2021 NBA Draft Discussion

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Originally Posted by DaPelFromHell

I just hope we end up with a worse record than Chicago, Toronto, & Sacramento to give us the 7th worst record in the league. Then get lucky in the lottery and end up with a top 5 pick. If we could come away with either Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Jalen Suggs, or Evan Mobley I would be ecstatic. We were tied with the 7th worst record in the league when we hit the lotto to get Zion, so Cade wouldn?t be totally out of the discussion. But I?m sure the lottery rules/odds have changed since then.

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I think the way the lottery works is you can only jump into the top 4, not top 5. I could be wrong though

Serious question -- shouldnt every fan of this team know every single thing about the draft lottery at this point?

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Originally Posted by HornetGuru

I think the way the lottery works is you can only jump into the top 4, not top 5. I could be wrong though

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Yes, this is the case.

I think the best case Scenario is 8th lottery slot.


The tankathon tie for 4/5/6 is wild. Raptors seems a lock for 7th.

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Originally Posted by Taker597

I think the best case Scenario is 8th lottery slot.


The tankathon tie for 4/5/6 is wild. Raptors seems a lock for 7th.

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Yeah I agree, and that's a 26% chance for a top 4 pick, compared to something like a 13% chance for where we are now. So a pretty significant jump. 7th is possible but it requires a very specific set of outcomes in the last stretch of games, whereas 8th has a little more wiggle room.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Yeah I agree, and that's a 26% chance for a top 4 pick, compared to something like a 13% chance for where we are now. So a pretty significant jump. 7th is possible but it requires a very specific set of outcomes in the last stretch of games, whereas 8th has a little more wiggle room.

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The 26% is a bit deceptive. It's like 6.4% per pick 1-4, but I get what you mean.

But the great thing about the 8th pick is that 6th-8th range is just insane chaos odds.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

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Originally Posted by Taker597

The 26% is a bit deceptive. It's like 6.4% per pick 1-4, but I get what you mean.

But the great thing about the 8th pick is that 6th-8th range is just insane chaos odds.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

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Yes, it's about 6% and some change per pick which, when all taken together, add up to a 26%ish chance at a top 4 pick. Not really sure what's deceptive about that, honestly. It's not like a said it's a 26% chance at the top pick or something, that would be wrong, but if you have a 6 point something % chance at one of four outcomes, then in any given random roll you have a 1/4 chance (ish) of getting one of those four outcomes. Maybe I'm misinterpreting.

You're right about chaos odds though. Right now the 8th pick belongs to Chicago (well, sort of, it's protected and they owe it to Orlando if it falls outside protection). If I roll 30 times, here are my outcomes:

- 1st x5
- 3rd x4
- 4th x5
- 8th x7
- 9th x8
- 10th

That's just one sample size of 30, which obviously has clear limitations, (I get a top 4 pick in almost 50% of these which is double the on-paper likelihood from that spot) but the potential range from 1st to 10th all appearing within a relatively small number of rolls, with near equal appearances of 1st, 4th, 7th, and 9th, just goes to show how much of a near random pick it can be.

By contrast, to compare it to a less volatile number, our current draft position as of today is 10th. If I do the exact same thing and roll 30 times, and see what happens to the 10th pick:

- 2nd x3
- 3rd x2
- 4th x2
- 10th x13
- 11th x10

In this, we get 10th or 11th in 23/30 rolls, and jump into the top 4 only 7 times in comparison to 14 times in the above sample (which again, actually tracks: moving up to 8th basically doubles the likelihood of a top 4 pick) and we just can't get 8th or 9th at all, which limits the range of upper end possible outcomes.

8th pick isn't the best, you'd prefer a legit top 4 pick (rolling the same 30 rolls for OKC, the team currently in 4th, delivers a top 4 pick in 18 of my 30 rolls, including the first overall pick 7 times, and never finished lower than the 7th overall pick), but it's so much better than 10th. Opens up a better chance at the top end picks, and puts a much more pleasant range of outcomes into the lower-end possibilities.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Yes, it's about 6% and some change per pick which, when all taken together, add up to a 26%ish chance at a top 4 pick. Not really sure what's deceptive about that, honestly. It's not like a said it's a 26% chance at the top pick or something, that would be wrong, but if you have a 6 point something % chance at one of four outcomes, then in any given random roll you have a 1/4 chance (ish) of getting one of those four outcomes. Maybe I'm misinterpreting.

You're right about chaos odds though. Right now the 8th pick belongs to Chicago (well, sort of, it's protected and they owe it to Orlando if it falls outside protection). If I roll 30 times, here are my outcomes:

- 1st x5
- 3rd x4
- 4th x5
- 8th x7
- 9th x8
- 10th

That's just one sample size of 30, which obviously has clear limitations, (I get a top 4 pick in almost 50% of these which is double the on-paper likelihood from that spot) but the potential range from 1st to 10th all appearing within a relatively small number of rolls, with near equal appearances of 1st, 4th, 7th, and 9th, just goes to show how much of a near random pick it can be.

By contrast, to compare it to a less volatile number, our current draft position as of today is 10th. If I do the exact same thing and roll 30 times, and see what happens to the 10th pick:

- 2nd x3
- 3rd x2
- 4th x2
- 10th x13
- 11th x10

In this, we get 10th or 11th in 23/30 rolls, and jump into the top 4 only 7 times in comparison to 14 times in the above sample (which again, actually tracks: moving up to 8th basically doubles the likelihood of a top 4 pick) and we just can't get 8th or 9th at all, which limits the range of upper end possible outcomes.

8th pick isn't the best, you'd prefer a legit top 4 pick (rolling the same 30 rolls for OKC, the team currently in 4th, delivers a top 4 pick in 18 of my 30 rolls, including the first overall pick 7 times, and never finished lower than the 7th overall pick), but it's so much better than 10th. Opens up a better chance at the top end picks, and puts a much more pleasant range of outcomes into the lower-end possibilities.

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Yeah, it's why I been pretty adament about deciding to tank two weeks ago. We badly need to get out of the 10-11 odds. Especially, the 10th pick having a 20% chance of hitting the 11th pick and shooting another team to the top 4 like a slingshot. I believe that's how the Lakers got the 4th pick. 10th seed 20% odds at 11th is a slingshot.


The highest slingshot odds from pick is the 8th pick. The 7th odd holder at 8th with whooping 34.1 and 20% for the 6th odd holder

The 6th picks odd are crazy, but I wouldn't call it a slingshot. It's just all chaos with the most potential to win it all.

It's really wild to me that the 6th lottery odd holder only has a 8.1% chance at its own pick.

I'm actually pretty excited. Griffin got Lottery luck on his side. Get 4th overall. I hope we keep the pick.

Each pick (1-4) is a stand alone pick. To say Chicago (as of now) has a 23.6% chance of landing a Top Four pick is incorrect and quite frankly, laughable. They actually have a 23.6 chances in 400(rounded) of landing in the top four (or 6.57%) when the lottery commences. Depending on who gets the first pick, the odds change because the denominator changes. The best possible outcome for Chicago to land the fourth pick would be for Teams 1. 2, and 3 to capture the top three picks (regardless of the order). In that case, Chicago would have 23.6 chances in 244 (rounded) of landing the fourth pick (or 10.78%).

If you care to check my numbers, go to Tankathon and add up the percentages (which are actually chances and not percentages) in the column entitled "Top 4" (that's where you get the 400 (rounded) figure.

Just for S&G's, you can add up the column that reads "No 1 OVR". You will find that it adds up to 100.

http://www.tankathon.com/

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Originally Posted by Taker597

Yeah, it's why I been pretty adament about deciding to tank two weeks ago. We badly need to get out of the 10-11 odds. Especially, the 10th pick having a 20% chance of hitting the 11th pick and shooting another team to the top 4 like a slingshot. I believe that's how the Lakers got the 4th pick. 10th seed 20% odds at 11th is a slingshot.


The highest slingshot odds from pick is the 8th pick. The 7th odd holder at 8th with whooping 34.1 and 20% for the 6th odd holder

The 6th picks odd are crazy, but I wouldn't call it a slingshot. It's just all chaos with the most potential to win it all.

It's really wild to me that the 6th lottery odd holder only has a 8.1% chance at its own pick.

I'm actually pretty excited. Griffin got Lottery luck on his side. Get 4th overall. I hope we keep the pick.

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Regardless of where you pick, for every team below your slotting that jumps into the top four, you drop one spot. If a team above you jumps into the top four, there is no effect on your slotting.

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Originally Posted by Taker597

Yeah, it's why I been pretty adament about deciding to tank two weeks ago. We badly need to get out of the 10-11 odds. Especially, the 10th pick having a 20% chance of hitting the 11th pick and shooting another team to the top 4 like a slingshot. I believe that's how the Lakers got the 4th pick. 10th seed 20% odds at 11th is a slingshot.

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I hope we keep the pick if it's top 3. If it's below that, I'm okay with trading it if it's a good trade; obviously I don't want to get robbed, but if we're including it in a move to acquire a superstar or a top 25 player then I'm obviously much more okay with it.

I think the only move that would really annoy me is if we traded a good pick in an awful deal (but that's fair, I think a team making bad trades annoys everyone) or if we somehow landed the #1 pick and traded it for like, Myles Turner lmao. That would put me in a pretty thunderous mood.

If you trust Mac, he’s said anything short of 2 and we’re almost certainly trading for Beal.

But I feel like life is too fluid. Something else can and will change between such an event and when that information was to be believed originally.

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Originally Posted by Eman5805

If you trust Mac.

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I do not.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Serious question -- shouldnt every fan of this team know every single thing about the draft lottery at this point?

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If you know share your thoughts? But you don ‘t know because a lot rides on the Lakers and where they fall at end of season.

Beal is not going anywhere if Durant somehow finds his way to DC

If you trade the pick, you’d best make damn sure it’s a top player. We are way too early in this cycle to waste potential on a mediocre role player. I fully expect us to make the worst move possible.

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Originally Posted by JJackisangry

If you trade the pick, you’d best make damn sure it’s a top player. We are way too early in this cycle to waste potential on a mediocre role player. I fully expect us to make the worst move possible.

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Overall I've been fairly fine with Griffs moves up to this point. Some disagreements here or there, sure, but generally it's been okay and I've understood the game plan.

Right now I am getting a little bit of ''here's where it goes wrong'' dread, not going to lie. Could just be me being over-anxious, that's possible, but I can't deny the feeling is there.

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Originally Posted by Eman5805

If you trust Mac, he’s said anything short of 2 and we’re almost certainly trading for Beal.

But I feel like life is too fluid. Something else can and will change between such an event and when that information was to be believed originally.

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Did not say that. Said that they will TRY to trade for guys. But i also said that i dont think a top 30 player will be moved this offseason. But they arent trying to add another 19 yr old. And for those who dont believe me, go ask your favorite local blogger or sports reporter. Its the worst kept secret ever

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Overall I've been fairly fine with Griffs moves up to this point. Some disagreements here or there, sure, but generally it's been okay and I've understood the game plan.

Right now I am getting a little bit of ''here's where it goes wrong'' dread, not going to lie. Could just be me being over-anxious, that's possible, but I can't deny the feeling is there.

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The only really safe spot is Griff is during the draft with Langdon compare to his FA stuff. I don't know who is in charge of his pro scouting.

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Originally Posted by 13 - 3

If you know share your thoughts? But you don ‘t know because a lot rides on the Lakers and where they fall at end of season.

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No, it doesnt. You clearly dont understand the pick even though you are on here all the time and it has been explained 100000 times

The only way we get the pick this year is if the Lakers lose the play in twice, miss the playoffals and then take the less than 5 percent chance to jump into the top 4 in the lotto. If ALL that happens, then we get the pick. So, basically, we arent getting the pick

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Did not say that. Said that they will TRY to trade for guys. But i also said that i dont think a top 30 player will be moved this offseason. But they arent trying to add another 19 yr old. And for those who dont believe me, go ask your favorite local blogger or sports reporter. Its the worst kept secret ever

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Heh. If I was put on a witness stand, I'd have sworn you did.

Da well.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Overall I've been fairly fine with Griffs moves up to this point. Some disagreements here or there, sure, but generally it's been okay and I've understood the game plan.

Right now I am getting a little bit of ''here's where it goes wrong'' dread, not going to lie. Could just be me being over-anxious, that's possible, but I can't deny the feeling is there.

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It already went there with the overpaying (asset and money wise) for Adams

Before that there was nothing gone wrong

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Did not say that. Said that they will TRY to trade for guys. But i also said that i dont think a top 30 player will be moved this offseason. But they arent trying to add another 19 yr old. And for those who dont believe me, go ask your favorite local blogger or sports reporter. Its the worst kept secret ever

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Not hard to make that logical leap looking at 3 2nd year guys on the roster right now and 2 rookies.

Still though I hate this mentality. You need to go into every draft listening to your scouting department. If the value isnt there, only then do you consider trading out. Barring yourself from drafting someone you believe in because you have too many young players already is as stupid as it gets.

They can have their opinions but the objective data will tell you that you have a less than 20 percent chance of that guy becoming a long term valuable player for you - or ever truly helping you win for that matter. Go back to any draft, literally any one and count the number of guys who helped the team who drafted them win games over a replacement level amount. Do that and this whole illusion you have been sold on the draft fades away and you see it for what it really is

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

They can have their opinions but the objective data will tell you that you have a less than 20 percent chance of that guy becoming a long term valuable player for you - or ever truly helping you win for that matter. Go back to any draft, literally any one and count the number of guys who helped the team who drafted them win games over a replacement level amount. Do that and this whole illusion you have been sold on the draft fades away and you see it for what it really is

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Again. As low odds as that may be, show me a small market contender in the modern era who hasn't built their team through the draft. And most of the teams that have done that right now, Utah, Phoenix, Denver, Milwaukee have gotten massive value out of late lottery picks. Guys like Chris Paul arent choosing to playing to here.

You just have to hope you're in that 20%. Trading out gives you a player just as likely to be inconsequential. Everyone points to the Jrue trade and how much better Jrue was than the 2 players that were drafted in those spots. Quick to point out how big of a win that was for the Pelicans. But Jrue helped them win all of 1 playoff series. It was still a better move at the time to just take the tiny odds you get lucky. And then use your cap space you use on Jrue to get more lotto tickets.

As grim as that may be, it's our reality.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

They can have their opinions but the objective data will tell you that you have a less than 20 percent chance of that guy becoming a long term valuable player for you - or ever truly helping you win for that matter. Go back to any draft, literally any one and count the number of guys who helped the team who drafted them win games over a replacement level amount. Do that and this whole illusion you have been sold on the draft fades away and you see it for what it really is

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That would be a terrible defeatist mentality for your scouting department to take. If everyone took that approach, no one would hit on the superstars.

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

That would be a terrible defeatist mentality for your scouting department to take. If everyone took that approach, no one would hit on the superstars.

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That doesnt mean to never draft. It just means to be realistic and know your odds in all directions. I know we wasted him but you trade Nerlens Noel and Elfrid Payton for Jrue every time. Nothing always works. Or never works. Be open to all paths and know the true odds, not the wishful thinking ones. All fans love the idea of an 8th pick and hate the idea of trading it for a solid starter. But the history does not support that the pick will work out more often than the solid starter. Even when you factor in salary

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

That would be a terrible defeatist mentality for your scouting department to take. If everyone took that approach, no one would hit on the superstars.

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Basically my take here.

Is it true that most players picked in the draft don't become superstars? Of course, there aren't 400 superstars in the NBA.

But if you have, say, the 7th pick and you look at the talent available and you see someone who you really believe in as a borderline all-star or legit all-star, or hell, even a potential all-NBA guy, and you really believe that and you've scouted hard and watched the film and you have the stats, trading that away for a guy you absolutely know will never be an all-NBA guy (like, say, Larry Nance Jr, for example) is just pure pessimism at best and cutting off your own nose to spite your face at worse.

Sure if you get to the 7th pick and you don't really see anyone you believe in that much and you have an offer there for someone you know will be good, you take that trade, it's all about the value, but as long as there's someone you truly believe in on the board you should take them.

I dont fully agree. Especially with most of the prospects npw being 19 yr olds who often have fine NBA careers but dont really get winning basketball until their mid to late 20s- and on thier 3rd or 4th team.

Very very few GMs and coaches have the job security to invest 5 or 6 years into a Cam Payne and wait for him to become what he has become this year. And there is an argument as to if he would ever become that for his first team.

My belief is that a vast majority of these guys need to be himmbled to eventually accept their role. That wont happen with their first team. Guys who are taken top 10, 15, 20 were likely the best HS players in their state. They were THE MAN on their college team. They arent going to accept their fate as good role player at the next level until they have no other choice. So, 20 or so guys in each draft will be good or better but very very few will be that for the team who drafted them. And that is the part of the equation everyone misses

The REAL debate here is:

Will a prospect become who he will become? Or, is there a large variance for most of these guys and their outcome is largely dependent on several factors, most of which includes where they go?

I believe in the latter. And I also believe that many guys simply can't/wont succeed on their first team for the reasons I listed above. I know many believe otherwise, but I think THATS the real debate here

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

The REAL debate here is:

Will a prospect become who he will become? Or, is there a large variance for most of these guys and their outcome is largely dependent on several factors, most of which includes where they go?

I believe in the latter. And I also believe that many guys simply can't/wont succeed on their first team for the reasons I listed above. I know many believe otherwise, but I think THATS the real debate here

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I can see it that way. I guess the issue is that for instance, the 7th pick may turn out to be nothing more than a role player or could be a superstar. Whereas the value of the type of veteran a team could get for the 7th pick is typically not much more than a solid bench player or part time starter. Some would prefer to roll the dice on the potential rather than the known.

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

I can see it that way. I guess the issue is that for instance, the 7th pick may turn out to be nothing more than a role player or could be a superstar. Whereas the value of the type of veteran a team could get for the 7th pick is typically not much more than a solid bench player or part time starter. Some would prefer to roll the dice on the potential rather than the known.

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I would say most/all fans would rather roll the dice. Because they dont see the real odds and will always believe in their evaluation of who they like and "NO WAY IS THAT GUY GONNA BE WORSE THAN JERAMI GRANT"

But again, objective history says they will be wrong more times than right, as will scouts, as will even the best GMs

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I would say most/all fans would rather roll the dice. Because they dont see the real odds and will always believe in their evaluation of who they like and "NO WAY IS THAT GUY GONNA BE WORSE THAN JERAMI GRANT"

But again, objective history says they will be wrong more times than right, as will scouts, as will even the best GMs

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I get that.

I know you have indicated that you think they will trade this year's pick if it is not right near the top (top 2-3 I guess). Given some of the names that have been floated as guesses on the board, I guess this could be the offseason where he attempts to utilize the "war chest" to get the 3rd star next to BI and Zion. If not, you seem to think he may go for more of the Nance/Grant type of supporting player. Is that accurate?

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

I get that.

I know you have indicated that you think they will trade this year's pick if it is not right near the top (top 2-3 I guess). Given some of the names that have been floated as guesses on the board, I guess this could be the offseason where he attempts to utilize the "war chest" to get the 3rd star next to BI and Zion. If not, you seem to think he may go for more of the Nance/Grant type of supporting player. Is that accurate?

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They will try to trade it for a big piece first. I think they will fail. Then, I think they will focus on moving the pick plus Bledsoe for a quality player. But that is not where they stop. They will do that because the calculus will be that they already have enough picks and young guys to trade for the big piece when it does come available. So, you get Jerami Grant or Nance or whoever now and then when you get Beal, your team is really ready to go. Or they think Grant will have more trade value in February than Bledsoe and whoever we drafted at 10 in that next move.

I think where people get confused is that they think I am saying Griff will move Bledsoe and a pick for a good starter and then he is done. He will say "this is our team, lets go!" -- No, it would only happen after he strikes out on Beal, and KAT, and Sabonis, etc and then go...okay, lets go get the B player now, be better, have a less volatile asset and then when one of those guys is available in February, we pounce and are already 28-19, as opposed to 19-28, and then we REALLY make a run.

Personally, I am in agreement with most of you for the record. I would draft a guy this year, make smaller moves around the edges, do a sign and trade with Lonzo where we get a meh pick or two and a big exception, and go into the season with that. History says you are going to get much better value being a buyer in season than you would buying in the summer. I dont think any really good players will be moved this summer, and if they are the price will be enormous. But those same level of players will be available in February for 80 percent the price. Thats when I would make my big move. It means going into the season with Bledsoe, but I could stomach 40-45 games of that to get a better player at a better price

MM I know you're a big value guy, so let me put it this way. Not saying anything you don't already know, just trying to frame the argument.

draft picks are highly valued even in NBA circles not just because of the potential, but because it's really the only reliable source of cost controlled talent as well as cost controlled assets. You can't just compare pick 10 to Jerami Grant, you've got to compare pick 10 plus future cap space/flexibility to Jerami Grant. Unless you're getting a surefire ALL NBA guy or are just one piece away from turning the corner trading away equivalent value in potential is a difficult trigger to pull. And that player loses value the closer they get to the end of their contract nearly just as quickly as the draft pick does. The Bulls got Vuc for a reasonable price and I still think that was the wrong move for them. They were too worried about accelerating their timetable with Zach Lavine needing a new deal that they went too far imo.

Maybe Grant still wins, maybe he doesn't, but you've got to listen to your scouting department to determine just how highly they value pick 10 before you do anything. It just depends on how confident you are in the current core, or a future big trade to materialize to roll the dice. I'm sold on either, so I'd like to try and roll two 6s, however slim odds that may be, and just hope to fill the gaps with good between the margins moves that could also net positive value.

Personally I'm not sure how environment impacts a players development. It's impossible to ever really know. There are plenty of examples that you could use to make your argument both ways, maybe so-and-so player was impacted by playing for a bad coach on a young team with other development priorities, or maybe it would have taken him a long time to learn how not to suck wherever he went.

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Originally Posted by Pelifan

MM I know you're a big value guy, so let me put it this way. Not saying anything you don't already know, just trying to frame the argument.

draft picks are highly valued even in NBA circles not just because of the potential, but because it's really the only reliable source of cost controlled talent as well as cost controlled assets. You can't just compare pick 10 to Jerami Grant, you've got to compare pick 10 plus future cap space/flexibility to Jerami Grant. Unless you're getting a surefire ALL NBA guy or are just one piece away from turning the corner trading away equivalent value in potential is a difficult trigger to pull. And that player loses value the closer they get to the end of their contract nearly just as quickly as the draft pick does. The Bulls got Vuc for a reasonable price and I still think that was the wrong move for them. They were too worried about accelerating their timetable with Zach Lavine needing a new deal that they went too far imo.

Maybe Grant still wins, maybe he doesn't, but you've got to listen to your scouting department to determine just how highly they value pick 10 before you do anything. It just depends on how confident you are in the current core, or a future big trade to materialize to roll the dice. I'm sold on either, so I'd like to try and roll two 6s, however slim odds that may be, and just hope to fill the gaps with good between the margins moves that could also net positive value.

Personally I'm not sure how environment impacts a players development. It's impossible to ever really know. There are plenty of examples that you could use to make your argument both ways, maybe so-and-so player was impacted by playing for a bad coach on a young team with other development priorities, or maybe it would have taken him a long time to learn how not to suck wherever he went.

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You have to also factor in your pillars on your roster. I think the 10th pick is far more valuable to the Pistons right now than it is to the Pelicans. Because they arent looking for a pillar any more, nor might they have the ability to develop him in the same way that a franchise with no pressure and a ton of shots and usage to give him can.

Look, if you start with the conclusion you want, you can make the argument on either side with valid examples - as you said. There is no absolute right way. If there were, every team would do it. I am just relaying what the vast majority around and inside the franchise every day think we will do. I said what I would do, so dont get the two confused. You dont have to sway me on the path of keeping the pick and shooting for the stars

Two economists were walking down the street and one said, "Look, there's a $100 bill on the sidewalk!" The other said, "That's absurd. If a $100 bill was on the sidewalk, then someone would have picked it up." And yet, sometimes there is a $100 bill on the sidewalk and sometimes there is a Mano Ginobili available in the second round. "Use the pick" CAN be better than "Trade the pick". OTOH the team could get the next Anthony Bennett, Greg Oden or Len Bias. What's better? Nobody knows.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Personally, I am in agreement with most of you for the record. I would draft a guy this year, make smaller moves around the edges, do a sign and trade with Lonzo where we get a meh pick or two and a big exception, and go into the season with that. History says you are going to get much better value being a buyer in season than you would buying in the summer. I dont think any really good players will be moved this summer, and if they are the price will be enormous. But those same level of players will be available in February for 80 percent the price. Thats when I would make my big move. It means going into the season with Bledsoe, but I could stomach 40-45 games of that to get a better player at a better price

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You should be good since you announced going on the record....

Any way we can trade up to the top 2-3 and draft Suggs?

What?s more likely to happen...

1. We luck out in the lottery and get a top 4 pick and keep it
2. We get the 10th pick and keep it
3. We get the 10th pick and trade it along with future firsts for Player A
4. We get the 10th pick and trade it along with future picks to move into the top 6

Obviously option 2 is the most likely but for some reason I have a gut feeling this won?t be the case.

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Originally Posted by HornetGuru

What?s more likely to happen...

1. We luck out in the lottery and get a top 4 pick and keep it
2. We get the 10th pick and keep it
3. We get the 10th pick and trade it along with future firsts for Player A
4. We get the 10th pick and trade it along with future picks to move into the top 6

Obviously option 2 is the most likely but for some reason I have a gut feeling this won?t be the case.

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I wish the NBA draft were more like the NFL one. But it seems like the only time trades like that get made is when the draft overall isn't very sound. I just want us to be at least 8th in the running. Can that still happen? I feel like 8th to the top 4 is feasible.

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Originally Posted by Eman5805

I wish the NBA draft were more like the NFL one. But it seems like the only time trades like that get made is when the draft overall isn't very sound. I just want us to be at least 8th in the running. Can that still happen? I feel like 8th to the top 4 is feasible.

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We’re currently 10th, while being a half game behind the kings and 1.5 games behind Chicago

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Originally Posted by HornetGuru

What?s more likely to happen...

1. We luck out in the lottery and get a top 4 pick and keep it
2. We get the 10th pick and keep it
3. We get the 10th pick and trade it along with future firsts for Player A
4. We get the 10th pick and trade it along with future picks to move into the top 6

Obviously option 2 is the most likely but for some reason I have a gut feeling this won?t be the case.

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Let's say Minnesota get top 3 pick. Would you trade BI for Beasley, Culver, McDaniels and top 3 pick to draft Suggs? I would.

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Originally Posted by HoustonPelicans

Let's say Minnesota get top 3 pick. Would you trade BI for Beasley, Culver, McDaniels and top 3 pick to draft Suggs? I would.

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From a value standpoint we would get better value from that trade, but we would also be giving away one of our better players for more developing prospects which would set the time line back even more. I would only want to trade Ingram if it were for a top 2 pick, which wouldn’t happen, or trade him along with another pick for an even better player. Like trading Ingram and picks for Tatum, which I would do.

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Originally Posted by HoustonPelicans

Let's say Minnesota get top 3 pick. Would you trade BI for Beasley, Culver, McDaniels and top 3 pick to draft Suggs? I would.

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It would certainly be a record of sorts.....

All Star Anthony Davis traded away before the 19-20 season.
All Star Jrue Holiday traded away before the 20-21 season.
All Star Brandon Ingram traded away before the 21-22 season?

That would be three All Stars in three years who were shipped out.

Yep, our farm system status is alive, well, and thriving

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Originally Posted by As I See It

It would certainly be a record of sorts.....

All Star Anthony Davis traded away before the 19-20 season.
All Star Jrue Holiday traded away before the 20-21 season.
All Star Brandon Ingram traded away before the 21-22 season?

That would be three All Stars in three years who were shipped out.

Yep, our farm system status is alive, well, and thriving

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Lol I get what you're saying. I just see Suggs as a franchise PG. He reminds me so much of CP and Lowry but bigger and more athletic. He's a winner. More of a winner than BI. I think NAW/Zion/Hayes would enjoy going to battle with him every night. I believe he would transform the mentality of this team the second he walks through the door.

This would be one of the few trades I would consider moving BI for.....

http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yatuwezf

Trading a 23 year old, All Star, who can, and does, score at all three levels, for an untested rookie is way to rich for my tastes.


Bled, Kira
Beal, NAW
Kispert (through draft), Naji
Zion, Markkanen (sign and trade)
JAX, Olynyk (in free agency)

Move both Hart and Adams

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Originally Posted by HornetGuru

From a value standpoint we would get better value from that trade, but we would also be giving away one of our better players for more developing prospects which would set the time line back even more. I would only want to trade Ingram if it were for a top 2 pick, which wouldn’t happen, or trade him along with another pick for an even better player. Like trading Ingram and picks for Tatum, which I would do.

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True. I would be willing to set the timeline back for Suggs. I actually believe he would move the timeline up. I think he's a bigger impact player than BI.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by As I See It

Trading a 23 year old, All Star, who can, and does, score at all three levels, for an untested rookie is way to rich for my tastes.

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The thing is once that rookie is a proven commodity that trade is no longer available. Like we probably could've traded Jrue to move up and take Lamelo, no longer an option. Seattle traded Ray Allen for Durant. Lakers traded Divac for Kobe. Once those players prove themselves that trade is no longer available. Kind of gotta trust your scouts and instincts to make the move. I would roll the dice on Suggs. I think he's better than BI when it comes to winning. Especially if we can get Beasley, Culver and McDaniels with him.