That Pelicans Offense...

[Bricklayer]

(PreNote: I think this should be subtitled "maybe we all just need to chill about the turnovers -- that includes the flummoxed announcing crew.)

Ok, what started out as me going to look at the Pels turnover situation turned into me taking a real look at the Pels offensive output and realizing, we're all idiots -- the focus on some truly daft turnovers has been distracting us from something pretty amazing.

Below I'm going to list the current Top 5 NBA teams in Scoring Per Game, Offensive Rating, FG% and TS%, and then I am going to add a 6th team -- the Pelicans in the last 15 games since Rajon Rondo returned to full time duty (Nov 15th -- I did not include his first game when he only played 5 minutes). Now I am not saying that this is all because of Rondo, or anything like it. I think guys getting familiar with the system, rotations getting sorted out etc. have all played a major part too. Nonetheless...

NBA Team Scoring
1. Golden State 117.0
2. Houston 114.8
Pels Last 15gms 114.0
3. Cleveland 111.0
4. New Orleans 110.8
5. Toronto 110.7

NBA Offensive Rating
1. Golden State 115.4
2. Houston 115.4
Pels Last 15gms 113.9
3. Cleveland 113.7
4. Toronto 113.0
5. Minnesota 110.9

NBA Team FG%
1. Golden State .513
Pels Last 15gms .506
2. New Orleans .490
3. Cleveland .482
4. Toronto .480
5. Milwaukee .480

NBA Team TS%
1. Golden State .617
2. Houston .604
Pels Last 15gms .603
3. Cleveland .596
4. New Orleans .586
5. Toronto .583


And that's with A.D. in and out of the lineup. In other words, screw the turnovers -- for the last month the Pels offense has been operating at a championship Golden State/Houston level. Really the ENTIRE problem has been the collapse on the other end. With even a league average defense (league average in D gives up 105.3pts/gm) the Pels would be flying.

[Pelicanidae]

What's awesome to see is how many of these lists we're in the top five anyway, even without adjustment. I honestly think the turnovers will come down with time. We're never gonna be the best team in the league when it comes to keeping turnovers down, but I honestly believe that by the end of the season, we also won't be the worst. The turnovers will work out.

The signs of the offense not only firing on all cylinders, but that it's improving still over more recent game samples, is very promising. Obviously that's somewhat inflated by Moore playing out of this world recently, and Jrue having multiple high octane games, but I don't see any reason why that production would disappear when AD is on the way back into the lineup.

So yeah, we've got some issues on defense and with the turnovers, but those can be worked on. What's positive is that you're right, our offense is murderous right now. And it could well stay like that.

[luigi modelo]

Good post! The turnovers will come down. A lot of them aren't awful in that the idea that led to the errant pass was a good one. With time and the guys getting to know each other, some of those passes that didn't get there before, will start to get to its intended target. This team is very close to putting it all together and other teams should worry!

[luckyman]

If only total offensive stats meant Ws. The Saints maintained a top 5, if not top 3 offense, in all of their 7-9 seasons.

The turnovers and terrible offensive possessions at crucial moments, unfortunately, mean a lot to the bottom line. They can't just be forgotten.

[AusPel]

Weren't we super low in turnovers last season, like top 5 low?

[bahmamamba]

I don't mind turnovers I mind when they happen and when they happen at the wrong time going against teams like the warriors and Houston like the last 5 mins of the game up 10 and boom turnovers and they come back like it's nothing

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[ramsters60]

If only total offensive stats meant Ws. The Saints maintained a top 5, if not top 3 offense, in all of their 7-9 seasons.

The turnovers and terrible offensive possessions at crucial moments, unfortunately, mean a lot to the bottom line. They can't just be forgotten.

You are exactly right in saying that they can't be dismissed... a turnover not only takes a scoring opportunity away (which maybe they can cope with), but it also provides additional possessions defensively, which they don't cope nearly as well with....

[Pelicanidae]

I don't mind turnovers I mind when they happen and when they happen at the wrong time going against teams like the warriors and Houston like the last 5 mins of the game up 10 and boom turnovers and they come back like it's nothing

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Agreed. For all I care, we can average 4 turnovers a quarter, as long as they're in the first two minutes of each quarter and nothing at the end.

[luckyman]

It's not just the TOs. They have a bad penchant for folding up at crucial moments. The ball stops, everybody stands and watches, terrible shot are taken when it's time to put a game away.

Last night was the first time you saw them continue to execute in a tight 4th quarter. They continued to try to get good shots at the basket. Not just 3 chucking, long jump shots, and of course, bad lazy passes.

Hopefully that continues and they stop asking Cousins to create so much from the key.

[new city champ]

I think it was Wesley who said committing this many turnovers means you are playing uphill all the time. Pels offensive production has been phenomenal lately. But is masking a lot of bad habits. If our shooting drops off these habits are going to cost us games. Even with our offense humming we've struggled to stay above .500.

[JJackisangry]

If only total offensive stats meant Ws. The Saints maintained a top 5, if not top 3 offense, in all of their 7-9 seasons.

The turnovers and terrible offensive possessions at crucial moments, unfortunately, mean a lot to the bottom line. They can't just be forgotten.

This is about as accurate as you can get. For some reason, we will resort to endless drive and kicks towards the end of games where other teams crowd the paint and force a turnover. We have to make sure we aren't predictable when it matters the most. FFS, Gentry should not get a pass simply because we score a high number each game. If you factor in the idiotic turnovers we give up and the frequency we give up easy buckets, those numbers mean much less. We have players that can fill it up, but our offensive possessions are often very poor.

[Bricklayer]

This is about as accurate as you can get. For some reason, we will resort to endless drive and kicks towards the end of games where other teams crowd the paint and force a turnover. We have to make sure we aren't predictable when it matters the most. FFS, Gentry should not get a pass simply because we score a high number each game. If you factor in the idiotic turnovers we give up and the frequency we give up easy buckets, those numbers mean much less. We have players that can fill it up, but our offensive possessions are often very poor.

Thing is:

a) turnovers are built into ORTG. When you are carrying an ORTG of 113.9, that is WITH the turnovers. Counting them. And that's insanely high. Throw in a .603TS% and that's actually championship level high.

b) the turnovers are being overstated. yes, the Pels are high in turnovers. But they average 16.4 turnovers a game. Golden State averages 16.2 turnovers a game. Houston averages 15.4 turnovers a game. So all of this excessive turnover handwringing is what? 1 turnover a game? Really? .2 TO a game more than the greatest offensive machine of the modern era?

c) the Pelicans are one of the 3 top assisting teams in the NBA. In fact it's not even close -- 3 teams are way out ahead of everybody else, and not surprisingly all that passing means more turnovers. The Warriors (1st) Pelicans (2nd) and 76ers (3rd) in assists, are also Warriors (4th) Pelicans (3rd) 76ers (1st) in turnovers. If you create, it's not all going to hit the mark.

NBA Assists 2017-18
1) GSW 30.8 vs. 16.2TO AST/TO = 1.90
2) NOP 26.7 vs. 16.4TO AST/TO=1.62
3) PHI 26.1 vs. 17.8TO AST/TO=1.47
4) ORL 23.9 vs. 15.0TO AST/TO=1.59
5) CLE 23.8 vs. 14.8TO AST/TO=1.61

It's not like turnovers are a desirable thing. It's always good to cut them back where you can. But to get that kind of passing and movement and scoring result, they are the cost. The Pels have a better AST/TO ratio than virtually any team except the Warriors.

[luckyman]

I think you keep missing a point made several times. It's not just the sheer number of turnovers, but when. I'm also willing to bet the standard deviation of Pelicans TOs per game is wider than GS.

When they are bad, they are BAD.

[Bricklayer]

I think you keep missing a point made several times. It's not just the sheer number of turnovers, but when. I'm also willing to bet the standard deviation of Pelicans TOs per game is wider than GS.

When they are bad, they are BAD.

I rather strongly suspect that's "eye test" stuff. Especially since again, the team scores out really well offensively in the clutch as well.

The problem has been the defense. End stop. You take away the turnovers and all it does is make the 3rd best offensive team in the league the best offensive team in the league with an offensive rating that might be the greatest in NBA history.

That's not hyperbole either. Thanks to three point spamming and rule changes, teams have never been able to be this "efficient". The greatest ORTG in history is 115.6. The current Warriors have the 4th best of all time. Since Rondo returned, the Pels have been playing at a level of the 22nd best offensive team of all time. Taking away the turnovers as well is a quest for all time GOAT perfection.

Meanwhile the real issue is the other end. The other end is the only reason the Pels ever lose to anybody below a 60 win team anymore. Well, that or pissing me off by sitting Rondo and handing a terrible Sacramento team a win as magically the team doesn't score again.