That's definitely true. It's rare to see someone quite so definitively boom or bust. He's either going to be a star or he's gonna be Dragan Bender.
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I think wingspan and bulk play a part in this as well. Someone like PJ Tucker for example is 6'6 but can play centre well and defend well at that position anyway because he's got a huge wingspan and he's absurdly strong and has a low centre of gravity.
Watching Tillman this year has been a masterclass in knowing your length and your body and using it right. He's ridiculously strong, always in the right place, is lengthy, has great hands, etc.
A perfect example of how this can work in the NBA is, as much as we hate to say it given this year, Derrick Favors. Favors spent years for the Jazz as one of the best rim protectors in the league as well as a lethal PnR guy on offense with Ingles, despite being 6'9. The 7'3 wingspan and the strength offset all that for him.
Tillman has that similar frame and build, except he's a lot younger, his back hasn't exploded like Favors' has, and he's also much better at defending in space.
Dae....
Would you put together a package that included LB and our #1 to move up to get Avdija?
Absolutely not haha. I like Deni a decent amount, and I think he deserves the spot he's probably going to get somewhere between 6 and 10, but he's got real issues, just like Lonzo does, and given Lonzo's synergy with Zion it would take more than just Lonzo's own value to move him.
Deni actually has a decent amount in common with Lonzo when you think about it. Both are good defenders with plus physical attributes who struggle a bit on screens and are prone to lapses off ball. Both are really good transition passers whose lack of burst and advanced handle limits them in the halfcourt. Both can shoot but have suboptimal mechanics that make them very inconsistent. Neither are good at the FT line.
Deni has the advantage of being larger, but not actually by that much given Lonzo's large frame for a guard.
They aren't interchangeable, Lonzo's definitely the superior passer and probably the better 1v1 defender as well, while Deni has better team defense instincts, but there's no way I'd be adding assets to a Lonzo trade to get Avdija.
My point isn't that Tillman is PJ Tucker :hihi: it's just that one can be slightly shorter than normal and still be fully capable of defending like a big.
Tillman isn't a shooter but frankly, do we need him to be? Obviously in a perfect world, we would have a stretch 5, but remember that within the context of this discussion we're talking about replaying Favors with Tillman. Favors can't shoot either, so it's not a loss for Tillman to be a none-shooter. The question is what does Tillman add.
- Youth
- Health
- PnR offense
- Perimeter defense/defense in space
- On ball passing/creation utility
All of that is an upgrade to me.
Let’s say we get pick 10. Would you trade JJ Redick, pick 10, and one of the Laker picks to the Warriors to get Anthony Edwards? Imagine the Warriors getting JJ to come off the bench next year. Talk about splash triplets lol. I would think the Warriors want to get back to the top ASAP and a vet like JJ coming off the bench would possibly be more beneficial than a highly drafted rookie. Plus they would still get a top 10 pick anyway to fill more of a need and a late 1st in a future draft.
C: Hayes
PF: Zion
SF: Ingram
SG: Edwards
PG: Ball
That’s a nice young and fun squad to watch grow up together.
No.
First of all, the Warriors probably don't make that move. Klay and Curry are both older than optimal and both coming off major injuries. They need to seriously start looking at adding youth themselves: trading a potential top 3 pick for a 37 year old is the absolute opposite of what they should do in their situation.
Second of all, you don't move multiple first round picks to move up in this draft, especially when you're also sending out a positive impact player like Redick; it's a horrible value move, nobody in this draft is worth that much draft capital.
If we get the #10 pick we should just keep it and draft Maxey or Pokusevski or someone.
Assuming I can find a fool to fall for it, I would trade our # 1 and Ball in heartbeat for a chance to get Avdija. Otherwise I agree with you.
watching Ball in these playoffs got me thinking PG as opposed to wing: Kira Lewis would be a nice pick
my only pause with Kira are the turnovers and defense. having nightmares about those right now. But he is really really talented.
tyrell terry is pretty damn good too
Maxey will be there probably, and I might well take Maxey over Kira.
As for Cole, I actually think he's going to surprise some people. He was so good in high school and EYBL, and then he went to a college system that was the worst possible situation for him and then got injured.
If he can recover in terms of health, I think a lot of people who only saw his college play will be confused by how much better he'll look in the NBA. That said, I still wouldn't take him top 10.
I think I'm going to get my mind ready for either RJ Hampton or Pokusevski to be our guy at 11th or 10th.
I would throw in Okoro, but not sure where he'll land.
I love Okoro but I think he's one of the most fit dependent players in this draft. If he goes to some team that tries to make him a spot up 3 and D guy, he will fail. He's not that much of a shooter.
If he goes somewhere that has some shooters and is willing to give him some reps on-ball from time to time, I think he'll look much better.
I don't think fit would matter for us. We would be drafting him as defensive specialist. He would would be more role player than starter for us. I see him being a great pick, because we will have to clean out our bench. Ingram won't have a back up. If we get a more balanced coach. He would be a safe pick for someone want to improve the defense. I'm not a fan of double wing sets without an elite shooter, but it's an option. RJ requires subtraction at the position. Poku is a gamble.
This fella Aaron Nesmith looks good.
Just BTW. I'm pretty sure our lottery spot is stuck at 13. Unless PHX or SAS make it. In which case we'll be 12th.
Hopefully our guy doesn't go where we would draft if bubble games counted towards the lottery position.
I guess one good thing is in recent drafts, that 10 - 20 range seems to be a sweet spot for landing impactful players if you draft well.
That range pretty much defined the 2017 draft. Yes the Lonzo draft.
Players who have gone between 10 and 20 in the last 5 drafts:
2019: Cam Johnson, PJ Washington, Tyler Herro, Matisse Thybulle
2018: Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Donte DiVincenzo, Michael Porter Jr, Kevin Huerter
2017: Zach Collins, Luke Kennard, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, John Collins
2016: Domantas Sabonis, Malik Beasley, Caris LeVert
2015: Myles Turner, Devin Booker, Kelly Oubre
That is to say, there's usually at least a handful of decent players to be had in that range, and if you're smart/lucky, a few stars as well.
I think I'm really settled on Okoro and Nesmith.
If I had the choice of getting a 2nd pick to draft both without having to gamble on either. I honestly might do it.
Now if we decided to move up in the late 20s... I'd definitely like Desmond Bane. Would be a great bench player that should definitely ready play on day one.
In Langdon, I trust.
Would take Bane over Nesmith.
For me, there are a bunch of players I would be happy to come out of this draft with, and a few names I really want.
So, I want Pokusevski.
I would also be very happy to come out of the draft with: Tyrese Maxey, Grant Riller, Desmond Bane, Xavier Tillman, Killian Tillie, Malachi Flynn, Patrick Williams.
This isn't counting guys like Okongwu who are obviously going top 10, where we are not likely to be.
Yeah, I'm trying cut down my list to probable players. Poku isn't on there. I think the unique skillset with his potential will make him soar up into the late top ten or right before us.
I've slightly sour on Poku's film with all this extra time to second guess myself like an idiot. I don't like his touch around the rim and isn't great at really anything on defense. If Langdon approves of him. I won't question it. 100% don't see him getting passed on by the Spurs.
So, I'm kind of stuck on wings being our pick.
Why do San An pick before us? Is there a trade I’m not remembering? And thanks
I completely disagree about Poku's defense. He's got issues, sure, but his instincts are super high level. Block and steal rates high as hell, and have been for years.
Like, yes, he's competing against relatively low level competition, but what you want to see when an NBA prospect competes against low level competition is domination, and that's what he does.
I could see him potentially going in the top ten if someone takes a punt, but if he's still there when we pick I take him easily.
As for wings, I don't see why that would be a priority. Like, yes, they are an important position in today's NBA, but we're also desperate for another big, and we have a real need for a legitimate lead guard as well, so we're in a clear position where you ignore team need and just take whoever you think is best. For example, I'd take Riller easily even though he's a guard because I think he has upside to be a legitimate NBA creator, which is a super valuable thing for any team.
His defensive playmaking ability against low level competition just doesn't impress me. His foot work isn't consistent and this is what really worries me. His IQ is good against his competition , but nothing that inclines me to believe in that he'll be a defensive specialist. His bright spot is his team defense. He doesn't get out of synch with his teams. Which a good sign that he has untapped potential. I don't think I ever seen a player with a high synergy rating be a bad defender. Maybe a raw one at best.
His midrange game is a huge question mark. He isn't a great spot up shooter. His 3pt shoot is a bit overrated. I don't like a 7 footer being this sub par around the rim against low level competition.
This is all from having a second go around at Poku. I generally never do second looks, because I c n be hyper critical to the point if unreasonable. Especially, when I am also watching NBA basketball at the sametime. All I be doing is working in the Covid hospital and home. So... I'm a little testy lol.
I floated the idea of a lead guard and Riller is a great trade down prospect. Until we do something about our current guard personnel, I really don't want to force it. So I'm More focused on the Best Player Available for our current pick.
NBADraft.net seems to have the preferred draft. Nesmith and this Poku dude.
I think what has to remembered with Poku is that he's incredibly young. Like, there are sophomores in this class who are 3 years older than Poku is. Almost all of the film we have of him is from when he was 17; only a handful of games come after he turned 18. So when you say he isn't a great spot up shooter, this is true, but his pullup is actually quite good and for someone of his age that's much more important to me.
I agree that there are concerns, but there are even more concerns for the vast majority of players in this class, and they are mostly years older as well. Poku is my pick for the upside; sure, if he never puts on weight or puts his shot package together he might never be great, but if he does then the outcome is so much higher than just some mediocre ''he was alright in college'' type.
I have a feeling if they remain at 12, Kira Lewis Jr will be the pick while Lonzo and Jrue move on somewhere else.
I wouldnt be mad with that.
If I'm picking at 12 and I'm choosing a guard, I'm taking Riller.
I think that outside of guys like Antman, Riller has the highest chance in this draft of being an actual NBA level initiator as a guard. Ridiculous shot maker and shot creator, absurd driving ability with burst and athleticism, legitimately bonkers finishing ability at the rim, solid and improving passer, etc etc. He would fill so many of our needs right away, along with having upside
We know his speed will translate, but that doesn't extend to much else about his game. Yes he has upside to add strength, but will he? He's 165lbs at 6'3, he would be one of the lightest players in the league even if he put on 25lbs, and how much will his speed survive that weight gain?
He's not a particularly skilled passer, although he definitely has flashes. His decision making is hit and miss. He's a pretty dreadful defender. He's not a particularly talented creator of his own shot off the dribble, especially in the halfcourt.
Now he is very young for a sophomore, so you can take the bet that his solid shooting does translate with NBA spacing (he has a decent FT% which helps that) and you can guess that he'll add weight while maintaining speed; it's possible.
But in that situation you are taking a lot of risks. I feel like Riller has more upside than he's shown in college still, but at least has given proof over multiple seasons of his ability to do what he can do. Ridiculous amounts of self creation, the efficiency at the rim is crazy, and when you're evaluating shooting you care about versatility of shot profile. Riller takes step backs, catch and shoots, comes off screens, pulls up, the whole shebang. That's encouraging.
I would say that he is probably the perfect shooter you build around Zion. Excellent catch and shot, off screen and in movement. Got great length, but plagued by poor footwork where he really probably never be an elite level defender, but starting caliber... Sure. Needs a facilitater and can't create for himself or a great finisher.
At 12th... He is reach, but a need when your only true shooter is 36 years old. I still wouldn't pick him at 12th if I had what I believe is on the board.
His growth made me a fan of Stackhouse as a coach.
I wouldn't pick Bane 12th either, I'd probably pick Poku if he was still there or Riller if not at that point, assuming that nobody from my top 10 had fallen down, but yeah as a late first round or even second round pick, love Bane.
Not really sure why Nesmith has gotten so much media attention but Bane hasn't.