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Thread: Assessing the roster core and the need for the offseason

  1. #1

    Pelicans Assessing the roster core and the need for the offseason

    Since the team is already on vacation, I think it's the perfect time to asses the current state of the roster and to try to discuss about our vision of the team moving forward and come up with a plan moving forward.

    First let's tackle the case of our two franchise players on offense since it was the biggest issue since the trade :

    AD :
    In every catergory I will list : PPP frequency and percentile (all from nba.com/stats)
    Transition : 1.20 9.3% 70th
    Isolation : 0.87 9.7% 58th
    P&R ball handler : 0.77 1% 34th
    P&R roll man : 1.1 24.5% 66th
    Post up : 0.9 15.5% 57th
    Spot up : 0.93 12.4% 42th
    Handoff : 1.49 2.3% 99th
    Cut : 1.43 6.5% 83th
    Off screen : 0.89 7.2% 42th
    Putbacks : 1.34 6.6% 90th

    So he's great when cutting and with putbacks. Also scores well as roll man and in transition. So to sum it up, AD is at his best when he plays off ball.

    Cousins :
    On his 17 games with the pels :

    Transition : 0.79 7.8% 8th
    Isolation : 0.88 16.4% 60th
    P&R ball handler : 0.85 3.1% 63th
    P&R roll man : 0.89 14.9% 24th
    Post up : 0.99 21.8% 80th
    Spot up : 1.26 18% 95th
    Cut : 1.08 3.1% 21th
    Off screen :1.7 2.4% 99th
    Putbacks : 1.11 6.4% 57th

    Impressive how he's effective in some specific area and clearly not your typical big man. He can be both great as a spot up threat off the ball but also he show real skills to play with the ball in his hands as we can see in his number as P&R handler and in post ups.

    It's really interesting because with this simple analysis we can see that AD and Boogie compliment well each other and should work at their best with the ball in Cousins's hands and AD cutting and setting screens off the ball.

    It also show a big upside for the big-big PNR for the future and it needs to be worked this summer because of its upside. With more work it could be the go to move of this team in the halfcourt moving forward.

    In transition since Cousins is useless while Davis is good, I think there should be strong emphasis on having Cousins as the primary defensive rebounder to throw outlet pass to AD. It should allow to create quick and easy points.

    Now let's take a look at our up-coming major free agent this summer :

    Holiday :
    Transition : 0.91 11.5% 19th
    Isolation : 1.05 7.5% 88th
    P&R ball handler : 0.81 50.7% 55th
    Post up : 0.67 1.3% 11th
    Spot up :0.92 11.4% 41th
    Handoff : 1.1 5.9% 86th
    Cut : 1.46 2.2% 88th
    Off screen : 0.83 2.5% 32th

    First of all, I was surprised how effective Holiday were on cut and iso while being average on PNR duty. It may come from the fact that the PNR is the major part of his offense, so opponents are more prepared to defend these situation but the fact that multiple other players on the team were better on this situation play explain why Gentry tested him at the 2.

    Anyway these number seems to suggest that Holiday is not the PG needed on the offensive side for this team since to take full advantage of AD skills this team need a good pick&roll ball handler.

    Given his lack of success as spot up threat, his only way to be effective off the ball is to move but unfortunately frequency of plays tends to show that he does'nt move enough to create opportunities off screen or from cuts.

    Now how to make this core work together ? By studying this number I would say there's basically two options : either find a great pick-and-roll handler to serve as the another ball handler or find more spot up threat to help space the PNR especially to give some space, especially to the promising big-big and also give more space for Jrue to operate while handling the ball. So why not try to combine both ?

    Here are some name of player for both option : Chandler, Gallinari, Lowry, N.Young, G.Hill, P.George, Bojan Bogdanovic, Seth Curry, Spencer Dinwiddie, Gordon Hayward, Norman Powell, Austin Rivers (not a joke).
    There's also the option De Colo or Teodosic from Europe.

    With the secound round pick the perfect fit seems to be Josh Hart, I truly hope to see him in a pelicans uniform next year.

  2. #2
    I wrote this about you Mr. West's Avatar
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    I don't have time to break down my comprehensive thoughts this second but I couldn't view this without thanking you for this ridiculously informed post.

    Quick thought: Sergio Rodriguez is a guy who doesn't get talked about much that could probably be had this off season that might fit well with the squad. As a FA, he is apparently a pick and roll guy with creative passing and shot a passable number from 3 point range.
    @DanielVeuleman

  3. #3
    Thank you for this information Blattman. Cousins numbers are interesting and these help to drive home the point that an off season together should really help these two. The potential is there for them to get really goos together.

    Let's also not forget that Cousins was suffering from an ACL strain most of the season that I think limited him in transition and basically any time he needed explosion. While he will never run like AD does, again rest and an off season should help.

    Jrue's numbers really drive home the point of a secondary ball handler and of course more outside shooting is always a good thing. Especially after we traded away so much of our guard depth and shooting in Gallo and Buddy.

    The mention of Seth Curry is a good one I hadn't thought about. He can play on or off ball and definitely brings that shooting stroke we could use. Defensively he would need to be hidden just like Frazier but there's potential there for sure.

    To throw another name into the hat that I don't see on your list, Batum. I've been saying his name for years but if Charlotte is going to blow it up and want to move on from his deal, I'd seriously look into it. His outside shooting hasn't been outstanding the last few years but he is such a good passer out on the wing and still could knock down a shot if needed.

  4. #4
    Now, THIS is a post. THIS is what message boards should be. I have always championed for exclusive message boards where only the elite can discuss, and in my book Blattman, you just earned your spot on that message board.

    Thank you for this. Now, to some of the others, try to be more like THIS guy!
    @mcnamara247

  5. #5
    The Franchise
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    Now, THIS is a post. THIS is what message boards should be. I have always championed for exclusive message boards where only the elite can discuss, and in my book Blattman, you just earned your spot on that message board.

    Thank you for this. Now, to some of the others, try to be more like THIS guy!

    lol smh..

  6. #6
    So the OP determined that Jrue is not a good fit as the point guard, based just on his pick and roll percentage. I am not convinced for a couple reasons. This data is not as relevant because it mostly represents games in an offense that didn't have Demarcus Cousins. I thought Jrue looked respectable towards the end of the season handling the pick and roll. More importantly Cousins was at his best running the pick and roll offense with AD (as noted in the OP). I think Cousins should be handling a good percentage of the pick and roll offense no matter who is the point guard.
    Last edited by hornetsrebirth; 04-20-2017 at 09:44 PM.

  7. #7
    A Soulful Sports Fan Contributor Eman5805's Avatar
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    I'm well impressed.

    I'm not a stat guy by any stretch, but it does really help keep me informed.

    Jrue is better in iso than you'd think and he's oddly very poor in transition.

    We need to get so much better at pick and roll.

  8. #8
    RIP BDJ AUSSIE_PELICAN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara View Post
    Now, THIS is a post. THIS is what message boards should be. I have always championed for exclusive message boards where only the elite can discuss, and in my book Blattman, you just earned your spot on that message board.

    Thank you for this. Now, to some of the others, try to be more like THIS guy!
    You have two accounts?

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by hornetsrebirth View Post
    So the OP determined that Jrue is not a good fit as the point guard, based just on his pick and roll percentage. I am not convinced for a couple reasons. This data is not as relevant because it mostly represents games in an offense that didn't have Demarcus Cousins. I thought Jrue looked respectable towards the end of the season handling the pick and roll. More importantly Cousins was at his best running the pick and roll offense with AD (as noted in the OP). I think Cousins should be handling a good percentage of the pick and roll offense no matter who is the point guard.
    Thank you for the answer. Honestly my point view regarding PG is pretty simple, if the guy can't be the ball handler in the PNR it shall be at least a threat as an off ball guard. So far Jrue isn't because his number as spot up are well below average (41th percentile of the NBA that's low for a guard) and his cuts and off screen shot frequency is not good enough. We need him to either be a dangerous option without the ball or to be good as the ball handler and currently he's not.

    Now we can discuss all day how is number are lowered by the predictability of the play book where most of his play are PNR but again if so I don't see him as clear fit as PG. The gap between him and Moore (0.89 20.6 71th) is a good starting point to see it in my humble opinion

    Regarding the list of players to target my method is simple, I look for players with PPP as PNR ball handler are in the 80th percentile of the NBA with frequency over 10% and with at least average 3 point shooting. So Mythrol, Batum didn't make the cut, I didn't look for his number but I guess he's not having a very effective season on the offensive side.

  10. #10
    I would sign Lowry over Jrue if we could get him. He's 31 and I don't care. He's a great 3 point shooter and he's clutch. Also, sign Korver if possible.


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  11. #11
    The Franchise pawel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blattman View Post
    De Colo,(...)Teodosic
    Both of them are gods in Europe.
    They will leave Europe only for a fat deal (Sergio Rodriguez type 10 millions/year) and a starting spot.

    Teodosic is great on offense, terrible in defense, but he is scouted all year by Brooklyn. Recently Marks and Atkinson visited him. Not always coach and GM visits a player. It means something.
    IMO Teodosic is gone to the Nets.

    I'd prefer De Colo.

    De Colo has a deal for 2 years. With about 4 millions dollars a year. Raptors still have his rights (he is virtually RFA)
    Teodosic earns around 5 millions dollars. And will be FA this summer. Expect Nets to offer him most. IMO Nets won't go after Jrue. they will take Mirza.

    P.S. Nice data BTW, Blattman...

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Blattman View Post
    Batum didn't make the cut, I didn't look for his number but I guess he's not having a very effective season on the offensive side.
    His 3pt shooting was only 33% this year (career 36% though)is . I suspect that is why he didn't show up on your list. I think part of the issue is in Portland he got a lot more chances at corner 3s 20%+ of his 3s every season. In Charlotte he has only gotten 10% last year and 9% this year from the corner.

    I'm even more impressed you found those stats with how slow and not well organized the NBA stats site is.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by AUSSIE_PELICAN View Post
    You have two accounts?
    ! It is soooo McNamara to anoint Himself as ELITE .. Its so AMUSING when one thinks that others care whether they receive ones adulations. MM has a mirror in every room, Guaranteed.
    Last edited by Tinman; 04-21-2017 at 11:17 AM.

  14. #14
    Nah, I got my IQ and Wonderlic scores posted in every room. Don't get me wrong, I am a good looking dude but it's my superior mind that I am most proud of

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Mythrol View Post
    His 3pt shooting was only 33% this year (career 36% though)is . I suspect that is why he didn't show up on your list. I think part of the issue is in Portland he got a lot more chances at corner 3s 20%+ of his 3s every season. In Charlotte he has only gotten 10% last year and 9% this year from the corner.

    I'm even more impressed you found those stats with how slow and not well organized the NBA stats site is.
    Yeah it's a real pain to use this mess of a website but There is so much data there it's infuriating to see such a waste. For exemple I wanted to see if the assessment of one previous poster about Jrue running better the PNR with Cousins' arrival was true but I couldn't find anyway To find the number post all star game.

    Regarding Batum, his PPP as pnr Ball handler are also pretty bad this year (and only average last year).

    Regarding Teodosic it will be hard given Brooklyn edge but for De Colo I think a 2 year deal with 5M per year and the promise of starting may be enough to entice him. I don't think the raptors still own his rights. It's like Josh Childress with the Hawks, I remember him playing one year in Europe to avoid to be RFA for them.
    Last edited by Blattman; 04-21-2017 at 01:36 PM.

  16. #16
    Where are you going to find the PPP stats? I spent awhile searching through their stats but it was absolutely terrible on my. IPad to try to use it.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Mythrol View Post
    Where are you going to find the PPP stats? I spent awhile searching through their stats but it was absolutely terrible on my. IPad to try to use it.
    http://stats.nba.com/players/ball-ha...gular%20Season

    Honestly the best way to reach this page is to search "nba point pick and roll" on google, rather than exploring the website.
    Last edited by Blattman; 04-22-2017 at 12:53 AM.

  18. #18
    The good news for the Pels is that they have the semblance of a balanced roster. There really isn't THAT much shaking up to be done. The rotation that worked really well in March is going to mostly stay in tact. I feel like our primary need is at point guard. Our depth chart, considering multiple position players, without Jrue clearly shows this:

    Boogie / AD / Ajinca
    AD / Cunningham / Diallo
    Hill / Cunningham / QPon
    Moore / Crawford
    ????? / Frazier

    We lack back court depth and I'm an E'Twaun fan and I'm ok with him starting and Crawford being 6th man. Our ONLY move this offseason is to get the right point guard. I honestly feel that the rest of the roster is fine. The growth of players like Moore and Hill will continue to grow next year with this team, and I love that both are defense first type guys.

    Our 2nd rounder should be spent on a SF who can shoot. Our cap space and 2018 pick should be used to go get a PG that we want. I love Jrue's game and I'm actually fine with him staying and playing PG if that is the best Dell and FO can do, that's fine.

    But if we have to replace Jrue we need a guy on contract for 3 more years or more, who is starting quality or can realistically grow into the role quickly, and is a guy that isn't considered core to the other teams future.

    I think moving forward our core is largely set. You can assess their advanced stats in many ways but the fact is those things should improve with stability and continuity. I think a minimal change off-season is in order. Focus on Jrue for under 20mil, if that isn't going to happen try and convince Benson going into Lux tax is worth it, if that doesn't work find someone who wants to shed salary and give them our 2018 pick and cap relief for a PG we can go forward with.

    Brandon Knight / Eric Bledsoe
    Reggie Jackson
    Jordan Clarkson
    Tyler Johnson
    Jeremy Lin

    All of the above I feel like Jrue is better than. But I don't want to keep Jrue if it costs us Boogie next offseason.

    I think our core is versatile, has youth and experience, is athletic, has decent shooters, can play defense and really is pretty much fine for next year. We just need to make the PG decision and trust that Boogie and The Brow will figure out their potential.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Blattman View Post
    http://stats.nba.com/players/ball-ha...gular%20Season

    Honestly the best way to reach this page is to search "nba point pick and roll" on google, rather than exploring the website.
    Thank you.

  20. #20
    Aaron's All Metro's Avatar
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    great post man
    SIGN A SF

  21. #21
    RIP BDJ AUSSIE_PELICAN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blattman View Post
    http://stats.nba.com/players/ball-ha...gular%20Season

    Honestly the best way to reach this page is to search "nba point pick and roll" on google, rather than exploring the website.
    Do you know how to filter so you can just compare PG or SG?

    I can only compare all players.

    Thanks

  22. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by AUSSIE_PELICAN View Post
    Do you know how to filter so you can just compare PG or SG?

    I can only compare all players.

    Thanks
    I would use the frequency as filter even if some players will be left out you can find some kind of positional filter like that. With Frequency over 30% there will be mostly PG and combo guard. If you want to be sure to have all PG, I think you have to chose >25% but there will be more other position in this case. For SG I would use filter between 15 and 30 in ferquency, again not perfect since there may would be some PG and some SF in the list.

  23. #23
    Great stuff man!

    I think these numbers really confirm what many of us thought during the season. Davis is great off the ball, but he can perform with the ball in his hands. Boogie is great on the ball, but he can perform off the ball too. The pairing obviously works on paper, and we saw glimpses of what it could be, but it just takes time and chemistry. I don't worry about them.

    I worry about our lead guard position. Jrue is a fantastic defender, and he is much better off the ball than he is on the ball, and the numbers back it up. I think the primary goal this off-season is to get a PnR ball handler who can facilitate the offense and get the ball to AD and Boogie at their spots. It will be very interesting to see how Dell plays it this off-season.

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