Untying Winning and Losing - Jason Calmes
I wanted to post this so people who only visit the nest can read it. It's a great breakdown of tanking and the lottery.
Quote:
That guy just finished watching his team play, and he’s screaming at the top of lungs.
No . . . he’s not happy . . . he’s clearly mad.
Yes . . . yes, that’s it . . . a last second bucket decided the game.
No . . . his team didn’t lose . . . they won.
No . . . this wan’t the ABN, the `ball’ wasn’t a cube . . . this was actually on Earth . . .
This actually happens, and it happens often. Why?
In general, at some point the ultimate goal of a title for a fan’s favorite team is so far away, that fans turn to the distant future for hope, and offseason changes to their team are the vehicle for this hope. This is perfectly rational, especially when the onseason is a horror show. Foremost among these is the draft of new talent. In some sports, having the worst record guarantees the most valuable pick in the draft (though it’s up to the GM to use it to full effect), the second worst record guarantees the second most valuable pick, and so on. In the NBA, there are no such guarantees for teams missing the playoffs (those in the playoffs have guaranteed Draft positions), though all such teams have a chance at the most valuable pick in the Draft.
Thus, the “why” lies in the qualitative notion that a loss now, which is less hurtful than others since it occurs once the season is “lost” and the team is “going nowhere,” will serve to gather more wins in the future that will be of greater value than a win now.
This is all very logical.
And qualitative.
Qualitative analysis has a very important role in science and general thought (some is used below), but so does quantitative analysis (more is used below).
Meaningful Benefit of the Lottery
While it is true that losing games does not decrease your odds of winning the Lottery, it does not guarantee an increase, and any increase achieved is not necessarily very influential. Sure, an increase is a help toward the goal of winning the Lottery, and winning the Lottery has a very small downside in itself, but not all differences make a meaningful difference. The small costs are a slightly increased rookie scale ($0.5mish between first and second, another $0.4mish to third, and $2mish between first and seventh), which is inflated by 20% in most cases. Also, every pick has inherent risk of being an injury bust (e.g. Oden) or of not selecting the eventual-best available player (e.g. likely Bargnani). Since these are essentially ubiquitous, they are non-discriminators. As such, they do not enter than analysis.
While this is a clear net benefit if the team wins, the questions are
How much?
How big of an if?
more...