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It's definately rapidly strengthening. When you look at the satellite, it looks even stronger than the NHC says it is. We still have plenty of time to watch this. It doesn't look like it'll have a big effect on the gulf coast at this point, but it's certainly something to watch and something to keep the weather enthusiasts occupied. Just keep an eye on it for now.
Well,Im in Austin right now and WAS going to leave Friday or Saturday.If this thing is projected to be in the middle of the GOM sometime next week,im waiting this one out as well.
according to weather.com, it is now a Cat 4
Yeah, and it took 6 hours to go from a Cat 1. to a Cat 4. UNREAL. Let's hope this thing doesn't get into the Gulf, but then that would be bad news for FLA or the Southeast. Seems like these tracks for Hanna and maybe Ike want to turn the storms up towards the Carolinas. I wonder if that High pressure system is still sitting over Florida or between us and Florida. If so, that should keep the storms away from us. We need to get through this hurricane season WITHOUT another storm. We have a good solid month to go of peak hurricane season. :(Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocket Man
Here's Ike's current tracking map. Notice how it gets caught up in the Bahamas after taking an early NW turn. If this map can hold, maybe it will follow Hanna and stay in the Atlantic.
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/im...00809_5day.gif
Will not get in the gulf, says Carl Arrendono(WWL)
While I appreciate the post,bob breck said katrina wasnt coming here until the last minute and gustav was going to pass to our east.Quote:
Originally Posted by Terrace Fan
I have a hard time believing ANY meteorologist that wants to tell me where a storm will or wont be in 6-8 days.As long as there are models that put it in the gulf,I will watch it until it does not come here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktulu909
Totally off-base what the cone is showing TWC/Underground. Florida maybe getting both ends of this.
While that may be the case,the GFDL and HWRF models seem like they want to get this thing into the GOM.Those 2 models are 2 of the more reliable ones available.
I didnt post the Euro to state that it was what was going to happen,I just wanted folks to know that no matter who tells you what,these systems are impossible to predict with any certainty from as far out as this one is.
He didn't exactly say that. He said it's not likely to get into the gulf, that a front heading for the east coast this weekend would pick it up and turn it north. He also said we need to watch it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Terrace Fan
Not exactly "will not get in the gulf."
its a dude, we get the chick hurricanes, look out for josephine.
And in typical "chick" fashion,no offense HunnyB,Josephine cant seem to get her **** together. ;)
I think they just created those models to torture you guys. ;)
It should catch a cold front coming through our area and go up the
East Coast. Even if it enters the GOM, it should still move East of here. At least that is what the guidance models are predicting and what local media is saying. I don't wish it on anyone, but, we don't need this system, AT ALL. Hopefully, in the next couple of weeks, we'll begin our fall pattern and get some fronts through here on a regular basis.
I'm hoping that fromt makes it in time - I'm not looking forward to doing this again and if it hits anywhere in the State, I don't know how those affected by Gustav are going to be able to handle this.
Not leaving, I will grin and bear it if necessary. I've been camping before.
FL Keys, according to the Weather channel, will be evacuated this weekend. Tourists have to start exiting at 8 AM Sat.
I don't think anyone in Louisiana or Mississippi should consider themselves out of the threat of this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktulu909
I have to say that I can't believe this. I felt pretty confident that this storm would not enter the Gulf. Now almost all the models have it going in the Gulf. Goddammit. :hot:
Ah no, this doesn't look good.
If it does hit NOLA, when would it be expected to hit?
And what has happened to Hanna? Is that still a threat to NOLA?
Hanna is going up the East Coast. I think the long-term predictions still have this in the eastern Gulf, but we can plainly see that not all models agree with that. 4 models currently have this getting into or very near the central Gulf. I don't like that.
If it would hit NOLA, it appears it would be Thursday the 11th or Friday the 12th if you approximate the projections
Sigh.... as of right now...two tracks are going to the west, two tracks are hittin the florida panhandle and two are going straight for us......
I can't believe we might have to deal with another storm in 2 weeks. Just unbelievable.
2 Weeks???? try again.We would be looking at a week from today.Quote:
Originally Posted by Korrbg20
Well, I made my evacuation plans.
I'm not sure if it was posted here or on one of the weather boards I've been reading, but someone had a great idea that I wish I could do...be a reverse-snow bird. So many from the North come South during the harshest months of winter. I'd sure love to be able to spend August and most of September up North.
I hate hurricanes.
:mad:
What happened to the front that was suppose to help us?
probably stalled out and may move back as a warm front. Either way, it could pull the storm towards it.
This map has changed. Yesterday, 4 models had this heading into or towards the central gulf. now some of the models seem to have it curling up off of the west side of Florida. All we can do is keep an eye.
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/dat...0809_model.gif
Still a fluid situation. The synoptic environment that will steer this storm next week is not yet clear. The front is very much a player. The only question is its strength. Some models have it stronger and pulling the storm to the north and recurving it. Some models have it weaker and not picking up the storm, only maybe enough to change the track to a more NW direction toward the central Gulf Coast.
Most of the analysis at the Gulf Coast Weather website indicate that models might be in agreement on a target landfall area by Monday/Tuesday.
Buzz on Gulf Coast Weather is that the models are shifting west again and settling on a Louisiana landfall, especially the respected ensemble models the NHC uses to determine its forecast track. It is the belief over there that the NHC's 4pm advisory will shift the track more west, with Louisiana in the crosshairs for a Friday landfall.
Still 6 days out and plenty of time to watch and hope for changes.
But the environmental patterns are shaping up to include a very strong ridge that will push the storm west to the central gulf before the trough pulls it north.
Not a good scenario.
Terrible. What's the link to that site again?
http://stormboard.proboards79.com/
It is a message board. However, several of the regular posters are professional, non-television meteorologists (ndg, Wyatt Erminger, skysummit and a few others). Several others, including the owner, Zack Fradella, are meteorology students. Also, John Gumm (WWL alum), Brad Panovich (WWL alum), Laura Buchtel (current WWL) and Ron Smiley (current WDSU) post information over there.
There are a lot of "wishcasters" and panic-mongers. You really have to get a feel for who is making the post, because a lot of it is crap. But the raw data that they have available and post is very good. And the interpretation of it by those named above and how that will affect the NHC updates and tracks is very good.
Ultimately I use the NHC and official sources to make my evac decisions. But I can generally get a heads up on where things are trending on that site.
Ike now back to a C4 with winds approximately at 135 MPH at the 4PM CDT report.
If this storm comes our way, then half of the city will stay because they love it here and were very frustrated, like many, at Ray Nagin's apocalyptic speech prior to Hurricane Gustav. The other half will leave and never come back because they're tired of these storms. If Ike comes our way, it would be absolutely the worst case scenario for the city. People have already evacuated once this year and this is really getting old. I am frustrated and angry at all of this. It is nothing but a financial and emotional burden.
Nevertheless, continue to monitor this system. I'm afraid to say this, but we need to start preparing for a major storm, again.
As of now I'm staying, I'm told central LA/MISS still has no power, so if I going to be miserable I will be miserable in my home. I have been camping before, I believe I can make it a week or so with no electricity. Add to that the Miss. State troopers don't know what they are doing! The people I have spoken too that stayed are glad they stayed. If our neighborhood teams up after the storm we should be fine..
DON'T GO TO B.R EITHER.!!!!!!!
It is really making a lot of people, including myself, wonder if it is worth living here or if it is time to just get the hell out of this city.
I couln't agree more. That's what I've been saying this whole time.Quote:
Originally Posted by HORNETSFAN
It's concerning, but, I haven't wondered about leaving.Quote:
Originally Posted by Who Dat033
Go west...You deal with earthquakes and experts say they are due for a big one. Go to the midwest deal with Tornados. Go to the North and northeast and you to contend with Blizzards.
Its mother nature, you can't escape it!
Hurricanes are annoying---I'll say that, but, I'm really too big of a Saints and Hornets fan to leave. :D
Quote:
Originally Posted by alon504
true, I'll leave if they leave.
True, but the chance of serious earthquakes, tornadoes, and blizzards is unlikely wherever you may live. Louisiana just seems to be a magnet for powerful hurricanes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Terrace Fan
It's not even just the fact that we are a magnet for powerful hurricanes. Our government is so incapable of getting things done. We will be recovering from Katrina, Gustov, and probably Ike for the next 20 years.
Well, the latest track takes it further west, somewhere near the TX/LA border with many of the models showing a westward turn maybe a 100 miles or so off the LA coast
Hope that is a trend and not just a pendulum shift in the models. It's frustrating when a series of model runs shifts one way, giving you hope, only to have them shift back six hours later. The models kinda did that while honing in on South Central LA with Gustav...back and forth....good and bad. Blah.
I'm telling myself that I'm going to check a few more sites about Ike, then I'm going to bed and will forget about it until after the Saints game tomorrow. I'm going to enjoy some football.
After that I'll check. And if it's still a credible threat, I'll work out some rough evac plans for mid-week.
Such is life in New Orleans....
I think government performed well during the evac. The doomsday message by Nagin was intended primarily for those refusing to leave the city. At the time of the statement, Gustav was a Cat. 4 that blew into Cuba with Max wind gusts at 212 mph. Now I challenge anyone to tell me that they would have rode that out here. No one predicted that the storm would weaken as it did upon leaving Cuba.
All that said, the return has been a bit more troublesome than the evacuation in terms of government and infrastructure. FEMA has been less than stellar - no surprise there. No other city has had to empty itself 2 times in 3 years, 3 if you count Rita as well. This could be the 2nd emptying of NOLA in 2 weeks. I can see why people would question whether it was worth it. But mother nature is what it is. It's no one's fault that these storms come our way. In the meantime, we have to get out of harm's way and hope the Federal government finally hears our pleas and does something about hurricane protection in South La.
I have relatives that tried makeing reservations for Ike to the hotels they were staying in for Gustov but they were all booked already. I don't know if I can take another evacuation or comming home to no power again. I was very lucky for this storm. I'm not ready to push my luck again.
This thing keeps getting pushed further and further west with each model run. I just hope that by the time they figure out whats going on, and predict the northern turn, it's already moved west enough to hit Texas.
Same here, the hotels are already booking up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajun_Hornet
20 hours in the car evacuating for Gustav. I don't have it in me to do that again.
3 models now have the storm hitting west of La. One model seems to aim for the La./Tx border, one model has it coming almost up Barataria Bay and the last model has it coming up Mobile/Pensacola.
Still to early to tell; still need to watch closely.