Making the Transition: Is Austin Rivers Really the Worst?

[RaisingTheBar]

Wright being out of the league tells you everything you need to know about him.

JuJu is argubly the worst player ever, phil jackson mixed with popavich couldn't have helped him.


This video tells you everything you need to know:

[Snarly]

Seriously. All these stats do is try to make things black and white, when they're not. If you know basketball and watch the games you'll come to better conclusions than any of these advanced metrics, but you actually have to know basketball.

But at the same time, there's obviously a place in the game for them. If you look at guys like holinger getting hired by memphis, and all the moneyball stuff... Makes you wonder how much influence these things have on personal decisions. Though I'd think the decision usually comes down to the eyeballs of the coaches, scouts, and gm.

A lot of teams use statistics to grade players. It may not be the end all/be all but it definitely has its place. Dell Demps seems like he's a big proponent on money ball and advanced stats. Many of the players he's brought in has been money ball type of players.

[wuggie]

Not to derail but I think that 90% of JuJu's problem was Byron Scott. He hated young players and never worked with them.

I guess Bryon couldn't speak whatever language he spoke because he was flat out turrible. You can't blame a coach on somebody playing like giraffe with bad ankles. Austin has shown more promise than juju did the entire he was here.

[BallSoHard]

The development blunder i blame Scott for was JR Smith. He was a headcase no doubt, but he could have been a huge asset for us.

[GuardianAngel25]

Not to derail but I think that 90% of JuJu's problem was Byron Scott. He hated young players and never worked with them.

This just shows you are completely wrong on Austin. 100% of JuJus problems were JuJus not Byron's. Was it Byron's fault Cp3 was so good. Was it JuJus other coach in Toronto that made him so horrible to. The thing about Austin is he works his a** off therefore it won't be Monty's fault he doesn't walk him through a game step by step like JuJu needed.

[GuardianAngel25]

I don't think anyone is saying he's been great...but the worst season ever? i beg to differ.
Hey, if 2 years from now he sucks i'll eat my crow with a smile.
Lopez has already fed me a nice huge helping of crow...it's delicious!

Haha nice same here!

[Nsingh93]

His stats are all thrown off I think by the amount of minutes he plays, he is a very raw player who is forced into the starting lineup. I think once Gordon returns and he is coming off the bench we will see more improvement.

[Kibner]

I had stats explained to me as being there to challenge or confirm what our instinct and perception tell us.

For example, we know Rodman was an excellent rebounder. Stats can easily confirm this.

However, it was often said that he cheesed for rebounds in ways that would actively hurt his team. Some guy did a lot of research and found that Rodman went for fewer rebounds in close games than in blowouts (in either direction).

This seems to refute the thought that Rodman went for rebounds to the detriment of his team in games that were in question.

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[UptownFuz504]

This just shows you are completely wrong on Austin. 100% of JuJus problems were JuJus not Byron's. Was it Byron's fault Cp3 was so good. Was it JuJus other coach in Toronto that made him so horrible to. The thing about Austin is he works his a** off therefore it won't be Monty's fault he doesn't walk him through a game step by step like JuJu needed.

Byron Scott was notorious for not playing young players. He had to play Chris Paul. JuJu was heralded coming out of college and his confidence was shot because he had a coach who didn't know what to do with him. JuJu also had a quick hook. He never had the opportunity to go through growing pains because of fear of being yanked. Rivers has a good coach and gets pt and he's still bad. By the time JuJu got to TO he was ruined.

[ImSorryMonty]

I am fairly objective and I'll tell you right now, with decent amount of money on the line having bet the Hornets to surpass 27 wins this season, I would rather the ball be in Rivers hands every possession instead of Vasquez.

[BallSoHard]

I had stats explained to me as being there to challenge or confirm what our instinct and perception tell us.

For example, we know Rodman was an excellent rebounder. Stats can easily confirm this.

However, it was often said that he cheesed for rebounds in ways that would actively hurt his team. Some guy did a lot of research and found that Rodman went for fewer rebounds in close games than in blowouts (in either direction).

This seems to refute the thought that Rodman went for rebounds to the detriment of his team in games that were in question.

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I thought the question was if he was actively hurting his team, not if he was hurting his team when the game was in question.

[Kibner]

I thought the question was if he was actively hurting his team, not if he was hurting his team when the game was in question.

The conclusion was that he probably hurt the team but only when the game was like 15 points out of reach either way. When it was close, he focused more on doing the things that actually win games. So, the common thought was partially right.

Here is the article I am talking about: http://skepticalsports.com/?page_id=1222

It is pretty long and has lots of graphs and numbers, but he does a good job of explaining it in plain english. The guy was trying to present a case on why Rodman should be in the HOF (before he was actually inducted).

[Pelicans78]

The advanced metrics and eyeball test tells me that Rivers has been one of the worst players in the league so far. I'm not surprised and I expected it since he had mediocre metrics last season at Duke. But hopefully he improves in the offseason.

[GuardianAngel25]

Byron Scott was notorious for not playing young players. He had to play Chris Paul. JuJu was heralded coming out of college and his confidence was shot because he had a coach who didn't know what to do with him. JuJu also had a quick hook. He never had the opportunity to go through growing pains because of fear of being yanked. Rivers has a good coach and gets pt and he's still bad. By the time JuJu got to TO he was ruined.

He didn't play JuJu because he saw him in practice everyday and he sucked! He knew exactly what to do with him and that was not play him. He did play him enough to see he was a complete embarrassment. Yes Byron didn't play the young guns sometime, but JuJu is a different story. He was 6'7 with absolutely no game was just long and could jump which could make you heralded in college sometimes. He was to dumb to have confidence. Rivers has a good coach and gets PT because he can actually play with the guys on the court. If he is like this by year 3 then yes he is bad and it wont change. Your boy JuJu got his time and it didn't change. What team does he play for?

[nolaslim213]

1) Considering how young he is, Rivers should be one of the worst players in the league. He needs to add strength to absorb contact at the rim, and that will do him wonders. He also needs to refine his shooting mechanics, which he has already begun to do.

2) We shouldn't be measuring Rivers on production, yet somehow, everyone always seems to do so. I don't get it. He was labeled a project by Demps from day 1. He told us to not expect much from him for a year or 2, yet people still do. I just don't get it.

3) Rivers has already begun adding things to his game. The floater, his passing is better, his defense is way better, he has improved his shooting mechanics some, etc... The list goes on and on. Let the kid grow this season and stop giving him so much **** for being one of the youngest guys in the league. He is right on par with most other rookies, but his upside is significantly higher.

[GuardianAngel25]

1) Considering how young he is, Rivers should be one of the worst players in the league. He needs to add strength to absorb contact at the rim, and that will do him wonders. He also needs to refine his shooting mechanics, which he has already begun to do.

2) We shouldn't be measuring Rivers on production, yet somehow, everyone always seems to do so. I don't get it. He was labeled a project by Demps from day 1. He told us to not expect much from him for a year or 2, yet people still do. I just don't get it.

3) Rivers has already begun adding things to his game. The floater, his passing is better, his defense is way better, he has improved his shooting mechanics some, etc... The list goes on and on. Let the kid grow this season and stop giving him so much **** for being one of the youngest guys in the league. He is right on par with most other rookies, but his upside is significantly higher.

What you just said is dead on. I'm about to quit defending him until half way through next season haha. I expected more from him of course but what is going on does not surprise me at all. He is so young and weak but shows everything you want in a player. The work ethic is what makes me such a believer and guarantee he will be really good eventually. He has great handles, attitude, work ethic, and passing. He needs to develop a consistent shot from 3pt to the free throw line. He needs to get stronger and become a more aggressive player. Im such a believer because he has the total package and everything you want in a player as a project. Everything he is struggling at is relieving that it is just his inconsistent shot and aggressiveness which is hurting him. Im willing to wait a year or 2 and watch his progress it will be exciting!

[PelicanFever]

This entire article is objective. Read all of it and let the board know what you agree/disagree with.

It was a fair question to ask based on one single metric but we have some questions of our own in this article and we think we have come up with a clear answer to his question. If others disagree, fine, but Jason and I wanted to provide balance to the conversation. That is always our main goal

well let me restate my statement since i was not clear...i meant that it is fair to say that he is on his way based on his metric that he pointed out

[MichaelMcNamara]

well let me restate my statement since i was not clear...i meant that it is fair to say that he is on his way based on his metric that he pointed out

Fair enough. But let me also speculate that if any other rookie taken in the back end of the lottery or later had the exact same projected WARP, this article would have never been written. People say his name got him drafted higher than he deserved, while I have always maintained that all his name does is bring this kind of unwarranted attention

[BigChris504]

Man is this a real question??? Scratch that.......... Is this a real thread? Did somebody really write a column about how this dude is the worst player in the league?.......at 20? It doesn't matter if he was on the Hornets or if he was on the Raptors how can we pass judgement on not only a rookie who is "struggling" but a rookie who is "struggling" at a young age in a season that isn't even half over yet. The craziest part is that it was written by ESPN and this whole discussion based on some sort of magical metric scale, by some random ESPN columnist...... Seriously? Someone said it best earlier I rather use my eye balls to judge Austin, and personally not magical scales.

[Impose]

He'll have to do MAJOR work on that floater of his and find confidence in his shooting stroke (in regards to free throws mainly, rest will come after he fixes that, not encouraging him to be a chucker lol) before he can get this monkey off his back. Finishing his sometimes crazy drives would be nice too. I still have faith in him though. I posted not long ago how Beal / Waiters / Ross are struggling from the field too, especially weird for Beal considering hes an 84% FT shooter.

The NBA game really is just different. The rules are different, the standards are higher, the defense is bigger, stronger, rotate better. Its all about working ur *** off and also having a coaching staff that can help you / keep faith in you.

That's my main concern, is the staff giving up on Rivers like they did with JR Smith, Brandon Bass, Marcus Thornton, Heck even Collison. What did we get back for those guys compared to what they produce today?

[nikkoewan]

1) Considering how young he is, Rivers should be one of the worst players in the league. He needs to add strength to absorb contact at the rim, and that will do him wonders. He also needs to refine his shooting mechanics, which he has already begun to do.

2) We shouldn't be measuring Rivers on production, yet somehow, everyone always seems to do so. I don't get it. He was labeled a project by Demps from day 1. He told us to not expect much from him for a year or 2, yet people still do. I just don't get it.

3) Rivers has already begun adding things to his game. The floater, his passing is better, his defense is way better, he has improved his shooting mechanics some, etc... The list goes on and on. Let the kid grow this season and stop giving him so much **** for being one of the youngest guys in the league. He is right on par with most other rookies, but his upside is significantly higher.

This. He is one of the (if not THE) worst player in the league. However, we should always measure players by their production with an eye towards the future. He was labeled a project, yes. But in order to assess where he is, we need to address his production. Which brings us to nolaslim's third point - which is something I agree on 100%

His passing is getting better, his defense is better (which isn't really saying something since it was turrible to begin with but 27 games in and that's progress), his 3PT shooting is still good, his floater is also slowly becoming a weapon. I just wish Monty could loosen the reins on Rivers a bit -- let the kid just flat out play there even if it's terrible. I am of the opinion that players trained to be scorers should be allowed to play through their mistakes (especially if they have a high basketball IQ) so that they know what's right and what's wrong.

Of course, all this things I see with my 'eyes' will be pretty useless if I can't back it up with numbers. So right now? Production wise, he is one of the worst (and actually on pace to become one of the worst rookies ever) but his production is slowly creeping up, and his decision making is getting better (just by watching).

I still feel skeptical about his chances of becoming a legitimate and efficient scorer some day because he still has a LONG ways to go but I don't see him being out of the league after his rookie contract (something people are suggesting 27~28 games into his young career).

So yeah, I hated the pick but he's a Pelican now and he's our guy.

[UptownFuz504]

He didn't play JuJu because he saw him in practice everyday and he sucked! He knew exactly what to do with him and that was not play him. He did play him enough to see he was a complete embarrassment. Yes Byron didn't play the young guns sometime, but JuJu is a different story. He was 6'7 with absolutely no game was just long and could jump which could make you heralded in college sometimes. He was to dumb to have confidence. Rivers has a good coach and gets PT because he can actually play with the guys on the court. If he is like this by year 3 then yes he is bad and it wont change. Your boy JuJu got his time and it didn't change. What team does he play for?

I am a lot of things but what I am not is a JuJu fan. GuardianAngel, that hurt my feelings.

[UptownFuz504]

He is right on par with most other rookies, but his upside is significantly higher.

What are you basing this off of? I started off just not liking Rivers game at all. Not in college, summer league, pre-season, or the regular season thus far. But I constantly see statements like this and I honestly want to know what I'm missing when I watch him play.

[Inner_GI]

What are you basing this off of? I started off just not liking Rivers game at all. Not in college, summer league, pre-season, or the regular season thus far. But I constantly see statements like this and I honestly want to know what I'm missing when I watch him play.

People see that Rivers can get to the basket almost at will. Eventually you have to believe he will finish those layups or develop some court vision to kick it out to a shooter. Right now, we don't have any shooters to kick too because every team is sticking to Ryan Anderson no matter who initiates the PnR or who drives the lane.

Ryan Anderson is the only shooter on this team,

[WhoDatPelican]

What are you basing this off of? I started off just not liking Rivers game at all. Not in college, summer league, pre-season, or the regular season thus far. But I constantly see statements like this and I honestly want to know what I'm missing when I watch him play.

He developed a floater which he did not have in summer-league / pre-season.
His defensive rotations are improving greatly.
His shot selection is improving.
Passing is improving.
Going to his left (still finishing with his right though)
I dunno I've been watching him since summer league and I am noticing the work he is putting in.

I honestly feel if/when this kid puts it all together he could be a poor man's westbrook / harden. Call me crazy.