This is not going to be a comforting thread, though maybe one with silver linings, so check your emotional biases at the door.
If you look around ESPN, Yahoo, NBA.com and NOLA.com you will find any number of stories about Cousins injury, and anecdotes about its severity compared to players like Gay, Brand, Kobe, Matthews, Dominique Wilkins etc.
And while those are case studies to take into account, some that give signs of hope or despair, they don’t exactly stack up as viable non-cherry picked sample sizes to gain us a clearer picture of Cousins probability of recovery.
Obviously the data on this is limited, given that only so many people in the NBA have suffered such an injury, and the same goes for other sports. And from the outset one should keep in mind the advances in medicine that improve recovery chances.
In my search I’ve come across one study that helps illuminate the probabilities a bit more clearly for us.
Abstract:
BACKGROUND: Most Achilles tendon ruptures are sports related. However, few studies have examined and compared the effect of surgical repair for complete ruptures on return to play (RTP), play time, and performance across multiple sports.
PURPOSE: To examine RTP and performance among professional athletes after Achilles tendon repair and compare pre- versus postoperative functional outcomes of professional athletes from different major leagues in the United States.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/28644678/RESULTS: Of 86 athletes screened, 62 met inclusion criteria including 25 NBA, 32 NFL, and 5 MLB players. Nineteen (30.6%) professional athletes with an isolated Achilles tendon rupture treated surgically were unable to return to play. Among athletes who successfully returned to play, game participation averaged 75.4% ( P < .001) and 81.9% ( P = .002) of the total games played the season before injury at 1 and 2 years postoperatively, respectively. Play time was significantly decreased and athletes performed significantly worse compared with preoperative levels at 1 and 2 years after injury ( P < .001). When players were compared with matched controls, an Achilles tendon rupture resulted in fewer games played ( P < .001), decreased play time ( P = .025), and worse performance statistics ( P < .001) at 1 year but not 2 years postoperatively ( P > .05). When individual sports were compared, NBA players were most significantly affected, experiencing significant decreases in games played, play time, and performance.
CONCLUSION: An Achilles tendon rupture is a devastating injury that prevents RTP for 30.6% of professional players. Athletes who do return play in fewer games, have less play time, and perform at a lower level than their preinjury status. However, these functional deficits are seen only at 1 year after surgery compared with matched controls, such that players who return to play can expect to perform at a level commensurate with uninjured controls 2 years postoperatively.
The key takeaways are:
- 30% of players do not ever make it back. Now I would insert my own assumption that at least some of them did not return because they were likely of a caliber of player that organizations of that sport were unwilling to pay and put faith in that injured player again. This however is not separated out in the study, so it is merely an assumption. Basically it’s unknown how many genuinely could not attempt to come back due to severity of injury, or who could not come back because no franchise of that sport offered the opportunity?
- Of all sports, the injury is most devastating to NBA players.
- Players that do return, almost universally play at a notably lower level their first year back.
- The silver lining is that of players that can return, that make it past their first year, most return to their pre-injury status by year two and beyond.
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Originally Posted by da ThRONe
