Year to Year Comparison

[billfromfinance]

Hey guys, so I started putting this together on the weekend, finally got around to finishing it up and thought others would be interested. I didn't do this with any particular purpose bar comparing last year 32 games in for the Pelicans, and this year 32 games in. Hopefully the image inserts nicely.


There are a bunch of categories here, so to type out a rough definition for every one would be time consuming and I don't think it is needed. Rather, I'll add a couple that I think may not be straight forward on first glance, and then feel free to ask me about any that you want to confirm or are confused by.

1st Quarters W-L-T - The first quarter results of every Pelicans game 32 games into each season Win-Loss-Tie - The percentage is purely the Pelicans Win percentage for each quarter. So 2013/14 1st Quarter = 20 wins-12 losses-0 ties, win percentage 62.50%

Games Won Down 1st - The number of games Pelicans won when down after the 1st quarter, from the total number of games the Pelicans were down at the 1st quarter. The percentage is of this amount. So in 2013/14, of the 12 times the Pelicans were down at the 1st, they came back to win the game 2 times. This had the Pelicans sitting at a 16.67% chance of winning a game after losing the first quarter

OT Games - The total number of games in the first 32 that went into overtime.

Record v 2013 Top 8 - Our W-L record against the top 8 Western Conference teams of 2013/14 (this is the top 8 of the whole season, I did not work out the top 8 for the first 32 games of 2013/14).

Record v 2014 Top 8 - Our W-L record against the top 8 Western Conference teams of 2014/15 (as of Sunday night).

So for the above two, the Teams are basically - SAS/LAC/POR/HOU/GSW/MEM/DAL with PHX replacing OKC for this season.

*now, if people believe there is a mistake anywhere, please let me know, happy to correct any issues, I am not perfect

Summary

At this point, I don't know if there is really any major in depth analysis you can do that would really explain the nitty gritty of the two years performances. The rosters looked slightly different, and we had different injuries. What we can look at from a higher level purely numbers stand point and observe so far:

• We have won 1 game more, sitting at .500 despite having lost more quarters than we have won (the difference could be pointed at our two OT quarter losses compared to last years OT performances)
• Both our biggest win and loss scores have grown - though the loss is at least to a much better team this year
• We are winning games by smaller amounts on average, with 11 games by less than 10 points or less compared to 8
• We have not won as many games by a larger margin (greater than or equal to 11 points)
• Both of these category changes could be attributed to a tougher schedule (the Record v 2013 and 14 Top 8 Teams shows we have played the top 8 western conference teams more)
• We have lost more closer matches (losses by less than or equal to 10 points) BUT had fewer blow out losses - 6 compared to 8 (losses by 11 or greater), this is a good improvement considering the point around playing more top 8 WC teams
• We have not been as strong in the 1st and 4th quarters this year, but have improved our 2nd and 3rd quarter performances in compensation. This year is a much more balanced W-L result across the quarters
• We have improved our ability to come back from being down at 1st and 3rd quarters, and the half
• We are still in the game if we are up after the first, but are pretty money when we are up at the half and end of 3rd quarter
• same number of road games in the game span. We have had 2 more Back 2 Backs compared to this time last year.
• If we go to OT we lose. Last year we performed well in OT (CHI and DET).

OK so feel free to contribute, observations, error corrections, anything really. My brain and eyes hurt, and would love to hear what everyone thinks when comparing the two years first 32 games. I am also happy to hear recommendations on possible other categories I could add, or people would be interested to see.

**UPDATE** Latest Comparison Data 53 Games In

[Mythrol]

This is an amazing amount of work. Thank you for doing it. As you mention it might be too early to read too much into it is interesting to look at.

Basically we want us to win the 1st half. If we do we have a huge chance of pulling it through.

[Jabberwalker]

Awesome. I'm at work. Anyone want to give strength of schedule stats or opponent stats to that point? I'm really surprised by the lack of improvement. I would have guessed we were better in most categories based off of how well we've played but maybe had a tougher schedule this year but maybe I'm just seeing what I want to.

[MichaelMcNamara]

Biggest thing that stands out to me is the HUGE decline in our 1st quarter win percentage. Huge uptick in 2nd qtr win percentage.

Mason did a great job writing on it, and I agree. There has to be a change in our starting lineup. Hopefully Gordon comes back and helps that out.

[billfromfinance]

Awesome. I'm at work. Anyone want to give strength of schedule stats or opponent stats to that point? I'm really surprised by the lack of improvement. I would have guessed we were better in most categories based off of how well we've played but maybe had a tougher schedule this year but maybe I'm just seeing what I want to.

This year ESPN has our SOS at .528 (2nd), last year .512 (8th team overall, tied 4th place with 4 others)

[Caffeinedisastr]

The similarities are eerie,
especially since we nabbed Asik.

Maybe he didn't make as much of a difference as we'd hoped?

[billfromfinance]

This is an amazing amount of work. Thank you for doing it. As you mention it might be too early to read too much into it is interesting to look at.

Basically we want us to win the 1st half. If we do we have a huge chance of pulling it through.

Yeah, ideally I will update this at intervals during the course of the season. I wanted to create some sort of benchmark number wise to be able to compare to as we move forward.

Pretty interesting hey, of the 32 games so far, we have led at the half in 16 of them, and converted that to a win 13 times. As MM observed, we have upped our 2nd and 3rd, but drastically dropped the first. Masons article was a good one, but we just don't have much to change the lineup with haha.

Just as an FYI - Babbitt entered the starting lineup Dec 2 vs OKC and there have been 17 games since. For first quarters in that time - 8 Wins, 1 Tie, 8 Losses. Before he entered there were 15 games - 12 EG, 2 Rivers, 1 Miller, for a record of 5 wins, 0 ties, 10 losses. Neither an awesome mark, but thought I'd share as I wondered whether it had made any major difference with the change myself.

[NOEngineer]

I see solid improvement in the fact that the record is better despite a harder schedule and less luck in OT. I expect the comparison after the next third will not even be close, as we play some more bottom-8 teams and Holiday plays instead of being injured. If Anderson rounds back into form and we stay healthy the difference could be even more striking.
The loss of Aminu from the starting lineup is not properly appreciated by NOLA fans, but Asik has essentially replaced his production and better complemented AD. Our current SF crop has replaced Stiemsma's lack of production.

[Mythrol]

Yeah, ideally I will update this at intervals during the course of the season. I wanted to create some sort of benchmark number wise to be able to compare to as we move forward.

Pretty interesting hey, of the 32 games so far, we have led at the half in 16 of them, and converted that to a win 13 times. As MM observed, we have upped our 2nd and 3rd, but drastically dropped the first. Masons article was a good one, but we just don't have much to change the lineup with haha.

Just as an FYI - Babbitt entered the starting lineup Dec 2 vs OKC and there have been 17 games since. For first quarters in that time - 8 Wins, 1 Tie, 8 Losses. Before he entered there were 15 games - 12 EG, 2 Rivers, 1 Miller, for a record of 5 wins, 0 ties, 10 losses. Neither an awesome mark, but thought I'd share as I wondered whether it had made any major difference with the change myself.

That is a VERY interesting stat when the general idea floating around right now is that Babbitt has hurt us in the 1st. What your numbers show is that he has actually helped improve it.

This goes directly against the current held view of Babbitt. It seems the issue is more with the team than with an individual player. I've never been a fan of using +/- which is why I didn't put a huge amount of faith in Mason's article that Babbitt was the issue.

This seems to point to other issues. Of course with the natural Small Sample size disclaimer.

[pelicanchamp]

I want to see EG in the starting lineup. Possibly with Reke staying too. I am curious what Gordon averages in the first quarter as a pelican. It seems like overall he scores early in games.

[CMS1717]

That is a VERY interesting stat when the general idea floating around right now is that Babbitt has hurt us in the 1st. What your numbers show is that he has actually helped improve it.

This goes directly against the current held view of Babbitt. It seems the issue is more with the team than with an individual player. I've never been a fan of using +/- which is why I didn't put a huge amount of faith in Mason's article that Babbitt was the issue.

This seems to point to other issues. Of course with the natural Small Sample size disclaimer.

I'm not a Babbitt fan but I think he should get more touches. Whatever side he is on it appears that 75% of the time the flow is away from him. He needs about three more shots when he is in there. I'm not sure but is there a way to see his touches in the wins verse the lost?

[Pelicantoo]

I'm going to add a little wrinkle, something I've noticed and that gives me optimism.

IN this span of 2013, We played 7 B2b's, 2 HOME, 5 AWAY (0 four in five night stretches). We went 3-4 (1-1, HOME -- 2-3 AWAY)

So far this season, We've played 9 back-to-backs (including two 4 in 5 night stretches) We've gone 5-4 (1-0 HOME -- 4-4 ROAD)

Historical Winning % for HOME/ROAD or ROAD/ROAD b2b's is around 35%.

Portland's played 6 b2b's (5-1, notable bad teams PHL, MIN, IND)
Phoenix went 2-6 in 8 B2b's
Houston went 4-3 in 7 b2b's (UTA, MIL)
LAC went 6-2 in 8 back-to-backs (LAL, UTAx2, CHA, MILx2)
SA went 6-5 in 11 b2b's (BKN, PHI, MIN, NYK)

[billfromfinance]

I see solid improvement in the fact that the record is better despite a harder schedule and less luck in OT. I expect the comparison after the next third will not even be close, as we play some more bottom-8 teams and Holiday plays instead of being injured. If Anderson rounds back into form and we stay healthy the difference could be even more striking.
The loss of Aminu from the starting lineup is not properly appreciated by NOLA fans, but Asik has essentially replaced his production and better complemented AD. Our current SF crop has replaced Stiemsma's lack of production.

You should be right, as long as things go how they SHOULD in our minds haha. Realistically, last season, the next 32 games were terrible. Injuries killing us. we Lost 21/32 games, with two big 8 game losing streaks. One would think it reasonable we could finish above .500 in the next 32 games, looking at the schedule, and the team being healthy.

[billfromfinance]

Updated the initial post with the latest data - is at the bottom if you missed it. we really need to win our first quarter, we are not good at coming back from a first quarter deficit.