Jrue Holiday signs 5 year 126 Mil deal with Pels

[ArronRx]

Rather have Teague at 19 million than Jrue at 25 million


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Yeah but who is to say you could have Teague at 19mil. Maybe we get in a bidding war over him and then the amount is more like 21 - 23mil. Would you be happy with that??

[UNO Gracias]

http://en.hispanosnba.com/salaries/t...leans-pelicans

NEW ORLEANS PELICANS TEAM SALARIES 2017-18 SEASON
PLAYER 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Jrue Holiday $21,724,138 $23,462,069 $25,200,000 $26,937,931 $28,675,862

That's not so bad.

I'm interested to see what Hill and Lowery go for.

[hornetsrebirth]

I don't think he's good value at 22 million. At best he's an unreliable above average player.


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From the guy who would rather have Teague than Jrue


Career stats

Teague: 12.6 ppg, 2.4 rbg, 5.5 apg

Jrue: 14.3 ppg, 3.6 rbg, 6.2 apg

Y'all are the worst

[N.O.Bronco]

Career numbers are never a good indicator for present day comparisons. By that logic we would be fools not to sign Vince Carter to a moderately rich deal with his career 18pts, 5.5reb, and 3 assists.


Truth is Teague's recent output is equal and even better in at least one important area like getting to the line(2.5 on 70% vs 5.1 on 86% last season).
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...01&idx=players

Basically the best argument one could make is that Jrue is 2 years younger. But that is a pretty big gap between where he is and where he would need to be to justify this overpay.

[Pelicans78]

From the guy who would rather have Teague than Jrue


Career stats

Teague: 12.6 ppg, 2.4 rbg, 5.5 apg

Jrue: 14.3 ppg, 3.6 rbg, 6.2 apg

Y'all are the worst

Those numbers don't tell the whole story. It's like using batting average in baseball as the main stat when it's shown to be obsolete. They both came in the league in 2009 and Teague has averaged a higher PER and higher win shares per 48 minutes because he has a higher assist rate and shoots more efficiently from the field. Plus Teague has been more durable. Now Jrue has more physical tools but he hasn't consistently put it together on the floor.


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[luckyman]

Those numbers don't tell the whole story. It's like using batting average in baseball as the main stat when it's shown to be obsolete. They both came in the league in 2009 and Teague has averaged a higher PER and higher win shares per 48 minutes because he has a higher assist rate and shoots more efficiently from the field. Plus Teague has been more durable. Now Jrue has more physical tools but he hasn't consistently put it together on the floor.


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Teague has done that against what competition? He's spent his entire career playing 3/4 games against the east.

I'm a Teague fan, but his market value is and was never going to be the same as Jrue's.

[hornetsrebirth]

Career numbers are never a good indicator for present day comparisons. By that logic we would be fools not to sign Vince Carter to a moderately rich deal with his career 18pts, 5.5reb, and 3 assists.

Carter is over 40 years old, way past his prime therefore it would not be reasonable to expect him to put up numbers close to his career average. Jrue is just entering his prime. Its not reasonable to expect him to regress from his career numbers, much more likely for him to improve upon them. Your logic is flawed for sure, but mine is not. A larger sample size is a better indication of the player. Jrue missed a significant portion of 2016-17 because his pregnant wife had brain cancer. Then when he returned he was moved around from PG to SG, and had drastic lineup changes affecting team chemistry. Career stats are a better indication. He is a better player than Teague, point blank. We can bump this thread next offseason if you want.

[Mythrol]

If the way Jrue's contract is structured is true, meaning it starts low and increases 8% a year then it's clear Dell is banking on Jrue opting out of his last season for a long term deal. It also helps us avoid any luxury tax issues this season.

I see the logic behind it. I still would have rather a decreasing contract because it would have been much easier to trade later. Jrue probably isn't a tradable contract now unless he returns to his All Star level of play, but if he does that he's worth it.

[N.O.Bronco]

Carter is over 40 years old, way past his prime therefore it would not be reasonable to expect him to put up numbers close to his career average. Jrue is just entering his prime. Its not reasonable to expect him to regress from his career numbers, much more likely for him to improve upon them. Your logic is flawed for sure, but mine is not. A larger sample size is a better indication of the player. Jrue missed a significant portion of 2016-17 because his pregnant wife had brain cancer. Then when he returned he was moved around from PG to SG, and had drastic lineup changes affecting team chemistry. Career stats are a better indication. He is a better player than Teague, point blank. We can bump this thread next offseason if you want.

My logic was pointing out your illogic.

In no capacity is using general career numbers for projecting present and immediate output a superior or even competent way of determining value or present skill. If you wanted to look at a players legacy, sure, fine. But you are trying to make the case that Jrue is 1.) superior to Teague right now and 2.) That his contract is justifiable.

On neither account does posting career numbers adequately make that case. Career numbers are inherently flawed because they are a poor representation of a players current output and context. Which is why I illustrated with Vince Carter. It should of made this abundantly clear but apparently it is still not getting through. Career numbers are not reliable indicators of present output compared to any number of alternatives.

In almost every relative metric Teague has been the superior player recently. Higher AST%, better Net Rating, higher TS%, higher REB%, equal opposition FG%. The one argument you have is upside, which gets back to the core Gentry flaw in his contracts, like with Gordon, like Ajinca, like Asik, like Evans; paying for guys based on what you hope they can elevate their game and do in the future, not what they have actually done in the present. But that is not convincing to me, especially given Demps track record and what little growth I have seen from Jrue over his career.

Jrue is 27. He is not a fiery competitor or someone that has shown the capacity to add drastic new wrinkles to his game over the years. Odds are what you see now is what you get the next 3 years followed by a slow decline subsequently as he gets into his 30's. Likely Finch and some better shooters can trend his numbers up a little bit and maybe a cultural shift with Boogie and wanting playoffs will add a bit more consistency. But that is about the extent I will go. Shorter years and lower money is about the only case I can convince myself that Jrue's contract would not be an overpay. At best you have made the case Jrue is slightly, marginally better then Teague, that does not constitute 6 million more dollars and 2 extra years.

[PelsFan2313]

If you're going to make an argument for Jrue, particularly against Teague, you would think defense would enter the conversation at some point. Jrue, at best, is an average starting point guard from an offensive standpoint.

[luckyman]

If you're going to make an argument for Jrue, particularly against Teague, you would think defense would enter the conversation at some point. Jrue, at best, is an average starting point guard from an offensive standpoint.

Jrue is inconsistent. Teague is consistent. As such Jrue has played like a perrenial all star on both ends, but also has a habit of disappearing on both ends.

The off seasons rehabbing or dealing with personal issues haven't helped. Hopefully this off season he can tone up his game and be more consistent and confident. If he does then he is a notch above Teague in every way.

[PELICANSFAN]

If you're going to make an argument for Jrue, particularly against Teague, you would think defense would enter the conversation at some point. Jrue, at best, is an average starting point guard from an offensive standpoint.

The real issue is that we could sign Jrue with bird rights and could not have signed Teague with cap room (without significant roster adjustments).

[luckyman]

Prime example I'd love to see Jrue use more of that bully ball he's done before. Even post up like Wade. He's done it, but not consistently. He can do that against pretty much any point guard. Sometimes he's excellent at it. Other times he misses the point blank layup or kicks the ball out of bounds.

Either way that isn't an option you have with Teague.

[N.O.Bronco]

My biggest sticking point is that consistency. If we at least got a Patrick Beverly type consistency on defense from Jrue, the contract would be a lot more palatable.

I honestly do not expect that consistency to change much though, which is unfortunate.

The guy just got paid and he is 27 and not exactly shown the sort of growth you would hope for a guy with the physical tools Jrue has. Frankly his brother is somewhat similar as well. Battling effort and consistency issues his whole NBA career. Which is what makes me very nervous having both of them.

The only silver lining I see is Finch. If we can successfully transition to an offense that runs through Davis and Boogie as the primary facilitators, that should help Jrue a decent bit. Since he really does not have that true PG mentality that I would say Teague does have. But if you are relegating him to a secondary ball handler and letting someone more adept at running the offense facilitate, I think Jrue can be forced into bit more consistency. Hopefully.

[PelsFan2313]

The real issue is that we could sign Jrue with bird rights and could not have signed Teague with cap room (without significant roster adjustments).

I get that. I wasn't referring to the possibility of signing Teague.

I was just alluding to the ongoing debate of who was better between the two since posters are using Teague's contract to evaluate the value of Jrue's contract. You can't have that debate without talking about Jrue's strong point, which is his defensive play and versatility.

[N.O.Bronco]

Prime example I'd love to see Jrue use more of that bully ball he's done before. Even post up like Wade. He's done it, but not consistently. He can do that against pretty much any point guard. Sometimes he's excellent at it. Other times he misses the point blank layup or kicks the ball out of bounds.

Either way that isn't an option you have with Teague.

I would say that is also pretty maddening. Teague averaged 5FTA's a game. Jrue averaged 2.5 last season. Why??

He has the physical tools to be one of the best inside players in the game. Yet he is one of the worst at actually drawing contact or using that physical toolset offensively. He plays like a guard 5 inches shorter and 15 pounds lighter then he is.

[hornetsrebirth]

My logic was pointing out your illogic.

In no capacity is using general career numbers for projecting present and immediate output a superior or even competent way of determining value or present skill. If you wanted to look at a players legacy, sure, fine. But you are trying to make the case that Jrue is 1.) superior to Teague right now and 2.) That his contract is justifiable.

On neither account does posting career numbers adequately make that case. Career numbers are inherently flawed because they are a poor representation of a players current output and context. Which is why I illustrated with Vince Carter. It should of made this abundantly clear but apparently it is still not getting through. Career numbers are not reliable indicators of present output compared to any number of alternatives.

Nope. You built a strawman with Vince Carter and I dismantled it. Carter is so far past his prime that you could never expect him to put up numbers close to his career average at this point. Jrue is firmly in the midst of his prime. There is no reason to expect him to regress from his career averages at this point, its much more likely for him to improve on those numbers. So your example just doesn't work. That is what should be abundantly clear to you.

When evaluating anything, more data points = more accurate evaluation. You want to dismiss career averages in favor of using single outlier season. Its not more valid than career averages in this instance.

In almost every relative metric Teague has been the superior player recently. Higher AST%, better Net Rating, higher TS%, higher REB%, equal opposition FG%. The one argument you have is upside, which gets back to the core Gentry flaw in his contracts, like with Gordon, like Ajinca, like Asik, like Evans; paying for guys based on what you hope they can elevate their game and do in the future, not what they have actually done in the present. But that is not convincing to me, especially given Demps track record and what little growth I have seen from Jrue over his career.

Jrue is 27. He is not a fiery competitor or someone that has shown the capacity to add drastic new wrinkles to his game over the years. Odds are what you see now is what you get the next 3 years followed by a slow decline subsequently as he gets into his 30's. Likely Finch and some better shooters can trend his numbers up a little bit and maybe a cultural shift with Boogie and wanting playoffs will add a bit more consistency. But that is about the extent I will go. Shorter years and lower money is about the only case I can convince myself that Jrue's contract would not be an overpay. At best you have made the case Jrue is slightly, marginally better then Teague, that does not constitute 6 million more dollars and 2 extra years.

Nope, I am not making an argument based on potential. I'm making an argument based on past performance for projecting who is the better player. Jrue is better than Teague.

[PelsFan2313]

My biggest sticking point is that consistency. If we at least got a Patrick Beverly type consistency on defense from Jrue, the contract would be a lot more palatable.

I honestly do not expect that consistency to change much though, which is unfortunate.

The guy just got paid and he is 27 and not exactly shown the sort of growth you would hope for a guy with the physical tools Jrue has. Frankly his brother is somewhat similar as well. Battling effort and consistency issues his whole NBA career. Which is what makes me very nervous having both of them.

The only silver lining I see is Finch. If we can successfully transition to an offense that runs through Davis and Boogie as the primary facilitators, that should help Jrue a decent bit. Since he really does not have that true PG mentality that I would say Teague does have. But if you are relegating him to a secondary ball handler and letting someone more adept at running the offense facilitate, I think Jrue can be forced into bit more consistency. Hopefully.

I think we can all agree there.

[N.O.Bronco]

Nope. You built a strawman with Vince Carter and I dismantled it. Carter is so far past his prime that you could never expect him to put up numbers close to his career average at this point. Jrue is firmly in the midst of his prime. There is no reason to expect him to regress from his career averages at this point, its much more likely for him to improve on those numbers. So your example just doesn't work. That is what should be abundantly clear to you.

You just made my point and don't even realize it. I'll give you some time to think that over and figure out how that could be.

It has to do with incorporating data that is no longer relevant to determining a player's current output. Second hint, how many minutes did Jrue vs Teague play in their first couple seasons? What is their career MPG differential? What do you think a discrepancy like that does to overall averages on basic stats like PPG, Assists and Rebounds? Which is all you seem interested in incorporating into your calculus?

Nope, I am not making an argument based on potential. I'm making an argument based on past performance for projecting who is the better player. Jrue is better than Teague.

You just did.

There is no reason to expect him to regress from his career averages at this point, its much more likely for him to improve on those numbers

[Mythrol]

My biggest sticking point is that consistency. If we at least got a Patrick Beverly type consistency on defense from Jrue, the contract would be a lot more palatable.

I honestly do not expect that consistency to change much though, which is unfortunate.

The guy just got paid and he is 27 and not exactly shown the sort of growth you would hope for a guy with the physical tools Jrue has. Frankly his brother is somewhat similar as well. Battling effort and consistency issues his whole NBA career. Which is what makes me very nervous having both of them.

The only silver lining I see is Finch. If we can successfully transition to an offense that runs through Davis and Boogie as the primary facilitators, that should help Jrue a decent bit. Since he really does not have that true PG mentality that I would say Teague does have. But if you are relegating him to a secondary ball handler and letting someone more adept at running the offense facilitate, I think Jrue can be forced into bit more consistency. Hopefully.

I think this is a very fair assessment of Jrue as a player. Hopefully injuries and other personal matters were the issue and a full training camp will help improve this along with Finch, etc.

[UNO Gracias]

Am I reading the argument correctly? One guy is using Teague and Jrue's career stats as proof as to why Jrue is better, and NO Bronco showed that this logic is flawed as it would also mean that Vince Carter would deserve a large contract because of his career numbers, and the first poster said "no, that logic makes no sense." Is that what just happened?

[GuardianAngel25]

WoW we got Jrue for a steal compared to what Lowry just got paid. 3 year $100 million and considering age, potential, and over talent I take Jrue over Lowry especially at that price. Jrue contract is going to look very good over the next few years especially if he just becomes a more consistent player much less even taking his game to another level which I believe he is capable of.

[GuardianAngel25]

If anybody here actually watched Teague from time to time instead of looking at his stats I think you might feel a little different. The guy is very underwhelming and doesn't have near the talent Jrue does. Teague had a nice stretch of health which Jrue has not. He is finally going into a full summer for the 2nd year fully healthy. Have Teague not be able to do basketball activities do to an injury that takes lots of rest and tell me he does what Jrue has. If anybody actually watched Teague with the same investment into his team as they do with Jrue I guarantee not one would be wishing we had him over Jrue. Plus like someone said we did not hold Teagues bird rights which changes a lot.

[HoustonPelicans]

Jrue is better than Teague. Why is this even a debate?

[GuardianAngel25]

Jrue is better than Teague. Why is this even a debate?

I have absolutely no idea... only thing I can come up with is they have never watched Teague but a handful of times. Teague is a very frustrating player to watch at times and I don't have near the investment to what teams he is on to get upset. Jrue is on a different level then Teague and when it comes to potential it's not even close.