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Thread: Should we tank and become sellers at the deadline?

  1. #1

    Should we tank and become sellers at the deadline?

    MM had an interesting idea of us being sellers instead of buyers at the deadline. The more I think about it, that may be the best course of action for our future. As well as tanking this season out, especially if AD requires surgery on his hand. Which could be a blessing in disguise.

    First let's look at the reason Lebron left Cleveland both times. They were cap strapped with no picks. The team could not improve any time in the near future, they were what they were. Lebron claimed he couldn't recruit anyone to Cleveland but the truth is they never had space to pay anyone to come, outside of the Larry Hughes signing. So it was wise for Lebron to bolt.

    We actually have a chance to have a different narrative, IF we act now. We're two games away from the 6th pick. We have a much better chance of getting that, than jumping the teams ahead of us and avoiding the 8th seed. And even if we made the playoffs, you would have to be delusional to believe this is a championship team as constructed.

    A realistic view of this team is while Jrue is great for us, he is not a 2nd option. Payton is a decent starting PG. Niko and Randle are good, but it would hurt us long term to give either them a $16-18MM/yr contract. Moore is solid but is small and unathletic. Miller is a good shooter, but a terrible defender. Frank Jackson is a raw undersized SG, who lacks PG skills and feel, has a solid future but does nothing for us this season. Jah is decent, good for his salary. And nothing else is really to write home about. In short this team is built like both Cleveland teams that Lebron left, except we have the tough course of playing in the West.

    So let's say we become sellers in order to get picks and wipe the slate clean to rebuild this summer. Show AD a promising future in an effort to keep him. Because honestly if you look at what other teams are willing to give up for AD, that's the guy you want to keep at all costs, that's not the guy you trade.

    1. We trade Niko to Philly for Muscala+Patton+1st rd pick. Philly does this to bolster their roster for the playoffs.

    2. We trade Randle to Brooklyn for Dudley+top 12 protected 1st. Brooklyn does this to bolster their roster for playoffs as well.

    3. We trade Solo+Moore+Philly 1st for Lin+Anderson

    We tank out the rest of the season and we get the 6th pick. With the new changes to the lottery, that gives us a 9.5% chance of getting the 1st pick, while the worse 3 teams all have a 14% chance.

    We go into the summer with just Jrue, AD, Frank and Jah on the books. That leaves us with about $53M in potential cap space, a top 6 pick, another 1st rd pick right outside the lottery, and a high 2nd rd pick.

    In a deep free agency we could go out and get our 2nd star. I actually would put us as favorites to bringing back Boogie Cousins. If we sign him at around $25M the first season, we would have about $20-22MM after signing our draft picks + the $4MM room exception to fill out the rest of the roster.

    Fire Gentry, Bring in Rondo as your head coach. Get a full time VP of Operations. And that's a future you can market to AD.

    P.S. I would do anything to ensure we draft Ja Morant in this draft. Even if we got the #1 pick, I would trade down to the 2nd pick just to draft Morant. He is the PG that this team has always needed.

  2. #2
    The Franchise
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    this team is healthy besides AD...you make a push for the playoffs with this healthy roster and see how far we can go....

    damn a tanking and anybody who is rooting for it...

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by 6warddude View Post
    this team is healthy besides AD...you make a push for the playoffs with this healthy roster and see how far we can go....

    damn a tanking and anybody who is rooting for it...
    I hear you but make the playoffs for what? To get bounced in the 1st round? This team has too many holes, even completely healthy they cant and wont defend. What if we make playoffs and Gentry gets to stay another year? That's a net negative. What if we push for the playoffs and barely miss it? Which is highly likely, we would have a 12-14 pick instead of a top 6-7 pick and still have Moore/Hill on the books. What would that accomplish? Forget the moral victories, it's time to be realistic. The team is healthy, it's the perfect time to sell.

  4. #4
    To make the playoffs, the Pels would likely have to play .700+ basketball

    And after they lose a few more of these really tough games without AD, that means they will have to play .750+ basketball down the stretch.

    I am not saying tank. I am saying their chance at making the playoffs has already passed. Sell guys like Randle or Moore for high 2nds and/or young prospects. Start gathering assets now to add to the ones you get when you trade AD. Its too late to tank and really effect our 2019 pick, so that is not my argument. My argument is to sell off pieces that are not part of the long term anyway and add the assets to what could be a massive war chest in 7 months
    @mcnamara247

  5. #5
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    To make the playoffs, the Pels would likely have to play .700+ basketball

    And after they lose a few more of these really tough games without AD, that means they will have to play .750+ basketball down the stretch.

    I am not saying tank. I am saying their chance at making the playoffs has already passed. Sell guys like Randle or Moore for high 2nds and/or young prospects. Start gathering assets now to add to the ones you get when you trade AD. Its too late to tank and really effect our 2019 pick, so that is not my argument. My argument is to sell off pieces that are not part of the long term anyway and add the assets to what could be a massive war chest in 7 months
    This is the perfectly logical thing to do. Probably correct thing to do.

    After this weekends unsatisfying ending to a sports season, I'd be willing to throw logic out the window, go all in acquiring the best guy available before the deadline, and try to make the improbable run at the playoffs. What would Monty do?

    Not Williams, Brewster. He could have taken the easy money in Brewster's Millions, but it was a lot more fun watching him accept the challenge to win big and investing in a floating iceberg and NOT becoming Mayor of New York City.

    The journey is often more satisfying than the destination and a potential AD trade is a magic eraser this summer to reset the franchise if it doesn't work. Go all in to get Otto, Beal, Conley, Barnes, Kemba... whatever it takes. If it fails, let the next gm rebuild around Jrue, player acquired, and all the assets from the AD trade.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonPelicans View Post
    I hear you but make the playoffs for what? To get bounced in the 1st round? This team has too many holes, even completely healthy they cant and wont defend. What if we make playoffs and Gentry gets to stay another year? That's a net negative. What if we push for the playoffs and barely miss it? Which is highly likely, we would have a 12-14 pick instead of a top 6-7 pick and still have Moore/Hill on the books. What would that accomplish? Forget the moral victories, it's time to be realistic. The team is healthy, it's the perfect time to sell.

    i clearly understand you and MM points...i really do..and that maybe the best way to go.....its just that im a different type of fan...

    see i would love if the team would make the 8th seed in the playoffs every season..im the type of dude that believe once you get in the dance then you have a chance to win..anything can happen....and plus i like going to a playoff game and jazz fest on the same day if the days fall right.....and i will support and spend my money on the team because im just happy that my city have a team for me to enjoy....see im one of those weird fans lol....so im just never going to be on board with the loosing on purpose thing....

    im down with trading AD...i wish we can trade him for a disgruntle dominating guard because i believe we can build around him better than AD because AD is just not that dude to me....i would offer him to portland for dame....

    im all about pushing for the playoffs this season and if we make or miss im good with that...the only players i want us to trade this season is frazier,,,johnson,,,hill,,clark,,,diallo and try to get a playable PG and combo SG/SF to help with this season.....

    my mind is all set on trading AD next season so my mind is focus on a so so team next season but im not ready for that now..i want to see how good we can be healthy from here on out....

    and im all down with sending AD to the lakers for ball,,hart,,ingram,,kuzma,,zubac and whatever else we can get from a 3rd or 4th team if it comes down between them and boston 2 or 3 players....if AD is going to the lakers anyway then why not stripped them of their assets and players and let him and lebron build from whoever is left over from the market.....i just dont believe that top players want to play with lebron and help him win...they want to beat that dude now from the talking thats going on but we will see once free agency hits....

    again i clearly understand yall points and they may be right for the team future...im just not that dude to be down with loosing on purpose.... so like i said,,damn all of yall talking lol..we healthy so lets go fight for this playoff spot....a .700+ is a chance and thats all i need.....

  7. #7
    The Franchise
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMThreeMVP View Post
    This is the perfectly logical thing to do. Probably correct thing to do.

    After this weekends unsatisfying ending to a sports season, I'd be willing to throw logic out the window, go all in acquiring the best guy available before the deadline, and try to make the improbable run at the playoffs. What would Monty do?

    Not Williams, Brewster. He could have taken the easy money in Brewster's Millions, but it was a lot more fun watching him accept the challenge to win big and investing in a floating iceberg and NOT becoming Mayor of New York City.

    The journey is often more satisfying than the destination and a potential AD trade is a magic eraser this summer to reset the franchise if it doesn't work. Go all in to get Otto, Beal, Conley, Barnes, Kemba... whatever it takes. If it fails, let the next gm rebuild around Jrue, player acquired, and all the assets from the AD trade.
    ..yes...go all in and fight..build up the drama and fun...

  8. #8
    Charter Member Contributor PELICANSFAN's Avatar
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    I would not sell Mirotic for a scrub and a 2nd rounder. However, I would have no problem selling with players like Moore, Randle and the expirings.

  9. #9
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!! Bee-Fense's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    To make the playoffs, the Pels would likely have to play .700+ basketball

    And after they lose a few more of these really tough games without AD, that means they will have to play .750+ basketball down the stretch.

    I am not saying tank. I am saying their chance at making the playoffs has already passed. Sell guys like Randle or Moore for high 2nds and/or young prospects. Start gathering assets now to add to the ones you get when you trade AD. Its too late to tank and really effect our 2019 pick, so that is not my argument. My argument is to sell off pieces that are not part of the long term anyway and add the assets to what could be a massive war chest in 7 months
    I disagree that we should be total sellers (i.e. preparing for Davis' departure) for this year's trade deadline. From my point of view, it would be selling off prematurely. Randle is our most polarizing asset and I think at this point his value is likely to increase if he can be signed to a reasonable contract this summer which is a big if. But certainly it's possible given how many quality bigs will be UFA and there are only so many teams that will need a big and have space. Do you have an idea as to which teams might target him this summer?

    He won't be 25 until the start of next season and will only be starting his 5th full NBA season. Most players tend to continue to improve on their production at that point in their career and I don't see any reason to believe Randle wouldn't either. Will he ever be a really smart player or defensive +? Most likely not. But can he reduce some of his mistakes and continue to improve his 3? I think that possible scenario makes it a worthwhile investment to keep him in the long term plans. I think our best strategy would be to try to hold onto AD until next year's trade deadline to see if we can make the future look bright enough to keep him around. Wouldn't we also get better offers if we are seen as a serious threat (maybe not probable but at least worth considering like PG13 was in OKC) to re-sign AD?

    Also, given that Mirotic is likely to have more value in the current market than Randle (you say so in your recent post on BBS and I tend to agree), wouldn't it make more sense to trade him than Randle? I don't think as they stand that either Mirotic or Randle are good enough players to be your 3rd best player on a contender so it makes sense to me to invest in the guy that has more potential to be that one day (Randle) and get better assets from a Mirotic trade. If we can get a first rounder from Mirotic we might be able to package Randle + 2 1st rounders at next year's deadline for the guy we need to keep Davis around.

    I think a lot of the points I make are based on the premise that Randle won't be overpaid this summer and we can get him on a decent contract so perhaps we can start there. Do you think he will be overpaid this summer and if so, by whom?

  10. #10
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!! Bee-Fense's Avatar
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    For what it's worth, 538 has our playoffs odds at 43%. I think you might be overstating how many wins it will take to make the playoffs. The math seems to point that 43-45 wins might be enough.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...a-predictions/

    Also it's worth looking at their projections for both Randle and Mirotic

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ikola-mirotic/
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...julius-randle/

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Bee-Fense View Post
    For what it's worth, 538 has our playoffs odds at 43%. I think you might be overstating how many wins it will take to make the playoffs. The math seems to point that 43-45 wins might be enough.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...a-predictions/

    Also it's worth looking at their projections for both Randle and Mirotic

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ikola-mirotic/
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...julius-randle/

    I guarantee it will take 45 or 46 to make it and 47 to avoid Golden State

    And when the Pels are 23-30 when AD returns, you will need to go 24-5 to avoid Golden State or 22-7 to make the playoffs

    Ain't gonna happen

  12. #12
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!! Bee-Fense's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    I guarantee it will take 45 or 46 to make it and 47 to avoid Golden State

    And when the Pels are 23-30 when AD returns, you will need to go 24-5 to avoid Golden State or 22-7 to make the playoffs

    Ain't gonna happen
    For someone with an interest in promoting intelligent discussion among fans you aren't very open minded and overuse absolutes to make your point. How can you guarantee anything like that?

  13. #13
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!! JJackisangry's Avatar
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    Tank with trades- keep AD till the offseason and give minutes to Frank and Diallo to develop them. It makes sense, but it would be a bit scummy on our part if we kept AD knowing we were going to tank. I think it’s time to trade him (in the offseason), but not sure we want to burn bridges with him (unless he causes the stink first).

  14. #14
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    I guarantee it will take 45 or 46 to make it and 47 to avoid Golden State

    And when the Pels are 23-30 when AD returns, you will need to go 24-5 to avoid Golden State or 22-7 to make the playoffs

    Ain't gonna happen
    I'm not sure how you can predict that much separation between the 5th seed and the 8th seed, which is currently 1 game, let alone the 7th and 8th seed! And if it's the Warriors for a 3rd time in AD's career so be it. Even your assumption assumes the Pels would be coming in pretty hot at 22-7 down the stretch and I for one would look forward to the series, win or (likely) lose.

  15. #15
    The Franchise
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    I guarantee it will take 45 or 46 to make it and 47 to avoid Golden State

    And when the Pels are 23-30 when AD returns, you will need to go 24-5 to avoid Golden State or 22-7 to make the playoffs

    Ain't gonna happen

    a healthy pelicans team plus a trade for a backup PG and combo SG/SF or a harrison barnes trade can take on GS and score as high as they can...gentry rotations and defense would be the key to beating them......we play playoffs defense and score high in 7 games,,we will upset them...

  16. #16
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
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    Trade Randle, expiring, and picks for a real upgrade on the wing.

    Sign Carmelo.

    My theory - Carmelo at PF can give you the scoring that Julius gives you and similar defensive and rebounding nightmares.

    #BeGreatforthe8

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMThreeMVP View Post
    Trade Randle, expiring, and picks for a real upgrade on the wing.

    Sign Carmelo.

    My theory - Carmelo at PF can give you the scoring that Julius gives you and similar defensive and rebounding nightmares.

    #BeGreatforthe8

    i just dont see randall going anywhere....if we trade him then we have to get a big back that gentry will play....gentry has shown that when healthy he only play randall,,niko and AD....randall is also playing point forward bringing the ball up court as gentry version of green......we have to bring someone back that can replace randall 20pts a game plus be able to play the bigs for AD......this is why i dont see randall being traded....

  18. #18
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by 6warddude View Post
    i just dont see randall going anywhere....if we trade him then we have to get a big back that gentry will play....gentry has shown that when healthy he only play randall,,niko and AD....randall is also playing point forward bringing the ball up court as gentry version of green......we have to bring someone back that can replace randall 20pts a game plus be able to play the bigs for AD......this is why i dont see randall being traded....
    I'd give all of Julius's minutes to Okafor/Melo. Hell... let Melo start. But close with Niko/AD/Jrue + new wing and Elfrid.

  19. #19
    Max Contract Pelicans78's Avatar
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    Melo sucks. Randle is a much better player. Melo needs to retire so he can eat all the food he wants.


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  20. #20
    The real question is: Why does anyone really want to keep this core together?

  21. #21
    Because they won yesterday so people are in optimism mode. On February 2nd, everybody will be in seller mode

  22. #22
    Yeah, this team is like the weather. 70 degrees one day, 15 degrees the next.
    If you Jimmer it, they will come.

  23. #23
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    Because they won yesterday so people are in optimism mode. On February 2nd, everybody will be in seller mode
    For me it has less to do with the Pelicans win than with the Saints loss. My attitude towards sports is now officially "F It".

    But to me that doesn't mean embracing the logical, that means the exact opposite. Trade all the picks for the best player you can get, plant the dynamite, light the fuse, remove the oxygen from the room and let's see if there's any Ethan Hunt in this team. Is the worst thing that can happen they still miss the playoffs? Or is the worst thing that can happen that they make it to the playoffs, somehow make it to the conference finals... and then get screwed like the 2002 Kings!?

    I'm now here for the high risk stunts.

  24. #24
    Davis likely out until AS break.

    You guys still against my idea to become sellers or has reality hit yet?

  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    Davis likely out until AS break.

    You guys still against my idea to become sellers or has reality hit yet?

    Like we did for CP3 ?

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