I am going to blatantly violate whatever silly rule some New Orleans blogger laid down about not talking about where this is all headed until x date, because hey, I am not from New Orleans, we are nearly 1/3 of the way into the season(25 games down, 57 to go) and I really don't give much of a hoot what talking heads think anyways. So here we go:
Standings as of 12/7
Competitors continue to wobble along, with few really separating themselves. In each Conference there are 3 teams separating themselves from the pack (GSW, HOU, SAN in the West and BOS, CLE, TOR in the East), then 6 playoff competitors in the West (MIN, POR, DEN, UTH, NOP, OKC) for 5 spots, and perhaps 7 competitors in the East for their 5 spots.
West standings as of 12/7:
HOU 20-4
GSW 19-6
SAN 17-8 (+now Kawhi is back)
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MIN 15-11
POR 13-11
DEN 13-11
NOP 13-12
UTH 13-13
OKC 11-13
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LAL 9-15
LAC 8-15
PHX 9-18
MEM 8-16
SAC 7-17
DAL 7-18
Remaining 57 games
Using the rough tiers above, and similar tiers in the East (BOS, CLE, TOR = Tier 1, etc.), here is a breakdown of the Pelicans' remaining 57 games, by opponent tier and H/A:
vs Elite Opponents (HOU, GSW, SAN, BOS, CLE, TOR):
A HOU
A BOS
H HOU
A SAN
A SAN
H HOU
H BOS
A HOU
A CLE
A GSW
H SAN (last game of season, odds of Pop resting guys = 100%)
---------
4H + 7A
vs Playoff Contenders (MIN, POR, DEN, UTH, OKC, DET, MIL, WSH, IND, PHI, NYK, MIA):
A PHI
H MIL
A DEN
A WSH
A MIA
H NYK
A UTH
A MIN
H DET
H POR
A NYK
A MIN
A OKC
H UTH
H IND
A PHI
A DET
H MIA
A MIL
H WSH
H UTH
H POR
H OKC
---------
11H +12A
vs Lottery Teams (LAL, LAC, PHX, MEM, SAC, DAL, ORL, BKN, CHA, ATL, CHI):
H SAC
A ORL
H BKN
H DAL
A MEM
A ATL
H MEM
H CHI
A CHA
H LAC
H SAC
A BKN
H LAL
H PHX
A DAL
A LAC
A SAC
H CHA
H DAL
H LAL
H MEM
A PHX
A LAC
---------
13H + 10A
Necessary Records
Current 13-12 (6-6H 7-6A)
To match last year's 34-48: 21-36
To reach .500 41-41: 28-29
To reach 50 wins: 37-20
To match the franchise record 56 wins: 43-14
So, while a thousand little factors play in, who's healthy, who's hot, etc., you can start running broad calculations. For instance:
The Pels have relatively few games against elite opponent upcoming. 3 of their 4 vs. Golden State are done. They've played both vs. Toronto, Have played SAN and CLE once. But most of their 11 remaining games against elite opponents are on the road. So let's charitably say they steal 1 of the 7 games vs. elite opponents on their floors. And then that in the Smoothie center the Pels split their 4 remaining games vs. top opponents. So they go 3-8 in their remianing 11 games vs. the elite.
Then against their peers, they have 11 home games and 12 away games, so let's just say that is their record vs. their equals. 11-12
Finally though, they play a ton of their remaining games against the dregs, and most of them (13 of 23) at home. The Pels are 8-2 against under .500 teams, and those 2 losses came against Memphis and Orlando early in the year when Memphis and Orlando were playing winning ball. So I am calling for the Pels to win an overwhelming number of their games vs. the dregs the rest of the way.
Let's say they go 17-6 vs. the bad teams:
3-8 vs. elite
11-12 vs. playoff contenders
17-6 vs. lottery
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31-26 + 13-12 = 44-38
Let's say they do better still. 18-5 = 45-37. Whatever, those are playoff numbers.