Vasquez sets record for turnovers in a season

[GESWhoseBack]

Let's put it this way:

Lillard: 3166 minutes, 531 assists, 243 turnovers

Vasquez: 2685 minutes, 704 assists, 247 turnovers

So, GV has a turnover or assist every 2 minutes 49.4 seconds, with an AST/TO ratio of 2.85, AST%/TO% of 2.41

Lillard has a turnover or assist every 4 minutes 5.4 seconds, with an AST/TO ratio of 2.19, AST%/TO% of 1.99.

Lillard had a solid passing game, but Greivis' engaged in these very good or very bad passes (not all TO are passes, but let's assume these affected both players equally), far more often and at a jaw-dropping rate. The net result was a few more turnovers (4). Projecting his minutes out to equal Lillard's, GV would have gotten about 291 TO and 830 assists.

So pick all you want on those numbers, but tell the whole story.

So Lillard passed the ball less, I knew that but the you telling that makes it ok to throw the ball away more?

[Kibner]

So Lillard passed the ball less, I knew that but the you telling that makes it ok to throw the ball away more?

Where did 42 say it was ok to throw the ball away?

It is times like this that I wish we had access to the super-secret stats that teams do. They have ways to track "bad" passes and "good" passes independent of if it resulted in a turnover, assisted score, or just added to ball movement.

One way to possibly explain Lillard's lower turnover rate is by asking how many times he shoots. After all, a missed shot doesn't count as a turnover. A ball-dominant guard that shoots more than he passes tends to have fewer turnovers than a ball-dominant guard that passes more than he shoots.

e: just looked it up: Damian shoots the ball ~3 times more each game than Greivis. It was also 3.0 to 3.2 turnovers per game for the players, favoring Lillard.

[42]

Yes.

That is exactly what I am saying.

Let's say we compare the driving record of two people. One person has been in 1 accident, the other, 2. Second driver seems worse, right? The first driver was looked at for a full two years, while the second had a surgery and was only on the road for 18 months. Getting worse, right? Well, the first one drove 100 miles a week because he was retired, while the second was a sales rep logging 1000 miles a week. So 1 accident in 10400 miles driven or 2 in 78000 miles?

More attempts means more failures and more successes expected than fewer attempts. Both increase. The rate is what is important: failures per opportunity for failure.

[42]

Where did 42 say it was ok to throw the ball away?

It is times like this that I wish we had access to the super-secret stats that teams do. They have ways to track "bad" passes and "good" passes independent of if it resulted in a turnover, assisted score, or just added to ball movement.

One way to possibly explain Lillard's lower turnover rate is by asking how many times he shoots. After all, a missed shot doesn't count as a turnover. A ball-dominant guard that shoots more than he passes tends to have fewer turnovers than a ball-dominant guard that passes more than he shoots.

Excellent point on missed shots... May affect GV too!

[Kibner]

Excellent point on missed shots... May affect GV too!

Yeah, I edited my post with a quick and dirty lookup of simple per game numbers for them:

     Lillard  Vasquez
TOV      3.0      3.2
FGA     15.7     13.0
AST      6.5      9.0

I don't really have much to say about it other than I believe Vasquez is a league average PG and has almost peaked while Lillard is a bit better right now with a much higher ceiling.

e: Assists and turnovers are really hard to use when trying to accurately depict how well a player controls an offense. Neither of them can tell whether the recorded stat was generated by a good or poor decision. Still, 9.0 assists a game is not easy.

It has been done 28 times in the last 10 seasons.

The only people on that list are Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams, and Greivis Vasquez.

[GESWhoseBack]

Yes.

That is exactly what I am saying.

Let's say we compare the driving record of two people. One person has been in 1 accident, the other, 2. Second driver seems worse, right? The first driver was looked at for a full two years, while the second had a surgery and was only on the road for 18 months. Getting worse, right? Well, the first one drove 100 miles a week because he was retired, while the second was a sales rep logging 1000 miles a week. So 1 accident in 10400 miles driven or 2 in 78000 miles?

More attempts means more failures and more successes expected than fewer attempts. Both increase. The rate is what is important: failures per opportunity for failure.

I understand your premise but what I said in the beginning is that I don't think most of Vasquez's turnovers would be considered on good passes as kibner stated or even on passes at all. GV had a tendency to get stripped often when pressure and I can't prove this but it seemed to be at a higher rate than the average PG and definitely more than he was stripping his man on defense. Like I said GV has the ball a lot whether I agree with or not and that will lead to him having more turnovers but that doesn't mean he should be satisfied with being a victim to ball pressure cause guys like Westbrook and Bradley smell blood in the water when they see him coming. But like I said I don't have any numbers to back this up but I watched a lot of games this season and this is how I saw it.

[Kibner]

I doubt Vasquez was happy with his handling of on-ball pressure or his misplaced/mistimed/missed passes in transition and PnR offense this year. Whether he can improve there and being able to force his man into help defense will determine if he will be able to become a long-term starter for someone or a journeyman.

[42]

It's very easy to say "this cost is bad." What is harder, but more appropriate to do here, is to compare the various costs and benefits a player give you to the alternatives. The fact is that GV is well worth the costs, even if he's not the pg going forward.

You can talk about nonpassing turnovers, but if he'd passed it, he couldn't turn it over (once it arrived successfuly). So some of those are passing related... He should have passed. It's all an imperfect metric, like Kibner pointed out. Personally, I think most thinking on basketball value is just all wrong. Even shot attempts are far from really informative on terms of prediction.