What if we make no changes this off-season

[HoustonPelicans]

We all have asked for changes this offseason, from firing monty and/or dell to trading one of the big six for strength at another position. What if the best move is no move? Maybe this team is starting to find its identity and establish a culture.
This team is good at PG, great at SG, solid at SF, great at PF, and solid at C.
Jrue/Cole/Jimmer
Gordon/Reke
Qpon/Cunningham/Babbit
AD/Ryno
Asik/Ajina/Withey

What if we went through this off-season only resigining our players and getting healthy? Could this be a championship roster, when healthy, as currently constructed?

[N.O.Bronco]

No.

[N.O.Bronco]

To me it just lacks too much when you look at the competition we would be facing.

Our second best player(whether you think it is Ryno, Evans, Jrue or Gordon) would likely be a 3rd or 4th option at best on any of the other 8 teams competing for a spot in the West.

And I don't think this system of Monty's is built to maximize the potential of this roster on either side of the ball.

So i think you have a combination of problems with that roster: a fall off of talent from Davis to your number 2 guy, a poorly constructed system, a coach that is inferior to most of his competition on the way to a championship, cohesion issues, roster redundancy, high injury potential, lack of experience, lack of veteran and personnel leadership, lack of talent at arguably the most important position(sf).

[UNO Gracias]

Yeah, like NO Bronco says, the drop off from AD to whoever you want to call our #2 is a pretty sizable drop off. If your not going the Lakers, Heat, Bulls route, but the Spurs, Pistons, Rockets, Mavs route, you need a better coach than what we have now. This is not well enough to be left alone. You need to make more moves if you want to win, look at some of the more competitive rosters in the league, our roster isn't at the level of those guys.

[N.O.Bronco]

Yeah I'd say that at best this team - even with a moderately upgraded SF - has a peak at the second round of the playoffs.

[AUSSIE_PELICAN]

Personally I'd only like to add a starting SF with the MLE and our 2nd rounder.
Re-sign Asik, Ajinca and Babbitt with bird rights.
Re-sign Cunningham with Room exception and let this team play together for more than 50 games.

This teams biggest problem other than injuries is cohesion.

Holiday/Cole
Gordon/Evans/2nd Rounder
MLE/Q-Pon/Cunningham
Davis/Anderson/Babbitt
Asik/Ajinca/Withey

[NMThreeMVP]

I don't think it's as bad as N.O. Bronco thinks it is, or as close to a championship as HoustonPelicans thinks it could be.

For next year, I would consider moving on from DC, Withey, Fredette, and signing a SF that can give you 25 minutes a game.

I have no idea what to do with Asik. He is probably best in the role of 20 mpg defensive player, but I think he'll want more minutes and more money. I don't really want to pay $10m a year for a player that ideally gives you 10 minutes of true value per game, because he's so one demensional.

But I'm very happy to not take on any additional long term 8 figure salaries, and let Monty, Dell, Gordon, and Anderson expire heading into 2016 summer. If we stay healthy and make a playoff run, you have a great opportunity to assess it and add to it to keep the party going with the cap going up. If not you have a pretty nice blank slate for a new GM/coach with racks on racks on racks of cap room, a draft pick, AD locked up for 5 years, and Jrue and Tyreke with great cap numbers in the last year of their deals. We could potentially go into 2016 with the ability to have new regime build the championship roster they need for their system by adding multiple max players to AD, Jrue, and Reke.

[Mythrol]

I see the drop off between 1 and 2 as larger for us than other top 8s but I also think we have more guys who can be a 3 than other teams.

The question is can a 1-3-3-3 beat a 1-2-4? I think teams like The Clippers, Houston, and Portland all have bigger drops after their top 2. Our team feels a lot more like Spurs, Memphis, and Dallas. There's only 2 teams that when healthy I think have a solid 1-2-3 in the West. GS and OKC.

[MichaelMcNamara]

My first reaction is to say no, but then I think about how well this team can play against the best teams now and think, why not?

Honestly, the problem this year was the injuries and the inconsistency. The latter should improve as the guys get older and as they play together more.

Now, I would still like to add a SF like Dudley, Middleton, or Gerald Green and then go with what we have from there. But who couldn't we be better than? Probably Golden State, but who else? When fully healthy, we waxed Memphis at home the game before Jrue went down. We have owned Houston and SA this year. Portland has 4 major free agents this summer and isn't that far ahead of us. Dallas will be on their way down.

Why couldn't the top 3 next year be GS, OKC, and us if we stay healthy? And to me, that is a contender.

[NMThreeMVP]

Yeah, like NO Bronco says, the drop off from AD to whoever you want to call our #2 is a pretty sizable drop off. If your not going the Lakers, Heat, Bulls route, but the Spurs, Pistons, Rockets, Mavs route, you need a better coach than what we have now. This is not well enough to be left alone. You need to make more moves if you want to win, look at some of the more competitive rosters in the league, our roster isn't at the level of those guys.

Mavs and Pistons really got lucky. If they replay their championship runs through the playoffs and finals a hundred times, I don't think they come out on top more than 20% of the time. That's not a model any team should follow.

Rockets had 2 hall of fame, top 50 all time players. They're closer to Lakers, Bulls, Heat route than Pistons/Mavs. You can argue that Spurs also have had similar talent, unless you're being completely dismissive of Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. Oh, and Manu. And Khawi. And other really good role players over the years.

We don't necessarily need a Popovich, maybe the greatest coach of all time, to win a championship. We need luck, health, and at least one more superstar. That's what history tells us.

The Rockets are a great team for us to model. If you give the Pels and AD a Clyde Drexler type compliment to AD, we'll win titles with competent, not necessarily exceptional coaching.

[UNO Gracias]

The first Rockets title game without Drexler, and even when Drexler got there he had one foot in the grave. It was amazing outside shooting and Hakeem to win them that second title. Nobody is going to say Houston got the in his prime Drexler that the Blazers shipped off for a journeyman big.

I will agree with you about the Spurs though. I just think Spurs and then I think DR or Duncan before I think of Manu, TP, and now Kawaii. It's always great inside game with a great outside game.

I think we need to make moves if we want to compete. The Grizz are not the same Grizz we stomped earlier all thanks to the very trade that brought us QPon. They will be better next year. The Warriors will still be there. As long as Lillard and Aldridge are there, they will be above us. We still have work to do. A better coach would do wonders, but a tweak to the SF spot would help.

Would any of you move Ryno and Reke for Kawaii? Or, would any of you move some duo of our big 5 for a clear cut top 5 SF?

[N.O.Bronco]

My first reaction is to say no, but then I think about how well this team can play against the best teams now and think, why not?

Honestly, the problem this year was the injuries and the inconsistency. The latter should improve as the guys get older and as they play together more.

Now, I would still like to add a SF like Dudley, Middleton, or Gerald Green and then go with what we have from there. But who couldn't we be better than? Probably Golden State, but who else? When fully healthy, we waxed Memphis at home the game before Jrue went down. We have owned Houston and SA this year. Portland has 4 major free agents this summer and isn't that far ahead of us. Dallas will be on their way down.

Why couldn't the top 3 next year be GS, OKC, and us if we stay healthy? And to me, that is a contender.

I think the sticking point is "next year." I don't think it is realistic that a young team with no playoff experience, a frightening injury history and consistency and cohesion issues that will have less then 100 games of experience together(assuming perfect health) can really call itself a contender. We could maybe get a 3rd or 4th seed but I don't think we can realistically get past the second round when we likely face a battle tested playoff team for 7 games.

Maybe, maybe you squeak out of the second round but I don't think a first year playoff team with a inexperienced playoff coach is going to win the western conference. And to me a contender is someone that realistically has a shot do that.

[N.O.Bronco]

The first Rockets title game without Drexler, and even when Drexler got there he had one foot in the grave. It was amazing outside shooting and Hakeem to win them that second title. Nobody is going to say Houston got the in his prime Drexler that the Blazers shipped off for a journeyman big.

I will agree with you about the Spurs though. I just think Spurs and then I think DR or Duncan before I think of Manu, TP, and now Kawaii. It's always great inside game with a great outside game.

I think we need to make moves if we want to compete. The Grizz are not the same Grizz we stomped earlier all thanks to the very trade that brought us QPon. They will be better next year. The Warriors will still be there. As long as Lillard and Aldridge are there, they will be above us. We still have work to do. A better coach would do wonders, but a tweak to the SF spot would help.

Would any of you move Ryno and Reke for Kawaii? Or, would any of you move some duo of our big 5 for a clear cut top 5 SF?

In a heartbeat. Kawhi I am a little skeptical of but for a top 5 SF? Yeah, sign me up if I'm trading Ryno and Evans for him. But that would be like getting a guy like Paul George or Carmello Anthony who I don't think is realistic.

[UNO Gracias]

Yeah, I am thinking of packaging two core guys for a guy who will be a cornerstone next to AD (which I don't believe we have on this team).

[NMThreeMVP]

If we have Gordon and Anderson's $25m to spend, plus the increase in the cap to add new talent to AD, Jrue, and Tyreke in summer of 2016, I think that's when we become contenders.

I'll be very happy with that.

We're counting on AD being the G.O.A.T ...which means AD in the 2 years plus Jrue, Tyreke, and whoever we add over the next 18 months, should be better than Lillard/Aldridge, Curry/Clay, Paul/Blake, Gasol/Conley and even Durant/Westbrook.

[MichaelMcNamara]

I think the sticking point is "next year." I don't think it is realistic that a young team with no playoff experience, a frightening injury history and consistency and cohesion issues that will have less then 100 games of experience together(assuming perfect health) can really call itself a contender. We could maybe get a 3rd or 4th seed but I don't think we can realistically get past the second round when we likely face a battle tested playoff team for 7 games.

Maybe, maybe you squeak out of the second round but I don't think a first year playoff team with a inexperienced playoff coach is going to win the western conference. And to me a contender is someone that realistically has a shot do that.

VERY true. I guess it is about how we define the word contender? Were we a contender in 07-08? I mean, record wise we were. And we could have been SA, but we were never gonna win the title, for the reasons you laid out here. But I would still say that most would call us a contender that year. Guess it depends on how you define it.

For example, I would say the contenders this year are: GS, SA, OKC, Portland, Memphis, Atlanta, Cleveland, and Chicago - though I think GS, OKC, or Cleveland would win it 80 out of 100 simulations, so they are the true, true contenders IMO.

[speedyG]

No reason not to sign a SF really. There are muche better fits and players than Cunningham in FA

[johnpagenola]

To get at this I got the Hollinger stats as of Friday (before the Miami game) and added up the Estimated Wins Above Replacement for all 30 teams. This includes everyone on the roster of the team on pace to exceed 500 minutes whether or not they are currently injured. In rank order the data are:

Team EWA
LAC 43.8
GS 43.4
DAL 43.0
CLE 39.3
MEM 37.6
ATL 37.0
OKC 36.9
TOR 36.8
NO 35.9
CHI 35.4
PHX 35.2
POR 34.3
HOU 32.9
SA 32.6
MIA 31.7
WSH 27.8
DET 26.3
BOS 25.7
BKN 25.3
LAL 24.9
UTAH 24.6
MIL 24.4
SAC 23.3
ORL 22.1
CHA 21.1
IND 18.8
MIN 18.3
DEN 16.9
NY 12.6
PHI 8.4

We are 9th in this ranking. To be near the top we would need to add about 7 EWA net of who we give up. There are 40 such players. None of them was traded this season.

AD has an EWA of 16.6, so we drop (way) down without him. However, even if everyone were healthy it would seem to me that we need our current players to improve quite a bit or get some better players.

Of course, if you don't like EWA you could say this is all irrelevant.