basket and actually getting shots up there: they usually look pretty decent when he does it, and he's a good FT shooter, so he should do it more.
But I have seen a few people on Twitter (not you, Eman) speculating that his low at-rim attempts combined with his pass-first mentality could lead to a Lonzo style inability to scramble defenses and such in the half-court.
From what I've seen so far in college, that won't be an issue. A major difference between Nico and Lonzo in this regard is that while Lonzo simply doesn't drive and therefore doesn't scramble defenses because he lacks an in between game with any gravity, Nico is actually an incredibly effective scorer inside of the arc: he just does it with a diverse range of floaters, push shots, hooks, etc. It's certainly an unusual method of scoring, and obviously not as valuable as someone who is consistently hitting the rim at full force, but it does mean that he has some gravity inside the arc in a way that Lonzo simply doesn't.
It helps that his touch is just bonkers and he's one of the few players I've ever seen where they shoot a floater from 10 feet and I just expect it to go in.
He is not very similar IMO, but even if he was -- this is the #1 mistake people make when drafting. They draft with the current roster in mind, seeking to compliment the current pieces. Yet, by the time a rookie develops, the roster is almost always completely different.
Now, if you have a sure fire superstar piece on your roster, and you have two guys on the board with similar grades and one guys skill sets and "position" overlaps with your star, and the other doesn't, then you draft the guy who doesn't.
But when you draft in 2020, you do not even think about NAW or anybody not named Zion on your roster. You take the best guy available and the best guy who fits skill set wise with Zion. If that guy and NAW both hit, and they are redundant, then maybe you move one. But you do not think about anybody except your guaranteed stars when drafting. It is the top mistake teams make year after year after year
Oh no, I totally agree with you. I’m not saying not to draft him because NAW is on the roster. In my opinion, the Pels can use every position on the floor still. I’m even holding out judgement on Zion. As a Pels fan, it’s hard to believe one player can change this franchise, so I’m all for drafting the best player available until they strike gold. I mean even a player of ADs caliber didn’t win consistently here. The Pels need to find a floor leader, and quite frankly an a**hole on the court. Someone that holds everybody accountable. Someone that puts winning and leadership over worrying about what others think. That’s the type of player I think they should have in mind every time they select someone until the “alpha” is found.
In all likelihood, the alpha will have to come via trade or Zion will have to be one in a similar fashion to Giannis. He won't be a Kobe type alpha but could become a Giannis type alpha
The only other way is if you draft an upperclassman in late 1st/early 2nd who isn't the best player on the team but is the soul of the team, a la Draymond.
But that won't come from some 19 year old who will be younger than Zion and a lesser player to boot. It would have to be a Jordan Nwora type.
But more likely than not, it will be Zion doing it in a Giannis type style