A New Defense Thread -- The Startling Impact of Rondo's Lineups (AKA Smallball)

[Bricklayer]

Following a recent spate of comments around here, I decided to go back and take a more focused look at what was going on defensively with the Pels, and specifically with Rajon Rondo's lineups. The stats were startling enough it's hard to imagine how they could be misinterpreted now well past the halfway point of the season )however see Part 3,because it's not just about Rondo)

The Bad: Rajon Rondo's lineups truly are completely disastrous defensively.

The Good: the Demarcus Cousins defensive problem may not really exist.


*A note on methodology: these player by player, lineup by lineup stats are pulled from Nbawowy.com. Note that NBAwowy seems to use slightly elevated calculations for ORTG and DRTGs -- I don't know why -- and so in order to make the ratings smoothly align with the generally accepted and widely quoted numbers used by basketballreference.com etc., I have to apply a modifier (.98125) based on NBAwoy's team ratings for the Pels vs. bballreference's team ratings for the Pels.


1) The Unavoidable Truth of the Matter

So here we go, lineups with:

Rondo OFF and Davis ON: ORTG=112.2 DRTG=103.3 (+8.9)
Rondo OFF and Cousins ON: ORTG=110.8 DRTG=103.9 (+6.9)
Rondo OFF and Cousins and Davis ON: ORTG=112.3 DRTG=101.1 (+12.2)

Rondo ON and Davis ON: ORTG=111.6 DRTG=113.2 (-1.6)
Rondo ON and Cousins ON: ORTG=111.4 DRTG=117.3 (-5.9)
Rondo ON and Cousins and Davis ON: ORTG=112.5 DRTG=114.8 (-2.3)



I mean, that's almost self explanatory. In every case the offensive rating remains virtually unchanged, and the defensive rating absolutely craters by 10-12 points. And notice, with no Rondo, Cousins lineups and Davis lineups have virtually the same DRTG. Almost the entire gap in Defensive Rating (A.D. = 107.2, Boogie = 109.3) comes from Cousins responding even worse to Rondo lineups (-13.4) than does Davis (-9.9). Cousins also spends a slightly greater percentage of his minutes (661 of 1682 = 39.2%) out on the floor with Rondo than does Davis (559 of 1454 = 38.4%) but it's pretty de minimis.


2) Could the Pels actually be a defensive monster in hiding?

Okay, so the absolutely catastrophic effect of Rondo's presence is proven beyond a shadow of anything above -- the Pels are a flat out good defensive team when he is not on the floor. Davis lineups without Rondo (103.3), Cousins without Rondo (103.9) and especially the two of them together without Rondo (101.1) are actually right there as some of the BEST defensive teams in the league. How's that for stunnning??

Check out the 5 best DRTG teams in the NBA, with the non-Rondo Pels units compared:

NBA DRTG
<-----------------------Cousins and Davis w/ no Rondo 101.1
1) Boston 101.9
2) San Antonio 103.1
<-----------------------Davis w/ no Rondo 103.3
<-----------------------Cousins w/ no Rondo 103.9
3) Oklahoma City 105.1
4) Toronto 105.6
5) Philadelphia 106.7


3) Is it Rondo himself, or the lineups he finds himself in?

With such dramatic results above, the last question becomes: is Rajon Rondo actually THAT bad all by himself that he completely craters team defense just by his presence?

My answer: it's more complex than that.

a) Rajon Rondo has played 792 minutes. Of those, 714 of them have been alongside Jrue Holiday. So what we are seeing is not just Rajon Rondo at PG causing this -- it's the smallball lineups. It's Jrue as a 2 alongside Rondo as a 1, and maybe critically Moore as a 3 (Indeed when out there with Rondo, Moore's DRTGs are 114.9, when without him they are 108.6 -- he's a terrible defensive "SF"). In those lineups the Pels are tiny across the 1/2/3 spots, and so it's not necessarily Rondo doing it, it might be the way he's being used.

b) Pace. OMG the pace. When Rondo is on the court, the pace is 99.0. That's extreme. When he's off, the pace is 96.1. And here is where the differential effects on Davis and Cousins may come in. Cousins is a big big center. Davis is of course a natural rim running lithe athlete. Check out the Pace comparisons:

Davis Pace
Rondo On: 98.0
Rondo Off: 97.1

Cousins Pace
Rondo On: 97.5
Rondo Off: 94.8

So Rondo/smallball forces A.D. to speed up only a little, but those lineups force Boogie to play at a much faster pace than he wants to otherwise.

Want to see something really extreme? Check out what Rondo does when A.D./Boogie aren't there to put the breaks on:

Rondo Pace
Davis On: 98.0
Davis Off: 101.2
Cousins On: 97.5
Cousins Off: 106.4
BOTH Off: 108.8

[AusPel]

This thread just makes me sad that Rondo isn't going to pan out like I hoped pre-season

[Mythrol]

http://www.bourbonstreetshots.com/20...nto-rotations/

You're putting a lot of effort into this, you should probably check this article out if you haven't. They cover Rondo in extreme depth.

[kidjock24]

Very good article. The black hole of Rondo and Moore are killers defensively. I believe the 3rd quarters stink because that is when coaches can make defensive adjustments and we don't have a SF right now to match up. Don't think this will get fixed until we get Solo back.

But Rondo's numbers have to be effort/getting up to speed? No way he should be the sieve on defense that he is. We know he can lock down when he wants to because he shut down Kyrie last week in the first half. Do you think he is sleepwalking/bored with regular season? I mean, he went to 2 Finals his rookie year, and looked like a different player for the Bulls in the playoffs last year.

[Pelicanidae]

Do you think he is sleepwalking/bored with regular season? I mean, he went to 2 Finals his rookie year, and looked like a different player for the Bulls in the playoffs last year.

Maybe, but frankly that's inexcusable. I don't even forgive LeBron James for not caring about the regular season, if Rajon Rondo thinks he can get away with it without scrutiny then he can think again.

[N.O.Bronco]

Posted this last night, but I think this also helps illustrate Bricklayer’s point.



- if you break things down even more you will find that the starting unit with Rondo garners the team a perfect 0.00 Net Rating.

- That same starting unit starting the third quarter farmers this team a cozy -15.1 Net Rating. Absolutely atrocious.

- Our best lineup seems to be the one where we don’t get cute and just like up our best players at their respective positions: Jrue, Moore, Miller, Davis, Cousins.

- After reading The Zach Lowe piece(might deserve its own thread) maybe we don’t need a traditional point guard like a Rondo as much as we think? Maybe a Patrick Beverly type would suffice just fine? Seeing as both in the post-Cousins trade last year, and again this year, our best lineups have not included any of our traditional point guards. Of course that’s not to say we wouldn’t be better with a CP3 or John Wall or something, I’m sure we would, but it might not be as pressing as once thought.

[N.O.Bronco]

Very good article. The black hole of Rondo and Moore are killers defensively. I believe the 3rd quarters stink because that is when coaches can make defensive adjustments and we don't have a SF right now to match up. Don't think this will get fixed until we get Solo back.

But Rondo's numbers have to be effort/getting up to speed? No way he should be the sieve on defense that he is. We know he can lock down when he wants to because he shut down Kyrie last week in the first half. Do you think he is sleepwalking/bored with regular season? I mean, he went to 2 Finals his rookie year, and looked like a different player for the Bulls in the playoffs last year.

Rondo continues to be a mystery box to me.

On the one hand you hear the praise he gets for his coach on the floor mentality and as a basketball IQ genius. Mirotic and Cousins have both considered him one of, if not their favorite teammates. And clearly he can still be that tenacious defender when he wants to be. And he is too young still to play the age card.

Moore though, like last night, seems to be fine we he isn’t playing out of position.

[kidjock24]

I agree N.O. Bronco, the numbers don't lie. Rondo is killing this team defensively, the "why" is where I'm confused because he has all the talent to be a great defender, has shown that he can be a great defender in the past, from all accounts has a great BBall IQ .....but he's dragging this team down. It's been a month so it's not that he's out of shape and should have enough history to have fit in this team by now.

[luckyman]

Maybe add a qualitative qualifier like a 1 of he's on and the other team has at least 4 of their starters also on and a 0 if not.

My guess is he's usually on the court against thee other teams best stuff. Plus he's doing exactly what he's told as far as pace. He also doesn't seem to move his feet the best around screens. As if he's hesitant on when andn when not to switch. Something the entire team still struggles with.

This continues to be a reason why they lose to bottom dwellers and cannot hold a lead.

[jprdbulldog20]

#TradeForKemba

[kinglio21093]

I still like Rondo on this team. He's a leader, something we don't have a whole lot of. I just think he's good for this team regardless. It's not like he's mind-blowingly bad, he just hasn't been as good as we hoped.

That said, if there's a better option out there for PG, you take it, and move Rondo to the bench.

[wnelson]

rondo is a defensive liability and under-performs on offense. once in a while he may get 20 assists tho.

[soggymoss]

Just curious, has Rondo always played that fast throughout his career, or is that just a Gentry thing?

If it's a Romeo thing, would there be any advantage in having him come off the bench to run the second unit, and throw Ian Clark in his place?

[reapersaurus]

Just curious, has Rondo always played that fast throughout his career, or is that just a Gentry thing?

If it's a Romeo thing, would there be any advantage in having him come off the bench to run the second unit, and throw Ian Clark in his place?

Well, Rondo DOES chase assist numbers more than most other players not named Westbrook....

The faster the pace, the more likely the guy he's passing it to will shoot it (hence, a possible assist).
The longer the pass, the more likely the player he's passing it to will shoot it (and he LOVES the long pass).

Nice to see your detailed, supported-with-facts posts again, Bricklayer.

[Pelicanidae]

It's not like he's mind-blowingly bad, he just hasn't been as good as we hoped.

Jrue, Moore, Miller, AD, Cousins - Net Rating +39.7
Rondo, Jrue, Moore, AD, Cousins - Net Rating -3.6

That qualifies as mind-blowing badness to me.

[N.O.Bronco]

Jrue, Moore, Miller, AD, Cousins - Net Rating +39.7
Rondo, Jrue, Moore, AD, Cousins - Net Rating -3.6

That qualifies as mind-blowing badness to me.

Though to be fair, I would suspect that discrepancy would take a major nose dive because you are looking at a lineup that plays primarily against non-starter lineups and is utilized by Gentry pretty much only when Miller is hot, so you aren't getting to see what it might look like against starters night in and night out. Or how that may have knockdown effects not he rotation.

Still, the problems plaguing our slow starts and third quarters are so obvious at this point, and the sievs of our defense so clear right now, that we have to do something.

[GuardianAngel25]

I just don't know how it took everyone so long to see this. It has been so obvious from the start outside of a few nice passes that Rondo is killing this team. I am a Rondo fan and liked watching him but for the past few years he has been flat out bad. Rondo plays no defense which is what made him so good. This Rondo experiment needs to end quickly and I feel like the only reason this experiment ever started was his relationship with AD and Cousins.

[Bricklayer]

I just don't know how it took everyone so long to see this. It has been so obvious from the start outside of a few nice passes that Rondo is killing this team. I am a Rondo fan and liked watching him but for the past few years he has been flat out bad. Rondo plays no defense which is what made him so good. This Rondo experiment needs to end quickly and I feel like the only reason this experiment ever started was his relationship with AD and Cousins.

Well...maybe. Because as I mentioned above, Rondo is never given any shot to work with real fullsized NBA lineups.

Rondo's played 792 minutes on the season. 714 of those have been next to Jrue, 669 with Moore. And only 58 minutes on the whole season has he got to play alongside Moore without Jrue.

Now BTW those 58 minutes were an abject failure on both sides of the ball, with an incredible DRTG of 124.4. But there is a major sample size issue there . Essentially for the entire season when you say "Rondo is on the floor" what you are really saying is that the Rondo/Jrue/E'Twaun three guard lineup is on the floor, and that set has gotten blistered defensively.

Jameer/Jrue/Moore hasn't worked at all either -- defensively it's been a little better, but it has none of the offensive magic that doubtless attracts Gentry to the three guard in the first place.

Rondo/Jrue/Moore
612 minutes 113.7 ORTG 114.0 DRTG (represents 77.3% of Rondo's minutes)

Jameer/Jrue/Moore
175 minutes 103.5 ORTG 110.3 DRTG (represents 20.6% of Jameer's minutes)

Of course it's very pertinent there that 388 of the 612 Rondo minutes with the three-guard have been with Boogie and Brow both on the floor. Jameer's 175 minutes of three guard? Exactly 1 minute with both Towers. So it's not really comparable.