A little bit of info on K.J. Mcdaniels potential contract

[cmariaou]

Warning: There are a few things in here that rely on some understanding of the NBA CBA. If have something in here that doesn't make sense, just ask.

I see a lot of people talking about this kid but I couldn't find any in depth information about what kind of contract he could receive so I decided to do some research for myself. His situation is so unique I don't know how a front office exec will approach his value, but I think I understand how his agent might approach it. What I found is the following:

Mcdaniels agreed to the unguaranteed rookie min. last year (as opposed to a traditional 2 year partially guaranteed second round contract) because he felt he was worthy of a first round pick, and he believed he could prove his worth after 1 year in the NBA. That is exactly what he did in the early part of his rookie season before being traded to the Rockets. If we were to redraft 2014 today he likely would be picked somewhere between 7-10 regardless of the lack of playing time he received at the end of the year.

He would likely be drafted behind players like: A. Wiggins, E. Payton, M. Smart, Z. Lavine, J. Nurkic, D. Exum, J. Clarkson

And possibly drafted behind injured players like: J. Embid, J. Parker, J. Randle

So he can argue that his compensation should be somewhere in the range of picks 7-10 of the 2014 NBA draft. Here are those contracts at 120% of the rookie scale:

Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year Total Average
7 $2,997,360 $3,132,240 $3,267,120 $4,149,242 $13,545,962 $3,386,490
8 $2,745,840 $2,869,440 $2,993,040 $3,807,147 $12,415,467 $3,103,866
9 $2,524,200 $2,637,720 $2,751,360 $3,505,233 $11,418,513 $2,854,628
10 $2,397,840 $2,505,720 $2,613,600 $3,332,340 $10,849,500 $2,712,375

Based of this logic, and considering he was paid only $507,336 in year 1, he will be looking to make between $10,342,164 and $13,038,626 over 3 years or between $3,447,388 and $4,346,208 per year.

Considering any team that signs him is making the financial investment of a high lottery pick, it is likely that teams will be willing to offer him no more than a 2 year deal. The reason is because all veteran free agents with 3 or less years of service in the NBA, and not coming off rookie scale contracts, are subject to restricted free agency (pending a qualifying offer). And if his market demands him to be paid a high lottery pick salary, then most teams will want to retain his restricted rights in order to gain value from his second contract (3rd contract for him) in the same way they would with a traditional lottery pick.



However, there is another curve ball Mcdaniels throws at us here that makes things very interesting:

If Mcdaniels were to sign a 2 year contract with a NEW team and the Rockets don't match he will be an early-bird restricted free agent in 2017 just like he is right now in 2015. A restricted Early-Bird free agent able to make NO MORE than the MLE for the first 2 years of their contract. This is the same thing that Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik were involved in when the Rockets stole them from the Knicks and Bulls respectively in 2012.

This would mean that McDaniels can only make up to the MLE for the 2017 and 2018 seasons. Considering the risk that Mcdaniels has taken to maximize his earning potential it is unlikely he is willing to pidgin hole himself in that way. However, there are 4 ways for Mcdaniels to avoid this:

1) Sign a contract with the Rockets making him a Full-Bird restricted free agent in 2017

2) Have the Rockets sign and trade him to another team so that he can retain his accumulating Bird rights like in the last case

3) His new team could not extend his qualifying offer in 2017 making him an unrestricted free agent, but this is not good because it would mean he is not worth the investment.

4) He could play out his QO in 2017 and make his deal in essence a 2 year deal with a team option (QO would act as an option) and in 2018 he would be unrestricted.


_______________
I am interested in him as a player because he presents an opportunity to sign a player in free agency that has the perceived value of a TOP 10 lottery pick, and that is rare if not impossible. There is a reason the two biggest asset hoarders, Rockets and 76ers, have had his rights. Basically, he is like a mystical unicorn of NBA assets. And he has shown last year that he has the potential to develop a jump shot to compliment his defensive versatility and athleticism. Last year he graded out as the best RIM PROTECTING WING in the NBA, as a ROOKIE. I know that sounds weird, but imagine what kind of versatility you could have with him as a weak side shot blocker covering up a stretch 4 with poor defensive ability. I like him because if he does not develop that jump shot, he still has shown to posses NBA ready skills that can contribute now and be strengthened moving forward.

Thinking about the Pelicans and their opportunity to sign him I came up with a contract that I feel is relatively accurate to what Mcdaniels would need to receive to pry him from the Rockets.

- 2 years 8.18 mill, plus a 4.36 mill 2017 team option.

It would look like this:
2015/16- $4,000,000
2016/17- $4,180,000
2017/18- $4,360,000 (Team Option)

If option declined:
2017/18- $5,450,000 (Qualifying Offer)

This would allow the team to have an opportunity to retain his restricted rights, or keep him at a discounted rate for an extra season. And if Mcdaniels does see his option declined he will have the flexability to either receive a pay raise by signing the 1 year qualifying offer, and becoming unrestricted in 2018 as planned with the team option, or agreeing to a new contract that pays him up to the MLE for 2017/18 ($5,971,000) and 2018/19 ($6,150,000). Also, it would make him happy because he would receive a salary comparable to the 8th player drafted last year, and it helps us because that contract will look like peanuts when the cap rises and is a tradable asset in the future.

I think that the Rockets are likely to still match this contract, but if they were to attempt to clear cap space while trying to make a move in free agency this might do the trick.

[carpo]

Id love to take a punt on him. Perfect Gentry player

[Pelifan]

First off great work. Yea I'd offer that. If we timed the sheet right, I think the Rockets could let him go. My concern is can he become a consistent shooter. But it's worth the gamble.

[jprdbulldog20]

Decent first post

[Nola3]

Thank you for this. I've actually been wondering about his situation for a while because I think his is one of the most interesting free agent scenarios in recent memory. I would absolutely offer him that contract and not think twice about it.

[fullcourtpress]

Not often a team can sign a decent prospect and an elite athlete like him. If this can be done I'd undoubtedly do it

[lsutigers33]

You dig that all up yourself?bif you did, nice job.

I'll pass though

[AUSSIE_PELICAN]

Nice first post.....are you his agent?

I just can't see the Pel's paying most of the MLE on an unproven 22 year old player.
I think he is worth 3M tops.

[Alvis]

[B]If we were to redraft 2014 today he likely would be picked somewhere between 7-10 regardless of the lack of playing time he received at the end of the year.

He would likely be drafted behind players like: A. Wiggins, E. Payton, M. Smart, Z. Lavine, J. Nurkic, D. Exum, J. Clarkson

And possibly drafted behind injured players like: J. Embid, J. Parker, J. Randle

Actually, he would undoubtly be picked behind these 3. Ask their respective team if they want to swap and they will undoubtly laugh at you.
That means he would be picked at 11 at the earliest.

To be honest though, that's not where I consider your logic flawed. So let's see :

Pick 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year Total Average
7 $2,997,360 $3,132,240 $3,267,120 $4,149,242 $13,545,962 $3,386,490
8 $2,745,840 $2,869,440 $2,993,040 $3,807,147 $12,415,467 $3,103,866
9 $2,524,200 $2,637,720 $2,751,360 $3,505,233 $11,418,513 $2,854,628
10 $2,397,840 $2,505,720 $2,613,600 $3,332,340 $10,849,500 $2,712,375

Based of this logic, and considering he was paid only $507,336 in year 1, he will be looking to make between $10,342,164 and $13,038,626 over 3 years or between $3,447,388 and $4,346,208 per year.

Based of what logic? He was paid only 507k$ in year to become a free agent by his own choice there is no reason for a team to be willing to pay catch-up money for that year since he is worth a #11 pick on his second year. That means that what he should be offered is closer to $2,505,720 $2,613,600 $3,332,340 on a 3 year deal (which is what insight gives you as the fairest deal) so a lot less than what you said (and closer to the very important BAE).

That said, you did a great job looking at the player's POV (or his agent) as it appears clearly that he should never accept any BAE offers.
This means that any teams that wants to lure him will need to split their MLE (which already did not have a lot of value). This probably won't happen in the first couple weeks as most team will weigh their options and try to lure some sure value over potential.
Looking at it this way, it does seem to me that it is very likely that he will end up signing with Houston and not necessarily for that high of a price.

I do understand that KJM looks like an intriguing gamble that could end up a steal but are we really ready to gamble our MLE on a potential that still needs to prove that he can shoot? Some GMs might bite but is that what we need (and what Dell needs)? I honestly don't think so.

Edit : Food for thought though, considering that a team needs to split their MLE for him, it's more likely that they will offer him as much as they can (while keeping enough of the remaining MLE for what they want to use it for) than what they consider he is worth (like what we did for Stiensmsa).

[IamQuailman]

Holy crap. Nice first post

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

[geauxbama]

Houston is trying to shed cap space to get another big name. If we get him to sign an offer sheet early, Houston may not match.

[cmariaou]

I do not think the pels are In a position to invest in kj because we have a limited number of avenues to fill out the roster and this would consume one of the most significant. I just wanted to get a feel for the numbers that he would command.

I agree that he would be drafted at no higher than 11th, actually I feel he probably would be closer to 15th pick. Rodney hood, Doug McDermott, Arron Gordon, even Dario Saic, including others would be considered above him. My reason for selecting 7-10 is 2 fold. First, that he has a legitimate argument to be made that there were no more than 7 players who clearly outplayed him in their first year, and that includes the injured players because they saw a combined 26 games last year. And second, this over estimation was intended to factor in any competitive bidding between teams, he represents a very unique asset that any team would like have. I should have stated this and I appoligize for that.

Also, I feel strongly that the $507,036 is factored as a first year salary versus what he could have potentially earned as a top pick because of the inherent risk he assumed to give himself AND the bidding teams an opportunity to retain his services. In other words the argument made at a negotiating table is this:

"My client took a massive personal risk by passing on a deal that guaranteed him somewhere in the range of $500,000 to $1,000,000, as well as the security of a 2 plus year NBA contract. Instead, he signed a minimum contract with $0 guaranteed and no condolences. This risk has afforded your organization the opportunity to acquire a lottery talent without investing any high valued assets. The opportunity cost of acquiring my client is almost negligible in contrast to comparable players. My client wants to be compensated comparably to his peers over the course of a maximum rookie scale contract, and if you are not willing to offer such someone else will."

That's why his contract is gonna be a large portion of a teams MLE weather with the pels or not. I know he has to develop a jumper but his contributing skills right now on the defensive end and as a finisher are significant. I compare him well to a Corey Brewer; long athlete who is fantastic in transition, feisty versatile defender, and capable of shooting but without consistency. I honestly don't believd the risk is significant, but I think the opportunity cost is because of our acquisition limitations this offseason.

[Alvis]

I know he has to develop a jumper but his contributing skills right now on the defensive end and as a finisher are significant. I compare him well to a Corey Brewer; long athlete who is fantastic in transition, feisty versatile defender, and capable of shooting but without consistency. I honestly don't believd the risk is significant, but I think the opportunity cost is because of our acquisition limitations this offseason.

I find the comparison with Corey Brewer very interesting for a few reasons :
- They played in the same team last year
- They indeed do have comparable skill set at first sight.
- They both are going to cost you either full MLE or a significant portion of it (unless you are Houston).
- Corey Brewer was an integral part of the rotation and KJ Mcdanields was not especialy during the playoff.

The main difference is that Corey is what he has shown with some elite skills and flaws that aren't going away while KJ has the potential to have those elite skills (he is not there yet) and may well not have those flaws while being significantly smaller ... you do have to wonder though why he did not get his chances in Houston. Maybe they believed he needed more time to develop or maybe there is another underlying problem.
Either way having similar skill sets people would assume he would get more minutes to play.

Following this logic, I honestly believe that any team that is not in a rebuilding stage would rather go after Corey Brewer than KJ if the price is the same (and a 1M per year difference is nothing if it comes from the same exception).

I understand that his agent may use your argument to get his salary up but I don't think any competent GM will bite because of this.

As I said before though, at the end of the day there are 3 type of teams : Teams that are under the cap and can offer what they consider he is worth (likely rebuilding too), teams over the cap that will have to adapt to what they want to keep from the MLE and Houston.

I do agree with everything else you said btw

[Perth_Hornet]

Historic first post

[cmariaou]

Thank you all it was lots of fun. The complements are greatly appreciated

[Joe Gerrity]

Thank you all it was lots of fun. The complements are greatly appreciated

Not enough detail! Next time try harder.

I kid... great stuff

[Mythrol]

The saddest thing was this amazing first post was wasted on KJ McDaniels.

[cmariaou]

In light of that last post about kj I wanted to send this back into rotation.

[Alvis]

Checking back it seems that we do have 2.6M left on our MLE so we could actually offer what I deemed was his worth then.
Still, with all the big contracts being thrown around I would be surprised now that no other team would offer him more (probably rightfully so since the whole argument was not based on the salary cap expansion in the next few years).

[Eman5805]

Hope this all comes to fruition.

[PELICANSFAN]

I cannot see why Houston would not simply match a deal starting at $2.6 million.

[cmariaou]

Because it's a game being played where both teams are using only exceptions the numbers will not reflect his true market. I am writing about RFAs right now and how they are being abused in the market place, this is another example.

[pawel]

As mentioned in the Mason Ginsberg's twitter - Houston will match any reasonable offers

less than 3m is reasonable...

[cmariaou]

As mentioned in the Mason Ginsberg's twitter - Houston will match any reasonable offers

less than 3m is reasonable...

Yes and no. Yes they will if they can. but if they prioritize josh smith or his replacement over mcdanials and j smooth costs 2.9 mill or more then we can offer something less than 3 that they can't match

[pawel]

true
especially when they do not have bird rights

but we can pay only 2,6.
I am curious what they will pay to Josh. He is being paid by Detroit, so this does not matter him much.