Ogden, I'm going to disregard your personal attacks and address your argument. Perhaps set aside the hate you have and take a look.
Let's get this straight. My stats are cherry picked and not relevant but yours aren't? You posited that "Our front court players are TO A MAN having among their least efficient, worst offensive years in their careers "
How do you measure offensive efficiency? Via TS%. There's no such thing as "inflating" TS% - the higher it is, the better. TS% is a measure of shooting efficiency that puts a number on the points a player is expected score per shooting possession. If you double the TS% - you get points per shooting possession. You bring up that Dante is at a career low 39% from the field, but his better than career average TS% means that shots he is taking this year produce more points than the ones on average for his career, and especially more than the shots he took under Monty ( who you suggested was using Dante "correctly" or "better")
To put it simply if Dante takes 10 shots this year, he's expected to produce 10 points. If Dante took 10 shots in 14-15, he would produce 9.46 points. Which is more efficient? The same thing applies to you bringing up FTR. That's the beauty of TS%, it accounts for free throws too.
I'll give you that you lose the added bonus of giving the opposing team a foul, but that's a small difference.
I'll also give you that Dante is assisting at a lower rate than he did in 14-15, but it's minuscule (1.2 assists per 100 vs 1.6 assists per 100). But he averaged 1.9 assists/100 last year (Under Gentry), so this minimal year to year fluctuation probably isn't coach or role dependent at all. After all, it takes two to notch an assist.
You said he has a career low WS/48 -but that's untrue. He recorded his career low WS/48 with Monty. Both years under Gentry have been better than he was with Monty. But while we are talking about the win shares stat, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention its a rather worthless one. Similar to PER, its a box score aggregate. Meaning its entirely dependent on what you are putting up on your box score. But what makes it worse is that its entirely TEAM dependent. Defensive Winshares distribute credit equally to all player, pro rated by minutes with slight stat adjustments. But on a larger scale, it's a stat derived backwards to model "wins" (which it doesn't) so if your team isn't winning, there's less of the share to go around.
But enough about winshares. You said they were having their worst offensively efficient years to date - which is categorically false. They aren't, and Dante is in fact more efficient than he was with Monty - your original claim.
Dante has declined every year since he left Memphis. There's no reason to think that year was anything but an aberration. But you move the goalposts. You were comparing to Monty, and Dante has been a better and more effective player than he was under Monty. His on/off under Monty was -0.6/100. His on/off this year is +6.7/100. The Pelicans are 6.7 points/100 better when Dante is on the floor this year. Is that not helping the team? And if you want to strict only to offense, Pels are 2.4pts/100 better on offense when Dante plays this year, they were 1.4points/100 WORSE on offense under Monty.
You keep saying the numbers support your case, but they clearly don't.
We went through it with Dante, but surely you can see the irony in calling me out for using stats with no context then cherry picking and doing the same. Your original point was that Hill, like Dante, is seeing career low efficiency - which is untrue. But let's talk context. Hill had a career year last year and a great playoff stretch which earned him his contract. But when did he turn it around? When the Pacers moved him into the starting lineup as a power forward. That's right, when they went small.
Before All-star break last year, Hill was racking up DNPs, averaging 11mpg, 3.2 pts/ 2.2 reb/ .8 ast per game on a horrible .472 TS%
When he was moved to power forward, Hill averaged 18mpg, 5.2pts / 3.4rebs / 1.1 ast on a stellar .602 TS% (40.3% from three!)
Who is the real Hill though? History shows he isn't the 40% shooter that appeared in the last 29 games of the season and the playoffs. His modest 33.3% this year is a career high, and he's attempting at career high rates ( has already shot and made more than last year).
Maybe, just maybe, Hill just isn't a very skilled offensive player? Nevertheless, how is he impacting the team? For starters, the team is 3.0pts/100 better when he plays ( a career high mark). On the offensive end, the team is 1.3 points/100 better offensively. So say what you want about his role, the team is succeeding on both ends of the floor (relative to other options) when he is on the floor.
Here is a question for you. How many times have you seen pass up an open shot this year? How many times have you seen him drive and then just dish? Hill is being uncharacteristically ( or characteristically who knows really) timid. He is given every opportunity to take shots, but he's happy passing them up at most times.
Dante and Solo have hardly done anything in their career at what I would call a respectable rate. But that's not the issue. Do you honestly believe Gentry tells Solo not to drive and attack the rim? That's exactly when they want him to do. Solo just doesn't do it on any type of consistent basis.
And they are being effective now. Sure Indy had a great rating with Solo last year. He had a career year. But they were miserable the year before (99.9 ORTG with him on, 102.2 with him off). What happened that year? Oh yeah, Paul George was missing. He's pretty important piece on the offensive end. Which all circles back to the most important component of a team - it's personnel. A fact, I think you are too easily glossing over.
The data does not suggest other wise. The Pelicans are 10pts/100 BETTER when AD plays. 10 whole points! AD's impact on team play is one of the highest in the league. Yet the Pelicans still suck. Why is that? Well there are 4 other players that share the court with him. And besides Jrue and Tyreke ( who have both missed time and are struggling trying to adjust) we have absolutely 0 players who have shown to be above average offensive threats over the course of their careers. None have averaged more than 12 points game. None have been anything other than role players.
Fluctuating their roles and usage isn't going to change who they are. But it's plain as day false when you claim AD's current role is helpful to the team, muchless disastrous as you put it.
Shaq from 95-03 averaged a 31.7% USG. That's an 8 year span in which he had multiple finals appearances and a 3peat. That was a with a much better roster than AD has around him, including a Kobe who averaged a usage of 31.8 during the 3 peat.
But that's not all, Karl Malone - finals run and many other years. Hakeem - 94 championship and several other years, David Robinson several years seeing usage of 31+.
All of those guys have had to do it. Sure it's not ideal that AD has to do it this year, but lets not act like this would be the case if we had competent offensive threats. Why wasn't his usage that high last year? Because even last year, with all of our injuries, Anderson gave us 60 games, a really good Jrue gave us 60 games, Gordon 40 games - and our offense was top 10 until Gordon went down. You see the trend? Personnel matters.
This is ironic, because that is literally Gentry's philosophy. Yet we get mad when Solo or Dante or Galloway chucks an open three despite the clock. It's an easy shot no?
Yeah AD isn't a playmaker, but you don't need to be a play maker to create open looks.
Here's an excellent read on how AD creates space by simply being on the court. His gravity when he rolls, or attracts doubles and triples creates easy and open shots for others.
And it's not like we aren't getting easy looks either. Pelicans create the 4th highest frequency of open shots. We hit them at the 25th best rate. Whose fault is that? Should Gentry take those shots for them? Should AD take less shots himself so others can miss more open shots?
Yet both had a lot of success in Phoenix, and MDA in Houston is doing great! Crazy how personnel matters. These coaches were hired for their systems. If you do away with the system, why hire the coach?
Now did Dell make the right move in hiring Gentry for his system? It's looking questionable given the players he has provided him. Why hire a guy for offense and give him players that can't play offense?
I have my own thoughts on it, but it's a separate discussion.
It's not quite that simple. Pop has found a way to maximize every player in his system, yes. But if you don't fit his system or refuse to buy into your role, you are shown the door in San Antonio. No player is above the system in San Antonio they don't change the system to tailor to the players, the players tailor themselves to fit the system. Look at how drastically LMA's role has changed despite him being extremely effective in Portland.
Lastly I want to address this notion you have that I'm a Gentry supporter. There's a giant difference between supporting someone and not inappropriately assigning blame. Our fans our too quick to assign blame without looking at the larger picture or investigating deeper. But let me spell it out for you clearly because I know you won't hear me. I don't think Gentry has been a good coach. But I also don't think he deserves the false criticisms found in your comments and around this board, especially with regards to Monty.
At the end of the day, our players flat out suck. They all have been not good their entire careers, some are doing better, some are doing worse - that's basketball. But to think that any of this has any type of bearing or predictive value as to how Gentry is going to coach or is perceived as a coach if/when he gets better players is a mistake. But the sooner we come to grips that this is a team built to fail on the offensive end, the easier the losses are going to be to stomach.
I know this probably isn't going to budge you an inch, and I don't really care. Hopefully someone else on the board will read it and not make the same mistakes you do. If you wanna discus things in a non confrontational manner, I'll be happy to do so.
Originally Posted by Ogden Park
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well done
