New Orleans Pelicans Lottery Projections

New Orleans Pelicans Lottery Projections – One Final Look

With just one week until the end of the 2012-13 NBA regular season, we take one last look at where the Hornets stand among the other lottery-bound teams.

First, each potential lottery team’s record and remaining schedule:

Charlotte Bobcats (18-60) -*at Detroit, vs. Milwaukee, vs. New York, vs. Cleveland
Orlando Magic (20-59) – vs. Boston, vs. Chicago, at Miami
Phoenix Suns (24-55) -*at Minnesota, vs. Houston, at Denver
Cleveland Cavaliers (24-54) -*vs. New York, at Philadelphia, vs. Miami, at Charlotte
Detroit Pistons (27-52) -*vs. Charlotte, vs. Philadelphia, at Brooklyn
New Orleans Hornets (27-52) – vs. LA Clippers, vs. Dallas, at Dallas
Sacramento Kings (28-50) – at San Antonio, at Houston, at OKC, vs. LA Clippers
Washington Wizards (29-50) – vs. Philadelphia, at Brooklyn, at Chicago
Minnesota Timberwolves (29-49) – at Utah, vs. Phoenix, vs. Utah, at San Antonio
Toronto Raptors (30-48) -*vs. Chicago, vs. Brooklyn, at Atlanta, vs. Boston
Philadelphia 76ers (31-47) - at Washington, vs. Cleveland, at Detroit, at Indiana
Portland Trail Blazers (33-45) -*vs. OKC, at Denver, at LA Clippers, vs. Golden State
Dallas Mavericks (38-40) -*vs. Denver, at New Orleans, vs. Memphis, vs. New Orleans
Utah Jazz (41-38) -*vs. Minnesota, at Minnesota, at Memphis
Los Angeles Lakers (42-37) – vs. Golden State, vs. San Antonio, vs. Houston

Given the above data, we can place each of the bottom 11 teams into four tiers. Barring an entirely unexpected string of events, the teams in each tier won’t move into another tier by season’s end.
Tier 1: Charlotte and Orlando
Tier 2: Phoenix and Cleveland
Tier 3: Detroit, New Orleans, and Sacramento
Tier 4: Washington, Minnesota, Toronto, and Philadelphia
Portland, Dallas, and Utah/Los Angeles are each almost certainly locked into their current spots.

Final Projections + odds of receiving #1 pick
1. *Charlotte Bobcats (19-63) *25%
2. Orlando Magic (20-62) *19.9%
3. Phoenix Suns (24-58) *15.6%
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (25-57) *11.9%
5. New Orleans Hornets (27-55) *8.8%
6. Sacramento Kings (28-54) *6.3%
7. Detroit Pistons (29-53) 4.3%
8a. Washington Wizards (30-52) *2.25%
8b. Minnesota Timberwolves (30-52) *2.25%
10. Toronto Raptors (31-51) *1.1%
11. Philadelphia 76ers (32-50) *0.8%
12. Portland Trail Blazers (33-49) *0.7%
13. Dallas Mavericks (40-42) *0.6%
14. Utah Jazz (43-39) *0.5%

Note: The Hornets’ 0-3 projection down the stretch is heavily correlated to their current injury concerns. Vasquez admittedly had trouble playing through his injured ankle last night, and there is a strong chance that Davis may be shut down for the last week of the season after the knee sprain he suffered last night. If they are on the court and healthy by Sunday, I would expect them to beat the Mavericks in the team’s home finale.

Leave your thoughts on how the standings will end up in the comments below!

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Trey Burke

New Orleans Pelicans Lottery Projections – One Final Look

Lakers pick belongs to the suns

Don't see the Pistons losing to the bobcats at home and don't see the Hornets losing to Dallas twice. I see 28 wins between the Pistons and Hornets. The Hornets will likely tie with Detroit and forces a coin flip. Hopefully we win this time around.

I think the bobcats should be fined on how bad they run their franchise..

Quote:

Originally Posted by BallSoHard

Lakers pick belongs to the suns

Only if they miss the playoffs right?

Poor Jordan, he just can't figure out why his team is always bad.

Quote:

Originally Posted by UNO Gracias

Trey Burke

What are his chances of winning the Lottery?

I can't believe teams will try to lose. I thought the lottery was to prevent that. The tried to win games last year but just happened to get the first pick.