Yea mannion has fallen for me
Real slow, struggles to get by college players and his defense will be terrible. Tre Jones has easily jumped him for me as a better prospect.
As for the pick I'd look to move up for Okoro
NBA DRAFT 2020 DISCUSSION
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03-21-2020, 06:58 PMSpeakthetruth
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03-22-2020, 02:22 AMPelicanidaeFor me, Mannion's issues are a little different. Yes, his defense is never going to be great in the NBA because he's not particularly strong, he's not very tall, he's got a negative wingspan, etc, but I think he's a smart enough player to compensate for that somewhat and he's a solid enough team defender. Similarly, I don't know if I'd describe him as ''slow'', at least not in a straight line, although it's certainly true that he lacks burst in the half-court and when changing direction.Quote:
Originally Posted by Speakthetruth
His issues to me are more related to upside, psychology, and physicality. He just doesn't like going to the rim. It was bad even at the beginning of the year, but his really high level touch was bailing him out a little and he was scoring well inside the arc despite his inability to get to the rim (again, poor burst) because of it, but the longer things have gone on that touch has abandoned him against good defenses and it just results in a lot of really unpleasant scoring attempts that go nowhere.
He has dreadful shot selection too. Biggest NBA upside for him as a scorer comes from his pullup shooting, which I still buy as having legitimate upside depending on how he gets used and developed, but he's a master of the frustrating long-2 where the 3 would have been clearly better, and he loves to settle for long floaters. That's just not good enough; if you have a developed, versatile scoring game then adding those things can have value, but he doesn't; for a guy like him, being a premiere shooter is vital, and if you can't just take 3s as a priority then you lose a ton of value in that role.
Playmaking is still an upside for him, he's still a good passer and has good vision and IQ, but he's not some kind of genius level passer like LaMelo is, and he's not just a mindblowingly advanced PnR operator like Killian Hayes is either, so it's harder to forgive his flaws like one might for LaMelo or Hayes due to the lack of outlier skill there.
Mannion's #18 on Brian Schroeder's latest big board, Ben Pfeifer has him #27, just for perspective on where ''draft Twitter'' kind of ranks him at this point in the year. I feel like somewhere between 15 and 25 is about right as well. -
03-22-2020, 09:25 PM13 - 3
Trajan Langdon on the Pelicans draft process heading into this season #PelicansPlayback https://t.co/RMTTtBzCa3 pic.twitter.com/KI1n9t7Fto
— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) March 22, 2020 -
03-24-2020, 06:44 PMPelicanidae
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...bqocM/htmlview
Ben Pfeifer is currently keeping a running track of the players who have declared for the draft, in the above Google doc. For a bunch of reasons, there may be some players who we might have expected to declare who do not, and other players who may have been expected to return to college who decide to go for it.
Here's the full list of players who have declared thus far, copied out for those who don't want to click the link:
1) Anthony Edwards - Georgia - Freshman
2) Caesar DeJesus - UCF - Junior
3) Cam Mack - Nebraska - Freshman
4) Daniel Oturu - Minnesota - Sophomore
5) Devin Vassell - Florida State - Sophomore
6) Elijah Hughes - Syracuse - Junior
7) Feron Hunt - SMU - Sophomore
8) Isaac Okoro - Auburn - Freshman
9) James Wiseman - Memphis - Freshman
10) Jayvon Graves - Buffalo - Junior
11) John Petty - Alabama - Junior
12) Jordan Bruner - Yale - Senior
13) Kendric Davis - SMU - Sophomore
14) Kira Lewis Jr - Alabama - Sophomore
15) Marreon Jackson - Toledo - Junior
16) McKinley Wright - Colorado - Junior
17) Nico Mannion - Arizona - Freshman
18) Sandro Mamuke - Seton Hall - Junior
19) Tre Jones - Duke - Sophomore
20) Tyler Bey - Colorado - Junior
21) Tyrese Haliburton - Iowa State - Sophomore
22) Xavier Tillman - Michigan State - Junior -
03-25-2020, 07:27 AMPelicanidae
Will also note that I'm moving into proper 2021 draft mode now, rather than just my occasional dips into it, since the 2020 draft is pretty solidified*. Super excited for next year. Cade is clearly the number 1 right now, but there's just a bunch of guys behind him like BJ Boston, Jonathan Kuminga (he's not technically in this class yet but he's expected to reclassify), who would all automatically be the top pick in this draft.
Then tons of other really intriguing prospects like Jaden Springer, Usman Garuba, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, Jalen Johnson (why are there so many Jalen's in this class :hihi:), Scottie Barnes, Evan Mobley, etc etc.
Obviously we're still really far out, plenty of basketball to see and there are always people who rise or drop during the college year, but just from where we stand right now it's very encouraging.
*I just mean that all the games are played so no new data will be entered and it's all just consideration and evaluation at this point. -
03-25-2020, 01:16 PMPelicanidae
To my family, coaches, teammates, fans, and everyone else whose been supporting me on my journey, thank you �� #21Forever #FightOn pic.twitter.com/OZndkVo3io
— Onyeka Okongwu (@BigO21_) March 25, 2020 -
03-26-2020, 12:10 AMMount ZionI would like to read your impressions of the kid from South Korea when you have time. I believe his name is Sotto.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelicanidae
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03-26-2020, 03:09 AMPelicanidaeWell, I haven't seem a huge amount of his games, so I don't pretend to speak from any position of authority or anything like that. But from what I've seen, here's my take. I'll keep it fairly short and sweet since this is only really a first impressions kind of thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zombiewoof
Pros:
- Obviously, height is something you can't teach. He's 7'2, and that's cool.
- Seems to have decent touch in the paint, finishes with both hands with layups and hooks. Uses the glass.
- Good rim protector, doesn't seem to leap for wild contests too often.
- Fairly mobile for a guy his size, at least in a straight line
- Solid footwork on offense; he says he takes inspiration from Hakeem and Duncan, which is never a bad thing.
- Has reasonable athleticism, which for a guy of his height is enough. Doesn't need a 40 inch vert.
Cons:
- Rebounding seems to be entirely based on his height so far; fairly little natural instinct or feel to it
- Doesn't fully escape the patented Tall Guy Mobility Issues curse, with some clunky lateral movement
- Desperately needs to put on weight (he's super young, so not a big worry yet, but still)
- Extremely mediocre FT shooter (about 63% for his career, 53% in FIBA U19 play)
- Pretty turnover prone. Averaged more TOs than assists in FIBA U19 play, for example.
- This is weight related, but he's very physically weak. Poor core strength hurts his shooting and finishing, and his paint defense.
All of this is super subject to change as I see more of him. College is going to be huge for him given a relatively small amount of pre-college data (I don't know his high school numbers, for example). -
03-26-2020, 03:29 AMPelicanidae
Speaking of super skinny, tall international players, I've seen a few people talking about Aleksej Pokusevski again, so I figured I would give my 2 cents.
I have big fear of missing out on Pokusevski :hihi:
He's very young, he won't be 19 until mid December, so that has to be kept in mind when discussing him. He plays in the Greek 2nd division, which is the same league Giannis played in before coming to the NBA, so while the competition is low, it's not unprecedented low.
There's so much potential there for him. He's 7'1, 200lbs soaking wet, but he's a legitimate ball handler and passer at that height. Can hit live dribble passes, skip passes, pocket passes. He has behind the back dribble moves, he can run the offense in transition, I've seen him operate as the PnR ball handler from time to time. 25%AST for a centre is really good, and that's where he was this last year, with a TOV% of only 15%, which isn't bad at all.
Poku with a behind the back dribble to get into the pnr, then the pocket pass. Pretty freaky skillset for his size pic.twitter.com/WMbeb3CRFz
— Ben Pfeifer (@Ben_Pfeifer_) March 26, 2020
He isn't a shooter right now, even though there are some great clips of him out there hitting them, but he's a 78% FT shooter and has decent enough mechanics to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if he became one within a few years. His willingness to take shots in game, including off movement and with pullups, is encouraging too; it's hard to become a better shooter if you just refuse to ever do it.
3%STL this year to go with 8.3%BLK, which is super encouraging for his defensive projections, and 34.9%DRB is just absurd. That wouldn't translate to the NBA at all, given the complete gap in competition and the fact that Pokusevski weighs so little that NBA bigs would just shove him around right now, but it's a great sign for his instincts and reading the ball off the rim. +19.5 net rating, 21.8 PER, this is all encouraging stuff.
I'm not saying he's a guaranteed star. He absolutely isn't. There is so much that could go wrong for him. Maybe his handle just doesn't translate against NBA defenses. Maybe he just never puts that weight on and it limits him hard. Maybe the shooting never really develops the way it could. Any of these things could happen; damn, all of these things could happen at once, and he could flame out of the NBA. But if all the factors fall into place; he becomes a decent shooter, puts on 25lbs, and the handle/passing translates, then wow. He could be kinda special.
He's not Giannis. But here's the comparison of Giannis' numbers in the same league as Pokusevski, per 36:
Giannis Antetokoumnpo Aleksej Pokusevski 17.1 points 16.7 points 8.5 rebounds 12.2 rebounds 2.5 assists 4.7 assists 1.2 steals 1.9 steals 1.8 blocks 2.8 blocks 46/31/72 shooting splits 40/32/78 shooting splits
I don't even really know what I'm saying. I'm not saying we desperately need to draft him, I'm not saying Langdon should sell the boat to acquire him. Nothing like that at all. I just feel like there's some potential in him that, if it all hits, in a few years we'll be looking back on and saying ''wow, how did he drop to #23'' or wherever he ends up going. -
03-26-2020, 03:47 AMPelicanidae
Aside from the catch block, handle in transition and touch finish, my favorite part of this Pokusevski sequence is how earlt his reaction to the drive was to help: pic.twitter.com/T5hwKS2LRl
— Ben Pfeifer (@Ben_Pfeifer_) March 26, 2020 -
03-26-2020, 05:39 AMMount ZionI have really liked what I have seen of him in videos. He seems to have the basic tools to make it in the NBA with projectable upside. But I can't shake that he looks like he could break if he tried to bang with some of the bigger NBA bodies. Hayes is thin, but Pokusevski looks anorexic to me. Just looking at their frames, Pokusevski looks like he might have trouble putting on positive weight, while Sotto's frame appears to be one that would naturally add weight with strength training. I could be wrong though. However, while Sotto seems to be athletic for a super tall guy, he isn't as fluid as Hayes or Pokusevski.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelicanidae
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03-26-2020, 07:03 AMPelicanidaeThat's my biggest worry with Pokusevski. I feel like the shooting will come, because the form is solid and the FT% is good, which are generally good indicators, but he's so thin that unless he can really pile on a good 20, 25, 30lbs, his ceiling will be fairly low in the NBA. He's skilled beyond his years, so really the question of drafting him or not is basically just if you think your strength and conditioning program can bulk him up somewhat.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zombiewoof
I think you're right when you say that Sotto might have a better frame than Pokusevski for adding weight, but I also agree with you that Sotto has a much lower level of fluidity to his movement, and that's the kind of thing where I'm not sure that adding weight would actually help him with. He'd have to make sure to invest a ton of time into flexibility and hip mobility exercises to prevent stiffness coming from more muscle.
I get this huge feeling that someone is going to draft Pokusevski at like, the #24 spot or something, then just have him eating and lifting like a madman for 2 years and then he'll end up being some top 40 player :hihi: and everyone will be running around asking why the hell we didn't draft him. Totally could be wrong because of all the questions that are absolutely valid, but I just have that gut vibe from his pure skillset and abilities. -
03-26-2020, 10:06 AMMount Zion
If the Pelicans keep all of their picks, which I doubt, I can really see TL's international scouting chops coming into play. Assuming they hold the draft without more individual workouts, teams will be making picks based on what they have already seen from these players. I can easily see the lottery pick being made for a depth/development player for the 2020-2021 season, then using the second round picks on draft-and-stash guys.
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03-26-2020, 10:15 AMMount Zion
One other note. If the Pelicans are drafting in the 12/13 spot, there is a decent chance that all of the guys that would be favorites here will have been selected when the Pels are on the clock. Faced with taking a player ranked in that neighborhood, but that isn't a fit or isn't someone they really want, I wouldn't mind at all if they took a player that may not be ranked as high, but can provide what they need. Specifically, I have been thinking Aaron Nesmith or Saddiq Bey could be good backups for Ingram, which I feel is a primary need.
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03-26-2020, 11:41 AMMichaelMcNamaraI hate drafting for need. Especially in an era when you are drafting 19 or 20 year olds and they won't reach their peak for 4-6 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zombiewoof
Why draft for your 2020-21 roster when these guys won't be really good until 2024 at the earliest, and the roster will likely be much different then? And even the players who are the same will be different players in 4-6 years.
Go back and watch any draft and you will be flabbergasted when a team takes X guy over Y guy, and you will just scream WHY??!?? .... and then invariably they will show the current rosters and that X guy fills a need. But, because you know the future, you know that roster looks much different 3 years later.
Seriously, go watch any old draft and that will happen numerous times. Never, ever, ever, ever based on current roster need. Always take the guy you think will be the best player -
03-26-2020, 03:06 PMPelicanidaeNew additions (as always, the link still goes to the fully updated list of all names)Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelicanidae
23) Aaron Nesmith - Vanderbilt - Sophomore
24) Jalen Crutcher - Dayton - Junior
25) Jay Scrubb - John A. Logan - JUCO
26) Kenyon Martin Jr - IMG - High School
27) Malik Fitts - St. Mary's - Junior
28) Naji Marshall - Xavier - Junior
29) Obi Toppin - Dayton - Sophomore
30) Onyeka Okongwu - USC - Freshman
31) Patrick Williams - FSU - Freshman
32) Ryan Daly - St Joseph's - Junior -
03-26-2020, 06:06 PMPelicanidaeJust saw this, so I figured I'd post it to justify my appreciation of Riller as a 2nd round prospect.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelicanidae
List of players under 6'6 to have a USG of at least 32%, manage to hit at least 60% TS, and still maintain a STL% of at least 2.5, since 2008:
Stephen Curry
Damian Lillard
James Harden
Grant Riller
That's it.
Grant is not near their level as a prospect, for a couple of reasons. The biggest one is probably shooting. Curry was a 41% career college shooter from 3, Harden 37.5%, and Lillard 39%; Riller is a career 35% shooter from 3. Now, granted, he did shoot 39.8% his second year, and is at 36% this year, and has improved as a FT shooter every year of his college career (he's at about 83% right now, which is very strong), but still, it's something they had at will that Riller really doesn't have down as a secure, guaranteed skill.
Second biggest difference is probably playmaking. Curry, Lillard, and Harden are different levels of playmaker, but I think it's clear that they're all better than Riller is. He doesn't suck, but he's fairly limited and I don't think he has a huge amount of 'invention' in his passing game; he can run set plays, but they're set plays, and his vision isn't great. He's behind all of those guys on that.
And then there's age, Riller is a 4 year college guy. Those guys were multi-year guys as well, but none of them went the full 4 years. Riller also has the lowest BPM out of the 4 players. Now, BPM is obviously not some guaranteed sign of quality, it has a lot of noise in it and it struggles to capture defense cleanly, but it's still worth noting.
So I'm definitely not saying Riller is a Harden/Lillard/Curry level prospect. He clearly is not. Absolutely not. But it's hard not to see him being at least a solid NBA player as long as he can maintain even mediocre shooting, and for a 2nd round prospect I'd love to take a swing on that. -
03-26-2020, 08:50 PMAusPelWhat does he mean they couldn't get anyone in for a workout for the number 4 pick?Quote:
Originally Posted by 13 - 3
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03-27-2020, 03:35 AMPelicanidaeI imagine he means that because the trade took place relatively late, it wasn't possible to organise for a bunch of players to come in and work our for the team before the draft.Quote:
Originally Posted by AusPel
Many teams will do that, where they'll invite guys over to do 1v1 workouts and stuff for the teams personnel to evaluate in person before the draft. But I can imagine we didn't, because we got the #1 pick so we knew it was going to be Zion, and then by the time we acquired #4, it was too late to set up and follow through. -
03-27-2020, 04:37 AMMount ZionI don't think I verbalized my hypothetical very well. I posed a scenario in which (1) the Pels would be drafting 12/13, (2) the players we on Pelicans Report have expressed a desire to draft are gone and (3) the players available at 12/13 are ranked by pundits -- not the Pelicans' braintrust -- as the next best players, but are not as appealing to the Pelicans front office. Using that scenario, I am projecting my personal opinion as to who the next best players may be without any actual knowledge of who Griff/Langdon like for that next tier of players. We won't know who they like, so I am speculating who might be in that next tier who could be a contributor on the team in 2020-2021.Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara
While I quite agree that you always take the guy you think will be the best player, our projections as to who that might be can be quite a bit different than the beliefs of the team. So there is no harm in me, as a fan, looking at the presumed roster, and cherry-picking a player that I believe will be in that next tier and hoping he is a possibility for the team I root for. I trust that the staff knows more than I do and will make their selections accordingly. We agree that you don't pass on the player you believe will be the better player because "Damn, we need a small forward", you also don't look at your board and see one player listed at 13 and another at 14 and just take player 13 without considering all factors. Otherwise you could take point guards with all of your selections, because "that's just how the draft fell."
If I really believed none of my draft picks would be any good for 3-4 years, I would just trade all of my picks for players in their third or fourth year (not really, but you get the point). Rookies can be contributors and that's all I would expect out of a pick in the range the Pels should pick this year. With a roster that has few possible openings for next year, I don't think it's unreasonable for THIS draft only, to think in terms of how their first rounder could get playing time and contribute to a playoff team. If a player's ability and value matches with that "need," then great. I never suggested that the Pelicans reach for a player that they don't have rated in the tier of players for their draft position. -
03-27-2020, 11:17 AMMichaelMcNamaraOur projections dont matter. The entire point of my post is that I will want the Pelicans to take the guy they project to be the best player over the next 10 years. Not who you think or who I think, who they thinkQuote:
Originally Posted by Zombiewoof
And many teams dont do that. They draft for current need/current roster fit. We dont have enough data yet on Langdon and Griffin to know what they will do. Although Griffin did push Oladipo down his board because he already had Kyrie and Waiters. Elevated Bennett, he admits, because of need and perceived upside
Personally, I would have several of the bigs projected at 12/13 over the wings and guards projected to be there, so yes I would take a Jalen Smith over a Devin Vessell, for instance
But my board doesnt matter. Nor does anybody on this boards. All I would ask of Langdon and Griffin is to be true to their board and throw out the 2020-21 roster and current need. The great front offices do that and I hope we have a great FO -
03-27-2020, 12:09 PMMount Zion
Hopefully Griffin learned from that mistake. We are in agreement that it doesn’t matter how we have players ranked and only the front office’s opinions matter.
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03-27-2020, 01:07 PMBlattman
I think there is one limit regarding the "you should always take the BPA" approach : it overlooks the fact that rookies need playing time to develop.
It will not be a problem if most coaches weren't reluctant to send their rookies in g-League and instead of letting their young players play only in the garbage time (Gentry is one of them). You can't blame them neither. When you're head coach, sending one of your player in g-league is losing one of your back-up plan in case of injury or bad night from one of your rotation player.
It's always hard for most people to forfeit present in order to preserve future.
So I think the possibilty of playing time should still be a factor (even if not the major one) for selecting a player in the draft. -
03-27-2020, 01:47 PMAs I See ItYou bring up a very significant point; I couldn't agree with you more.Quote:
Originally Posted by Blattman
Does anybody here really think that NAW is better today for sitting on the bench for a full year in New Orleans, instead of actually playing in Erie (G-League)? I believe he's lost a full year of development. In the case of Jaxson Hayes, neither his body, nor his grasp of the subtilties of basketball, had him prepared to play at the highest level on the planet. Again, I have to wonder why he wasn't developed in the G-League. The modern NBA player no longer enjoys the benefit of four years of 'seasoning' in college. That's why the G-League will play an increasingly significant role in the development of the 'pups' that are coming into the league in the future.
Further, we've all heard Griffin espouse upon the many benefits that Didi Louzada-Silva enjoyed from the time spent in the NBL in Australia, haven't we?
Though impossible to prove that NAW and Jax would have benefitted more from playing in the G-League; it likewise would be impossible to deny. -
03-27-2020, 02:12 PMPelicanidae
Some more draft declarees
33) Devon Daniels - NC State - Junior
34) DJ Funderburk - NC State - Junior
35) Fatts Russell - Rhode Island - Junior
36) Jordan Tucker - Butler - Junior
37) Parker Stewart - UT Martin - Junior
38) Saben Lee - Vanderbilt - Junior
39) Mason Jones - Arkansas - Junior
40) Killian Hayes - Ratiopharm ULM - International