NBA Draft Lottery Thread

So here we are! After long months of waiting since AD came out with his desire to be traded, the NBA Draft Lottery is here. After tonight, we will be able to stop making speculative comments about what assets each team has for the AD trade, and instead make some equally speculative comments about which teams will be willing to trade the assets they've got. And of course, we will also find out where our pick is going to end up.

Representing the New Orleans Pelicans at the Lottery will be our new GM/POBO/Executive/Leader-man, David Griffin, and also still-standing coach Alvin Gentry. Let's just get a quick reminder of which teams are where in the lottery:

1) New York Knicks - 14% at #1 pick, 52.1% chance at top 4.
2) Cleveland Cavaliers - 14% at #1 pick, 52.1% chance at top 4.
3) Phoenix Suns - 14% at #1 pick, 52.1% chance at top 4.
4) Chicago Bulls - 12.5% at #1 pick, 48% chance at top 4.
5) Atlanta Hawks - 10.5% at #1 pick, 42.1% chance at top 4.
6) Washington Wizards - 9% at #1 pick, 37.2% chance at top 4.
7) New Orleans Pelicans - 6% at #1 pick, 26.3% chance at top 4.
8) Memphis Grizzlies - 6% at #1 pick, 26.3% at top 4.
9) Dallas Mavericks - 6% at #1 pick, 26.3% at top 4.
10) Minnesota Timberwolves - 3% at #1 pick, 13.9% chance at top 4.

So, what's the dream run? To me, it seems fairly obvious. The best possible world has our 6% chance pulling off and giving us the #1 overall pick with our own draft pick. That completely removes the question about whether another team would trade it or not, and guarantees us Zion Williamson. It's a slim chance, unquestionably, but it's there and stranger things have happened. I'll be keeping my fingers crossed.

Aside from that, what's the best possible solution? There's debate to be had over this, and to an extent it depends what teams you think would trade what, and which potential trade packages you like best. For me, the best result outside of us getting Zion outright would be for the Knicks to get the #1 overall pick, and for our own pick to capitalise on that 26.3% chance and jump up into the top 4, but not to #2. I would prefer us to get #3, so that we can pick Culver without having to make the choice about Morant, who I believe is going to go at #2. That would provide us with a premium pick of our own, plus still give us a strong likelihood at being able to acquire Zion in the AD trade.

Third best would be for our own pick to at least stay at #7 without dropping, and for the Grizzlies pick to fall within the top 8, which would allow it to convey to Boston giving them another asset for an AD trade. There's always the chance of the Sacramento pick that Boston owns jumping up from #14 to the top ten: damn, there's even a 1% chance for it to come out at #1 overall, although in that scenario I think the pick goes to Philadelphia instead, so we don't want that. If that happens, Boston could have a top ten pick + the Memphis pick to go along with Tatum and Brown in a pretty attractive trade package.

There's a lot of chances for things to go fairly well for us in this lottery, but there's still room for a lot to go wrong and we do have #PelsLife to contend with. That said, I'm pretty hype about this and I'm looking forward to seeing exactly where things fall for us so that we can start to look at the future with a little more clarity.

Let's go and #DoItBig! David Griffin don't fail us now, you were GM when Cleveland got back to back #1 picks, work your magic!

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds


https://i.ibb.co/G9zBvjh/1.png

I'm going to be on pins and needles tomorrow night. And for no reason.

Except all of the reason.

Great writeup.

I'm getting very antsy.

8 not a bad spot . I would like to get a little higher. Doubt we get in top 3 . We could not tank right at end of season.

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Originally Posted by 13 - 3

8 not a bad spot . I would like to get a little higher. Doubt we get in top 3 . We could not tank right at end of season.

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It's one of those things. We could jump into any top four spot. It's mathematically possible. But it's not very likely.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by msusousaphone

Great writeup.

I'm getting very antsy.

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Same, I really just want to know where we stand.

I’m wearing my Pels polo to work today.

Have a bad feeling Wash is winning the 1 pick today smh

Man it's crazy how lucky it was to win the 3 way tie breaker. It guarantees us no lower than 10th. Had we lost we could be picking as low as 12th.

Knick fans here are losing their collective minds. I, for one will laugh if they don't get the #1 pick. And then will laugh harder if they get the pick and then trade it for AD.

I'm on the west coast.. god I hope I get off work in time to watch! I haven't been this excited for the Pels since our season crumbled

I will keep My fingers crossed for David and Alvin.

Best case scenario is we end up with 1, Sac town ends up with 2 and we trade Ant for Ja, Tatum and Brown. The likely scenario is we end up with 10th, draft a bust and trade for Chris Paul. Bring a Hornet home

Anybody else think we should make a run at jimmy butler in free agency ??

.@ShamsCharania

“I’m told if the Knicks do get that #1 overall pick that they will shift their focus toward a potential deal for Anthony Davis”

H/T @BenchWarmerPost
pic.twitter.com/pQlqomTlGE

— Knicks Film School (@KnickFilmSchool) May 14, 2019

And there it is lol.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kinglio21093

.@ShamsCharania

“I’m told if the Knicks do get that #1 overall pick that they will shift their focus toward a potential deal for Anthony Davis”

H/T @BenchWarmerPost
pic.twitter.com/pQlqomTlGE

— Knicks Film School (@KnickFilmSchool) May 14, 2019

And there it is lol.

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Bring it on!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PeliKhan

Anybody else think we should make a run at jimmy butler in free agency ??

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Would love to get Butler.

Come on Knicks! Get that pick!

Our chances at winning the lottery just went from 6% to 20% lol.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PeliKhan

Anybody else think we should make a run at jimmy butler in free agency ??

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he's prly going to Brooklyn

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kinglio21093

Our chances at winning the lottery just went from 6% to 20% lol.

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We’ve been thinking this all along really. They want a core of Anthony, Kyrie and Durant.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kinglio21093

Our chances at winning the lottery just went from 6% to 20% lol.

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Trying not to get excited.

Pelicans chances for #1 rising and are already better than 6% chance.

.@ShamsCharania

“I’m told if the Knicks do get that #1 overall pick that they will shift their focus toward a potential deal for Anthony Davis”

H/T @BenchWarmerPost
pic.twitter.com/pQlqomTlGE

— Knicks Film School (@KnickFilmSchool) May 14, 2019

My body is ready. Pels win the lotto and get Zion with their own pick and the Knicks win the #2 spot and trade it along with Knox, Robinson and the Mavs picks for AD. We build around a core of Zion, Morant and Jrue. Then we all flap.