DraftExpress: Situational Statistics: the 2013 Point Guard Crop
Originally Posted by On Trey Burke
Trey Burke is widely considered the top point guard available in the 2013 draft and nothing we found in studying his situational stats would lead us to believe otherwise. He does not stand out in a major way on paper, but ranks well across the board and excels in a few key areas that should aid him in his transition to the next level.
Looking at the bigger picture, Burke's 18.5 possessions per-game, 0.999 overall points per-possessions (PPP), and 11.5% turnover rate all place him in the top-six of those respective categories. Erick Green, C.J. McCollum, and Nate Wolters all rank similarly well by those standards, and maybe even a little better, but Burke's standing in both usage and efficiency are especially impressive considering the quality of defense he faced on a nightly basis in the Big Ten and the pressure associated with being the top threat on a National Championship caliber team.
Burke did his best work as a scorer in the half court, where he once again hovers around the top-five in usage and efficiency. More a facilitator in transition, Burke sports a terrific 4.3-to-1 assist to turnover ratio on the fast break. His biggest weakness relative to his peer group may be his average scoring efficiency in transition, which is mostly due to the fact he got to the line on a sample worse 12.3% of his transition possessions.
Perhaps more so than any position in the NBA, point guards are defined by their ability to excel in one particular situation: the pick and roll. While Trey Burke ranks well in both the number of possessions he used dribble off of ball screens and the rate at which he turned them into points, what is truly remarkable about his numbers in the two-man game is the degree to which he valued the ball. Turning it over on just 8.2% of his pick and roll possessions, Burke's command of the ball makes him the only player with a single-digit turnover percentage.
Aside from the pick and roll, Burke ranks average to above average as a spot-up shooter, isolation scorer, and off screen threat. A 44.7% jump shooter off the catch and effective slasher with his left hand, Burke is a crafty shot creator with an array of weapons at his disposal to get the ball in the basket.
His biggest weapon as a scorer is his pull-up jump shot, which accounted for a sample leading 46.4% of his attempts in the half court last season. Yielding 1.01 points per-shot, Burke's pull-up is on par with Damian Lillard's coming out of Weber State (1 PPP) and was almost more effective for him than a finishing opportunity, where his 1.052 points per-shot ranks below average. It will be worth tracking how Burke fares when he attacks the rim at the next level, as his shooting at the basket and ability to create easy opportunities for himself at the line could be the key to his ability to take the next step as a pro.
-Every year there's a player who puts up outrageous numbers in a season shortened by any number of factors. That player this season is C.J. McCollum, who ranked third in overall usage at 20.8 possessions per-game and first in scoring efficiency at a tremendous 1.104 points per-possession.
Ranking second in both transition scoring efficiency at 1.26 PPP and half court scoring efficiency at 1.065 PPP, it was McCollum's prolific jump shooting prior to injuring his foot that helps him here. Connecting on more than 50% of his jump shots overall, with splits of 49% off the dribble and 61% off the catch, McCollum leads this group in field goal percentage on the pick and roll and in spot-up situations and ranks second one-on-one thanks to his hot perimeter shooting as a senior. Knocking down 36.6% of his jump shots in 35 games as a junior, McCollum clearly benefits from some sample size bias, but has a proven track record of being able to put pressure on opposing defenses with his ability to score from all over the court.
A slightly above average finisher and foul drawer, if McCollum has a true weakness on paper in this limited sample of games, it is that his profile reinforces that the role he filled was more aligned with playing off the ball than those of his peers. He did less creating for his teammates on the pick and roll than any player other than Lorenzo Brown at 2.6 pass outs to possessions per-game, well below the average of 6.1, and used screens without the ball to get open for 12% of his possessions, almost double the next closest player in this group.
Doing what he needed to as a scorer to lead Lehigh to wins, McCollum has acknowledged in interviews that he's prepared to make whatever adjustments he's asked to make as a lead guard at the next level to fit in stylistically.http://www.draftexpress.com/article/...uard-Crop-4268-This study is not kind to Michael Carter-Williams who ranks as the least efficient scorer in this group at 0.746 points per-possession. His 22.1% overall turnover rate is the second worst among his peers, as is his 0.683 PPP in the half court. Those two stats are representative of the two key areas his scouting report notes he need to make strides in to reach his potential as a pro: his decision-making and perimeter shooting.
Turning the ball over on 28% of his pick and roll possessions, the highest among his peers, ball security was an area of concern for Carter-Williams in the half court last season. Sporting a 3.6 assist to turnover ratio in transition, he's more efficient as a playmaker in the open floor at this point in his career.
Carter-Williams' well documented issues as a shooter cost him here as well, as his 26.2% shooting on pull-up jumpers and 28% shooting off the catch are a major limiting factor on his scoring ability in the half court, resulting in his ranks as the second worst spot-up and 5th worst pick and roll shooter in this group.
Often lauded for his ability to score at the rim, a bit of fishing shows that Carter-Williams shoots a slightly below average 48.8% as a finisher in the half court, though he compensates by shooting nearly 60% at the basket as the ball-handler in transition.
While Carter-Williams doesn't look great here, this doesn't reveal anything teams don't already know about him. Whoever drafts him will be excited about his size, solid one-on-one ability, athleticism in the open floor, and the player he has the opportunity to become as he begins to work on his two very much improvable weaknesses.
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