and, he is right
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and, he is right
Would normally agree. However, we are not in the "building a team" mode as Philly was. We have Davis and Cousins and have chosen Holiday as the 3rd. There is not time to "build a team" when you have committed to three stars. It would be nice to fill in with youth and cheaper salaries to offset the top 3 salaries, but we are not in the building mode. We are in mode of filling a team around the 3.Originally Posted by da ThRONe
First, I've never said your posts were ignorant even though I think they are. We are having a back and forth. It weakens your position when you must resort to name-calling instead of addressing my points.
Second, what does 5 years of a player matter if he sucks? That's the whole point I'm making. Statics show that mid to late 1st rounders have just as good of odds as busting as they do even becoming a rotational player. We have 1.5 years of Niko + his Birds Rights. Who knows what will happen in that time frame, maybe we end up extending him or he balls out the rest of the year and another team during the summer really wants him so we get other players that help the team.
Niko is proven that he can at the least be a 30mins per game player. I'd rather 1.5 years of that plus flexibility with moving him plus dumping Asik than 5 years of a person who could just as easily become a bust as even an off the bench rotation player.
On what planet is a rookie guranteed to be on one roster at least 5 years? That's slightly longer than the average tenure of an NBA player...period. Plus NBA players switch teamns an average 2.5 times in that time frame.
The point in building a team is to add talent no matter how it comes. Al Farouq Aminu was a high lottery pick. He came here now he's somewhere else.
It's great to want to build a team strictly with picks but the odds on that are long. It's not an optimal nor efficient approach.
Can we stop propogating this myth that a rookie can't contribute by the time Davis' contract ends. Let's look at guys drafted from 12-17 the last few years, the likely range of our pick before the Mirotic deal. I'm putting an x next to guys I'd rather have right now (considering the fact they would be on 4 year rookie contracts) than Mirotic.
2018
Kennard x
Mitchell x
Adebayo x
Justin Jackson
Justin Patton
DJ Wilson
2016 (historically bad draft)
Taurean Prince x
Papagiannis
Valentine x
Hernangomez
Gershon Yabusele
Wade Baldwin
2015
Trey Lyles (still wouldnt be mad, kid is 22 y/o and playing well)
Devin Booker x
Cameron Payne
Oubre Jr x
Rozier
Vaughn
2014
Saric x
Lavine x
Warren x
Adrien Payne
Nurkic x
James Young
2013 has Giannis, Schroder, Olynyk, Adams so I didnt just stop when I got to a bad season.
So yea considering that you would have these guys for cheap for 4 years. I'd say there is a little worse than 50% chance you draft a rotation player you'd be very happy with in this range. And most of the guys with x's next to them were key contributors by their 2nd season and that's well before Davis makes his decision. You keep this 2018 pick for at least 4 seasons beyond this one. I don't see how we keep Mirotic beyond 1 with our cap situation. A win now move would have been there next season and you leave yourself with more opportunites by having both a 2018 rookie and your 2019 first available to trade packaged with Ajinca and Asik's only 3 million gtd beyond this season. A rebuilding team prefers Asik and a pick over Mirotic. We just saw one do that, how was that ever even up to debate in the first place. And the closer Asik gets to the end of his deal the easier he becomes to trade. The closer Mirotic gets to his the harder it becomes to recoup full value for him.
Last edited by Pelifan; 02-02-2018 at 11:18 AM.
That range is irrelevant because it will not fall in there. You're starting in the lottery to pull players. Even without trading for Mirotic the Clippers are tanking so we would make the playoffs as the 8th seed. Your range should be 15+.
We are currently 17th and that is likely to rise, possibly as high as 22nd if we get the 6th seed.
When assessing Mirotic’s trade value, it’s kind of ridiculous to think of it in binary terms. If a team you are looking to acquire their asset from desires young talent and a pick, that’s pretty easy, you just package Mirotic to a third team that has that and use it in your trade.
That is what separates Mirotic from the sort of truly high risk moves Demps has made in the past, barring injury, unlike Asik/Ajinca/Evans/Jrue before this season/Hill/Gordon, you aren’t acquiring players that have to out-perform(sometimes vastly so) their current known output to be moveable and a neutral/positive asset.
So almost every player you marked as a positive are in the 12-14 range. For the Pelicans to get to that level this year with only 32 games left, we would have to either hope the bad teams start playing well or we start really tanking as we are around 18th now. It would take us playing to about 7-10 games under .500 the rest of the way to get into that range if the bad teams keep playing at the same pace (and no other teams between us now and that level start playing badly). The bottom 9-10 teams are probably "uncatchable" at this point. So, we would be having to tank to get into that 11-14 range. It could have happened, but I would hope AD and Jrue would play well enough to avoid that kind of a meltdown. I would think 16-19 could have been a reasonable range before the trade if they did not play well, but just a guess.
Being able to draft players is important regardless of small or big market. It's nicer for smaller markets cause it's straight scouting meaning market size doesn't matter. Combine that with the relative cheap cost and the risk of a draft pick is relatively low, whereas a FA comes with a higher price tag and therefore, higher risk. I'm fine with the Mirotic trade, but it needs to be mentioned that the Bulls took our deal because NO ONE ELSE was willing to deal a 1st rounder.
You have to be able to assess talent. Whether it's draft, trade, or FA. But the lowest risk acquisitions are still draft picks.
But what some seem to forget is that we attached an albatross of a contract to that 1st rounder. It was not just a 1st rounder for Mirotic. There are some that would expect to have to give up a 1st rounder just to get rid of that type of a contract.
Saying your post is ignorant isn't name calling. The idea that you are arguing based on something that's an unknown as if it's a given is an ignorant way to approach tue situation. It would be the same if I said we'll missing out on our new superstar player with this draft pick we traded. How could I possibly know.
Of course if we draft a bad player none of it matters but nothing is certain. We are talking percentages here and the benefits of hitting on a rookie. As opposed to trading for players that are already on their 2nd or 3rd contracts. Even if Niko comes here and steps his game up we are still looking at a situation where it still doesn't help us get closer to title contention.
You may want to re-read your definition of ignorant given that last sentence.
A rookie contract is guaranteed by the team for 5 years. That doesn't mean the player will last that long.
The odds of small market teams winning via FA and trades are even less which is the point. There's no easy way again just percentages and the numbers favor the draft for good reasons. That I've explained a lot around here.
When have I ever made an argument based on an unknown being a certainty?
Last edited by da ThRONe; 02-02-2018 at 01:14 PM.
Um..........
Yea, no question. At the end of the day, I think it's important to actually compare money as opposed to just players as well. I put this on another forum, but Asik has cost us:
2014: 8.3
2015: 9.2
2016: 9.9
2017: 10.5
Whereas, Sam Dekker, the 18th pick that was traded for Asik has cost:
2015: 1.6
2016: 1.7
2018: 1.8
That's painful to read.
Is fun to analyze data in a complete vacuum isn't it
There's no vacuum there. That's the actual cost of a player and a draft pick. What's your point? That it's one sample size where draft pick was better than veteran?
I dont think the Clippers plan is to tank. Sure they traded Blake but unless Lou goes they will be surprisingly competitive. We've seen this team without Cousins and it was a 35 win basketball team. I think it would have been rather easy to fall out of the playoffs. I could do 14-19 and I think you'd still be suruprised at just how many rotation players you can get in that range.
The 6th seed would be very optimistic at this point. The Blazers are playing really good basketball right now.
Last edited by Pelifan; 02-02-2018 at 01:21 PM.
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"Even if Niko comes here and steps his game up we are still looking at a situation where it still doesn't help us get closer to title contention." Bruh!!! You just need to stop. You mean to tell us that if he improves from his current 17 and 7 as a backup, that he won't help us get any closer to a title!? He's exactly who we need if he keeps up that production. You are being ignorant just for the sake of it, I think. Because if you believe what you said, then oy vey!!
For the reccord I dug up the Asik from Houston trade and Primetime and I were among the ones most vocally against it. PELICANSFAN didnt seem thrilled with the price tag. I dont trash every NO move either. And was happy to eat crow in the instance I was wrong (the Qpon from Memphis deal). I'm hoping this is one of those where I am. But I think Mirotic has to play like an allstar for that to happen and we have to make the 2nd round either this season or next season.
to be fair, 17 and 7 in 25 minutes per game in 25 games is not a large enough sample size. The last 3 years he's been a 10ppg player and more of a volume shooter and has looked really uncomfortable in his role. I think given how talented he is he is much closer to this 25 and 10 of player than the level of production he had then, but I think it's fair to be critical of what he might bring. It's not like this guy has ever been a consistent starter before, and I think it's jumping to conlusions to prorate his level of play with the Bulls in a truly breakout season accross starters minutes.
That trade for me was just bonehead overthinking. Between his deal only lasting a year + injury issues + the NBA is becoming more athletic, not bigger, it just seemed like an idiotic trade. Plus, we had no idea what to expect in that following year. That pick could have easily landed at like 5 or 6. Thank god it didn't.
This Mirotic trade is different for me because I think we can roughly state where that pick will land -- 13-21 -- and we get Asik off the books. Plus we badly need frontcourt help and it's nice to add shooting. That said, it'd be great if Mirotic goes off and we can move him ahead of next year's trade deadline cause we can't spend all our money on frontcourt players.
Yes if Niko balls out this year and next he could be on another team. Now you get my point? When you don't have control over a player long term it's a crap shoot. As I said there's no guarantee we have Boogie next year and if you could guarantee it he still may not be 100% til 2020 season. These are all the factors that should be considered. Bruh.
I hate the entire young vet moment and have been vocal. I understood the Asik signing given the fact Davis hates playing center and can't stay healthy, but I hated it as well.
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