Impose's State of the Team post (Part 1)

[Impose]

The Pelicans placed 21st in total wins across the league last year. A disappointing result.

Moving on to the 2017-18 season, in a brutal Western Conference with the sole objective of making the playoffs, it's time we had a little look at what the Pelicans issues were last season to perhaps pinpoint why the team was always just out of reach of the top 8. I'm going to run through some league-wide team rankings and hopefully demonstrate where the Pelicans shortcomings lie. Hopefully this can encourage discussion about ways the team can improve in areas of significance with the roster as it is constructed. Lets have a look where the Pelicans ranked last year:

Scoring/Shooting
Offensive Efficiency: 26th (1.023)
Points Per Game: 19th (104.3)
eFG%: 19th (50.4%)
Fastbreak PPG: 7th (15)
Points from 3: 14th (28)
3pt %: 19th (35%)
Points from 2: 14th (59.6)
2pt %: 21st (49.5)

Rebounding
Offensive Per Game: 29th (8.6)
Defensive Per Game: 3rd (35.1)
Total Rebound Rate: 27th (48.2%)

Defense
Team Def Eff: 10th (1.044)
Opp PPG: 17th (106.4)
Opp FG%: 5th (48.4)
Opp eFG%: 10th (50.9)
Blocks: 5th (5.5)
Steals: 16th (7.8)

Assists & Turnovers
Ast Per Game: 12th (22.8)
Turnovers: 6th least (12.9)
Ast to TO Ratio: 5th (1.77)

To me, this paints a fairly clear picture. Defensively last years team was adequate, even good. Offensively though, the team just didn't hit shots. Despite not being able to hit shots they were in the top half of the league in assists.

They didn't turn the ball over often and also didn't foul often. They held opposing teams to quite low shooting percentages but gave up more points than they scored because of their own low efficiency and desperate lack of offensive rebounding.

The problem for the Pelicans is scoring efficiency. So lets take a closer look at personnel last year to this year to see what we might expect moving forward.

Pelicans Out (last 3 years TS% average):
Tyreke Evans (52%)
Buddy Hield (54%)
Langston Galloway (49%)
Tim Frazier (49%)
Terrence Jones (53%)
D-Mo (who cares)

Pelicans In (last 3 years TS% average):
DeMarcus Cousins (55%)
Rajon Rondo (47%)
Darius Miller (Europe <> NBA)

I think efficiency-wise the Pelicans moved fairly laterally. Cousins makes up around 25% of the Pelicans offensive production moving forward and he does it at a (slightly) more efficient rate than anyone who played for us last year. Rondo is inefficient (really inefficient) but his strength is supposed to be creating for others. It is also not determined how many minutes he will be playing per game.

So no home run on the moves we've made necessarily improving our offensive efficiency.

One key area the Pelicans can improve is by getting Anthony Davis away from shooting mid range jumpers. Yep, it's actually not a good thing. He shot 41% from between 16ft and the 3pt line and took 22% of his shots from there last season. That is actually pretty inefficient. We've all seen the plays, time and time again. Where the offense stagnates, passes to Davis at the top corner of the key, jab step, jumper. It's a bail out shot for a play that didn't work. It has to stop this year. So I'm excited about what Finch may bring to the play book to get Davis the ball closer to the rim. Cousins of course helps a lot with that because he will be the big outside of the paint, he can shoot from 3pt range, can handle/drive better than Davis and pass better than Davis. Davis needs to live in the low post/paint.

Focusing Davis closer to the paint will also hopefully help the teams terrible offensive rebounding rate. Davis' long arms and athletic edge should be enough to secure multiple tap-backs/offensive boards per game and those small plays can lead to an extra 2-4 points per game which could literally be the difference between playoffs and no playoffs (we had a -2 point differential per game average on the season).

Rage-On Rondo
Aside from resigning Jrue, Rajon (so far) is the biggest move the Pelicans have made this off-season. If you read the board you'll know I'm not overly impressed by the move, but i'll try and be fair here.

https://www.basketball-reference.com...01/splits/2017

That pre/post all star split kinda sums up how I feel about the risk/reward with Rondo. Which version of him shows up this season will have significant impact of the team. Has he genuinely improved his 3pt shot? Will teams defend him with 4ft separation? I don't think he's proven anything over the last part of last year that outweighs his career body of work. So what are we getting?

-A super willing passer
-The best court vision we've had on the team since CP3
-A guy who wants to get to the rim
-A transition specialist
-A guy you can 'help one pass away' from without being punished
-A guy who's mood translates to on court performance
-Our most senior player and only championship ring holder

I believe Rondo's role will be determined by the teams success. Because his attitude seems to stem from team success. If the Pelicans have a terrible start to the year the wheels could fall off quickly between Alvin, Rondo and the team. If the team can stay above .500 through 40 games I believe we'll get the best out of the signing.

My final point on Rondo, for now, is that he is a career 60% free throw shooter. This is not good enough to be in the game in crunch time, in close games. It's simply is a liability. But defensively you do want him on the floor to close out games.


Lineups!

My love for 2k gaming MyGM mode gets me excited about this part. Not gonna lie.

There are some X factors to be decided yet but i'll take my best stab at predicting how the minutes distribution is going to work. At the moment Cunningham is not signed so I'm leaving him out.

Cousins (34) / AD (14)
AD (22) / Diallo (12) / Hill (14)
Hill (16) / Miller or QPon (20), Moore (12)
Jrue (20)/ Grits (22) / Moore (6)
Rondo (28)/ Jrue (14) / Grits (6)

As currently constructed this is how I'd envision the time being allocated by position. Quite small-ball oriented with Hill playing a significant portion of PF where Cunningham would normally slot it. To bring better context to the above, I'll break down some lineups and when I'd play them if I had any say on coaching decisions.

Starters
Cousins/AD/Hill/Jrue/Rondo

First Rotation (6-7mins)
Cousins / Diallo / Hill / Grits / Rondo ---> AD and Jrue sit for Diallo and Grits

Time to break in Diallo. The reason I chose this timing is I believe Diallo works best with Cousins since Diallo is modelling his game after AD. I also think having a Rondo / Diallo P&R with Cousins (elbow)/Grits(corner) on the 3pt line on the strong side and Hill (corner) weak side would be effective. It is a switch in dynamic from the "AD plays entire 1st and 3rd" to playing Cousins long minutes 1st and 3rd but I think it makes sense. Using Cousins for ~6 minute stretches in the 2nd and 4th means he's less gassed come end of game. Grits replaces AD's scoring punch, Diallo feasts of Rondo's decision making for pick n pop or rolls that aren't guarded well and if the play breaks down Boogie can Iso/Post. The problem with this lineup is the drop off defensively. The team may lose 1st quarters because of this, but my design is about winning the 2nd and 4th hardcore and building momentum.

Second Rotation (9-10mins)
Cousins / Diallo / QPon or Miller / Moore / Grits ---> Hill and Rondo sit for Moore and QPon or Miller

This lineup is about Cousins facilitating from the top of the key with the best shooters on the floor spacing for him. and Diallo rim running and setting backdoor picks.

Start 2nd
AD / Hill / QPon or Miller / Moore / Jrue ---> Cousins, Diallo and Grits sit for AD, Hill and Jrue

Personally I'm not a huge fan of Hill at PF and this would probably be Cunningham's position if resigned, but for the sake of this write up with the roster as it is, Hill plays some small ball 4. Good spacing with this lineup, lots of room for Jrue and AD P&R and AD post game, Jrue needs to be aggressive during this stint.

First Rotation (4-5mins)
Cousins / AD / Hill / Jrue / Rondo --> QPon or Miller and Moore sit for Cousins and Rondo

Back to the starters and from here to half time the lineup can adjust depending on the flow of the game, who's playing well. Whoever showed they're 'on' that night can rotate in at the 6-7min mark or 8-9min mark between QPon or Miller, Grits, Moore and Diallo.

Rinse and repeat in the second half.



I may edit this later and add more, for now I'd just like guys to talk about how the Pels are going to improve over last year, because we need to.

[msusousaphone]

I guess we'll see what Finch gets us doing.

It was a bit infuriating watching us after the Boogie trade. It was like watching the other team pack the paint to keep our bigs busy. Constantly four to five guys defending in the paint. I've not really seen that before. Slowed them down. And we bricked a lot of open threes. The easy solution would be to add sharpshooters to keep the defense honest. We haven't really done that. But I'm not thinking we'll just continue like we were doing last season. Putting up brick after brick. So it's kind of a waiting game to see what this new system is and how it opens up our offense.

[Topdawg26]

Wow! This is some good stuff Impose!

[luckyman]

Coaching and familiarity can cure that. Also Rondo's bbal iq should help greatly.

I mean last year against Miami, Spoelstra put Luke Babbit on Cousins and the Pelicans just ignored it most of the game. It's the type of thing you attack play after play until you force Miami to adjust.

This team was bad on offense because it just wasn't very smart on that side. No coaches on the court. No telling how effective Gentry is as a communicator.

We'll just have to see what Finch brings. This team should NOT struggle to score. But it will if the mental part of this game continues to lag.

[msw2024]

I think being able to have a combo of Jrue/Davis and Rondo/Cousins on the court at all time will help our inefficiency last year. Davis needs a guard playing with him to help create shots or he tends to depend on his jumper to often. If 2 of Rondo, Jrue, Boogie, and AD are on the court almost the whole game, those long 3-4 minutes dry spells will not happen as often. I used to get so frustrated when Gentry had to bring AD or Jrue back in early because we could not score in late third/early 4th. Then they were gassed by the end of the 4th when the game is critical and every play counts.

[Impose]

I guess we'll see what Finch gets us doing.

It was a bit infuriating watching us after the Boogie trade. It was like watching the other team pack the paint to keep our bigs busy. Constantly four to five guys defending in the paint. I've not really seen that before. Slowed them down. And we bricked a lot of open threes. The easy solution would be to add sharpshooters to keep the defense honest. We haven't really done that. But I'm not thinking we'll just continue like we were doing last season. Putting up brick after brick. So it's kind of a waiting game to see what this new system is and how it opens up our offense.

Well, from what I've seen Boogie and Ad are shooting a lot of 3's this offseason. Maybe Cousins picks it up to ~40% and AD gets above 35% then things might change. I've been thinking a lot about rotations and i'll be editing this post over the weekend to include some ideas of how the Pels can avoid this scenario they experienced late last year.

[Impose]

Wow! This is some good stuff Impose!

Thanks dude! Hope you check back in when part 2, 3, and further get added :fistbump:

[Impose]

Coaching and familiarity can cure that. Also Rondo's bbal iq should help greatly.

I mean last year against Miami, Spoelstra put Luke Babbit on Cousins and the Pelicans just ignored it most of the game. It's the type of thing you attack play after play until you force Miami to adjust.

This team was bad on offense because it just wasn't very smart on that side. No coaches on the court. No telling how effective Gentry is as a communicator.

We'll just have to see what Finch brings. This team should NOT struggle to score. But it will if the mental part of this game continues to lag.

I got super frustrated with the tentative post passing from last year, especially Jrue. It really seemed like he didn't have a feel for when the big had sealed the defender, no flow to his game there. Rondo should help that aspect but how much of our game is going to be low post feeds now? Jrue is also likely to spend a lot of time at point still with Moore and Grits on the roster, unless that changes those guys will be coming in while either Rondo or Jrue sit.

[Impose]

I think being able to have a combo of Jrue/Davis and Rondo/Cousins on the court at all time will help our inefficiency last year. Davis needs a guard playing with him to help create shots or he tends to depend on his jumper to often. If 2 of Rondo, Jrue, Boogie, and AD are on the court almost the whole game, those long 3-4 minutes dry spells will not happen as often. I used to get so frustrated when Gentry had to bring AD or Jrue back in early because we could not score in late third/early 4th. Then they were gassed by the end of the 4th when the game is critical and every play counts.

3rd cog definitely needed for every lineup. it'll be Jrue and Grits being the other threat IMO. How they balance it is yet to be seen and i'll speculate on that a bit later but you can't just run Rondo/Boogie or AD/Jrue with stagnant so-so 3pt shooters and expect a great offense. It's nice we will have some consistent high level presence on the floor the whole game, its another beast to stay hard to read. Team scouting is big in the NBA, everyone needs to be involved to be a threat.

[luigi modelo]

good analysis!

[PolishFan]

Coaching and familiarity can cure that. Also Rondo's bbal iq should help greatly.

I mean last year against Miami, Spoelstra put Luke Babbit on Cousins and the Pelicans just ignored it most of the game. It's the type of thing you attack play after play until you force Miami to adjust.

This team was bad on offense because it just wasn't very smart on that side. No coaches on the court. No telling how effective Gentry is as a communicator.

We'll just have to see what Finch brings. This team should NOT struggle to score. But it will if the mental part of this game continues to lag.

This is what I think too. Also great post Impose

[Mr. West]

With Boogie and Davis the full season and Holiday in more of an attacking role, I think the offense will improve. The thing that has to change, however, is that 3 pt. percentage. Darius Miller might be our best pure shooter on the team right now and we haven't really replaced Galloway's "shooters shoot" mindset from last season that kept the D a bit more honest AND Cunningham hasn't been re-signed either. Cuz and Holiday can hit 3's but you don't want them building their games around the arc to compensate for a lack of space.

If the Pels fall short of our goals this year, my money is on lack of shooting.

Edit: also, great analysis. I love looking at these stats without the hard work of finding the relevant stuff. It's nice to be spoon fed once in a while

[PolishFan]

With Boogie and Davis the full season and Holiday in more of an attacking role, I think the offense will improve. The thing that has to change, however, is that 3 pt. percentage. Darius Miller might be our best pure shooter on the team right now and we haven't really replaced Galloway's "shooters shoot" mindset from last season that kept the D a bit more honest AND Cunningham hasn't been re-signed either. Cuz and Holiday can hit 3's but you don't want them building their games around the arc to compensate for a lack of space.

If the Pels fall short of our goals this year, my money is on lack of shooting.

Edit: also, great analysis. I love looking at these stats without the hard work of finding the relevant stuff. It's nice to be spoon fed once in a while

Yes, we need shooting. Anybody who wants to compete against the Warriors needs shooting. I think; however, that if Pels stay on the right course they could become a real contender in 2 or 3 years. At that time Warriors might be declining and the shooting wont be that crucial. How long can they keep all these guys together? Eventually some of them will go for more money. Man, I want the old style NBA to come back.

[luckyman]

The most important thing that needs to change is aggressive attacking from the guards and wings. Otherwise the 3 pt shots will be guarded regardless.

Jrue has never been consistent using his quickness and size for that purpose. A lot of times he just slow prods, which does not put pressure on a defense. Hopefully Rondo will attack. Hill, when he decided to do it, resulted in major success.

[Bricklayer]

at the significant risk of sounding patronizing, this is definitely the type of thread starter of which this board could use more.

BTW, since the Cousins/A.D. pairing already had a dry run, with Holiday even, after the All Star break:

Post All-Star break Pts/TS%
Davis 28.6pts .582TS%
Cousins 24.4pts .564TS%
Holiday 13.8pts .499TS%


The problem is not with the Big 2 -- having two guys average that many points on something like a combined .573TS% is pretty much as good or better than what any team put forward last year but Golden State (Durant Curry) and Cleveland (LeBron, Kyrie). Only 3 teams had team TS% greater than .580 (GSW, CLE, HOU), which is a historically high number btw attributable directly to 3pt spamming.

All the teams with 2 20pt scorers last season:
Warriors (Curry 25.3pts .624TS%, Durant 25.1pts .651TS%)
Cavaliers (James 26.4pts .619TS%, Irving 25.2pts .580TS%)
Pelicans (Davis 28.6pts .582TS%, Cousins 24.4pts .564TS%)
Bucks (Antetokounmpo 22.9pts .599TS%, Parker 20.1pts .563TS%)
Timberwolves (Towns 25.1pts .618TS%, Wiggins 23.6pts .534TS%)
Suns (Booker 22.1pts .531TS%, Bledsoe 21.1pts .563TS%)
Blazers (Lillard 27.0pts .586TS%, McCollum 23.0pts .585TS%)
Raptors (DeRozan 27.3pts .552TS%, Lowry 22.4pts .623TS%)
Wizards (Wall 23.1pts .541TS%, Beal 23.1pts .604TS%)

So the Big 2 should very much have the Pels in the efficiency game. The test is going to be elsewhere. Obviously Jrue has to figure out how to play with bigs, he can't be carrying a .499TS% at $25mil per. Especially since Rondo will also always be around .500, albeit on low volume. This is where the continuing need for a fw high volume 3pt shooters comes into play. 3pt shooting has become almost a TS% cheat. Get your scrubs concentrating on it, and they can provide "efficient" support. Boogie and Davis represent about half of your offense on every night. If they combine for .573TS% that would have been right there at roughly tied for 4th in the league as a team last year. The scrubs can either support that, or pull it down by running around with the other half of the offense firing at 53% or some such.

[jegirouard]

Great and very refreshing thread with excellent information and analysis. Can't wait for parts 2 and 3.

[msw2024]

3rd cog definitely needed for every lineup. it'll be Jrue and Grits being the other threat IMO. How they balance it is yet to be seen and i'll speculate on that a bit later but you can't just run Rondo/Boogie or AD/Jrue with stagnant so-so 3pt shooters and expect a great offense. It's nice we will have some consistent high level presence on the floor the whole game, its another beast to stay hard to read. Team scouting is big in the NBA, everyone needs to be involved to be a threat.

I agree with shooting and hoping that we can improve on that point, but with our cap situation right now it is very hard...Not many shooters are out there with the money we have so basically hoping players shoot better this year or QPON comes on strong. Would love to sign Afflalo or Morrow could help, but those type of players are all we can get without trading some other pieces like Asik or Ajinca and use that money to get shooters. Also, great post...Pelicans Report needs these type of posts.

[Impose]

I agree with shooting and hoping that we can improve on that point, but with our cap situation right now it is very hard...Not many shooters are out there with the money we have so basically hoping players shoot better this year or QPON comes on strong. Would love to sign Afflalo or Morrow could help, but those type of players are all we can get without trading some other pieces like Asik or Ajinca and use that money to get shooters. Also, great post...Pelicans Report needs these type of posts.

Yea, I've been thinking a bit outside the box about this and came up with an idea most will hate, but could be good... Diallo to Brooklyn for LaVert. Then focus on Moore for a big from a team that is begging for a backup SG.

Trying to swing Moore in to a taller shooter just isn't going to work IMO. If there is a Diallo for SG/SF on rookie contract deal out there it might be worth it. Working supply/demand to create value.