The Pelicans placed 21st in total wins across the league last year. A disappointing result.
Moving on to the 2017-18 season, in a brutal Western Conference with the sole objective of making the playoffs, it's time we had a little look at what the Pelicans issues were last season to perhaps pinpoint why the team was always just out of reach of the top 8. I'm going to run through some league-wide team rankings and hopefully demonstrate where the Pelicans shortcomings lie. Hopefully this can encourage discussion about ways the team can improve in areas of significance with the roster as it is constructed. Lets have a look where the Pelicans ranked last year:
Scoring/Shooting
Offensive Efficiency: 26th (1.023)
Points Per Game: 19th (104.3)
eFG%: 19th (50.4%)
Fastbreak PPG: 7th (15)
Points from 3: 14th (28)
3pt %: 19th (35%)
Points from 2: 14th (59.6)
2pt %: 21st (49.5)
Rebounding
Offensive Per Game: 29th (8.6)
Defensive Per Game: 3rd (35.1)
Total Rebound Rate: 27th (48.2%)
Defense
Team Def Eff: 10th (1.044)
Opp PPG: 17th (106.4)
Opp FG%: 5th (48.4)
Opp eFG%: 10th (50.9)
Blocks: 5th (5.5)
Steals: 16th (7.8)
Assists & Turnovers
Ast Per Game: 12th (22.8)
Turnovers: 6th least (12.9)
Ast to TO Ratio: 5th (1.77)
To me, this paints a fairly clear picture. Defensively last years team was adequate, even good. Offensively though, the team just didn't hit shots. Despite not being able to hit shots they were in the top half of the league in assists.
They didn't turn the ball over often and also didn't foul often. They held opposing teams to quite low shooting percentages but gave up more points than they scored because of their own low efficiency and desperate lack of offensive rebounding.
The problem for the Pelicans is scoring efficiency. So lets take a closer look at personnel last year to this year to see what we might expect moving forward.
Pelicans Out (last 3 years TS% average):
Tyreke Evans (52%)
Buddy Hield (54%)
Langston Galloway (49%)
Tim Frazier (49%)
Terrence Jones (53%)
D-Mo (who cares)
Pelicans In (last 3 years TS% average):
DeMarcus Cousins (55%)
Rajon Rondo (47%)
Darius Miller (Europe <> NBA)
I think efficiency-wise the Pelicans moved fairly laterally. Cousins makes up around 25% of the Pelicans offensive production moving forward and he does it at a (slightly) more efficient rate than anyone who played for us last year. Rondo is inefficient (really inefficient) but his strength is supposed to be creating for others. It is also not determined how many minutes he will be playing per game.
So no home run on the moves we've made necessarily improving our offensive efficiency.
One key area the Pelicans can improve is by getting Anthony Davis away from shooting mid range jumpers. Yep, it's actually not a good thing. He shot 41% from between 16ft and the 3pt line and took 22% of his shots from there last season. That is actually pretty inefficient. We've all seen the plays, time and time again. Where the offense stagnates, passes to Davis at the top corner of the key, jab step, jumper. It's a bail out shot for a play that didn't work. It has to stop this year. So I'm excited about what Finch may bring to the play book to get Davis the ball closer to the rim. Cousins of course helps a lot with that because he will be the big outside of the paint, he can shoot from 3pt range, can handle/drive better than Davis and pass better than Davis. Davis needs to live in the low post/paint.
Focusing Davis closer to the paint will also hopefully help the teams terrible offensive rebounding rate. Davis' long arms and athletic edge should be enough to secure multiple tap-backs/offensive boards per game and those small plays can lead to an extra 2-4 points per game which could literally be the difference between playoffs and no playoffs (we had a -2 point differential per game average on the season).
Rage-On Rondo
Aside from resigning Jrue, Rajon (so far) is the biggest move the Pelicans have made this off-season. If you read the board you'll know I'm not overly impressed by the move, but i'll try and be fair here.
https://www.basketball-reference.com...01/splits/2017
That pre/post all star split kinda sums up how I feel about the risk/reward with Rondo. Which version of him shows up this season will have significant impact of the team. Has he genuinely improved his 3pt shot? Will teams defend him with 4ft separation? I don't think he's proven anything over the last part of last year that outweighs his career body of work. So what are we getting?
-A super willing passer
-The best court vision we've had on the team since CP3
-A guy who wants to get to the rim
-A transition specialist
-A guy you can 'help one pass away' from without being punished
-A guy who's mood translates to on court performance
-Our most senior player and only championship ring holder
I believe Rondo's role will be determined by the teams success. Because his attitude seems to stem from team success. If the Pelicans have a terrible start to the year the wheels could fall off quickly between Alvin, Rondo and the team. If the team can stay above .500 through 40 games I believe we'll get the best out of the signing.
My final point on Rondo, for now, is that he is a career 60% free throw shooter. This is not good enough to be in the game in crunch time, in close games. It's simply is a liability. But defensively you do want him on the floor to close out games.
Lineups!
My love for 2k gaming MyGM mode gets me excited about this part. Not gonna lie.
There are some X factors to be decided yet but i'll take my best stab at predicting how the minutes distribution is going to work. At the moment Cunningham is not signed so I'm leaving him out.
Cousins (34) / AD (14)
AD (22) / Diallo (12) / Hill (14)
Hill (16) / Miller or QPon (20), Moore (12)
Jrue (20)/ Grits (22) / Moore (6)
Rondo (28)/ Jrue (14) / Grits (6)
As currently constructed this is how I'd envision the time being allocated by position. Quite small-ball oriented with Hill playing a significant portion of PF where Cunningham would normally slot it. To bring better context to the above, I'll break down some lineups and when I'd play them if I had any say on coaching decisions.
Starters
Cousins/AD/Hill/Jrue/Rondo
First Rotation (6-7mins)
Cousins / Diallo / Hill / Grits / Rondo ---> AD and Jrue sit for Diallo and Grits
Time to break in Diallo. The reason I chose this timing is I believe Diallo works best with Cousins since Diallo is modelling his game after AD. I also think having a Rondo / Diallo P&R with Cousins (elbow)/Grits(corner) on the 3pt line on the strong side and Hill (corner) weak side would be effective. It is a switch in dynamic from the "AD plays entire 1st and 3rd" to playing Cousins long minutes 1st and 3rd but I think it makes sense. Using Cousins for ~6 minute stretches in the 2nd and 4th means he's less gassed come end of game. Grits replaces AD's scoring punch, Diallo feasts of Rondo's decision making for pick n pop or rolls that aren't guarded well and if the play breaks down Boogie can Iso/Post. The problem with this lineup is the drop off defensively. The team may lose 1st quarters because of this, but my design is about winning the 2nd and 4th hardcore and building momentum.
Second Rotation (9-10mins)
Cousins / Diallo / QPon or Miller / Moore / Grits ---> Hill and Rondo sit for Moore and QPon or Miller
This lineup is about Cousins facilitating from the top of the key with the best shooters on the floor spacing for him. and Diallo rim running and setting backdoor picks.
Start 2nd
AD / Hill / QPon or Miller / Moore / Jrue ---> Cousins, Diallo and Grits sit for AD, Hill and Jrue
Personally I'm not a huge fan of Hill at PF and this would probably be Cunningham's position if resigned, but for the sake of this write up with the roster as it is, Hill plays some small ball 4. Good spacing with this lineup, lots of room for Jrue and AD P&R and AD post game, Jrue needs to be aggressive during this stint.
First Rotation (4-5mins)
Cousins / AD / Hill / Jrue / Rondo --> QPon or Miller and Moore sit for Cousins and Rondo
Back to the starters and from here to half time the lineup can adjust depending on the flow of the game, who's playing well. Whoever showed they're 'on' that night can rotate in at the 6-7min mark or 8-9min mark between QPon or Miller, Grits, Moore and Diallo.
Rinse and repeat in the second half.
I may edit this later and add more, for now I'd just like guys to talk about how the Pels are going to improve over last year, because we need to.