Western Playoffs Round 2 - New Orleans Pelicans VS Golden State Warriors - Game Three
So, we're two games into the series, two games down. I don't need to tell anyone how frustrating this series has been so far, but just to run over the key facts:
- Free throw disparity is ridiculous, we are averaging 7.8 FTA per game less than in the regular season, Golden State are averaging near 7 more than their regular season average.
- We haven't been able to have anyone explode offensively yet. The closest we've come is AD with 25 in game two. That's a huge step down from the Portland series.
- The reason for this inability to score is simple: aside from solid defense, Golden State has been fouling with unbelievable frequency and stunning impunity. They foul on probably upwards of 70% of all plays, and very few of them are called.
- Draymond Green could probably punch a ref and he'd get free throws for it, at this point.
So, that's been the story @ Golden State. But now we're at home, and we're only down 2-0. All that means is that Golden State protected home court; that's what they're supposed to do. There's nothing incredible about that. We can take the chance to go 2-1, which is a pretty solid position to be in against the defending champs. They protected home court, we need to do the same.
And although the sample size is small, there's good reason to suggest that we can take this win.
- Anthony Davis averaged 27/10.9/1.8 with 1.6 stls and 2.2 blks on the road on 58% TS, with an ORTG of 114 and a DRTG of 101. At home, however, he averaged 29.3/11.2/2.9 with 1.4 stls and 2.9blks on 64% TS, with a 123 ORTG and a 104 DRTG. That means he's better at home. That's good for us.
- Similarly, Jrue Holiday averages 18.8ppg on 55% TS on the road, but 19.2 on 59% TS at home. Rondo has a net +/- of -3.7 on the road, but +4.6 at home.
So what does that tell us? Well, unsurprisingly, our guys tend to perform a little better at home than on the road. This fact is so unsurprising as to be almost pointless to highlight, but there is something that's slightly more valuable for us to look at. On the road, AD shot an average of 7.1 FTAs per game. At home, however, this number shoots up to 8.8 per game. While that's still too few, and this might not find itself reflected in the playoffs against a team like Golden State, the evidence does seem to show that he gets more free throws at home. Given that we would have almost certainly won game two if the free throws had been more even, that's a good sign.
ANYWAY, we can file all of that in the back of our minds and get into game mode! Pels come home to protect home court against Golden State, and with any luck the SKC will be absolutely insane! Jealous of everyone who gets to be there in person, I hope you guys all enjoy the game and I hope that AD and the crew can pull off the win! Let's go!
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Originally Posted by AUSSIE_PELICAN
